MORSI's AND THE SINAI DILEMMA  

How could it possibly be the tribe of the Sinai could not follow the Master Plan the MB / Morsi have put together for them?

I bet this is a question he and the MB may be asking right about now, although I'm not convenced what we are witnessing is not part of that plan.

Never the less, if it turns out the factions inside the Sinai are truly revolting towards the current government in Egypt, then Morsi has a big... big... problem.

My hunch is he knew some of the factions in the area would not follow his plan, but he and the MB have hoped to convert / convince / enough of them to keep the area stable until it was time to utilize them against Israel.

So, within two weeks, we have now seen two examples of Morsi not having everything go according to "plan".

First was the fiasco of the Cairo protest and now the continuation of the Sinai unrest.

One thing is for sure, again, Morsi and the MB are continuing to learn it is far easier to Run for Office and control than it is to actually be in control.

Let's see how the Sinai turns out for him.

I'm still not convinced he and the MB may not be playing " Good Cop / Bad Cop"; again!!!

http://www.debka.com/article/22360/Al-Qaeda-led-Salafis-hit-three-Egyptian-Sinai-bases-down-Egyptian-chopper-

 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/09/201291682915656385.html

IRAN  PRAYS  THE "UNREST" WILL CONTINUE.

As much as Iran would love to see the distraction from the Sunni onslaught of the Shia, the simple fact of the matter is, the recent unrest in the region will not stop the fall of Assad, the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Arab Spring from spreading into Iran.

The events of this week may not have been coordinated by Iran, but the results, as temporary as they were, gave them exactly what they had been praying for.

It's obvious Iran would love nothing more than to create a unifying event for the Shia and the Sunni and in the process stop the Sunni juggernaut.

Iran knows all too well the events of Cairo were coordinated by Morsi and the events in Lybia were the brainchild of AQ.

They can make all the claims from Tehran they possibly can about this being a sign of the " Infidel" vs the Muslim faith, but it just won't work.

I would absolutely expect Iran to try their best to keep this "unrest" going as long as possible and because of that the West must be very careful on who we blame the next round of violence / terrorist acts.... and there will be more.

Iran's problem is, Morsi's "stunt" in Cairo nearly backfire on him and I don't look for him to push the envelope like that again anytime soon and the MB sure the heck isn't going to do anything to further the cause of the Shai / Persians.

In the spirit of keeping this simple and short; lets recap what happened and what is not going to happen.

Lybia's attack was a AQ event plane and simple.

Morsi's event was a test run for his new and improved version of Islamic radical and it almost backfired on him; as a matter of fact, he is having a hard time with "damage control" both in Egypt and in the West and most of all with the "old School Islamist".

What is not going to happen is ether AQ or the MB continuing any action that takes pressure off of Tehran.

The issue will continue to be the Sunni movement in the region and the fall of Assad, and Hezbollah.

Remember, that doesn't mean we will not see more "Events" soon as Iran tries as hard as it can to keep the " Us against Them" movement going.

WHERE DID THE "BLACK FLAGS GO??? BET I KNOW!!!

So, the day after the " Black Flags" of AQ showed up in Cairo, they have now disappeared?

Why?

I'll tell you why... Morsi and the MB realized the damage this image was about to do to their cause.

The flags may have played well to the Arab youth, but it was obvious the Western media caught on to the significance of their symbolism ,and the MB had to be careful not to let this event spin too far out of control.

As I said yesterday, the AQ Flag has become the new Battle Banner for Islamist in general and the events of Cairo have given this flag a whole new level of prominence.

The flags were visible in Tunisia today as well as in other countries, but not in Egypt?

Why is that?

Answer: Mr Morsi and the MB that's why!

The  travesty of Libya and the events in Cairo are related only in the fact they both took place, deliberately, on the anniversary of 9-11.

Was the protest in Cairo and AQ operation?

In my opinion, no, and that answer leads to a far more interesting and important issue; the transformation of the Islamist movement.

As I said yesterday, I believe we are witnessing the deliberate changing of the guard!

The Bearded Cave dwellers of the AQ movement are being phased out, marginalized or at least this is the plan of the MB.

