Tuesday, June 4, 2013























TURKEY. WAS IT THE TREES ARE THE BOOZE????

Ok, I've been away from the daily inputs since Friday when the whole event in Turkey took place for one simple reason.

I've been trying to figure out just what is taking place, why and most importantly; what does it mean?

Let's look at those three basic questions.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TURKEY?

The most commonly asked question continues to be, "is this the Turkish Spring"?

The answer is more than complex, but my hunch is it's way too early to tell.

Erdogan is flying down the road that several leaders have traveled since the early days of Tunisia!

His increasing drumbeat response of, "these actions are sponsored by 'outsiders', is rumbling like a three year old echo!!!

Now, everyone knows Erdogan has an ego second to none and his ability to talk down his nose to everyone around him has a ten year track record.

If he is really in trouble, the killing wound of arrogance simply wont be that surprising to those who know him.

Today's move by the Unions was most likely unanticipated by the Turkish government and their response to this commitment will tell us the real story.

Next Question:

WHY?

You know, sometimes when you are in power for too long and for too long everything goes the way you demand it, the breaking point comes at the least expected moment and typically with little warning.

Does anyone really believe the "Trees" in a park is or was the issue?

Really????

The fact of the matter is, when enough people are reaching the breaking point, but they just don't have the nerve jump first, it takes someone else's actions to get the game started.

This is exactly what happened.

Nobody set themselves on fire, not yet that is, but the anger has been building and Erdogan's ego simply didn't let him believe it; I still don't think he believes it!!!!!

Last week, just prior to this crisis starting I was reading about the new Alcohol Laws for Turkey.

I remember saying to myself, I bet this gets the people into the streets!

Well, trees or no trees.... I think the Alcohol crackdown was the real breaking point.

Like every good "revolt" once it gets underway, it's hard to gage just where it will go and how large it will become.

The anger built up in the people of Turkey is the fuel and the more fuel there is, the more the chances are the protest will grow and sustain themselves; it's the simple math of civil unrest.

Third Question:

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Simply put, is Erdogan's government in trouble?

As I said earlier, it's a little early to tell, but the next few days are more than critical.

His leaving the country right in the middle of this crisis was a real gamble, one that once again shows his arrogance.....

For a person who has been in power for over ten years and has spent a great deal of time driving his country towards the religious baseline, his reactions are somewhat strange.

Is there Erdogan Fatigue in Turkey?

Yep!!!

Is the youth of Turkey ready for covered women and the closure of night clubs?

Have you ever been to Istanbul.... at night???

There is your answer.

Ok, one of the reasons I've been off the net for the past few days is simply because I've been trying to figure out how Egodan ( get it????) is going to react to this potential disaster for his government.

I've resurfaced today to start the process of predictive analysis  and over the next few days I will try to paint a picture of where Egodan ( my new name for him) is heading.

This will not only be more than interesting, but it's going to signal a brand new chapter in the Soap Opera called the Middle East....one that was not predicted.

That's right.. What is taking place in Turkey was unanticipated, but not to everyone and that is what Egodan will try and play off of if he has to save his job.

You will see what I mean over the next few days..

Stay in touch.. this is more than interesting.



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