SUING SAUDI……… WAS THIS THE RIGHT DECISION?
I must admit, I wasn’t that surprised when the story broke.
I also wasn’t surprised the US mainstream media was more interested in the fact
that President Obama had been vetoed and not cognizant of what the repercussions
of this decision may be.
So, let’s take a look at what the repercussions might be and
yes, there will be repercussions.
First off, there is a reason the US President was against
this law and that in itself should have been a warning sign. You, see,
President Obama is not exactly on the Saudi most favored leader list. His
actions in the region for the past eight years have almost singlehandedly
driven a wedge between the US / West / and Saudi. Now, I know, some in the US truly
believe this relationship with Saudi has outlived its usefulness. Many here
believe the relationship was a marriage of convenience based on oil and that
was true from day one! Well, it was and is and the resentment for that being the
pillar of the two countries’ interaction is felt on both sides. “If it wasn’t
for our oil, the US would not care about Saudi”. That is what you will hear if
you have the opportunity to speak to the general public in Saudi.
A relationship built on oil and the access to a region based
on oil, oil that couldn’t be allowed to fall into Soviet / Communist control.
Yes. The relationships in the Middle East were tools for the Cold War and
again, every member in the region understood this.
Okay, back to the issue of the US president’s veto. So what
is it the President is privy to that made him fearful of this law? Why would he
care given his actions have said, “I’m leaving you”, for the past seven years?
Remember those intelligence reports I was addressing last night? Think about it
for a minute. At some point in time, the US President may have said, “what
happens if this law passes”? What answer was given that made him risk the embarrassment
of an overturned veto? How bad of a threat could that be? Here a just a few scenarios
and every one of them is more than possible.
Taking oil off the
dollar standard:
Something
the Dragon and the Tsar have been contemplating for several years now. What impact would this have on the US economy?
Most predict it would be dramatic. Would this risk the overall economic status of the Dragon and the Tsar? Yes. Would
it be worth the risk? That depends
on what the desired end-state is. How could this new law put that movement into
motion? Rumor has it the only descending
vote to move oil off the dollar standard has been Saudi. Is it because they are loyal to the US? No. It’s because a
large proportion of their investments
are based on the dollar. Does this vote by the US change the Saudi mindset? If intelligence indicates that, then you
may now understand why the President was pushing back.
Realignment of
regional partners:
The
Saudi military is almost completely dependent on the US military and the
manufactures of US military hardware.
How hard would it be for the Saudi’s to move away from the US military support? Hard! Might they truly
start the wheels in motion after all that has happened between them and the US in the past seven years? Ports
of call for the Dragon and the Tsar, is that what the President was told? Some of that has already taken
place, but at a level that is nothing more than
eye candy. Could this law be a final blow to the fragile relationship between
the US and Saudi militaries? So, how
many BILLIONS do you think the US defense contractors are willing to give away for the sake of a few
families being able to sue Saudi? Sound harsh? Yes, but when it comes to Billions of dollars and US military manufacturing,
harsh is an acceptable word. By the way,
how stunned was the US when a much closer partner, a key NATO partner, said “no”
to using its land to invade Iraq?
Yes. Things can get that bad. Yes, times change and sometimes the “change” is not anticipated.
Turning up the heat,
support, in the Syrian conflict:
Why have the weapons that
could dramatically change the image of Russia Air Force being dominant in Syria not showed up? Why have
these weapons not showed up in the hands of the Sunni fighters that Saudi and “others” support? What would the US
President do if he learned that Saudi was
contemplating letting these weapons move because they have lost all hope of the US / West / supporting the nations
in the region that were supposed to be friends? Who takes the blame when suddenly it becomes clear the support for
the Sunni fighters has changed and
how does the US President explain to the American people why this change is
taking place? Does he get on TV and say,
“I told you so”?
Alright; I could go on and on, but let me make one thing perfectly
clear. President Obama is not in good standing with Saudi leadership, most
importantly the likely next King. The Saudi “2030” plan is not a dream based on
dependency! It is not a concept that was shown to DC for approval. It is an attempt
to stave off civil strife and that will require an economy not based on oil. The
US relationship with Saudi is completely based on oil.
Does Saudi really still need the US? The US feels it no
longer needs Saudi and so today, a law was signed.
What comes next? My hunch is the US will not have to wait
too long to find out.
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