The new Islamic movement, as designed by the MB is what we witnessed in Cairo.

 Yes.. This is not " Your Father's Cadillac" AQ movement anymore!

That doesn't mean the Bearded Ones will not be relevant, but soon they will no longer be the "Center of Gravity" for the Fundamentalist Islamic movement.

Interesting enough, this transformation is not part of the current AQ leaderships plan.

It's not their idea to become irrelevant while the more patient, methodical Muslim Brotherhood takes control of the movement.

The " Neanderthal" version of AQ is going to be replaced by the "Homosapien" Islamist... and the change agent is the Muslim Brotherhood.

AQ was born under the vision of the MB, and it has served it's purpose well from the standpoint of the MB.

But, the time seems to have come for the next chapter in the MB Master Plan and that chapter calls for the retirement of the AQ style of business.

Does this sound outrageous to you?

I didn't even believe my own logic at first, but the more I watched Morsi, the more I began to understand where the MB heading.

Make no mistake, the AQ version of Islamic Fundamentalism still has it's place as the MB  / Mursi / continues to execute a classic " Good Cop... Bad Cop" scam against the Infidels.  

When the time comes, and it will come, the old AQ ways and the old "leaders" will be betrayed and forced into the pages of history.

You see, they, like the Shia and the Persians and the Ottomans are nothing but Pawns in the Muslim Brotherhood's Master Plan.

If you think this sounds like the ramblings of a fool...well... lets just watch Muris at work for the next few years and we shall see.

A PICTURE OF THE " GAME CHANGER".

Two events in the past 24 hrs have dominated the news, but one I will refrain from talking about, ie the events in Libya. Why I refrain from this is event is based upon some of my private feelings and I must keep from stating them at this point in my life.

So, let me get on with the event in Egypt and what it means to the rest of the free world.

Take a good look at the picture I have attached to this post.

Is this the mental picture you have when someone says, " Islamic Fundamentalist / Radical Islamist?

The obvious answer for most of the world is no!

So, why does this picture worry people like me?

For almost two years some have had the opinion the Arab Spring had been and would be kidnapped by the Islamist.

I think I've had that conversation a thousand times since the first protest in Tunisia.

The ability of key influential, persuasive, manipulative "leaders" to talk young, unemployed, "lost" young men into committing violent acts; acts they may not truly understand the true purpose; well...... It works!

Creating an "us against them" climate is not hard to do when you are persuading people who are lost on the path of life.

So, here comes the million dollar question!

Is this the new face of Islamic Radicalism?  

Is this the mutation of AQ that UBL dreamed of?

You see, AQ was never intended to be a group of Elitist Fighters who march into martyrdom while the rest of the Muslim world sing songs about their exploits.

UBL's dream was to have the movement go, in the words of my coworker, "Mainstream".

The Black flag of AQ, the one the US DoS would not admit to this morning, has become the new " Battle Banner" for the youth of Egypt, or so it would seem.

Is that all the youth?

No, but it's the ones that didn't wave that flag last year that count.

Ok; from the very beginning of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus /  my name for the movement I will not come off of, the fear was the transformation of young, unemployed adults, grasping onto something that gives them purpose.

It's what lost young people do.

Now, some might be speed reading this post and jump to the conclusion I am painting a picture of all the young people in Egypt morphing into AQ members... far from it.

In reality, it is the AQ mindset that is transforming and the "Masters" of that transformation in the Mother Ship of the movement... The Muslim Brotherhood!

What was Morsi play in the events of yesterday?

If you say he had no play in that day, you are a fool and fools go into history as the stepping stones of others.

Let me spell out for you what I believe happened yesterday in Egypt.

Morsi has been on a steady course to transform Egypt into the center of the Muslim world and  to have the Sunni dominance of that world.

What better way to test his new " Militia" of youth, after nutralizing the Generals in the Egyptian Military, then to give them a mission.

Let me ask you something.

Does anyone really think all these "kids", look at the photo again, were just sitting around the with these brand new, clean black flags, the flag of AQ, and suddenly decided to protest at the US embassy over a movie on You Tube that has been out for months?

