Thursday, September 29, 2016



SUING SAUDI……… WAS THIS THE RIGHT DECISION?


I must admit, I wasn’t that surprised when the story broke. I also wasn’t surprised the US mainstream media was more interested in the fact that President Obama had been vetoed and not cognizant of what the repercussions of this decision may be.
So, let’s take a look at what the repercussions might be and yes, there will be repercussions.
First off, there is a reason the US President was against this law and that in itself should have been a warning sign. You, see, President Obama is not exactly on the Saudi most favored leader list. His actions in the region for the past eight years have almost singlehandedly driven a wedge between the US / West / and Saudi. Now, I know, some in the US truly believe this relationship with Saudi has outlived its usefulness. Many here believe the relationship was a marriage of convenience based on oil and that was true from day one! Well, it was and is and the resentment for that being the pillar of the two countries’ interaction is felt on both sides. “If it wasn’t for our oil, the US would not care about Saudi”. That is what you will hear if you have the opportunity to speak to the general public in Saudi.
A relationship built on oil and the access to a region based on oil, oil that couldn’t be allowed to fall into Soviet / Communist control. Yes. The relationships in the Middle East were tools for the Cold War and again, every member in the region understood this.
Okay, back to the issue of the US president’s veto. So what is it the President is privy to that made him fearful of this law? Why would he care given his actions have said, “I’m leaving you”, for the past seven years? Remember those intelligence reports I was addressing last night? Think about it for a minute. At some point in time, the US President may have said, “what happens if this law passes”? What answer was given that made him risk the embarrassment of an overturned veto? How bad of a threat could that be? Here a just a few scenarios and every one of them is more than possible.
Taking oil off the dollar standard:
               Something the Dragon and the Tsar have been contemplating for several years now. What     impact would this have on the US economy? Most predict it would be dramatic. Would this risk the overall economic status of the Dragon and the Tsar? Yes. Would it be worth the risk? That       depends on what the desired end-state is. How could this new law put that movement into        motion? Rumor has it the only descending vote to move oil off the dollar standard has been      Saudi. Is it because they are loyal to the US? No. It’s because a large proportion of their                investments are based on the dollar. Does this vote by the US change the Saudi mindset? If            intelligence indicates that, then you may now understand why the President was pushing back.
Realignment of regional partners:
               The Saudi military is almost completely dependent on the US military and the manufactures of               US military hardware. How hard would it be for the Saudi’s to move away from the US military             support? Hard! Might they truly start the wheels in motion after all that has happened between    them and the US in the past seven years? Ports of call for the Dragon and the Tsar, is that what              the President was told? Some of that has already taken place, but at a level that is nothing more than eye candy. Could this law be a final blow to the fragile relationship between the US and   Saudi militaries? So, how many BILLIONS do you think the US defense contractors are willing to                give away for the sake of a few families being able to sue Saudi? Sound harsh? Yes, but when it comes to Billions of dollars and US military manufacturing, harsh is an acceptable word. By the            way, how stunned was the US when a much closer partner, a key NATO partner, said “no” to      using its land to invade Iraq? Yes. Things can get that bad. Yes, times change and sometimes the       “change” is not anticipated.  
Turning up the heat, support, in the Syrian conflict:
               Why have the weapons that could dramatically change the image of Russia Air Force being     dominant in Syria not showed up? Why have these weapons not showed up in the hands of the    Sunni fighters that Saudi and “others” support? What would the US President do if he learned that Saudi was contemplating letting these weapons move because they have lost all hope of                the US / West / supporting the nations in the region that were supposed to be friends? Who      takes the blame when suddenly it becomes clear the support for the Sunni fighters has changed       and how does the US President explain to the American people why this change is taking place?   Does he get on TV and say, “I told you so”?
Alright; I could go on and on, but let me make one thing perfectly clear. President Obama is not in good standing with Saudi leadership, most importantly the likely next King. The Saudi “2030” plan is not a dream based on dependency! It is not a concept that was shown to DC for approval. It is an attempt to stave off civil strife and that will require an economy not based on oil. The US relationship with Saudi is completely based on oil.
Does Saudi really still need the US? The US feels it no longer needs Saudi and so today, a law was signed.
What comes next? My hunch is the US will not have to wait too long to find out.

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