Soleimani and Moscow
Do the Russians really care?
It is not a news flash that Soleimani was a key player to Moscow. So, when the US blew him up, what did the Russian think? How upset are they? Do they really care? Yesterday I covered the options Tehran might consider. In http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2020/01/tehrans-options-yesterday-my-topic-of.html?m=1
In that post, I mentioned I would address the relationship and consequences of the Soleimani incident. So, here we go!
Bromance:
As I have stated time and time again on this blog site, the “ bromance” between the Russians and Tehran is a complete farce. To Moscow, Tehran is a proxy puppet, and what makes that statement really ugly is the fact Tehran knows it. Not only does Moscow see Tehran as the capital of a puppet kingdom, that very kingdom hates the puppet master. I’ll condense at least two dozen blog post from the past five years into a simple paragraph. The old men in Tehran, Team Khamenei, are determined to set the course of the region based upon the desires of Tehran. Moscow is determined to use the Middle East’s as a leverage point against the US / West. Moscow is even more determined to regulate the oil and gas from the region given that is the live blood of Russian economy. Simply put, we have two very different goals held by two countries that claim to be “ allies”. Russia and Iran being allies. It’s kinda like two Mafia Bosses stating they have joined hands! They may say it. They may take pictures together, but at the end of the day, they hate each other.
Soleimani:
Old news; Soleimani was a closer to Moscow than many in Tehran were comfortable with. Old news; Moscow saw Soleimani as the guy who Moscow could manipulate when the time came to do so. Short answer; many in Tehran envied Soleimani and many didn’t trust him, and he was a key player to the Russians. Where does that lead us? If we accept these statements, then what was the opinion in Moscow when the US blew their “boy” up? As I said two days ago, in Moscow, Soleimani was a great tool, but he was expendable. So, let me avoid just rehashing old statements. Let’s get down to the process of predictive analysis of how Moscow’s plans may have changed.
Putin Takes a Trip:
The Tsar takes a trip to Syria and does so right after their “Boy” is blown up by the President Trump. Now, if someone was to state this trip was a result of the assassination, the answer would undoubtedly be, “no! It was planned”. That’s the answer every government gives when they quickly travel somewhere before or after a major event. Why did Putin travel to Damascus? Simple. It’s the right time to send a message. “As we have told you time and time again, we will determine the fate of Syria not you”. Incase you didn’t catch it, that’s the “message” from Moscow to Tehran. That’s been the message since the day the Russians showed up in Syria and Team Khamenei knows it. The struggle for control of Syria is not between the West and Tehran. The struggle is between Moscow and Tehran. So, the question becomes, who does Assad side with, and let me tell you, that’s a very dangerous question for the Eye Doctor.
Did Putin attend the funeral of Soleimani? No. did anyone from Moscow travel to this staged event? I bet not. What’s the message there? Where did Russia travel to? Yep, Syria. Are you starting to get the picture here? It seems the loss of Moscow’s “Boy” was not that big of a deal? Why? Is there a backup, “Boy”? How could there not be? Does the death of Soleimani simply not register inside of Moscow? Actually, it does, but not in a way you might think.
Leverage:
When it comes to major global powers, what is the game this is played every hour of everyday of every week, year after year after year? Yep. The game of leverage. Soleimani’s death was somewhat of a setback for Moscow, but like every good strategic player, that setback was quickly turned into leverage. What is Tehran’s ability to resist Moscow’s operations in Syria right now? What is Team Khamenei more preoccupied with; the Syrian plan or preparation for a possible conflict with the US and perhaps Israel? What happened to the price of oil, at least temporarily? Who economy is based on oil and gas? What is the global opinion of the US’s assassination of Soleimani? Did the level of division inside the US political system increase? All of these things are leverage points in favor of whom? Yep, Moscow. Now, do the Russians want to see a shooting war between the US / Israel and Team Khamenei? No. Would the price of fuel go through the roof? Yes, but the overall economic impact, long term, would not be to the advantage of Russia, so the answer is no. The leverage from this assassination is a golden opportunity for the Russians and why should they mess that up?
