THE SPIRAL OF MEXICO.

On three different occasions this week, I came across speeches given by the Mexican President that seemed a little out of the ordinary. I use the word ordinary because, typically, AMLO's narrative never changes. " My programs are going to change Mexico." Well, if you follow my blog, you know I happen to agree with him. He is "changing Mexico." He's driving Mexico to a "change." He is pushing it over a cliff! But this week, it seems the change agent went on the defense. Lately, the narrative seems to be shifting; only this time, the change is one I know he doesn't want to make. "It's not my fault......I inherited this mess". For over a week now, this is the new approach of AMLO. The question is, why? 

Honeymoon:

For months after AMLO's election, people speculated on how long the honeymoon would last. His morning press conferences seemed to be a continuation of his pie in the ski promises to the Mexican people, mainly the poor. But, over the past few months, some of us have noticed a slight change, not in AMLO's pitch, but in the euphoric attitude the press had towards him. With a murder rate that set a record and with the economic downturn, one that is now worrying a growing percentage of the business world, See the 3 links attached, AMLO is beginning to understand the honeymoon may be coming to an end. If that perception is becoming a reality, then that explains his change in approach. His quest to place Captains of Industry heads on a pike, giving the poor something to hate, continues. You can anticipate growing negativity towards capital investment inside Mexico, except China, and their goal has nothing to do with economic prosperity for Mexico. AMLO tells the Mexican people he is out to end the corruption inside Mexico's government and it's economy, but is always the case with Revolutionaries, the process will also drastically change the nation. " I'm doing this for the good of the people." It's the battle cry of everyone Tryranical leader in the history of the human race.

Does everyone want to sink:

Why is a growing percentage of the media in Mexico asking AMLO harder and harder questions? Why are they asking for measurable actions and not just listening to his Academic speeches? Here is my answer. It's because crime is out of control, people are being murdered at an ever-increasing rate and business, the economy is heading down the drain. The problem with Socialistic, Revolutionary speeches is, they all sound lovely and inspiring, until the reality sets in. I love an old saying I saw a few days ago. " The problem with Socialism is, you can vote yourself into it, but you have to shoot your way out!" 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/ngo-sees-potential-for-cartel-insurgency/

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hostility-is-scaring-away-investment/
https://www.ft.com/content/e5739928-ec58-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55

THE DEAL OF THE CENTURY

NOW, WHAT? 

Impeachment trials in DC. Corruption charges in Israel. A virus. Does the world really have time to pay attention to yet another "deal" over the topic of Israel and the Palestinians? I can name you one capital where the topic is smack dab in the middle of worrying about the "Deal of the Century." Tehran. 

The Mullah's dreams:

What happens if the cover story for the Mullah's aggression in the region is gone? If the Arab nations stop listening, and most already have, to the "Evil Semites," speeches from Tehran, how in the world is Tehran going to push their agenda to the Arab people? You know............how will the Persians be able to gain control over the Arab population, a population that is taking over Iran? Yes, the Persian Mullahs have a colossal demographics problem, and they know it. The land of the once-mighty Persian Empire will someday be ruled by Arabs. Time marches on, but not for the Mullahs, at least not if they can help it. 

In the past forty years, the catalyst for every expansionistic act Tehran has been base on the premise of doing battle with the nation of Isreal. Israel; the nation that took the land of the Muslim Arabs. Israel, the nation that bombs babies. Israel, the nation that takes all the water in a desert region. I could go on and on, but, the point is clear. With the hatred for Israel, what is the foundation of Tehran's fear tactic? Can the Mullahs in Tehran allow this so-called "deal of the Century" to become a reality? Better question. How can they stop Trump's next attempt to bring down the leadership of Iran and have no doubt, that is precisely what Tehran believes this deal is all about. Proxies. Let's talk about proxies and the orders they have already been given. 

The Counter move: 

If we assume Tehran will do anything it can to prevent the "deal," then what options do they have? As I stated just a minute ago, the first option is the Mullah's proxies. Islamic Jihad? Hamas, or should I say factions inside Hamas? Hezbollah? Can any of these groups create an event that kills the "deal"? Here is where the story gets fascinating. For well over two years, the heavy lifting of this "deal" has been taking place. Conversations have taken place in Saudi, Jordan, Egypt, and several of the Gulf Nations. For almost a year, the rumors have been flying that several vital Arab nations were coming on board with the concepts inside the "deal." Who tracked these conversations? You bet, Tehran. What agreements have been reached and who with? Tehran knows, and if they don't know, they are assuming and we all know what happens when we assume! 

To Tehran, the "deal" has been signed, but can the coconspirators actually pull it off? Just how easy would it be to create an environment where it all fell apart? That's where the proxies come in. Just a few days ago, several key members of the Palestinian leadership called for massive protest. Threaten to leak who has been skimming off the top of the Palestinian people and suddenly you have more proxies. This morning, the IDF was told to prepare for immediate threats from the reaction to the official unveiling of the "deal". Was that order based on the verbiage of a few Tehran supporters inside the Palestinians? No. Intelligence is always the bases for IDF operations. 

Let there be no doubt, a large percentage of the Palestinian people, youth, are not going to accept the "deal". That reality makes the process of violence a much easier task for Tehran. Will there be violence? I can assure you there will be a great deal of violence, at least for a short period of time. Money solves a lot of issues in the world and money is how the violence will be countered. Tehran can threaten and even pay some to cause trouble, but the future King of Saudi has much deeper pockets and putting a few extra zeros in a series of nameless bank accounts is a tact already underway. Here is the reality of the pending violence. People can get upset, they can burn tires, toss stones, shoot guns, but at the end of the day, if the nations in the region fear Tehran more than they care about a Palestinian state, then those people on the streets are waisting their time. 

The Deal Timeline: 

The US President is giving Israel and the Palestinians a few short weeks to make the "deal" work. My question is this, what is the definition of, "work"? In my wildest dreams, I can't imagine in just a few short weeks, the ability for Tehran to influence the key issue of the region will disappear. This short time frame sounds like a typical Trump, business pressure tactic. Will it work? Most of what takes place in the business world doesn't translate into the realm of geopolitical agreements. To political leaders, handshakes and promises are those things you do in front of the camera and then you leave and do whatever you were going to do in the first place. This timeline seems like a destruction failsafe for Team Trump. "Do it and do it quickly or I am out of here"! This "deal" has been cooking for over two years and if you know President Trump by now, you realize one thing; working on something for two years is about 23 months too long. To me, the timeline is a simple way of saying, Put up or shut up".  The question becomes, who is President Trump addressing? The Israelis or the Palestinians. As a reminder, the leadership of the Palestinian, at least one faction, refused to show up for today's big event. Show the map, move the IDF forces, and the next thing you know, the deal is done, at least on the part of Israel. 

No statehood, no peace: 

Rumor has it, the " deal" doesn't address the issue of Palestinian statehood, at least not yet. If there was any issue Tehran will latch onto, it's that one. No statehood, no peace. By the way, the definition of "statehood" includes, from the Palestinian viewpoint, a city that Isreal will NEVER give up! You know, heading into this "deal", at face value, it seems like Tehran has a strong hand. It won't be hard to manipulate young dead Palestinian bodies on the world news. A few rockets from Gaza into Israel and the next thing you know the MSM is shouting from the rooftops what a dismal failure Trump's plan was. Better yet, "the violence is Trump's fault". You can bet the " we hate Trump" networks may mention the "deal" is officially out, but until the violence starts, the fulltime coverage and expert commentaries will not take place.

