IRAN'S TROUBLE WITH THE SYRIAN CONFLICT:

Now, the Good Lord knows The Turkish news media, World Bulletin, has little in common with The Jerusalem Post and it's for that very reason I found the attached two news stories more than interesting.

Admittedly these two stories have a different "twist" on what took place this weekend, but the fact of the mater is, some, like me, are once again wondering about the political stability of Iran.

Everyone knows their leaders have long feared the repercussions of the Arab Spring and the suppressed youth of Iran.

A great example was the pathetic way they tried to lay claim to the Arab Spring as if the whole process was part of some grand Iranian plan.

Much like how poor old Omar Gaddafi attempted to march in the streets of his own capital protesting the "injustices"  of the Libyan government.... look what that got him?

Typically, appeasement arrives too little and too late to save tyrannical leaders.

In Iran's case, the most recent election is seen by some as a unplanned, I say unplanned given I am confident their leaders had no wish for Rouhani to actually win, attempt to "appease" the majority movement in their land......... the moderates!

So, If Rafsanjani has truly made pubic his belief Assad ordered the chemical attacks on his own people or worse yet, stood by and let the Iranian / Hezbollah Commanders in Syria gas Syrians, then we can not help but see this as a very troubling sign for the Puppet Masters in Tehran.

The fact that ILNA posted this story and then changed it, is just another sign all is not well in Iran.

So, why would this be important right now, given all that is taking place in the region?

Let me answer that question with a question.

What has been the primary logic behind holding off on attacking the Iranian nuclear program?

Yep!

The fact some truly believed and still believe Iran's real enemy is it's internal social unrest.

Is this story of Rafsanjani yet another hint of what is really keeping the Puppet Masters up at night?

My hunch is it's doing far more than just keeping them up at night.

As I have said time and time again;  Iran's current leaders cannot afford the loss of it's proxy fighters, Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad.

Just how desperate Iran may become is predominantly base upon just how concerned it's leaders become with disunity in the ranks of it's society.

Remember, the breaking point for Iran is still Hezbollah and the breaking point for Hezbollah is it's families coming under unrelenting attacks in Lebanon.

Is Assad desperate enough to once again utilize WMDs?

In my opinion, this is the wrong question.

The true issue revolves around just how desperate Iran becomes?

A vote in the US House will be the issue over the next week, but the words of a once Iranian President, a very popular one at that, well.... that is critical indictor of where the whole region is heading.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116706

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Sources-Internal-dissent-in-Iran-rising-over-the-growing-Syria-turmoil-325118

THE CONFLICT OVER SYRIA HAS ALREADY STARTED!

As I sit here tonight fully intending to discus the issue of "pending" conflict in Syria, I couldn't help but get completely sidelined by what I consider a simply outrageous statement from the so called " Arab League".

So, the Arab League is urging Western intervention in the Syrian conflict?

I have one simple but ever so logical question for my friends of the Arab League!

How many troops are you willing to send?

What combat units are activated and prepared to launch combat operations inside of Syria?

Are you ready to initiate hostilities with the Persians if they attack the Western forces your a demanding?

I think we all know the answer to my somewhat flipped question.

Just so I can catch my breath and lower my blood pressure, let me make this as simple as possible.

Where is your "SKIN" in the game?

If you don't intend on doing so, and we all know you do not, then please sit back in your golden laced estates and figure out what sports car you are going to buy next!

It's not news that I am not a fan of the Boy's Club nicknamed the Arab League, but  I must admit they did once again manage to stir my blood with this arrogant statement.

Now, I will  gladly eat my words if I see just one picture, one you tube clip, of a Saudi F15 tail-flash flying over Syrian airspace!..

Oh and yes.. Please don't feed me that worn out statement of, "The West would prefer that we not be involved"!!! Weak..... is an understatement!

Ok, lets get back to what I really intended on talking about tonight.

For over 24hrs now, all the talk has focused on the US's decision to delay actions in Syria.

How much damage to the US's international accreditation has taken place?

What will Assad and his Masters think of this event?

How about the Tsar?

Let's drive past those issues for the moment and take a better look at 21st century warfare tenets that are being overlooked.

Often, I have spoken to the issue of the power of social media and the reality of perception being the core of good governance.

In the past 24hrs it is undeniable the perception of the person on the streets of the Middle East believe the West has lost it's will to stand up to injustice.

A few carefully placed words may appease the populace of Western nations, but the average  person in the Middle East tonight sits and wonders what the future holds?