Avoiding conflict:
Can the Russians prevent a shooting war between the US and Tehran? Not really. Can they offer the US an alternative to such a war? Yes. How so? Is Moscow’s only communications with Team Khamenei through the old men in Tehran? No. One aspect of the Bromance between Russia and Iran is somewhat off the radar. The interactions between the Russian and Iranian military is greatly underestimated. If Moscow understood the limited relationship it would have with Team Khamenei, it also understood the value of keeping key players in Iran’s military linked to Team Putin. Is there a replacement “Boy”? I would bank on it. Does Moscow have the ability to manipulate the next government in Iran? Well, they have a far better chance than the US the rest of the world does.
I will make this as simple as possible. If Team Trump realizes Team Putin can change the future of Iran’s leadership and by doing so, avoid a war that could rival anything that has taken place in the region in over a 100 years, then that option is most likely on the table. Is Team Trump opposed to leaving Iran in Moscow’s proxy bucket? The NEOCONS and the Deep State may be opposed to such a option, but President Trump get’s the final vote.
The Price Tag:
If Team Putin can offer the Off Ramp for a potential war with Iran, then we need to ask ourselves, what is the price tag for such an offer? Yes, avoiding such a war is good for the Russian economy, but is that all Moscow settles for? If the world is desperate to keep this possible conflict from taking place, just what is the world ready to offer? Folks, this is how the global game works. If the US believes that a major conflict with Tehran is becoming more and more likely, then Off Ramps are critical. Moscow can set the fate of Iran as long as the US and the rest of the world can live with how that new course comes about. A coup, another assassination, support to another round of youthful protest. All of these events would find the blame being placed on the US, but if the real leg work was done by some other nation, would that really matter? “ Regime Change”! Yep, Trump would get the blame for that as well, but a future Iran that is not pursuing nuclear weapons, not calling for the destruction of Israel and not burning the American flag, that’s the new Iran everyone desires, to include the future leadership inside Iran, it’s youth! Who makes this happen and what is the price tag? I would bet you Moscow already has a sales pitched ready to place on the table. My opinion. Let’s sit down and see how much this car cost!
In that post, I mentioned I would address the relationship and consequences of the Soleimani incident. So, here we go!
Bromance:
As I have stated time and time again on this blog site, the “ bromance” between the Russians and Tehran is a complete farce. To Moscow, Tehran is a proxy puppet, and what makes that statement really ugly is the fact Tehran knows it. Not only does Moscow see Tehran as the capital of a puppet kingdom, that very kingdom hates the puppet master. I’ll condense at least two dozen blog post from the past five years into a simple paragraph. The old men in Tehran, Team Khamenei, are determined to set the course of the region based upon the desires of Tehran. Moscow is determined to use the Middle East’s as a leverage point against the US / West. Moscow is even more determined to regulate the oil and gas from the region given that is the live blood of Russian economy. Simply put, we have two very different goals held by two countries that claim to be “ allies”. Russia and Iran being allies. It’s kinda like two Mafia Bosses stating they have joined hands! They may say it. They may take pictures together, but at the end of the day, they hate each other.
Soleimani:
Old news; Soleimani was a closer to Moscow than many in Tehran were comfortable with. Old news; Moscow saw Soleimani as the guy who Moscow could manipulate when the time came to do so. Short answer; many in Tehran envied Soleimani and many didn’t trust him, and he was a key player to the Russians. Where does that lead us? If we accept these statements, then what was the opinion in Moscow when the US blew their “boy” up? As I said two days ago, in Moscow, Soleimani was a great tool, but he was expendable. So, let me avoid just rehashing old statements. Let’s get down to the process of predictive analysis of how Moscow’s plans may have changed.
