GOLAN HEIGHTS... THE NEXT BATTLEFIELD.. I DON'T THINK SO!!

A few days ago I commented on why I thought Iran would take the bold move of sending advanced weapons systems to Hezbollah.

My conclusion was it was all part of a much larger " Master Plan" to buy Iran time!!

I'm still confident that goal remains the major objective of the Iranian leadership, but another level of detail of how this plan is unfolding, a level that could derail the whole Iran objective, should be mentioned.

As we all remember, less than two weeks ago Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, gave a nearly panicked speech to on TV as he tried to get his "base" to understand why Hezbollah fighters were being killed in Syria.

The was and to some degree still is, a real danger of a Hezbollah fraction.

Nasrallah painted a less than successful picture of how Hezbollah was preventing the nation of Syria and it's people from falling into the hands of the West and the Israelis in some oddly constructed theory of the West teaming up with Sunni Radicals!!

Many thought had two basic opinions of Nasrallah's speech that day.

1.  It was a poor attempt to justify what Hezbollah was doing.

2.  It was arrogant  beyond imagination.

As we all sat around trying to figure out just what message Iran was sending through Nasrallah, the world fell right into Iran's and Hezbollah's lap!!!!

Israel attacked targets...again.... in Syria.

Suddenly, the ridiculous statements by Nazrallah became far more believable to the average person on the streets of the Middle East...

Did Israel fall right into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah?

Did Iran set the whole weapons movement issue up to time perfectly with Nasrallah's speech?

Here are the simple facts of this week, the week after this all took place.

There is now bold and dangerous talk of combined Hezbollah, Palestinian, radical elements from Syria preparing to take action in the Golan Heights!!

Some may not be putting much "stock" into these comments and threats given all the hype of yet another "Conference" with Russia and the US, but I can assure you the government of Lebanon and Israel and Jordan are taking the issue very seriously!!!

Finally, I find it hard to believe Israel didn't realize they were being manipulated into taking actions in Syria.

My bet is Israel knew exactly what they were doing and they had and have a very good idea of what actions may come of it.

If a regional war starts in the Middle East, Iran will not be spared.... they will not get the time they are working so hard to gain!!!

So, Iran needs to ask itself.....did it work???

Israel will most likely determine the answer.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-11/216737-hezbollahs-actions-could-drag-lebanon-to-war-geagea.ashx#axzz2Szb0LDQQ

  

IRAN.SYRIA.HEZBOLLAH.. THE THREE AMIGOS TRY TO SELL A STORY!!! 

Yesterday I addressed some of the possible reasons Iran would ship "redline" weapons to Hezbollah, but there is one thing I forgot to point out; it was a plan where only Arabs would  be killed!!!!

As Assad, Iran and Hezbollah desperately try to paint a picture of Israel supporting the Rebels in Syria, an asinine storyline at best, it should have accrued to everyone paying attention what Iran is really trying to do.......keep the Arabs killing each other all the while praying it keeps Israel distracted.

I must admit the message the Three Amigos tried to sell today was most likely shaped for the Arab youth and it's for that reason I have a recommendation to the GCC governments.

The government controlled media networks of the GCC states.... you know... like Al Jazeera, need to ask one basic question in the morning..... Are the Persians ready to destroy everything they own for the sake of the Arab, Sectarian Civil War...will Persians die in mass for the Arabs????/

I bet I know the answer and I will even give you a hint on the Persian viewpoint.

Mr Salehi put on a real show today in Jordan, but one point stuck out more than most and that was the comment that 'Arab countries should respond to Israel's aggression in Syria' .... paraphrased but close...

Here is the short answer from Tehran to the actions of Israel, " You Arabs need to fight with Israel while we...superior Persians complete  our nuclear weapons program!!!!

And where do the Arabs think they will be when the Persian plan is complete; an equal partner in the affairs of the Middle East??? Don't make me laugh!!

In some shape or  fashion... this is the "Theme" the GCC and it's Allies .... hint...hint... should be working on.....

Just my opinion!

http://www.jpost.com/International/Iran-warns-of-regional-chaos-in-post-Assad-era-312380

WHY CREATE THE ISRAELI " REDLINE"????

