Thursday, September 6, 2012






















ERDOGAN REDEFINES THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT.

You can find several versions of this story on the web, but only a few picked up on the real issue... the PKK...


Ergogan's frustration with the West, namely the US, is also beginning to show up more an more frequently.

His comment in his CNN interview that ' perhaps' the US November elections has something to do with the lack of movement', is a subtle but deliberate shot at the US.

Having said this, lets get down to brass tacks about the Middle East.

This might not go over well with many of the leaders there, but  the simple fact is very few countries in the Middle East really care about " Refugee issues".

If you don't believe me, I would ask you to look at the Palestinian " Refugee Camps".

The Palestinians can't own land, they can't have citizenship in countries where most of them under the age of 40 were born and raised.

Now, those countries will say something like, " we cannot give them citisenship because that would be admitting to Israel the Palestinian State will never exist"!!!!..

Right!!!

The truth of the matter is, they don't want these "nomads" sticking around, voting and beginning to place demands on the governments where they live.

Again, just go ask the Palestinians who live in Lebanon how they are treated... or try Jordan.

Erdogan is far more concerned about the destabilizing factor these Syrian refugees bring to the tribal areas of Turkey then he is about their overall welfare.

Unfortunately, that is not the issue that caused his statement about Syria being a Terrorist run state.

The truth of the matter is the issue that keeps Erdogan up at night is the PKK and the Kurds!

A Kurdish uprising, a Kurdish Spring, is a true nightmare to Turkey.

Erdogan also realizes Assad has decided to support the PKK given Assad's knowledge of the Turkish support to the Syrian rebels.

Here is what I believe Erdogan is really up to when he relabeled the Syrian government.

His attempts to get the West to support a " No Fly Zone".. a flawed   concept by the way, has gone nowhere.

If Erdogan could have achieved a " Safe Zone / No Fly Zone" in Northern Syria, the ability of the Kurds to strike out on their own would have been severely impacted.

Without this outside support, the idea of Turkey moving on Syria unilaterally was unachievable and would have ended in a political trap for Erdogan's party.  

Knowing this  "Safe Zone" concept of keeping the Kurds in check is not going to work, Erdogan has redefined what the problem is in Syria.

Terrorism!!! The key concept that Erdogan hopes will unlock the door to military action in Syria.

Think about it.

To create a " Free Zone / No Fly Zone / the outside world would have to openly risk war with Iran / Iraq and Syria and everyone knows it.. that's why nobody will vote for it.. .the Russians and the Chinese are doing the rest of the world a favor and at the same time taking the heat....... Ingenious on our part!!!!

But, when you change the topic to " Terrorism" we suddenly redefine what is allowed.

In the war on Terrorism, we are allowed to conduct ' limited strikes' inside someone's country without committing to a full scale operation; think of the US operations in Pakistan as a prime example.

A drone strike here.. a cruse missile there and the next thing you know, Assad is knocked from a balance of power without a committed / sanctioned operation in Syria.

The lovely world of ambiguous Terrorism operations.

Erdogan is a good student and he knows this process may just give him what he needs... the right to fly into Syrian airspace... take out PKK sites in Syria and yet not be accused of attacking the Assad regime.

Remember, Iran doesn't want a war with Turkey, they can't afford it!

If the Iranians believe Turkey is taking action on Syrian land but it's limited to the PKK, it may just tell Assad to sit tight...

Remember... Iran has no love for the Kurdish issue as well.

Erdogan has one issue on his mind right now when it comes to Syria and that is the Kurdish issue.

He loves the idea of oil trade with them, thereby controlling their economic pace, but the idea of Kurds forming a Kurdistan is completely out of the question and he will not allow that concept to take root   inside Syria.

The refugee issue is a false issue in the Middle East, unless you are talking about their ability to create unrest in the countries where they flee.

The Kurds are issue number one in Turkey and that is an issue that will be dealt with one way or another. 

No comments:

Post a Comment