Putin Takes a Trip:
The Tsar takes a trip to Syria and does so right after their “Boy” is blown up by the President Trump. Now, if someone was to state this trip was a result of the assassination, the answer would undoubtedly be, “no! It was planned”. That’s the answer every government gives when they quickly travel somewhere before or after a major event. Why did Putin travel to Damascus? Simple. It’s the right time to send a message. “As we have told you time and time again, we will determine the fate of Syria not you”. Incase you didn’t catch it, that’s the “message” from Moscow to Tehran. That’s been the message since the day the Russians showed up in Syria and Team Khamenei knows it. The struggle for control of Syria is not between the West and Tehran. The struggle is between Moscow and Tehran. So, the question becomes, who does Assad side with, and let me tell you, that’s a very dangerous question for the Eye Doctor.
Did Putin attend the funeral of Soleimani? No. did anyone from Moscow travel to this staged event? I bet not. What’s the message there? Where did Russia travel to? Yep, Syria. Are you starting to get the picture here? It seems the loss of Moscow’s “Boy” was not that big of a deal? Why? Is there a backup, “Boy”? How could there not be? Does the death of Soleimani simply not register inside of Moscow? Actually, it does, but not in a way you might think.
Leverage:
When it comes to major global powers, what is the game this is played every hour of everyday of every week, year after year after year? Yep. The game of leverage. Soleimani’s death was somewhat of a setback for Moscow, but like every good strategic player, that setback was quickly turned into leverage. What is Tehran’s ability to resist Moscow’s operations in Syria right now? What is Team Khamenei more preoccupied with; the Syrian plan or preparation for a possible conflict with the US and perhaps Israel? What happened to the price of oil, at least temporarily? Who economy is based on oil and gas? What is the global opinion of the US’s assassination of Soleimani? Did the level of division inside the US political system increase? All of these things are leverage points in favor of whom? Yep, Moscow. Now, do the Russians want to see a shooting war between the US / Israel and Team Khamenei? No. Would the price of fuel go through the roof? Yes, but the overall economic impact, long term, would not be to the advantage of Russia, so the answer is no. The leverage from this assassination is a golden opportunity for the Russians and why should they mess that up?
Avoiding conflict:
Can the Russians prevent a shooting war between the US and Tehran? Not really. Can they offer the US an alternative to such a war? Yes. How so? Is Moscow’s only communications with Team Khamenei through the old men in Tehran? No. One aspect of the Bromance between Russia and Iran is somewhat off the radar. The interactions between the Russian and Iranian military is greatly underestimated. If Moscow understood the limited relationship it would have with Team Khamenei, it also understood the value of keeping key players in Iran’s military linked to Team Putin. Is there a replacement “Boy”? I would bank on it. Does Moscow have the ability to manipulate the next government in Iran? Well, they have a far better chance than the US the rest of the world does.
I will make this as simple as possible. If Team Trump realizes Team Putin can change the future of Iran’s leadership and by doing so, avoid a war that could rival anything that has taken place in the region in over a 100 years, then that option is most likely on the table. Is Team Trump opposed to leaving Iran in Moscow’s proxy bucket? The NEOCONS and the Deep State may be opposed to such a option, but President Trump get’s the final vote.
The Price Tag:
If Team Putin can offer the Off Ramp for a potential war with Iran, then we need to ask ourselves, what is the price tag for such an offer? Yes, avoiding such a war is good for the Russian economy, but is that all Moscow settles for? If the world is desperate to keep this possible conflict from taking place, just what is the world ready to offer? Folks, this is how the global game works. If the US believes that a major conflict with Tehran is becoming more and more likely, then Off Ramps are critical. Moscow can set the fate of Iran as long as the US and the rest of the world can live with how that new course comes about. A coup, another assassination, support to another round of youthful protest. All of these events would find the blame being placed on the US, but if the real leg work was done by some other nation, would that really matter? “ Regime Change”! Yep, Trump would get the blame for that as well, but a future Iran that is not pursuing nuclear weapons, not calling for the destruction of Israel and not burning the American flag, that’s the new Iran everyone desires, to include the future leadership inside Iran, it’s youth! Who makes this happen and what is the price tag? I would bet you Moscow already has a sales pitched ready to place on the table. My opinion. Let’s sit down and see how much this car cost!
No comments:
Post a Comment