ERDOGAN " EGODAN" ... FULL SPEED AHEAD.. JUST LIKE I THOUGHT!!

Two nights ago I commented Egodan had a better than 50/ 50 chance of completely botching the act of de-escalation.

Well, I think I will move those odds to 90/10 now!

As we witnessed today, the talk of "outsiders" is back in his vocabulary and that posses the question!

Is there any ounce of truth to what he is saying?

I would be the first to admit he has his share of "outside" enemies, both ones he knows of and one's he may only speculate over.

Would Assad and his Persian Masters love to see Turkey destabilized?

Most likely the answer is yes to some degree.

As has been the case since the start of the conflict in Syria, Assad welcomes anything that takes the attention off of his plight.

As for the Persians; with elections less than two weeks away and the growing fear of civil unrest, the concept of the world watching the streets of Istanbul burning while the Iranian Government Thugs beat their people into voting the way they are expected to, well, that would be  a welcomed outcome from Tehran's view.

Witnessing a Muslim Brotherhood supporting government like Egodan's slipping a few notches would most likely bring a few smiles to the faces of the GCC leadership.

With all of this said, does that equate into any of them actually being  responsible for the troubles in Turkey?

Probably not!

That honor goes strictly to Egodan!

Here is the problem or should I say, here are the two problems.

Perception!

That dirty little word I always seem to come back to when talking about the Middle East.

Paranoia!

So, mix perception with paranoia and you have the makings a Turkish meltdown.

Egodan's perception that his "enemies" are drumming up this revolt for the sake of " keeping Turkey from achieving their place in the world", can easily lead to his government taking actions that ignite the real fires.

The ability of those around him, those few he actually trust, to keep his level of paranoia from over fueling his "Perceptions" is almost assuredly limited.

So, I go back to my point about the percentages of failure.

A level headed leader with strong listening skills could find a way clear of this event, but then again, if Turkey had such a leader, they would be in the pending crisis to start.

Finally:

Egodan has one thing in common with his old friend Assad.

He is praying for a distraction and perhaps a big one!

Lebanon and it's pending crisis; that is probably high on Egodan's wish list right about now.

without a " distraction" closer and closer Egodan will head to the edge!!!

Funny.... now days... .so many leaders in the world always seem to be looking for a "distraction".

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=110722

SO.. QUSAYR BATTLE ENDS??????  NOW WHAT?????

So, the Rebels, Terrorist, take your pick, have been pushed out of Qusayr?

Yes, it was all the talk today, but the intelligent conversations on what it means or more importantly, what could it lead to.......well... that never seem to take place today!

Lets take a quick shot at this in order to get back to the issue of Turkey on Friday.

Ok, If the Sunni fighters have suffered a true tactical defeat, one that was bound to happen given their decision to turn into a regularly fighting force, we have to ask the question, what are they going to do about it?

First off, as I've been saying for several weeks now, the target of opportunity is going to be Shia / Hezbollah's support in Lebanon.

By the way, the tactic of attacking a border outpost right on the Israeli line, knowing all along the Syrian regular military would be forced to respond with overwhelming force........ well... that was a stroke of extremely risky genius..

Think about it.

The Sunni fighters forced the Syrian regular military to engage in close order combat right up on the Israeli border knowing the IDF would only tolerate such actions for a limited time.

If the gamble was to get the IDF to react to the Syrian regular army events, it could have lead to actions that would have swept the issue of Qusayr right off the table.

Luckily, for all of us, the IDF didn't take the bait.

Ok, back to the options for the Sunni fighters.

Striking Hezbollah's "base" is going to be the focus of Sunni operations perhaps for months to come and Lebanon's government is virtually powerless to stop it.

As a matter of fact, Lebanon's military will have its hands full just dealing with Tripoli, not to mention car bombs and gun battles in Beirut.

With all the talk of supply lines now being cut from Lebanon to the Sunni fighters, you would think they are done for...

Take a look at a map...

Notice what other countries border with Syria?

Do you get the picture?

Ok, here is my third and final point on this supposed disaster for the Sunni side of the Civil War.

Taking a objective is only have the battle.

Once you take something, especially in bad guy territory, you have to have the ability to hold it.

In this case Assad, or should I say Hezbollah, not only has to hold the town, they have to convince the people, the ones that are left, it's ok to try and salvage your day to day life!