Has the issue of statehood been part of the two-year process? Yes. will the Arab nation's agreed-upon definition meet the dreams of the Palestinian people? No. Do the Gulf nations care? No. Does Tehran have a plan to create tension inside these Gulf nations if they do support the "deal",  a deal with no statehood attached? You bet they do. Do the Gulf nations know this? Yep. You see.................the region is a very complicated story and right now, I think the Mullahs are plotting big.....big trouble. "No statehood, No peace". That might even become the battle cry inside the US and Europe. We shall see very, very soon! 

Moscow! Where is Moscow on this "deal"? Now there is a topic for another day! 

CORONAVIRUS 

A DOWN TO EARTH UPDATE

Two topics today. 1. The down and dirty, pertinent facts, so far, on the Coronavirus. 2. What China is doing, and why? 

Down and Dirty: 

Lethality rate: Currently at 4% ( estimate based on truthfulness of Beijing).

Issue: SARS started with a low lethality rate, but climbed to 15% with a 50% rate for people over 64yrs of age. As a reminder. The more people infected, the more mutations the virus goes through. 

Contagious rate: Bad news here. People infected seem to be contagious prior to becoming symptomatic. This makes containment very....very difficult. 

Issue: That makes containment very difficult. 

What China is doing and why:

These two statements may offend some, but it needs to said. 

1.  Is Beijing more worried about the economic impact of this outbreak? Yes. What country wouldn't be?  

2.  Is Xi more concerned about the world's perception of how  China's handling of this event? In my opinion, this is "the" issue for Xi. China. The nation that is driving towards being the next world leader. Does this outbreak impact that vision? Yes. Can it get much worse? Yes, way worse. Is China's public opinion a concern to Xi? Not really. Is China's economic power influencing the decisions and public announcement from the World Health Organization, WHO? Yes. The geopolitical impact on the WHO is always a factor, and thus, this is not a unique event with China. Does the influence on the WHO impact the future of this outbreak? Yes, but when events like these get to a critical stage, much like the Bird Flu scare, many nations take actions regardless of the WHO's input. In the US, the Center for Dease Control works closely with the WHO, but in the end, if decisions are to be made, they will come from  DC and the State's capitals. This reality holds true for other nations as well. Is that good news? Not always. 

Beijing is worried about the image, and that image will be based upon how they attempt to respond to the viral outbreak. Shutting off large parts of China is a dramatic move that generates a great deal of attention and with that attention come fear and worse, rumors. " People are dying and just falling in the streets." That's just one, "rumor" Rumors. The can quickly become more dangerous than the actual virus. 

What to watch for: 

Focus on one issue. Do some reputable organizations make the statement the lethality rate is increasing?  We know people with preexisting health issues are at a higher risk, but that is true with any virus. We know the elderly and the very young are typically more at risk. What we need to pay attention to is an increase in the lethality rate of middle-aged, healthy people. As I said in my last post. Know your local, state, and federal plans. Once you know those, you can build your own plan. Let's pray we don't need one, but it's never a bad idea to plan, at least to the level of thinking things through. 

PS. If you see me come on here and start talking about the concept of "Immortals" and "Social distancing," it's time to have that plan. 

CORONAVIRUS 

What the facts mean.

The world continues to talk more and more about the Coronavirus? Why? Is the virus a true threat to mankind? Should be wall be ready to seal our doors and hide in our homes? As a person who has worked Pandemic planning, it's important to remember one key issue. Do NOT get your perceptions of this event from the media, to include social media. In the US, the Center for Dease Control / CDC/ has an excellent website already running for this event. For the rest of the world, The World Health Organization/ WHO/  is doing the same.  For the people of China, well, you have a problem! Not only are you in ground zero, you have a leader who is more concerned about the image of China than saving a few elderly people in remote areas. The fact of the matter is the image of China as the next global leader rest with how this pandemic, and it is a pandemic,  event unfolds. Can Xi show the world China can deal with such an event? What happens if China fails, besides an untold number of people dying across the globe? Can Xi keep China from taking the blame? Can Xi keep China from falling back into the image of a nation that is nothing more than a few modern cities with the other BILLION people living in medieval times? Yes, folks, the virus threat is one issue, but to Xi, his place in history may become based upon something he never dreamed of; The leader who allowed the world to suffer a Pandemic. 

The Facts: 

Let me jump off of the Xi's image issue and concentrate on a few problems that the media loves to scare the public with. Why does the media do this? Simple, sponsors love high volume audiences, so sensational stories get people to read and watch. Yep, it's about the money! 

Human to Human: 

Is this new virus, "Human to human"? According to the CDC and WHO, they see no signs of that being a factual statement, yet and I want to emphasize the word "yet." The truth is, they are quietly worried the indicators show it to be human to human, but saying that officially is a very.....very...geopolitical process. If it is declared to be human to human, the next question becomes lethality rates. 

How deadly:

What I read this morning was somewhat disturbing compared to my impressions only two days ago. It was reported 800 confirmed cases, with 30 fatalities. Now, when it comes to the issue of lethality rates, you need to stick to the details. 1. At this time, a few important caveats, it appears only 25% of those who do become infected and categorized as severe. 2. The majority of the fatalities have come from people who were already in some state of compromise health-wise. So, when you put this all together, it sounds like a mild flu season. Here is the catch. Viruses mutate, and the more people who become sick, the more options the virus has to mutate into some more deadly form. Look up the Flu of 1918. The second real caveat comes from the fact this virus has no effective vaccination, and that makes it a very serious issue if the lethality rate jumps. One last fact. Viruses are unsuccessful if they mutate into something that kills their host. They burn out.  

Worried Sick:

Once the people hear enough about a virus, they begin to think they may have it. We called this phenomenon the "Worried Sick." Show enough videos of overrun hospitals, airports filled with people wearing masks and media stories about "rumors," and the worried sick phenomenon takes hold. If you are paying attention to the news out of China, this event is already in full swing. If medical teams don't have a sound plan or just don't follow that plan, they run themselves into the ground, and the facility becomes ineffective. This is also taking place in China. As I write this post, the images of this happening in China are all over social media. 

Containment / Incubation: 

Are the sick contagious prior to showing signs of being sick? Contagion before symptomatic that is the real big problem with this new virus. If someone is contagious but not showing signs of being sick, then they can travel to any part of the world. This is almost always how viruses spread from their point of origin. China understood this, and this reality was most likely one of the key factors in why these closed off the cities infected. Does it work? Rarely! Containment is, in my experience, one of the most ineffective ways to contain the event. What this tactic is very successful at is reducing the number of people who may continue to spread the virus. That is why the measure is taken. Short answer; containment slows the fight; it doesn't defeat the enemy. Two things to watch for are the WHO announcing the incubation to contagious ratio and the contagious to the symptomatic period. 

The danger of Perceptions:

There is one thing it seems the media cannot control. They can't stop playing the "What if" game. 