All the talk of how this change in heart / plans, might impact the Iranian weapons program dominates the people of Israel.

 The people of Lebanon now must wonder how much longer until the next act against Hezbollah takes place with the sole intention of forcing them to return to the new battlefront......Lebanon!

Tonight, leaders on both sides of the Syrian conflict are changing plans based upon "Perceptions" and the public information campaign is in full swing.

Just look at the words of the Iranian government in the past 24hrs and stack the scripted press announcements from Assad's government on top.

Yes, the conflict in Syria for the West has been underway for sometime now, but it seems some are just now beginning to understand what that means.

Conflict / War is the end state of diplomatic failure!

War is not simply the act of kinetic weapons.

Who is wining the "War  / Conflict" as of today?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Sep-02/229603-arab-league-urges-west-to-act-against-syrian-regime.ashx#axzz2dgjNszHG

SYRIAN OPTIONS... IT JUST GETS HARDER AND HARDER!!

By now, just about everyone has heard the news of the US President deciding to consult the US Congress prior to possibly taking action in Syria.

The immediate questions from the media types were as expected.

" How does this make the US look to our Allies and our Enemies"?

" Does the US President appear to fumbling the international arena football"?

I have no interest in talking to the internal politics of the US government and so I will stick to issue of  how this might impact those it really maters to; the people and governments of the Middle East.

Let's assume the Rebels in Syria had a plan for taking counter actions soon after the Western strikes took place, regardless of what level of intensity.

If you have been following my post, you will remember a few months ago with Assad's great counter strike initiatives began and how I stated his plan was to secure his slice of Syria he would fall back to after the collapse of his government.

I had predicted the battle for Aleppo would be the failure point for Assad and his Masters in Tehran and with that failure the Assad government would crumble.

I can assure you, I am not the only one who held and still holds this theory.

The Rebels, all factions of them, have known from the beginning of the Assad push, they simply had to hold on and wait for the right moment in time to counterstrike.

I can also assure you that soon after the events of 21 Aug, the Rebels anticipated Western intervention at some level and at that moment in time, their counterstrike events would begin to take place.

For the past week, the rumors of pending attacks by the US and it's Allies fueled the Rebels, both the almost good ones and the real bad ones, plans for Assad's fall.

It was going to start this weekend and most likely Saturday night!!!!

Well........ Now what????

From a tactical standpoint, if you have moved forces into positions for a pending operation and it now appears that pending operation is delayed for weeks or may not happen at all, then what do you do?

How embolden are your enemies when all they have been doing for over a week is panicking as they try to hide vital instruments of their government, and suddenly they discover their doom has been delayed or better yet............called off?

Those who oppose Assad, and not all of them were in favor of US involvement, have once again been, "betrayed" by the West.

Is "betrayed" a accurate definition of what took place today?

It depends on who you are asking.

So, the long anticipated and probably coordinated "counterstrike" may or may not have the opportunity to take place.

Can Assad and his Master's proxy fighters, Hezbollah, go back to the task of figuring out a plausible siege plan for Aleppo?

Has this week long paranoia of, "The US is coming... The US is coming" depleated the plans for the assault on Aleppo?

You bet they did.

Did this anticipated strike by the West change the Rebel's plans for defending Aleppo?

You bet they did!

As you sit and ponder what today's announcement means to the people on both sides of the Syrian Civil War, add this question to your list?

What did today's decision by the US President mean to the GCC?

You know.. the same GCC that wants Assad and the Muslim Brotherhood and anyone else who would threaten their Monarchies gone!

Perhaps Saudi F15s and Destroyers will take on the mission?

Insert laughter here!!!!    

Last but I can guarantee you not least... what did today's events mean to the Tsar?

 For three years now, I have preached the power of perception in a world ruled by Social Media.

Today's events will shape and change perceptions on all sides.

What will it lead to?

Good question.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/syrian-opposition-plans-for-after-the-military-strike

PENDING ACTION ON SYRIA... CONFIDENCE BY THE PUPPET MASTERS.

If you would have asked me as late as yesterday about Iran's possible reaction to pending, may not pending now, Western actions in Syria, I would have told you not to worry.

Well, today, I am not near as confident I could stick with that answer.

I'm still willing to stick by my assessment of Iran not wishing to risk conflict over Syria and at the same time not willing to expend Hezbollah capital beyond a certain point.

As I started to read more and more comments coming from some who really understand the region, I began to realize I may have to reevaluate what Iran is willing to risk.