Hezbollah has the advantage now and that is helping Assad hope for his future, but the reality is, Hezbollah has never been a force of prolonged combat.

Lets see where they are after a year of sustained losses.

Lets see how their leadership begins to deal with IEDs in Tripoli, Bekaa Valley and even Beirut.

When the bodies of the young Hezbollah fighters start to come home from Homs and Aleppo, how will Hezbollah leadership explain they are defending Shia towns in Syria's North?

Yes, the victory of this one battle goes to Assad, but the price that is being paid is the combat effectiveness of Iran's top Proxy / non Iranian / fighters.... Hezbollah.

It's all fun and glorious right now.... it's the nature of young men in love with the thrill of battle!

In a few months, when their homes back in Lebanon are the scenes of endless street battles and car bombs, then what?

As the song goes, " The Thrill is Gone"!!!!

ERDOGAN ( EGODAN) GETS "ONE UPPED" BY ASSAD!!!

Well, yesterday I commented it would be more than interesting to see how Mr Egodan continues to respond to the events in Turkey.

What became very clear today was yet another similarity  between his government and the falling dictatorships of Egypt, Tunisia ect...ect..  The state controlled media.

Not only is the story dying a thousand deaths at the hands of the Turkish Pres, it's obvious  there truly are no problems other than a simple misunderstanding over a few trees and everyone needs to go home!!!

Ok, does anyone think that is going to work?

Yep... of course not!!!

Is Egodan in trouble of losing power?

Not yet, but he has ample time to screw things up much worse than he already has.

Off to the next point, and I must admit it's one I find amusing.

So, just how mad do you think Egodan is over Assad getting the opportunity to say, " Why don't you practice what you preach"????

I wouldn't want to be in the same room with this egomaniac when someone tells him what the Syrian press is putting out, much less the Iranian rags!!!

Lets talk about what might take place  if things do happen to get worse for Mr Egodan.... I.E... he continues to blow it!!

We've seen the hint of where he is willing to take this event over the weekend, when he thought things really could get out of control.

" Foreign support.... Those against Turkey becoming a real power.....ect....ect.."

As I said yesterday, this sounds more than familiar and many in the Middle Eastern media were quick to pick up it. 

That's an important issue for one simple reason, it's an indicator to Mr Egodan's government how little "play" this excuse will have if they have to  keep with such a theme.

Let's make this real simple.

Turkey has a chance to escape at least this round of civil discontent, but only if Mr Egodan doesn't blow it.

Here is the problem....getting him to shut up and getting him to not start pointing fingers is going to be nearly impossible.

It's for that reason I think this event, although perhaps just being "round one", has a better chance than most are giving it of really turning into a problem for the Turkish government.

Mr Ergodan is not a compromiser and simply doesn't have the defusing skills of someone like Mr Morsi in Egypt.

Mr Ergodan is a hothead and a Bully and those are  not the characteristics of someone who can talk there way out of a conflict.

I will continue to keep an eye on Turkey for the next few days to see if the ambers reignite the next forest fire, but the topic of Syria deserves a follow up and for that reason I will drift back that direction next; unless of course the Turkish Bully decides to do something stupid!!!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/assad-erdogan-riots.html

TURKEY. WAS IT THE TREES ARE THE BOOZE????

Ok, I've been away from the daily inputs since Friday when the whole event in Turkey took place for one simple reason.

I've been trying to figure out just what is taking place, why and most importantly; what does it mean?

Let's look at those three basic questions.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TURKEY?

The most commonly asked question continues to be, "is this the Turkish Spring"?

The answer is more than complex, but my hunch is it's way too early to tell.

Erdogan is flying down the road that several leaders have traveled since the early days of Tunisia!

His increasing drumbeat response of, "these actions are sponsored by 'outsiders', is rumbling like a three year old echo!!!

Now, everyone knows Erdogan has an ego second to none and his ability to talk down his nose to everyone around him has a ten year track record.

If he is really in trouble, the killing wound of arrogance simply wont be that surprising to those who know him.

Today's move by the Unions was most likely unanticipated by the Turkish government and their response to this commitment will tell us the real story.

Next Question:

WHY?

You know, sometimes when you are in power for too long and for too long everything goes the way you demand it, the breaking point comes at the least expected moment and typically with little warning.