What if the virus goes super killer? What if we can't find a vaccine..what if....what if...? Let the media keep this dangerous game up, and the next thing you know, panic is the order of the day. People make a run on the stores, gas, medicines ect....ect ...ect. Here is the really sick part, the media then turns that panic into the lead story. Don't believe me? Have you ever seen the news when a large Hurricane is about to hit?  At that point, the "worried sick" at medical facilities turn into a mob. Everyone wants something, and they want it now! It's this false reality the world can quickly fall into that worries me, and I know it concerns many governments. It's the reason they become reluctant to give out potential bad news, and once the media senses government has taken that approach, they move the crisis into the next phase; "the government is withholding information." 

When I worked the Bird Flu scare, I was amazed at just how fast social order could breakdown. I had just returned from the Middle East, and I didn't understand civilian planning. Once I was exposed to the complexities of how day to day life works, it became clear to me just how fragile the system was. The one concept I was familiar with was this; failures taking place at the most simplistic levels almost always lead to a much larger disaster. Complex societies are incredibly dependent on normality. Let people become panicked, and disruption takes place almost immediately. Again, Hurricanes are a prime example, but on a much smaller scale compared to pandemics. 

Look, the fact is, this new virus may or may not be the killer the experts have been warning of, but one issue is clear. In a world of instantaneous communications,24/7/365/ with a global audience of 3 to 4 BILLION, perceptions form reality. Can we scare ourselves into a real crisis? With the Bird Flu and Swine Flu incidents a few years ago, I've witnessed US leadership coming so close to panic. Where is this all heading? Can we allow social media, reluctant governments, profit-driven media outlets to shape the reality we must all live in? Let me give you an alternative. Let me give you the best advice I can. 

My Advice: 

  

1. Pay attention to the official statements by the WHO and in the US, the CDC. Follow their social media and websites. Turn off any news story about panic and "what if" discussions. 

2. Know your local plan, even if you think it may not be followed in a crisis, not it. In the US, that means your local, state health websites. Look for the topic of pandemic planning. Search for keywords such as Strategic National Stockpile, distribution points, social distancing. 

3. Know your national plan. In the US. Here is the site you need to take the time to read.

https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2016/04/sns-key-to-protecting-the-nations-health/

Here is the link to the CDC's tracking of the current virus event. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

For those outside the US, here is the link to the World Health Organization's tracking site. 

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

Finally, it's essential to not be confused by the media. Know the facts, follow the facts, and know the plan. When you know the plan, you can build your own plan. 

BUTTERFLIES AND CARTELS

"If we, the US, would stop the militarization of the War on Drugs, the violence would go away". 

"If we legalized drugs, the violence would go away". 

What us the counter to these two schools of thought? 

" This is just the dopeheads wanting their drugs legally". 

" This is just a group of ideological liberals thinking they can wish away the problem". 

There may be other statements from both sides of the issue, but I wanted to use the two most common to make my point, and this time around, my point is myopic. You know my focus rest with the events in Mexico and you know I have this focus given it is Mexico that can create a true Mass Migration event. Stop the militarization of the fight against the terrorist cartels and the illegal drug industry and everything gets better in Mexico. Wrong! Wrong and here is why. 

Money to be made:

It's hard to address the issues of Mexico and do so for several years without coming back to the same examples. So, let me give you something I've said time and time again. Are drugs the only way the terrorist cartels make money? What about the theft of fuels, huge amounts of fuels, so large, the terrorist cartels run their own gas stations? Human trafficking? How many times have I asked you this question? How do thousands of people walk into terrorist cartel controlled territory, along the border with the US, and not pay the peso?  Answer; they do pay. Human Trafficking. It's a huge and growing business for terrorist cartels and the money train doesn't stop there. Natural resources. Have you paid attention to the impact the terrorist cartels have had on the Avacodo industry in Mexico? In regions of Mexico, the run the Avacado farms. Timber. This butterfly activist is now missing over timber, and we all know what, "missing" in Mexico really means. Mr. Gomez has openly challenged the issue of illegal logging. Here is the problem; the terrorist cartels in that area have decided to make money from illegally harvesting timber. End result; Mr. Gomez is now, "missing". By the way, the number of Mexican citizens classified as, "missing" is alarming. "Stop the militarization of the fight on drugs and the violence will go away"? That is an argument that has absolutely no validity. 

The Real Issue: 

"If the government can take whatever they want when they want, then so can we"! Is that a direct statement from one of the terrorist cartel bosses? It might as well be. In a nation that has a crippled judicial system and an overwhelmed law enforcement network that reports to corrupt leadership, what example is being set for the youth of the terrorist cartels? Would an 18-year-old male or now even female not look at the system around them and say, "why not"? What does the middle class of Mexico think when they hear the story of almost an entire police department being detained for questioning; the same department that was detained less than two years earlier? It's not just the youth of Mexico that sees no light at the end of the tunnel. The people who I refer to as the glue of Mexico, the middle class, the light they see in the tunnel is fading and fading fast. 

AMLO's Promises: 

Can a better economic environment decrease the speed at which the light in the tunnel is fading? Yes, but even that potential positive is in deep trouble. Here is the problem. Mexico's President is anti-private investment and as such, he is anti-business. Is this something I made up? No. 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-falls-off-list-of-10-most-attractive-countries-for-investment/

In simple terms, this global organization states AMLO is bad for business in Mexico. Again, here is the bad news. AMLO wears this stance like a badge of honor. The "Rich" are evil. Corporations are the reason the poor are poor. He proudly calls himself a Revolutionary and there is no doubt he demands the redistribution of wealth in Mexico and honestly, everywhere.  Is this the environment for capital growth? Just what perception does this create for those youthful Mexicans who can't see any light in their future? AMLO is closing the door on any chance of the violence in Mexico subsiding and it seems he knows it. What is he looking to achieve for Mexico? Can he turn the youth of Mexico into a revolutionary movement? In my opinion, that is exactly where AMLO is heading. Remember the other day when I made the comment about AMLO's statement during the CELAC meeting in Mexico? " Mexico is the Big Brother of Latin America and the Caribbean". 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2020/01/amlo-and-celac-true-colors-flying-back.html

The other day, Mexico's President, in his morning press conference, made a statement. He said the purpose of government is to make the people happy. Are kids marching on the grounds of Mexico's universities and cities AMLO's definition of, "happiness"? Have the terrorist cartels and their actions become the fuel for Big Brother's vision for Latin America? Stopping the violence in Mexico doesn't seem to be the goal. Using the violence and a dismantled economy to reach revolutionary status, is that the goal? You want to see a mass migration event unlike anything witnessed in the Americas, let Mexico fall into another revolution against the "Rich...... Corrupt leadership" of Mexico. 

AMLO'S VISION FOR MEXICO

THE BOOK TELLS THE REAL STORY.

People love to write about what the world should look like and AMLO is no different.
" A New Hope for Mexico", AMLO's vision of what is wrong with Mexico and what he believes should take place to change the future of his beloved country, that's his book. Here is something you may or may not realize. When egomaniacs, especially political ones, write books, they often show a side of them they may or may not wish you to know. Once they start rambling on a keyboard, they often get into things some of their, "handlers" don't agree with, but those same people are almost always too afraid to say anything, or just ignored. This seems to be the case with Mr. AMLO, but before I move on, let me ask a question you can come back to at the end of this post. How often has one nation's vision become the obstacle to another's? Is AMLO's "vision" compatible with the US? I've asked this before, but it's probably the most critical question for both nations as they strive to move forward.

