Tuesday, September 11, 2012

























FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!

A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order effects of "Sanctions".

Now, it's a common understanding the current list of sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place social pressure on the government of Iran.


As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically run government.

The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.

Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.

Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it didn't work.

That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can rest their future on.

I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that is a risk that has been assumed.

Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran to take to the streets?

Perhaps, but not anytime soon.

Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?

That is my fear!

Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his Boss?

Most likely!

The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?

One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical and there is no real love between them.

Did the West take this tension into consideration before the sanction's plan was implemented?
I seriously doubt it!!!!!!

So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?

The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?

Nope!

The fall of the radical government?

Not anytime soon.

The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract the Iranian people?

Most likely!!!

One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to blame someone.

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