Does anyone really believe the "Trees" in a park is or was the issue?

Really????

The fact of the matter is, when enough people are reaching the breaking point, but they just don't have the nerve jump first, it takes someone else's actions to get the game started.

This is exactly what happened.

Nobody set themselves on fire, not yet that is, but the anger has been building and Erdogan's ego simply didn't let him believe it; I still don't think he believes it!!!!!

Last week, just prior to this crisis starting I was reading about the new Alcohol Laws for Turkey.

I remember saying to myself, I bet this gets the people into the streets!

Well, trees or no trees.... I think the Alcohol crackdown was the real breaking point.

Like every good "revolt" once it gets underway, it's hard to gage just where it will go and how large it will become.

The anger built up in the people of Turkey is the fuel and the more fuel there is, the more the chances are the protest will grow and sustain themselves; it's the simple math of civil unrest.

Third Question:

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Simply put, is Erdogan's government in trouble?

As I said earlier, it's a little early to tell, but the next few days are more than critical.

His leaving the country right in the middle of this crisis was a real gamble, one that once again shows his arrogance.....

For a person who has been in power for over ten years and has spent a great deal of time driving his country towards the religious baseline, his reactions are somewhat strange.

Is there Erdogan Fatigue in Turkey?

Yep!!!

Is the youth of Turkey ready for covered women and the closure of night clubs?

Have you ever been to Istanbul.... at night???

There is your answer.

Ok, one of the reasons I've been off the net for the past few days is simply because I've been trying to figure out how Egodan ( get it????) is going to react to this potential disaster for his government.

I've resurfaced today to start the process of predictive analysis  and over the next few days I will try to paint a picture of where Egodan ( my new name for him) is heading.

This will not only be more than interesting, but it's going to signal a brand new chapter in the Soap Opera called the Middle East....one that was not predicted.

That's right.. What is taking place in Turkey was unanticipated, but not to everyone and that is what Egodan will try and play off of if he has to save his job.

You will see what I mean over the next few days..

Stay in touch.. this is more than interesting.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Its-neither-Zuccotti-nor-Tahrir-its-Taksim-315481

HEZBOLLAH vs. HAMAS??? IT'S ALREADY UNDERWAY.

Rumors today, and admittedly they are just that 'rumors', that Hezbollah has ordered Hamas out of Lebanon are just the kind of acts that can ignite an even larger fire.

               

I don't put any stock into this statement being true, but perhaps indirectly.

Even if this statement is not factual, the issue is undeniable.

I've said it before and I will say it again.

Hezbollah has made a catastrophic mistake with it's actions in Syria.

Let me give you another perfect example of why this is true.

When the killings started in Syria and the Shia were more than willing to watch Sunni families leave Syria into Lebanon, where did they think they would go?

Well, the answer is a large portion of them entered the Palestinian refugee camps.

So, where did the Nasra "trainers / organizers / show up?

Yep.... the camps...

And what was the purpose of training the willing in these camps?

Yep... to fight in Syria oh and by the way... they are ready to now fight in Lebanon on Hezbollah ground...

Yes.. the conflict in Syria provided a militia environment for the Sunni groups to leverage and that is exactly what they are going to do.

When I talked of the issue of opening "second fronts"  Lebanon and Iraq, Hezbollah must have completely forgotten who was filling the camps in Lebanon.

Ok.........who has a great deal of influence in these camps?

Yep... Hamas!!

So, Is Hezbollah desperate to get Hamas out of the mix in Lebanon?

Yep!!!

Hezbollah has allowed their enemy to build a force right next-door to their own base and that is an issue that will not go over well with their supporters.

Imagine a Hezbollah supporting Mother being told her daughters and small children are going to go virtually unprotected because their husbands and Son are off fighting the Persian battle in Syria.

Good luck selling that one for any period of time.

Oh... and good luck trying to disengage Hezbollah forces to react to the pending hit and run attacks in the home front.

Hold on... Dig in..... fall back if needed... give ground at a high price to the enemy!!!!

That is the battle plan for the Sunni fighters in Syria right now.

At the same time, make the home front for Hezbollah unlivable.

Force Hezbollah to abandon Assad and secure the very homes they come from.

It's going to be bloody and it will work!!!

Then the most important question of all comes into play.