Off all the inputs I read and head today, one question was never asked and it's the key question everyone should be contemplating!!!!

Why???

Why would Iran openly supply a category of weapons to Hezbollah that everyone knows Israel will never accept?

Why?

Well, since nobody asked the question today, let me try to answer my own thought of the day.

Lets try several scenarios and see what one fits.

"DIDN'T BELIEVE THEY WOULD DO IT":

Yep, I will start with the most lunatic scenario  first. 

If Iran didn't really believe Israel would attack targets inside of Syria, then perhaps the third time is a charm.... Hint.. if need be there will be more than a third time!!!

"GET THE WEAPONS INTO LEBANON BEFORE THEY STRIKE AND THUS FORCE ISRAEL TO ATTACK TARGETS INSIDE OF LEBANON":

For this scenario to work, Iran would have to once again grossly underestimate Israel's ability to gather targeting intelligence.

By now, I would be stunned if Iran will still misjudging Israel's capabilities; capabilities Iran is convinced the US and the West is "supporting".

Israel is all too aware of the risk involved with attacking targets inside of Lebanon without it being based on a retaliation event.

It is much easier to strike targets in Syria, politically, than to move on the weakened government of Lebanon....... a move the world would truly perceive as pushing Lebanon into a Civil War.

Simply put, Israel is not going to take action against Lebanon unless it's forced to.

So, I don't buy this theory as well!!!

"KEEPING ISRAEL OCCUPIED WITH EVENTS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON BUYS IRAN TIME":

Ok, this is the one worth talking about.

Why would Iran openly push weapons that Israel will not accept at a time when it seems Iran should be purely occupied with saving the Assad regime?

It may just be as simple as this!

Iran believes the best short term doctrine towards Israel is to keep Israel occupied with the proxy fight in Syria.

Ok, here is what is truly interesting about this " concept".

If we assume Iran has taken this "distraction tactic", one I have talked about in the past, then is it possible Iran needs the events in Syria  to continue.........continue long enough to finalize a nuclear weapon's program?

Is this weapons shipment part of a delaying Master Plan?

That is my bet and its the only reason I can accept as to why Iran would do something as politically insain as sending Hezbollah tactical mid range, mobile missiles... missiles they know full well will never make it into conflict.

Finally, if I have come to this conclusion, then what "conclusion" has Israel come to?

If I was Iran, I would try hard to get out of the rut of underestimating Israel.

So, I chose "door number 3"....

IRAN'S VERSION OF A GREAT QUOTE..... CHOOSE WISELY!!!

Is fairly obvious by now that Israel has a different definition crossing "a redline" than it's allies.

In the past 24 hours in the next few days the question has been asked several times in the last two years will be asked again.

What extent is Iran willing to go in order to save your side regime?

Supplying weapons to Hezbollah, weapons that the Israelis have already clearly stated they would not tolerate being given to them, was an act for the purpose of achieving what?

Two years now I have talked about the possibility of Iran or Assad or both, forcing Israel into taking actions that could label them as the "aggressor"!

It is also obvious in the past 24 hours a second critical question needs to be answered.

What will Iran and Assad do if Israel actually enforces its "redline" doctrine?

Simply put, if Israel has called Iran's bluff, brilliantly I might add by not conducting operations on Lebanese soil, what is Iran going to do?

Messages this, "the ball is back in your court.......... Iran........ what will you do............ what price are you willing to pay?

To have said for the last two years, the reluctance be involved in a regional war is only trumped a nation is backed into a corner.

Iran and Hezbollah and Assad have been placed in such a corner.

Escalation!

If that is the option that Iran or Assad or Hezbollah chooses, and they should realize that the Israelis do whatever it takes to protect their nation.

Where the  bombing raids into Syria dangerous escalation?

Obviously the answer is yes.

Are the Iranians and Hezbollah prepared to take it to the next level?

Next day or so may give us our answer, but I can assure you is the most important decision coming out of Tehran and Damascus for the foreseeable future.

Yes, these are very dangerous times and it could very well be that the next nation back away from their "redline" doctrine be the Iranians.