It's still true the Persians intend to keep the majority of Hezbollah's capabilities for any future conflict with Israel.

It's also true Hezbollah comprehends what is now at stake for them in Lebanon.

So, lets go back to a basic premises I spoke of well over two years ago.

Would Iran be willing to push the region to war over Syria?

I was in the camp of those who believed the Persians could not accomplish their master plans with the pending loss of both Syria and Hamas and so when the final status of Syria became an issue, they would do whatever they had to.

Then as time went on, I convinced myself Assad's Masters might just live with a Syria in crisis... a crisis that would still allow Hezbollah to operate near the Lebanese's border.

Here is the problem and it's a huge problem.

The evidence of what Iran is willing to do and not do is growing more scrambled with each passing day.

So, yesterday when key figures in the Iranian government began to speak of the perils of Western actions on Syria, the " what are they willing to do" question rose to the top of the stack once again!

As the rest of the world began to question Iranian resolve, the UK government added a totally new variable.

A "NO" vote on conflict!

Now, does that mean the pending Western attack is not going to take place?

The answer must be given by two different groups.

A: Those who are in the region both for and against Assad.

B:  Those in the West who are truly on the fence for supporting the plan.

How does Iran and Assad perceive this decision?

How does Iran not interpret this pull back as a sign the West really doesn't want to walk into yet another open-ended conflict?

Why would the West believe that danger is there?

How timely were Iran's statements?

If the region was not confusing enough,  the events of the past 24 hrs have made them nearly impossible to comprehend.

It's more than obvious the region is growing more complex by the hour and even more importantly far more dangerous.

So, as of the 29th of Aug, what is the overall picture / forecast?

To me, it shapes up like this.

For reasons nobody can really put their definitive finger on, the  Assad Camp decided to increase the tensions in the entire region and do so in  a dramatic fashion.

Just as the West seemed poised to act on events they now claim are "unacceptable", the Alliance of the West seems to have faltered!

Now, the question becomes, does this possible delay on the Western action provide a valuable slice of time to come back to the table, or has Assad and his Masters suddenly gotten exactly what they wanted....... a crack in the Western resolve?

Did the chemical event do exactly what it was designed to do?

Did it expose the West's aversion to conflict?

Someone needs to ask the Tsar, for you see, that's who I believe is pulling the strings at this moment in time.

Confidence... If that is what Assad's Masters are feeling tonight... I would warn them to pay close attention to the little country stuck between  Lebanon and Syria.... for you see... they are more than capable of destroying that ill-conceived confidence!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97797d0a-1095-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dOnXgOEo

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116413

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nownews/hezbollah-mobilizing-troops-in-southern-lebanon

"COMPELLING" WHO SETS THE DEFINITION?

The number of self-proclaimed experts on the topic of actions in Syria is growing at a predictable rate.

What will happen?

How will it happen?

What impact will it have?

What might be the consequences?

Everyone one of these questions has just been beat to death in the past four days.

Let me review a general sample of what the answers have been and you can decide what makes sense and what is nothing more than someone trying to pay their bills by talking on TV.

"It wouldn't stop Assad's ability to continue to utilize WMDs"?

True.

If someone tells your for over a week they are coming to destroy you house, do you not have time to move the items you are most concerned with?

Yep!

Having said this, there is a "upside" to this tactic.

If you don't know where something is located, but you think you can trick your opponent into taking an action to protect the given target, then you might be able to actually target the issue! 

 This is an old trick that has worked time and time again in the past.

" This is not going to result in 'Regime Change'"!

Now, I have to admit, I just love this comment and given how many "experts" have said it in the past few days, well that makes it even more delightful to address.

So, what magic, crystal ball do these "experts" have that makes them stand on this theory, other than their party politics?

How does anyone outside of Assad's inner circle and his Masters know truly gage his level of control?

Let me put it to you this way, when action is taken and the intent of the action is not to create another possibly more adverse action, that doesn't mean it will work!

Remember the golden rule of conflict; the law of unintended consequences.

It's understandable some of the Western powers tried to make it very clear the pending action was not based on Regime Change, but as I said three days ago, that all depends on the perceptions of the other side.

If Tehran and Assad believe Regime Change is the desired result, then what the Western enemies declare prior to the event is irrelevant.

" A simple  limited actions media event will not have any real impact on Syria"!

Back to my comment above; how much risk do you assume when you assume "nothing will happen"?

Remember, whatever action is taken, the other side gets a vote!

All in all, these three core comments seem to be shaping the day to day media, at least until they have an actual event they can cover.