AMLO's true feelings about Capitalism and the US:

The following statement was made by AMLO while visiting the US during his Presidental campaign.

“We must convince and persuade those who were brainwashed by Trump’s campaign rhetoric… We must reach out to lower- and middle-class American workers, explaining that their problems are rooted in the poor distribution of income… We must raise awareness among Americans of good faith who have been tricked by the propaganda campaign against Mexicans and foreigners….”

Does this sound like the words of someone who is willing to work with the current US administration? When he said, " reach out to lower and middle class "American workers", was he simply addressing Hispanic Americans/ Mexican Americans? Poor distribution of income, what concept of governance do those words come from? It's not a news flash AMLO is a Socialist, but again, the issue of compatible visions comes into play. Can the US work with AMLO? If you hear DC talk, the relationship is just fine. So what if he took a swipe at capitalism and Trump and his "brainwashing". It's all just politics, right? Well, in AMLO's case it is just that, but he also proves, old alliances are a matter of convenience.

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/01/01/amloa-attempt-to-transform-mexico/

AMLO AND SLIM/ BILLY:

Has the richest man in Mexico been involved in the drug world? according to the US Department of Drug Enforcement / DEA/ the answer is yes.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/opinion/The-Mexican-Billionaire-Even-Ex-Presidents-Fear-Talking-About--20151201-0019.html

Carlos slim / Billy / and AMLO have worked together for years. Carlos had money and AMLO needed to look good while he was coming up through the system. A relationship of mutual benefit. Not anything new in the world of politics, but then something changed. AMLO Won, finally! It seems now, Slim's programs are not well received by the new Mexican President. We must remember, Slim is one of that evil Capitalists that robs from the poor and gives to the rich and that is unacceptable unless you need his money to move your agenda forward.
https://latinamericanpost.com/28153-how-good-is-the-relationship-between-carlos-slim-and-amlo

The illegal drug market is a 100 BILLION US dollar a year event and that's money that can go into a lot of projects, "visions" if needed. So, for all his talk about the poor and the evils of Capitalism, AMLO exemplifies an old expression; " Deeds before words". He hates the greedy, corrupt rich, but he will use them to get where he is wanting to go. Yep, that's the world of politics, but here is the next question. What else is AMLO willing to do as he attempts to reshape the future of Mexico?  Here is just one statement from his book:

“In Mexico, the governing class constitutes a gang of plunderers…the astounding dishonesty of the neoliberal period (from 1983 to the present) is wholly unprecedented.”

The Evil Rich: 

The, "Governing class" are plunderers? I guess that includes his onetime friend, Slim. Besides students with brains 1/4 ready for the real world and the poor, Mexico has REAL poor people, not the "poor" some in the US complain about, who is going to get on this radical new train AMLO is engineering? His own economic advisor warns his Boss is not good for future business in Mexico. Where is AMLO going to get all the money his new vision of Mexico is going to cost if he openly states he hates the evil rich Capitalist? 100 BILLION dollar drug industry.........don't forget that point.

“The first thing we must do is to democratize the state and retool it as an engine of political, economic and social growth. We must rid ourselves of the myth that development requires blind acquiescence to market forces… Mexico will not grow strong if our public institutions remain at the service of the wealthy elites.”

Here is another example of my point about people revealing too much. Start a book and the next thing you know, you have painted a picture you cannot avoid. "Wealthy Elites"? That must be an extension of that, "Governing class" he talks about.

Before I wrap this up, let me show you a statement from his book that just floored me.
The abandonment of Mexico's rural areas? He must not be talking about the areas of Mexico where the terrorist cartels rule the land? If anyone has abandoned the people in the "rural areas" of Mexico, it's AMLO. Can you walk into a town dressed like an indigenous person, talk about free medicine and schools while the people are recovering from the nightly cartel's violence. Seeing the nation through the eyes of a dreamer, that's what his book should have been titled. 
“The abandonment of our rural areas has taken a heavy toll on production, has increased migration, and fostered societal breakdown and violence.”

AMLO's Train: 

The President of Mexico dreams of taking his nation in a new direction. He believes he is laying the tracks for this Mexican Dream Train and he believes he is the engineer as well as the architect. Here is why this will be a very..........very dangerous trip. He has cast aside those that will build the economic bridge that train must cross. I'm not sure the team, that has been cast aside, will want that bridge to hold! 

Mexico's Military 

Unsupported 

Last week, I moved back to the topic of Mexico. If you follow my post, you know why. After I completed my most recent post on Mexico, I began to think, again, about the status of what worries me the most; the morale of the Mexican Military. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-mexican-military.html

I posted the story, link above, back in September of last year, before the issue over the statement made by retired General Gaytan Ochoa. I've voiced my concerns over the issue of Mexico's military's morale on several occasions. At the risk of sounding repetitive, I want to expound upon the issues that could be driving the morale of the troops to dangerous levels, could!  I realize it seems as if I am stuck on this topic, but let me attempt to show you an additional issue that may help you understand my fears. Let me show you the world the young men and women of the Mexican Military face every day of the week, week in and week out.....month after month.....year after year. Let me show you what true leadership of SEDENA must live with and why people like General Gaytan Ochoa felt compelled to speak out. 

This is what is referred to as a "Monster Truck." It one of the vehicles the terrorist cartels utilize in Mexico to force their will on the Mexican people. It's what they use to fight each other, and more importantly, it's a vehicle that is sometimes used to fight the Mexican authorities. It's designed to take heavy small arms fire and allow it's occupants to stay inside, mounted to us, military background members. Against everyday, civilian law enforcement in Mexico, it earns its nickname. 

This is a picture of what the military is provided in almost every instance to patrol with. The expression goes, " a picture is worth a thousand words." This is a civilian pickup truck. It has tires that will go flat when shot. Almost all of them have little to no armor. It is not designed to fight from; thus, the unit members must dismount, get away from, the vehicle. At the end of the day, this vehicle is a death trap. To the troops, it's a statement on commitment. In my opinion, this tactic is a disgrace! It's worse than a disgrace. Putting those who intend to defend Mexico from terrorist groups that typically have superior firepower, in these painted, civilian vehicles is nothing short of betrayal. Here is the part of this story that absolutely infuriates me. This failed support has been going on for almost two decades. 

Several years ago, I had a conversation with an individual who had the ability to address this issue. Although he agreed the optic appeared negative, the reality was the decision to keep this approach was based on a more significant concern; the concern of the public's perception.  Back in the early 2000s, when the then Mexican President decided to place the military on the streets to offset the violence, and honestly, to address the issue of the public's trust in local / state law enforcement, many of us realized where this would take Mexico. The problem was, Mexico City truly believed it was the only alternative they had, and I'm afraid they were correct. It was the lesser of two evils, not because the military was evil, but because the repercussions of the tactic were going to be harsh. As an old friend of mine once said, "The military is designed to kill people and break things"! When you get right down to it, that's a fairly accurate statement. So you see, the leadership of Mexico feared public perception, and thus the military was placed in a nonmilitary environment to include weapons, tactics and equipment, vehicles. Solve the problem, but do so with limited authority and limited support. Yes, Mexico City tried to pound a square shape into a round hole. Nearly twenty years later, young soldiers climb into the back of pickup trucks as they attempt to fulfill the role of Law Enforcement against an enemy that roams the countryside in "Monster Trucks." Is this perception totally accurate? Perhaps not. I commanded armed troops for sixteen consecutive years. I think I know a thing or two about unit morale. 

