TEHRAN STRIKES

After the events of last night, I am overwhelmed by the volume of opinions, some of them being my own:) What happened? What next? These are the two questions that need to be answered, but not in that order. So, let me take a stab at these two topics, realizing I’m typing this prior to the US President’s statement this morning. 

What Next: 

 Did Tehran deliberately miss key US locations? I heard an interesting comment last night, one I let slip past as I was watching events unfold. It seems the two sties that were nearly struck, not struck, but nearly, where both in areas where the Sunni population and the Kurdish population are dominant. Deliberate act on Tehran’s part? Most likely. It also seems the opinion most want to support is based upon Tehran attack was designed to keep escalation from taking place. Does that mean Tehran has completed their operations? No. Does that mean, like most “experts” stated last night, the next actions will be more conventional, terrorist type events and not kinetic warfare? No. Look, what took place last night might have been designed to limit the escalation of a conflict, but one important factor must be added before that concept can prove to be effective. I very smart man once told me, “ The other side gets a vote”! That’s right along the lines of another old truism. “ No plan survives contact with the enemy”. The intent of the Iranian military may have been to prevent escalation, but was that the intent of Khamenei? Did he not state the attack was not enough? What did that mean? Did his own military, IRGC, limit the orders they were given? Is he calling President Trump’s bluff? Are we, “out of the woods on this event? 

If you break it down to the most simplistic stance, here is what Tehran, don’t know if it’s Khamenei or his military, is saying. “ Take our attack. Don’t do anything in return. Let us have our parade and declare the Great Satan was punished and better not respond. Do all of this and “we”, who I don’t really know, won’t make it worse for you”! Does that sound like a message President Trump is likely to accept? Again, I’m typing this prior to the President’s address today. 

Off Ramp: 

Does DC and Tehran want an Off Ramp? You can bet the Iranian military does. They fully realize what the next phase could mean to them. By the way, if there is a next phase, look for a large percentage of the Iranian Air-force to land in a Gulf State. Yep, massive defection.  Yes, it seems many do want an Off Ramp, but the question becomes, as it always is, what are the terms? “Eat this and do nothing”. That’s the message from Tehran. Those terms won’t go over well in the White House. So, is that it, does the US strike back? Let me give you an alternative, and one I mentioned last night on Twitter.

That was Pathetic:

“ Last night, Iran attempted to attack our forces in Iraq with a pathetic show of force utilizing junk military equipment. They blew holes in the dirt and we killed their number one Terrorist. Some say they missed deliberately to keep the situation under control. The fact is, they knew not to push too far or the US would destroy them”.  If that’s not the words President Trump uses, than he is missing a golden opportunity. Now, I have to really speed this up before he gives his speech and I look like a dummy for missing the opportunity for showing I predicted his words. Make Team Khamenei look like incompetent cowards and leave it at that. Let the next move be theirs. Let them see how that statement plays in the MSM and Social Media. Let us watch the MSM lose their minds if President Trump takes this approach. Yep. Laugh at them and say, “is that all you got”? 

What Happened:

Okay, let me wrap this up with a down and dirty, “what happened” review. 

1. The US knew the shots were coming from Iran.The US has  realtime intelligence over country and there is nothing Tehran can do about it. As those launchers were stood up, The US knew it. The defensive posture of the US forces was at full readiness. Oh ya, the four missiles that didn’t make it, A crap design or maintenance or a new way of brining them down. You can bet the ranch the Russians and the Chinese are digging through the data to see just what happened to those four.  

2. Did we launch air assets, most likely and let me tell you why. One of the most tactically sound ways to get your enemy to expose their air defenses is to run right at them. As soon as the radars light up, the locations are placed in a target package and if needed the radar sites disappear. If we put our air assets up last night for such a mission, a large number of  IRGC air defense units need new underwear today. Oh ya. Can they track our aircraft in “passive mode”? Yes, but that doesn’t matter. It takes a split second to get the information needed to kill the site. 

3. Backdoor communications took place. Any Iranian Commander, who talks to the Russian military inside Syria or Iran, had the capability to get the “truth” to the US. “ We are going to attack, but it’s simply a show of force with no intent to create escalation”. Would the Russians try to prevent a real shooting war between the US and Tehran? Read my blog post from yesterday. Did the Pentagon get word the event was going to take place? Most likely. Did the US already know? Yes, see number 1 above. Did the additional information keep the US from responding? It’s possible. 

4. What took place last night was not only predicted, it was observed as Tehran was getting ready. The MSM may have been surprised and they wasted no time blaming President Trump for the beginning of WWIII! 

5. Finally. I must make a very important point, one that we cannot overlook. As all of this was going on last night, the new US Socialist party, formally known as the Democratic Party, along with the MSM / MSNBC / CNN / BBC / became hysterical over the beginning of a conflict, “endless war”, all because President Trump is “irrational”, CNN words. Who watched this? Who took notes on the continued decay of US unity? Team Khamenei? Yes and as bad as that is for the US, that’s not the worst of it. On the other side of the world, a Dragon watches from it’s den as it’s future meals squabble. How did those four missiles come down? Nothing will be taken for granted!