What do the Persians do about it?

Oh.. and for those of you who say the Lebanese military will deal with the Sunni groups coming out of the camps.......please..... get a better answer than that!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/hezbollah-vs-hamas

LEBANON AND IRAQ ... STRIKES AND COUNTER STRIKES.

In attempt to keep thing simple today, lets review what has taken place in the past two days and more importantly why.

There is only one way to explain the rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel.

Hezbollah!!

Hezbollah knows all too well that attacks into their "base" in Lebanon are attempt to divide their efforts.

The Hezbollah response was predictable; fire into Israel from Lebanon.

A two part objective was attempted.

A.   Provoke Israel into inflicting pain into Lebanon, thus taking the pressure off of Hezbollah's increasing actions in Syria.

B.  Show their "base" they still have a core value of "resisting" the Zionist.

Did ether objective reach any level of success?

It depends on who the target audience was!

If Hezbollah was sending a "message" to their base, then they most likely achieved some level of success.

If the audience was the Sunni of Lebanon, then the "treat" was more than worrisome.

If the intended audience was the IDF and Israeli political leadership, then Hezbollah wasted their time and rockets.

IRAQ:

Again, the issue continues to be the Sunni Attempt  to divert Shia support units from Iraq from supporting Syrian Operations.

It's difficult to be a local militia fighter from Iraq in Syria and continue to hear of attacks back in your hometown in Iraq.

Simple put; both sides continue the attempts to pull resources away from the "enemy"!

The real danger continues to be the reckless repercussions for Lebanon as both  sides underestimate the danger of spiraling violence.

If  Lebanon is to buckle under the pressure of sectarian violence, than both Sunni and Shia will have issues to deal with that nether fully comprehends.

Reckless 'tit for tats" and counter actions outside of Syria make the possibility of a larger scale event ever more likely.

Who's trying to stop these counter attacks form taking place?

Regardless of the answer, the real problem is those who are trying are mostly powerless to have any true impact.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/May-27/218445-resistance-brigades-member-assir-supporters-clash-in-sidon.ashx#axzz2UWQsPJBZ

HEZBOLLAH .. THE ONLY WAY OUT IS ALL THE WAY IN!!!

 Sometimes the only way out of something is to ride it all the way through!!

For the past two days I have taken the position that Hezbollah is now officially stuck in the Syrian quicksand and has absolutely no "Exit Plan".

No one seem to understand this better than Mr. Nasrallah!

He understands it so well that he gave the speech today about victory for Assad and how Hezbollah would insure it's arrival.

What made him do this?

Did the Persians give him the " you are all the way in speech / orders?

Perhaps.

What is more likely the answer is that reality has set in.

Nasrallah knows his forces have no chance of disengagement and when your whole life is driven by blinding testosterone, well, the end result is predictable.

But, something else in his speech virtually floored me today.

Not only did Nasrallah come to the realization he and his movement is virtually trapped in the Sectarian Civil War, but he made the totally insane prediction that Assad was all but guaranteed victory given Hezbollah's commitment.

If any of his actions in this conflict are fatal to his movement, then this one is at the top of the list.

Is Hezbollah all the way in?

Absolutely!

Could this prove to be Hezbollah's most critical error in their history?

Yes!

I know the argument can be made they had, in some opinions, little choice given the strength of the Sunni movement, but full commitment has a tremendous risk... the risk of total failure.

Let me put this another way.

The GCC and Israel, from a strategic standpoint, could not have been happier with Nasrallah's speech.

If Hezbollah's involvement was the purpose of the "trap", then the objective has been achieved.

But, as I hinted to last night, everyone needs to be extremely worried as to what level of commitment Hezbollah has now reached.

Let me give you an example!

In Lebanon today, this speech by Nasrallah was seen as a nearly doomsday snapshot!

Simply put, if Hezbollah now realizes they have no way out of the Syrian / Secterian Civil War, then the amount of pain for everyone involved could be substantial.

Was a trap set for Hezbollah with the objective of reducing or even nutralizing their capabilities prior to a larger regional conflict?

Perhaps!

But the price of that "trap" could prove to be just as costly as the event the trap was intended to avoid.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-25/218352-hezbollah-says-fighting-in-syria-opposes-importing-crisis-to-lebanon.ashx#axzz2UMEtu2QK