Hard Facts:

Again, let me sound repetitive. Since the decision was made to put the military on the streets of Mexico, incidents of abuse of power, and other horrendous criminal acts have surfaced. Mexico City was and is desperate to stabilize the nation, a nation that is becoming more destabilized. Corruption exists at every level of Mexico's leadership, to include the military. When unit level military members are led by corrupt leadership, at all levels, and they know it, what does anyone think the outcome would be? Here is the reality. The vast majority of the Mexican Military and Civilian Law Enforcement do their jobs against the odds of corruption and intimidation, and they do so because they love their country. They have their honor and their integrity, despite everything that goes on around them, to include being sent into violent events on top of pickup trucks. They realize their own public grows more skeptical of the military's actions, yet they understand the cost of giving up. The good people of Mexico get up in the morning and drive on. They refuse to give up, at least not yet. These men and women of integrity and honor also have leaders who have lived by the code of loyalty. Loyalty to not just Mexico City, but to Mexico, and there is the danger I keep coming back to. At what point in time do the men and women who give everything for a better future for Mexico decide they can no longer pick up the flag? Worse, at what point in time do they decide they must change the course of Mexico's future? Is there a point in time when the concept of a Coup or a revolution justified? Doesn't that depend on the minds of those who contemplate these events? Pickup Trucks. It sounds like a minuscule issue. Is it? 

AMLO AND THE CELAC 

TRUE COLORS FLYING! 

Back to the issue of Mexico and it’s leader, who seems to be heading in a direction the US is not concerned with. Have I been down this road before? Yes. Is some of what I’m about to say going to seem like, “old news”? Yes. Does that equate into, “nothing to worry about here”? Let me tell this story and you be the judge of what is important. 

CELAC:

The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. What is it? Sounds harmless right? Have you ever heard the acronym leading off the evening news? Probably not. I could write for hours on what the history of this group means to the US and the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean, but in order to save time, let me give you my typical, down and dirty. To the US and some of it’s allies, CELAC is a Communist, Socialist, Revolutionary based concept with one goal in mind; pushing the US influence out of the region. Who might support such a concept? I’ll get to that, but be thinking Dragons in the meantime. Okay, the counter viewpoint. To the social Revolutionaries of Latin America and the Caribbean, CELAC is an attempt to get out from under the thumb of the US. So, it sounds like the two viewpoints are not that far apart. Now, to be clear, not all the supporters of CELAC see the US as the enemy. Some see it as an opportunity to make economic gains, yet keep a Democratic, free market concept. To the US, this group of nations provide a real opportunity to influence what is taking place inside the minds of the CELAC movement. Is that a polite way of saying, “spies”, maybe. If someone is pushing the CELAC concept while DC believes it’s a threat to the US’s status in the region, you can bet the IC hears everything! By the way, CELAC advocates love to talk! 

If you are asking yourself, “why did this issue of CELAC come up”, I’ll tell you. Who has taken on the revitalization of the CELAC movement as it’s Champion? Yep, AMLO! 

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/mexico-takes-action-on-coup-in-bolivia-and-bolsters-celac/

Hugo and CELAC: 

When the concept of CELAC fist got going, who was it’s biggest supporter? Hugo Chavez. When Chavez died, the movement seemed to slow dramatically. Besides losing Hugo as the Boss, CELAC suffered from the US countering the movement, as it had others in the past. Inroads were archived with several key nations in the region by the US and the energy behind CELAC slowed significantly. 

Then, along comes the newest, “Revolutionary” in the region; AMLO. Hugo was seen as one of the Founding Fathers, but now, AMLO sees himself as the leader of the, “Big Brother” for Latin America and the Caribbean. ( See the link above for his statement about, Big Brother. 

AMLO’s vision:

Here comes that, down that road before, issue I mentioned at the beginning. What happens when some of AMLO’s economic experts openly publish statement about him being bad for business in Mexico? https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hostility-is-scaring-away-investment/

What is AMLO’s vision of Mexico’s future? Does he call himself a,”Revolutionary” just for the drama? AMLO taken up the Mantle of CELAC, yet the US President openly states they are good friends and he likes the guy; key word here, openly! AMLO appears to have caved to the issue of illegal immigration /  Refugees, you pick, and the US’s concerns with Mexico’s lack of support. AMLO went along with the new trade agreement, USMCA and that made the US happy. Is that all the US is worried about? “Keep the flow of people into the US under some appearance of control, like the trade agreement we showed you and everything between us is okay”? AMLO is a smart cookie. His organized march on Mexico City after he lost the elections was a masterful operation. Here is the story of that lost through the eyes of  Aljazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/mexico-president-elect-amlo-lost-2006-elections-due-rigging-181005051815702.html

 At face value, its appears the Mexican Revolutionary President is getting along with the Gringos in DC just fine.

Is AMLO playing the US? It’s a question I ask myself all the time. Let me give you an example of why this question keeps popping up in my head. Mexico appears to be addressing the issue of illegal migration / Refugees / you pick again. Mexico appears to address the immediate concerns of DC, but then what? The drug market is out of control in the US and lives are being lost not just in Mexico, but in the US and honestly, all over the world. What actions has AMLO taken to stem the tide of this drug world? What has he done to address the fact the cartels in Mexico have become Terrorist Organizations? Let me make this really ugly. Does he want to? Does he truly want the violence in Mexico to stop? Hugs? Is that it? Is that his plan? He says it is. Does he actually want the violence in Mexico to get worse? What does a true Revolution require.Social unrest and a collapsed economy, that’s what a revolution needs. He won’t stop the terrorist cartels. He has his own economic expert openly stating he is bad for economic growth. Does any of this worry you? Well, at least, now you know why I continue to ask myself, “ is AMLO playing the US”? If he sees Mexico as the, “Big Brother” of Latin America and the Caribbean and he now heads the CELAC organization, an organization that is designed to counter the US, then just what is his vision of Mexico’s future? At the beginning of this post, I asked you to keep the word, Dragon” on your mind. Let me tell you why I asked you to do so.