What the past five days have been successful in accomplishing is apx a 250 point drop on the US economic markets... ah yes.. the law of unintended consequences begins even before the first bomb is dropped.

Tomorrow, I will go into my version of what this event might look like at the tactical level and what actions it may lead to.

Let me leave this conversation with one basic principle I shared with a coworker yesterday.

When one side of a conflict makes the statement of "compelling" everyone who might be impacted on both sides and even the neutral parties needs to realize the word, "compelling" is defined by all camps.

If a "limited strike" is needed based upon "Compelling events" then the reaction by the opponent will most likely be "Compelling"!

Oh ya, one last tenant of Warfare to leave you with.

"Hit the Enemy where they are not"!

STRIKES ON SYRIA "LOOM"??? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

It appears just about everyone is convinced that some level of action is going to take place sometime in the near future.

It is also very evident no one really comprehends what reactions may come from a "strategic / limited / show of force, you call it what you want.

As I stated yesterday, it's going to be a hard sell to convince Tehran and Damascus any action is not based on the classic, Regime Change concept.

What did finally pop up today was the valid question of, "what if the results of the actions lead  the fall of Assad"?

The level of planning I can assure you is intense, but the level of anticipated reaction... well that is almost always the unknown delta of the process.

As we witness the apparent preparation for some level of conflict in Syria and honestly possibly in the region, we cannot forget the gold rule... the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Most military planners worth their weight in salt will always develop COAs, Course of Action, that address  the targeted enemy not adhering  to the unwritten rule of proportionality.

Now that the Secretary of  State for the US has spoken, we need to watch the next 24 hrs to see just what level of verbal response Assad and his Master's respond with.

That will set the stage for just how serious this pending event could become.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Aug-27/228814-us-strike-on-syria-looms.ashx#axzz2d7O9bvJl

THE "REDLINES" EACH SIDE HAS THEM.

As predicted, the rumors of pending "outside" actions over the Syrian conflict grew dramatically in the past two days.

Given the fact we all have far too much to digest over this issue, lets stick to a few simple facts in the hopes these will act as guidelines for possible actions.

FACT:

Assad's control in Syria is one disastrous event away from failure.

International actions, even limited actions, could and probably will push Assad to the state of collapse.

Any plans of assaulting Aleppo and securing a victory over the rebels would be all but lost.

Simply put, Assaad's grip cannot withstand even a "limited" response and that limited response would most likely tip the scales!

FACT:

Assad's handlers have shown they will go to great lengths to keep him in power.

Remember, there is no way he came up with the Chemical attack scenario of a few days ago without permission and support.

The Persians and the Tsar would never interpret a "limited" strike response as anything other than the initial stages of "Regime Change"... something the West has a history of in that region.

Simply put; no one on the opposing team is going to see "limited" as "limited"!

FACT:

Assad has been in a position of non-control for well over a year now.

His Masters run the show in Syria and all of those around him know it.

If the chemical attack was not his idea, and he is not given a vote on how to deal with the fallout, then how paranoid must he be right now?

What is he capable of with or without his Master's consent?

Just asked Jordan, Turkey, Israel.......

Simply put; Assad as the real leader of Syria has reached the point that not only can he not retain control of his country, but those who plotted to use chemical weapons against the people of Syria could easily let him hang for the event and settle with Syria's version of Lebanon in the 80s.

FACT:

The "Revenge Factor" is going to come into play and soon!

Just listen to the words of Abu Mohammad al-Golani!

As I said two days ago, the Sunni response will come and it may come outside of Syria.

Simply put; If I was a family member of  Hezbollah back in Lebanon, I would leave and I would leave to somewhere very remote.

Simply put; Lebanon is now totally engulfed in the Syrian conflict and any "limited" response by the enemies of Assad will most likely involve Lebanon and perhaps others near by paying the price.

THE FINAL FACT:

The ideological mentality of believing there is some version of  " A limited Response" is flawed beyond imagination.

Western actions, at any level, will take the entire region to the reality of the long feared disaster.

Simply put; phones and face to face meetings must be a blistering pace right now and the concept of "saving face" cannot be allowed to rule the day.

The problem will be, as the rational attempt to avoid what they all know might happen with intervention, the radicals will take their revenge and that revenge will be responded to by the desperate to survive!

Containment...... that has to be priority  one right now..... or at least I hope it is!!

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Syrias-Nusra-threatens-to-target-Alawites-over-alleged-chemical-attack-324190