There's a great quote from the movie 300 that applies in the situation more than many understand expiration point

"Choose your next words carefully Leonidas, they may be your last as king".

CASTLE ALAWITE!!

                                                                                                                        

Ok, the last two weeks have seen a noticeable change in the Syrian government's achievements against the Rebels/ Freedom fighters / or whatever else you chose to call them!!!

At the tactical level, it's easy to understand this shift given the obvious increased commitment by Hezbollah and Iran.

Here is the fundamental questions everyone should be asking.

Will it work?

Will Assad and his "friends" turn the tide on the Civil War in Syria?

My answer is no!!

History is chalked full of "counter attacks" that ether turn the tide of a conflict or indicate the last great gasp before defeat.

In Assad's case, it's a mixture of both.

Most "experts" this week have commented on Assad's counter offensive aimed at Rebel strongholds and how these actions are designed to limit the flow of supplies to the Rebel groups.

Well, I can buy part of that theory and I totally understand Assad wishing that is exactly how the rest of the world would perceive his actions, but I'm not convinced.

My hunch is Assad is clearing the area agasent to his fallback Kingdom.... Tartus and Latakia ..... "Castle Alawite"!!!

It's possible the commitment of  Iran's Strategic Reserve, " Hezbollah" may produce some temporary success, but Hezbollah has problems of it's own and the idea of them depleting their war stock for months on end, along with Iran's, is simply not sound logic on Tehran's part.

Nope... my bet is Assad is building his escape path to "Castle Alawite" or at least that is what his most loyal followers are praying for.

Here is the problem for his followers..... there is only so much room available inside of Castle Alawite and you better be from the right "clan" if you want a door pass!!!

Yes.... Assad has bought himself some time, but he is not going to turn the tide of the Civil War... .the time for that to happen is long passed.

Collapsing back into Castle Alawite with a few chosen followers.... to include Hezbollah and Iranian operatives is going to be the end state... or he is going to wake up Dead... still a possibility if the Tsar can work a deal or two along the line.

Can you imagine the bargaining position the Tsar is in right now?

Can you see the reaction if he was to say to the rest of the Word, "Ok... I'll pull out and tell the Iranians it's time to settle for Syria as a modern day version of Lebanon in the 80s... Mad Maxville, but here is what I want in return"!!!!

Mad Maxville... .a place where Hezbollah can still operate from and serve the Master of Tehran if needed.

Assad better be ready to move into Castle Alawite faster than he thinks.... for the Tsar just may have other ideas for his future.

Last but not least........ If Assad comes to the conclusion, once he moves into his Castle, that nobody gets a clean shot at ruling what is left of Syria; then he is capable of just about anything... and we all know what that means.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-03/215875-syria-widens-campaign-to-uproot-rebels.ashx#axzz2SBCdnuZl

NASRALLAH GIVES HIS SPEECH, BUT WHAT DID IT MEAN?

Ok, yesterday I commented on Nasrallah giving a speech soon for two reasons.

1. To try to explain to his support base why Hezbollah was fighting in Syria... Hint his answer was really...really weak!!!

2.  He would give a hint as to where Hezbollah was heading with the Syrian conflict.

Now that the "speech" is over, a few things jumped out at me.

It's clear Nasrallah was addressing more than just his base.

His comments and statements were often directed towards his opponents fighting in Syria.

If you really breakdown his speech, it's clear over half of his comments were addressed to the rebels in Syria.

Now, to some degree he did address the West to include Israel, but threats to the West and Israel were clearly not the centerpiece of this event.

The next item that caught me by surprise was Narallah's repeated reference to "friends" not allowing the Syrian Government to fall; side not... notice he did not mention Assad by name?

He even went as far as stating these "friends" have assured him they would not allow the fall of the current government in Syria.

Strange!!

Why the emphasis on this point?

I think I know why!!

As I said, although he didn't spend a great deal of time threatening the West or Israel, this implied statement of so called "fact" that Syria's "friends" would not allow it to fall was a clear indirect / implied threat.

If you read between the lines, the statement is this, " if the West openly intervenes, then Iran will commit to the fight"!!

I know he mentioned Russia, but not even the blowhard Nasrallah could possibly think for a minute the Tsar would commit combat forces to Syria?