CELAC and China:

There is this thing called the CELAC and China Initiative. Just the title should set off alarm bells in DC, but who knows. The classic, BRI, Bridge and Road Initiative, is once again the doorway to China’s influence in a region. BRI, what many in the business world, mostly the Western Business World are revering to as a money trap. Is Beijing interested in the economic opportunities of Latin America? How could it not be? Is China interested in weakening the US’s status in the world? How could it not be? Is China’s interest in CELAC a two pronged approach? Yep, how could it not be? Who knows this? DC? Yes, at least you would think. If you are a true socialist Revolutionary, would not Communist China be a great place to build a relationship, especially  when that potential partner has a ton of money they are eager to spend?  Xi visited Latin America in 2014 and his government has been all over the region for the past decade. Is Beijing out to promote the status of the US in Latin America and the Caribbean? Just a few days ago, The Chines Embassador to Mexico made a public announcement stating China was putting 600 million dollars into AMLO’s pet project; a new oil refinery. Here is the problem, Mexico claimed they didn’t know anything about it. China playing Mexico to get at DC? Maybe. AMLO’s government, not wanting to admit, “outside” money for the project after tell the US, Mexico didn’t need any help? This is an interesting story. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-china-refinery/chinese-banks-providing-financing-for-mexican-refinery-ambassador-idUSKBN1ZC2FM

Where is AMLO taking Mexico and is it in a direction that is conducive to the US? Should he be worried about that statement? I can tell you what he better be worried about, and it is actually a two part statement. 1. He better pray the terrorist cartels don’t create an event on US soil that leads to true US anger. 2. He better be careful walking into the Dragon’s Lair. If he thinks the US has manipulated the region, he’s not seen anything yet.

IMMIGRATION 

AN OPEN ENDED CONVERSATION.  

Judge Messitte has ruled against the State of Texas’ stance of no longer allowing, “refugees” into the state. Messitte states, Governor Abbot’s stance is not good for the overall public interest! Is this a big thing, or is just another day in ever changing world of the United States? What’s that old saying about straw and the Camel’s back? Is this ruling straw? Does anyone know when one side of this argument over immigration believes they have had enough? How do you judge when that moment in time comes? Does it build over a period of time, or does some monumental event take place that changes one side’s view to the point something breaks?  What is the “public’s interest” on the issue of “refugees”. What is the difference between a “Refugee”....... an Illegal or just anyone else who shows up because things are just not good enough to stay where they came from? Yes, there are legal differences between the two categories, but does that resonate with Farmer Joe, or Joe Sixpack? Refugees. Refugees from what and do the people who live outside the large cities and their suburbs truly understand the topic of, “Refugees”? Better yet, do they even care? Here is the reality of this conversation. Like everything else in the US, this topic is just another political / ideological/ football. Here is the problem, and it’s a very real problem. The people of “flyover country”, well, they don’t have time for political footballs. What they do have time for is perception, and that issue of perception is feeding a divide in the US that could reach crisis level. So, is it big deal Judge Messitte, appointed by President Clinton and the guy who when nuts over the name of the Washington Redskins, has shot down the Texas Governor’s decision? Yes, yes it is. 

Refugees:

I’ve been down this road several times, but as a guy who has been all over this world, I think I have the right to answer the question of, ‘what is a Refugee”? Was the US made from “Refugees”? That’s the core argument you will get form those who support letting everyone come to the US. Is there some validity to the stance? Yes, but with a huge caveat. Those that left Europe for reasons of oppression were the minority. Most of the people who came to the US did so for opportunity, opportunities they didn’t have in Europe. Is that a “Refugee”? Was the story of oppression the real reason the US was settled, or did it just make good history? The truth is, most people came to the land now called the US, with the exception of the slaves, for the chance to make a better life. So, is that it? Is that what this current, “Refugee” issue is truly all about? Are people coming here for a better life? How many of you have actually seen the investigative process for determining, “Refugee” status? Better yet, how many politicians are knowledgeable on the process? Remember, it’s a football, not a fact finding mission. 

What’s the magic number: 

If you ask those who support the issue of “Refugees”, “What is the magic number? When has the US allowed the right amount of ‘Refugees’ in”? Have you ever heard any of the supporters this question? I am sure someone has, but I don’t know what they response is. In the world today, we are coming up on 8 BILLION people. In China alone it’s reported that over 300 MILLION people still live in caves. No footnotes here. Just look it up. Just how many, “Refugees” are there? Yes, the US government has strict guidelines on how to vet a, “Refugee”, but it seems both political parties in the US feel this process is too slow and too restrictive. Football.....think football! In 2018, the State of Texas took in more, “Refugees” than any other state in the US. Has Texas done it’s duty? If Messitte believes the public interest is still not being served, then how many more should Texas let in? What’s the plan? Oh ya, let me touch on a topic that we seem to forget about. Is it true the organizations that support, “Refugees” have been caught coaching the, “Refugees” on what to say in the interview process? Are there other agendas there? You bet. 

The Refugee value: 

Many of the groups that support the, “Refugee” process are religious based. Three of the groups that filed with Messitte are just that. Why? Let me give you two schools of thought and you decide what one is more plausible. 1. It’s the word of God to help others in time of need. 2. The population of Europe and the US who attend Church has been decreasing rapidly and bringing these people in is a way to Slow that statistic. Save them and they will follow you. Sound ugly? Yes. Are some of you going to stop reading my post based on this statement? Remember, I said, I will let you decide. Is the, “Refugee” issue based on self interest? With the Churches, I won’t say, but with the US politicians, Football....think Football! 

What value do the, “Refugees” bring to the US? Future voters? Doctors, Lawyers....oh no, no  “Refugee” Lawyers! Cheap labor? Do they bring morals and values that mirror the US? Okay, now there is a comment I deliberately made. If you forcibly change the demographics of an area’s population, do the values and morals change? Was that not true of Boston when the Irish came into the US as, “Refugees”? Yes, yes they were, “Refugees”, economic, “Refugees” who provided cheap labor! At the core of the, “Refugee” issue, one question stands clear. Does increasing the number of, “Refugees” into the US make the US a better nation?  Note: Pay attention to the fact I titled this post with the words, “ Open Conversation”! 

The Cost of Refugees:

Yesterday, a Mexican Drug Terrorist Cartel member was found inside the US along the border with Mexico. He had been shot several times and had to be flown to a Hospital. http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2020/01/blood-trail-leads-to-suspected-mexican.html
Who pays this bill? The Mexican Conciliate? Do the cartel members have healthcare? Yes, I know, the compassionate thing to do is give this Terrorist care. Multiple gun shot wounds and helicopter airlift? Do you have an idea of what that cost? Was this guy a, “Refugee”? You can bet he will make the argument, if he lived. If the US becomes the, refugee camp for the world, who pays the bills? You know the answer. Just how much compassion can the US economy stand? As the cost grows, Is the US public willing to continue this concept? If so, what part of the population? The large Cities, Universities, fly over country? Back to the begging of this conversation. How divided is the US on the issue of, “Refugees”?

When we hear the word cost, most of us think in terms of dollars. Let’s take a look at another category on the topic of cost. I have a good friend who has tried for nearly two years to have a civil court case heard. It’s a case where a gold digging women took the money of my friend’s dying Father. Every time he heads for a hearing, it’s kicked down the road. Why? Because this District Judge is overrun with illegal’s criminal cases and criminal cases take priority over civil issues.  Now, to those who love the idea of, “ Refugees” being allowed to flow into the US, almost all would say, “Undocumented”, a word they use, “ people have their rights inside the US”. Rights? The rights provided by the US Constitution? Are they talking about the universal rights of Humans? It doesn’t really matter. Their stance is this. If the person steps foot on US soil, it’s their right to have every privilege and, “right” of a US citizen. You don’t believe me? Have you every listen to those who support, “Undocumented Persons”? What is the perception of my friend, a person who spent his whole life in Law Enforcement? Should his case be heard before the, “ Undocumented’s”? If it’s a criminal case, my friend said, “No”, his case should not have priority. Sacrifice for the sake of trying to hold together a legal system that is strained by bureaucratic procedures and the crimes committed by People who are not here legally. Sound selfish? It sounds like just another example of the US population sacrificing for the actions of others, others who are not from here.