And so these "kids" happen to have one of these black flags larger than the others they had mounted to sticks to carry, that they could replace the US flag on the US compound?

Really... that was a spontaneous event??? Really????

This was not a IED event.. this was not an open, attack to kill a US Ambassador... this was not a classic AQ event.

This was Morsi's new militia going on a test run; a militia based on Islamic values driven to violence by a few key leaders... the MB.

How in the world did they get to the walls of the US embassy on the anniversary of 9-11?

Was the date not a indicator to the Egyptian government to have extra security near the US compound?.... Really???

Look at the pictures... look how long the event took place... Where were the guards?

If there is a reason they are not in the photos, and I would bet there is some lame political level response by Egypt, then the other problem is the perception of the American public.

I could go on and on, but the facts are becoming ever more clear..

The time of the free world trying to find a way to live with Islamic Fundamentalist; even some perceived " middle of the road version" like the MB is gone!

It is time to see Morsi for what he is.. the reprehensive leader of a well oiled, dangerous movement with a long history of death...the Brotherhood!

It's time to understand the dream of UBL, a child of the MB movement, could be coming true.

The old AQ may be still out there with all the talk of them being dysfunctional due to killing key leaders, but the fact of the matter is the Islamic Awakening make be taking hold and it may be taking hold in a group that is susceptible to any form of pride and hope...   something Morsi and his MB knows better than anyone else in the Middle East.

This event was far more than a protest against some You Tube clip.

This could very well be the first round of a new, more recognized phase of the MB "Master Plan"..

FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!

A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order effects of "Sanctions".

Now, it's a common understanding the current list of sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place social pressure on the government of Iran.

As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically run government.

The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.

Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.

Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it didn't work.

That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can rest their future on.

I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that is a risk that has been assumed.

Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran to take to the streets?

Perhaps, but not anytime soon.

Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?

That is my fear!

Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his Boss?

Most likely!

The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?

One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical and there is no real love between them.

Did the West take this tension into consideration before the sanction's plan was implemented?

I seriously doubt it!!!!!!

So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?

The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?

Nope!

The fall of the radical government?

Not anytime soon.

The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract the Iranian people?

Most likely!!!

One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to blame someone.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=284675

A REOCCURRING THEORY THAT'S WORTHY OF REVIEW.

All three of these stories talk to an issue that has been bouncing around from the very beginning of the "Arab Spring".

The concept of the Arab Spring, one being hijacked by the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and two having an end state that is both detrimental and advantageous to the West is nothing new.

As I have stated in over the past two years, I truly believe the Muslim Brotherhood " Master Plan" ends with an Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / even inside of Israel.

Somewhere along this path the GCC states, especially Saudi will suffer the same fate, but the Israeli issue will wait to be the final act.

As I have said in the past, no one knows this better than the Saudis and the Israelis and it is for that reason a " pact" is not out of the question.

Both Saudi and Israel believe Iran is in a never ending quest to " weaponize" the Arab Spring movement without allowing this weapon to create doom inside Tehran.

Again, my theory is the Iranians are gambling with their own existence.

The concept they wish to utilize to bring down the governments of Saudi and Israel are the very concepts that may very well spell their own end.

Although this concept of the Arab Spring being manipulated by all parties in the Middle East is not new, what has changed is the reality of the fall out.

The process of "Weaponization" of the Arab Spring has ignited the tinderbox of sectarian conflict.

With the lack of truly professional governorship in the Middle East and this long history of sectarian hatred, the weapon created has quickly begun to overwhelm both sides of the conflict.

What I find amazing, and perhaps I shouldn't give the history of the Middle East, is the fact that all sides of this conflict seem more interested in concurring the other than they are stopping the beast that is in the process of destroying all sides in the region.

What is happening in the region is quickly becoming uncontrollable by all sides involved to include the worlds major powers.

The ability to be " proactive" is all but gone in the Middle East.

The technology of weapons mixed with long lasting hate topped off by youthful unemployment is in the process of turning the whole region into a uncontrollable fire.

Those who are reluctant to make hard decisions about controlling these events in the Middle East are about to run out of time and will realize all too late just how destructive the impact will be to the rest of the world.

