CORONAVIURS 

SOMETIMES, THERE ARE NO EASY CHOICES

I haven't posted in over a week and for good reason. I didn't feel like it. Nope. I was not sick. I just wanted to watch this crisis play out for a week or more to see what the real issue might become. I had a good idea what might take place as you see, I've been down this road before. Here are two questions that seem to have virtually no value right now, but just can't seem to go away. 

1. How did this happen? 

2. Did leadership, all over the world, react too slowly? 

Here is the issue. the answers don't matter, at least not right now. 

Here is the question that truly matters. 

3. What is going to happen? 

If we can get at least a basic understanding of what this answer might be, we can determine what level of effort needs to take place and what area that effort needs to be focused on. 

So, here we go folks. Here is my down and dirty and my down and dirty is based on, "Been there....done that" at levels, you don't want to know. 

Risk Analysis:

For two weeks now, all I've heard are MSM "experts", political "experts", academic "experts" and frankly, I'm "experted out! Look, everything any of you has heard has to be based on one simple concept, a concept I've not heard one talking-head mention. Risk Analysis. What is that? Let me give you a cheat sheet version. 

Risk Analysis. When you look at an issue and you weigh the danger of not responding or over-responding. When you look at this concept up, you will find all kinds of prior military, thinktank, academic definitions and if you have time for reading that level of fluff, be my quest. 

Have governments, at all levels, all over the world, utilized this concept? Yes, but some may not have done a very good job or worse, some weight certain factors at a greater value than they really are, especially to the public. Risk Analysis is very...very.....subjective and that leads to problems, problems that come from the interpretation of statements and guidance and that leads to perceptions that become reality. If that's not bad enough, in truly free nations, political rivals find a way to twist issues for the sake of political advantage. You see, Risk Analysis is a vital tool in a time of crisis, but it's the decision-makers that come to the wrong conclusions, even when the data is there. 

Alright. What does this discussion mean to you right now? How does this post make life easier or clearer for you? Let me take a shot at what really matters. Back to the real question. 

Where are we going:

What is the death rate? Now that a much larger scale of testing is coming out, it seems the actual death rate is lower than all the "experts" scared us to death over. If it holds true, it seems the rate is 1 percent or less. So, let me ask a simple question. Can we continue to drive the world's economy over the cliff, a cliff that soon will take decades to recover from? Do we continue to do this for the sake of a virus that has a 1 percent mortality rate? We have already damaged the global economy to a point most "experts" are not sure what the real damage is. 

Before you paint me as insensitive, know this. I am over 60, I am in the High-Risk category given my battle with cancer. I am part of that 1 percent that is being killed by this virus. Now that I have that out of the way, let me paint an even more dangerous picture for you. Let me show you what a world in economic ruin looks like. Let me show you why President Trump's statement about how even more people could be killed by the crash than the virus; a comment that had the MSM's heads spinning. 

It was 1935 and my Mother was 14 yrs old. She and her family ate a meal with meat in it once every three days. They lived on apx 800 calories a day. Her family were farmers and worked outside. 800 calories didn't get you to noon. Let industry fall apart in the US/world. Let this interconnected, global market/economy fall apart and the repercussions are far greater than 1 percent. Sound like an ugly statement? Good, it was meant to be ugly! Here is the real problem. Back in the 30s, the global markets were not interconnected, yet the depression shook the whole world. Here is another ugly statement. If you think World War II didn't come about because of the depression, then you studied a different version of history than I did. Yes, the world was exhausted from WWI, but the desperation of the German people was brought on by the global depression. Enter.....Hitler! Does anyone truly believe that we can risk what is left of our new global economy for the sake of people like me? Can 1 percent of the population drive the other 99 percent into a destabilized world, a world that will go to war to find a way out of the crisis? Yes, folks. We will see a world that will stumble into a war if we don't get back to work. Will the US or China or Russia, well maybe not China, start a conflict to save what is left of their economy? What keeps a society loyal to the government? What makes a nation desperate? Unemployment, starvation, and the list goes on. No, the US and other large nations may not start a conflict, but nations far more desperate a year from now, two years from now, what about them? Can you read this post and tell yourself, "it won't happen!" By the way, that was the sentiment in England, France, and even the US around 1933/34. 

Yes, President Trump alluded to something yesterday. Yes, the MSM ran around the room with their hair on fire, but the point is relevant.  We must.................must perform a true Risk Assessment on what needs to happen. I will tell you this. This process has taken place with the US leadership, at least at the White House, and the dangers they now see from a continued freefalling economy is far more damaging and dangerous than the virus. Sound insensitive? Sorry, these are very insensitive times and by the way, I am part of that 1 percent.