Danger: 

Now, I realize by this point, some of you think there is a Rebel Flag and perhaps a Swastika hanging in my house. By the way, the Rebel flag is based upon the word, “Rebellious”, you know, the word the US is founded upon. We were, “Rebels” when we founded this nation and we were Rebels when we attempted to tear the nation apart in a Civil War. Rebels, those who come to the conclusion they must fight for what they believe in, even when they don’t want to. Who is right and who is wrong, when a rebellious issue cannot be avoided? That depends on what side you take, and that folks has been true for over 5,000 years.

Is there a danger of the US becoming a rebellious society? Is the issue of, “refugees” and “ Undocumented” people dividing the nation to the point of violence? Are these two issues just straw? How strong is the US’s Camel’s back? Is one political ideology disingenuous in their sympathy for the, Unfair” part of the world? I love that word, “Unfair”....as in, “Not fair”. Is the other party in the US really not that upset over the topic, but pretends to be? Is that why nothing seems to happen? How many times have we seen politician’s lips flapping as they make the sounds of, immigration reform? Who’s paying attention to just how wide the divide over the topic of “Refugees....Undocumented” people is becoming? Texas’s Governor was told no by a federal judge in another part of the US. Just how much longer before the straw gets too heavy? What happens if the Governor of Texas informs Judge Messite, “go pound sand” In the meantime, my friend sits and waits for the Southern County District Jude in Texas to find a few minutes when he is not working illegal...sorry..... “Undocumented” criminal cases? I watched a Camel get hit struck by a truck in Saudi once. It was not a pretty sight. Maybe that was an Omen?

CHINA AND THE UNAVOIDABLE WAR

I read the article, link attached at the end,  and before I get started, let me just say what a joy it was to finally find out who has been writing some of the better stories for Asia Times. Yes I know, all I had to do is look at the bottom of the articles and I would have learned of Grant Newsham months ago. Having admitted my oversight, it’s now evident Grant is a person worth paying attention to. 

After I finished his story on a war between Taiwan and China, my most resounding fear came back to me. Folks, the US, and whoever else wishes to fight, has a war coming and it’s unlike any war we have seen in the history of the human race. How does it start? I took a shot at that topic in my book,  https://www.amazon.com/SECOND-DARK-AGES-unofficial-Review-ebook/dp/B07YP1LTYM 

What Grant Newsham has accomplished ,so brilliantly, is to provide a realistic glimpse at yet another scenario, leading to a war with China. So, before I dive into this post, let me just say, if you don’t read Grant Newsham’s work, you need to. 

Taiwan: 

I’ve asked this question before on this blog site, but let me ask it again. Is the US willing to fight a war over Taiwan? Newsham paints a very realistic picture of what might force the US and others to enter such a war, but would the people truly follow the government’s lead? When the US entered World War I and II, the nation was divided and as such, it’s logical to assume the US would take on a war with China even with the US population was against the conflict. It’s happened before.

Here is the reality Grant Newsham brings home. Wars don’t just start because both sides decide to have a fight. Most wars start when one side decides they see an advantage from war or they see no option but war. Hint,  the advantage scenario almost always has not negotiation period, or such a period does take place and the passive approach by the opposition emboldens the aggressor. Think about that approach for a minuet and then say the word, Tehran.

Yes, the other side of a conflict has the option of just saying no to the fight and letting the aggressor take what it wants. Grant address this scenario over the issue of Taiwan and does so with dire results. He also brought an issue to the table that cannot be overlooked. I is not afraid to go to war. He and his military commanders may even desire some event that sends a message to the world, “ We have taken the lead”! When Grant mentions Xi’s comments in January of 2019 ,the argument over what stance China is taking is over. I remember reading the translation of that speech and thinking to myself, “here they come”.  Would China start a war over Taiwan? The answer is most likely, yes.

Fight now or fight later: 

If we accept the theory China would be willing to fight a war over Taiwan, a war that could lead to a global war, then shouldn’t we pick the time of that event? If you read my book, you now my theory. The West simply keeps kicking the China conflict down the road until it’s too late. When Grant Newsham argues there is mostly likely no way to avoid this fight, then we need to consider exactly what that means. His recommendation the US and others stand up to China now is exactly the right approach. Here is the fatal flaw in Grant’s statement. The current leadership in DC is too consumed with internal politics to find the unity required to address the China crisis. In the Western corporate world, there is only one goal, breaking into the 1.5 BILLION persons market China represents. Thinking of or even planning for a conflict is not on the radar of those who pay for the political campaigns in the US.

As I said before, Grant Newsham hit’s the nails on the head when he states many in China are itching to show their might to the rest of the world. Nationalism runs high in parts of China, not all parts, but some. This nationalistic stance is spearheaded by Xi’s and many of his military commanders. Folks, that is a recipe for war. So, in the case of Taiwan, here is the ground truth. China is willing to go to war over Taiwan. Taiwan just reflected a President, Thai Ingwen, who demands, “Mainland China” respect Taiwan’s independence. Does this sound like the unloveable object headed towards the unstable object? A little good news here. This story has been going on for a few decades. Did I call that good news? Let me be honest, it may not be good news. The, “ Ah....it’s been going on for ever.....they always talk that way”, viewpoint is another key ingredient for war. China has changed. It’s military has changed drastically. The old, “ ah....bla...bla...bla”, theory is just plain dangerous.

Is there a good time to have a war, a war that could go nuclear? The realty is, the answer is yes. If you look at history, many conflict have started based upon the concept of, “ if we don’t fight them now, we cannot beat them later”. Paradoxically, the two greatest wars of the human race were the result of Progressives simply not wanting to take the hard road to lasting peace. FDR, the King of the Progressive movement, avoided entering WWII and he avoided taking hard actions against the rising power of the Nazis. It wasn’t just FDR. All of Europe wanted to avoid yet another war in Europe and besides, the German build up in the 30s was good for business. Sound familiar? Pay attention to Newsham’s comment about US CEOs.

You can’t wish bad times away. You cant make aggressive leaders and nations into pacifist with nothing more than words. Please, don’t get me started by suggesting economic sanctions can do the job. Take a look at the relationship between Japan and the US In the 1930s. How did that work out? You can make bad leaders and bad times go away with words, but you can use certain words to make sure these people understand where you stand. Newsham is correct in his statement the US should make it clear to China what the US is willing to do if China starts a war anywhere. Stand right in Xi’s face now, while he may still flinch, at least for a few years, or simply anticipate the time is coming when he and his nation will care less if someone stands in their face. Trump’s arm sales to Taiwan, that’s standing in Xi’s face. to the Telatubbies of the Left, that’s the actions of a crazy man and the Dragon, well, I would be it loves the taste of Teletubbies. Susan Thornton, that’s just one of the Teletubbies Newsham makes an exemplar of. Hard times folks. Hard times with no easy answers.