As oil goes, so goes the world economy...

If you don't believe that, than you to will watch history unfold right in front of your very eyes.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/09/201291010263945370.html

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=95282

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=284593

ERDOGAN REDEFINES THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT.

You can find several versions of this story on the web, but only a few picked up on the real issue... the PKK...

 http://english.nuqudy.com/Levant/Turkey_Calls_Syria_-3128

Ergogan's frustration with the West, namely the US, is also beginning to show up more an more frequently.

His comment in his CNN interview that ' perhaps' the US November elections has something to do with the lack of movement', is a subtle but deliberate shot at the US.

Having said this, lets get down to brass tacks about the Middle East.

This might not go over well with many of the leaders there, but  the simple fact is very few countries in the Middle East really care about " Refugee issues".

If you don't believe me, I would ask you to look at the Palestinian " Refugee Camps".

The Palestinians can't own land, they can't have citizenship in countries where most of them under the age of 40 were born and raised.

Now, those countries will say something like, " we cannot give them citisenship because that would be admitting to Israel the Palestinian State will never exist"!!!!..

Right!!!

The truth of the matter is, they don't want these "nomads" sticking around, voting and beginning to place demands on the governments where they live.

Again, just go ask the Palestinians who live in Lebanon how they are treated... or try Jordan.

Erdogan is far more concerned about the destabilizing factor these Syrian refugees bring to the tribal areas of Turkey then he is about their overall welfare.

Unfortunately, that is not the issue that caused his statement about Syria being a Terrorist run state.

The truth of the matter is the issue that keeps Erdogan up at night is the PKK and the Kurds!

A Kurdish uprising, a Kurdish Spring, is a true nightmare to Turkey.

Erdogan also realizes Assad has decided to support the PKK given Assad's knowledge of the Turkish support to the Syrian rebels.

Here is what I believe Erdogan is really up to when he relabeled the Syrian government.

His attempts to get the West to support a " No Fly Zone".. a flawed   concept by the way, has gone nowhere.

If Erdogan could have achieved a " Safe Zone / No Fly Zone" in Northern Syria, the ability of the Kurds to strike out on their own would have been severely impacted.

Without this outside support, the idea of Turkey moving on Syria unilaterally was unachievable and would have ended in a political trap for Erdogan's party.  

Knowing this  "Safe Zone" concept of keeping the Kurds in check is not going to work, Erdogan has redefined what the problem is in Syria.

Terrorism!!! The key concept that Erdogan hopes will unlock the door to military action in Syria.

Think about it.

To create a " Free Zone / No Fly Zone / the outside world would have to openly risk war with Iran / Iraq and Syria and everyone knows it.. that's why nobody will vote for it.. .the Russians and the Chinese are doing the rest of the world a favor and at the same time taking the heat....... Ingenious on our part!!!!

But, when you change the topic to " Terrorism" we suddenly redefine what is allowed.

In the war on Terrorism, we are allowed to conduct ' limited strikes' inside someone's country without committing to a full scale operation; think of the US operations in Pakistan as a prime example.

A drone strike here.. a cruse missile there and the next thing you know, Assad is knocked from a balance of power without a committed / sanctioned operation in Syria.

The lovely world of ambiguous Terrorism operations.

Erdogan is a good student and he knows this process may just give him what he needs... the right to fly into Syrian airspace... take out PKK sites in Syria and yet not be accused of attacking the Assad regime.

Remember, Iran doesn't want a war with Turkey, they can't afford it!

If the Iranians believe Turkey is taking action on Syrian land but it's limited to the PKK, it may just tell Assad to sit tight...

Remember... Iran has no love for the Kurdish issue as well.

Erdogan has one issue on his mind right now when it comes to Syria and that is the Kurdish issue.

He loves the idea of oil trade with them, thereby controlling their economic pace, but the idea of Kurds forming a Kurdistan is completely out of the question and he will not allow that concept to take root   inside Syria.

The refugee issue is a false issue in the Middle East, unless you are talking about their ability to create unrest in the countries where they flee.

The Kurds are issue number one in Turkey and that is an issue that will be dealt with one way or another.