No oil / no fuel from Syrian land... no commitment by the Tsar... Oil / fuel rules his thought process 24/7/365.

Ok, having made the comment about the Russians, did Nasrallah just put the rest of the West on notice that Iran is willing to go the distance for Syria?

Most likely, and that makes the US / Western response to the WMD issue about as dangerous as it can get.

The third issue that caught my attention with Nasrallah's speech was  the absolute egocentric way he addressed Lebanon's response to Lebanese citizens being in danger along the Syrian border!!

His point was simple, the Lebanese government is not capable of defending the Lebanese people and only Hezbollah can take on this great challenge.

Let there be no doubt that Nasrallah truly believes he controls Lebanon!!!!

Last night, I commented Nasrallah had perhaps an opportunity to pull Hezbollah out of the cycle of danger they had allowed Iran to force them into.

It is clear today, Nasrallah has no intention of backing up!!!!

Like the little Bully who thinks his 6-5 / 300 lb friend is standing behind him //// Iran///// Nasrallah just kicked sand into the world's face....

Oh by the way, just who is Nasrallah.... and what is Hezbollah really/?????

Let me make a comparison and see if your perspective changes.

Can you imagine in the US / Britain / China / France / Germany / Russia... an armed group based upon a religious doctrine living outside the control of the national government... a militia / armed to the teeth / that dictates to the rest of the world's leaders what the country they are living in is going to do and not do?

It's like the KKK dictating to DC what the US will and will not do and speaking for the US on international affairs?

It's insane and that is exactly how the rest of the world needs to view Hezbollah!!!

Ok, here is the bottom line.

Nesrallah, for all intensive purposes, drew his redline today..

"Do not intervene in Syria or Syria's "friends" will defeat you"!!!

Here is the problem with "redlines"....  when someone steps across, they do so knowing they are ready to take on the consequences...

Is Hezbollah ready for that???? Really???

How deep is the whole Nesrallah lives in??

If I was him I would dig a much deeper hole or be ready to move that "redline"...

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-01/215667-nasrallah-hints-assads-allies-could-intervene.ashx#axzz2RzpBgAiQ

HIZBALLAH LOSES IN SYRIA.... MORE THAN JUST MEMBERS!!!

Sticking with the issue of Hizbollah's challenges again today for one simple reason; it's the most important issue potentially for the whole region.

For several weeks the rumors of "troubles" inside the Hizbollah camp have been circulating  and this trend now holds true going into the month of May.

This report by DEBKA, if true, is one of the more dramatic events pertaining to Hizbollah's future.

The rumor of a pending speech by Nasrallah within the next few days just took on a whole new level of urgency, if this DEBKA story is true. 

Nasrallah has every intention of explaining to the Hizbollah base support why their fighters are engaged in Syria.

I am one of those who truly believe the UAV incident last week with Israel was nothing more than an attempt by Nasrallah to show the "base" he still has his eye on the Israel.

Can you imagine having to walk into the room, as he is preparing his speech, and inform him one of his top leaders has been killed in Syria along with several members of one of the organization's most revered units?

Try adding that explanation to the speech!!

Now, I made the comment a few months ago the addition of Hizbollah " regulars" would dramatically change the Battlefield for the Syrian Rebels and the last two weeks of fighting seems to have proven me right.

But, as is the case with most extended conflicts, the "shock" of a new leverage has the tendency to level off over time and that could be exactly what happened to this elite unit.

In simple terms, their enemy adapted to their tactics and then executed a counter strike.

So, what does this all mean?

If we accept the fact that Hizbollah is in more trouble now than at any point in their history, what does it mean?

If ever there was a prime example of " The Law of Unintended Consequences", the near future of Hizbollah's actions may become a textbook case.

Nasrallah's pending speech to his "Base" may just be for wider audience than he had initially hoped for.

Watch for it.... It's going to be vital to the near future of the region!!

If, and I say if, but if Narallah has a crack in his armor... if he is looking for an escape route... he just may hint to it in this next speech.

http://www.debka.com/article/22936/Hizballah-loses-two-high-officers-in-major-defeat-at-al-Qusayr-near-Homs