Cracks in the Armor:

I’m fairly certain I’ve gone down this next road before, but here we go.  Just how Nationalistic is China? Just how willing are 1.5 Billion people to go to war, a war that could set China back hundreds of years? Does Xi avoid the Taiwan, US, issue because he fears the public’s wrath? No. So, is the support of the Chinese People an issue that may prevent a war? Xi dosn’t fear the opinion people now, but how about in the future, the near future? Why is the issue of protest in Hong Kong so troublesome to Xi? Why not just go in and crush the issue? Newsham made a comment about ramifications on a global scale if China attacks Taiwan, more importantly, he mentioned something Xi will not admit. China has a growing population of people who have grown addicted to the Capitalistic  lifestyle. Yes, forty years ago, China set out to turn the Capitalistic concept into a weapon. They witnessed the flaws of true Communism, if it was true, in the Soviet Union. The plan became, “use the Western economy and our controlled involvement, to get the world addicted to China and it’s goods”. That planned worked too well. The leadership in Beijing moved so close to the flame of the West, some of the people in China turned into the Capitalistic  Colonialists China despised. Yes folks, there is a virus growing in China. It may be weak, but it continues to mutate and at some point, it will become deadly to Xi and his vision. Remember. I was the one who stated the Arab Spring was a virus. Freedom of thought, freedom of movement and freedom of expression, these are the foundations of humans. The US Founding Fathers got it right and Xi how’s this. China has cracks in it’s armor. They may not change the course of the nation in the near future, but the trend is there and it’s based on something Xi cannons afford to stop; money! China used the weapon of an open market to trap corporate America and others, and it worked. But, when they developed that “virus” they didn’t realize the most common theme of Science Fiction movies. The “Virus” was exposed to it’s own population. What does this mean? How does this explanation of China’s mistake impact a potential war with the US and others? Sorry, here is where the news gets real bad. The one person who knows the Virus is spreading inside of China’s population is Xi and his commanders. In reality, many of his own military’s senior leadership have already been infected. Time is not on Xi’s side. Waiting for Trump to leave office is not the answer. Waiting until the Chinese military is so superior to the US is a timeline too long. The clock is ticking and Xi knows it. Sometimes, you just have to fight! The trick is, be ready for that fight. Don’t be Neville Chamberlain, for that is what Xi is counting on. Stand up...get in his face before it’s too late.




https://www.jpolrisk.com/war-in-the-taiwan-strait-is-not-unthinkable-some-will-lose-more-than-others/

MEXICO. 

IT’S NOT OFF THE RADAR. 

If you follow me, you know my desire to continually asses the stability of Mexico? Why? If the US wants to witness a true Mass Migration, just let Mexico become a true failed state. I’ve been addressing the events in the Middle East for the past week or so, but something just told me I needed to get back on the topic of Mexico. The day to day violence is almost so common place, no one pays attention, with the exception of my friend Jaeson Jones. Whatever it was that compelled me to swing back to my topic of desire must have had good intel. As soon as I checked my standard reading sites, the issue of what I should write towards just about knocked me out of my chair. So, here we go! 

Changing the System: 

It appears Mexico is once again attempting to find a new approach to it’s ever growing violence levels. Has this concept of, “ changing the system”, been tried before? Yep. In fact, every Mexican President in the past 20 years has found a way to, “change the system”, in an effort to make Mexico safer. How many have succeeded? You know the answer. Alright, let me give you a list of the latest changes Mexico City is going to institute. Hint; one of them is more frightening than the rest and I bet you can figure out which one that might be:  ).

1. Mexico is going to change the, “ Culture of Impunity”. My question; whose “Culture”? The political elite who laundry the drug money? Ya...right! 

2. AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION!     How. Now that’s a question the Mexican people may want greater detail on prior to the vote. Will that happen? Don’t hold your breath. 

3. A new criminal code: Wait...what? A new criminal code or amendments to the existing one? The press release said, “ A new criminal code”. Again, do you think the people of Mexico might want to know what “new” criminal code they are going to live under? 

4. New Procedures: That makes sense. If you are going to have a new criminal code, you will most likely need new procedures. Here is one they might want to try. Validate the Law Enforcement agencies. I know, that’s a stretch. Besides, what good are honest Cops when you have a corrupt legal system and government? Maybe that new criminal code will fix that. By the way, do any of the US citizens know how much money was wasted on the programed called the Merida Initiative? Now there was an attempt at “change” in Mexico. 

5. Modify existing laws: Strange. If you have a new criminal code, do you need “modified laws”? What laws will be modified? What are those modifications? Yep. The Mexican people issue agin. 

6. Change the legal framework of the Mexican Attorney General’s Office, to include, “regulations”.  You know, but his point, doesn’t it seem like AMLO is just tying to start all over? Clear the chalkboard and start fresh. Then again, he is a self proclaimed “Revolutionary”. Perhaps this is the next phase of his grand plan for Mexico? Scary? You bet, especially for the Mexican people. 

Well, there you have it. A comprehensive list of all the changes Mexico City is going to implement, all in the name of keeping the people safe. History is excellent teacher. How many tyrannical leaders have implemented vast changes all in the name of, “The people”? 

A few hard facts: 

Mexico’s stability; that’s my point of analysis. What are the indicators that Mexico may fall into a real crisis? When you get into this business, you have one real tool that never seems to fail you. Trends! Trends are events based on facts, facts most governments hate to be seen by their public and facts that make it impossible to come up with yet another political talking point. Here are a few facts that I tracked for Mexico. Here are some numbers no one in Mexico City can sweep under the rug. 

1. The Murder rate in Mexico in 2019 was a record? The first full year of AMLO’s leadership lead to a Murder record! Now there is a fact AMLO would have loved to made go away. Unless, and this is a real concern, unless he needs that level of crisis to implement the real changes his revolutionary vision calls for. Changes to the Constitution? That one really bothers me. 

2. 61K people missing! Let me say that again. 61K people missing. You keep hearing about these unmarked grave sites the Mexican authorities keep finding. Let’s face it; it’s hard to stick a shovel in the ground and not hit a body in Mexico! 61K missing. Let’s go back to my statement about governments trying to paint pictures that avoid the facts. 61K is 50% higher than what AMLO’s government estimated. 50%. what was their, “estimate” based on, other than political posturing? 

3. The, “blame the other guy”, story is back out in Mexico. Calderon turned the Mexican military lose in 2006 and the poor little cartels became fragmented and that lead to all this violence. Really? I am aware Mexico Cities real desire is to have one cartel rule the roost and then task them with keeping all the others in line, along with filling off shore politicians bank accounts. So when President Calderon sicked the military on the cartel his administration was not aligned with, that’s when all hell broke lose? Once again, Mexico City has to divert the facts. 

4. Mexico Economy. Negative growth again and it’s been that way all the way through the first year of Mr. AMLO. Is that the plan? Social disorder and economic ruin = Revolution? 

Okay, let me Summarize. Murder is up....way up. All the laws and rules are changing. The economy is in the tank. What a fist year for Mr. AMLO. Those daily love in press conferences don’t seem to be doing the job. In the meantime, those members of the military and law enforcement who haven’t taken the peso from the cartels, hang their. Necks out there 24 /7/ 365....for now!   The Mexican people struggle to get to work and get paid all while Mexico City finds new ways to make life worse for the sake of, “the people”. 

Tomorrow I jump on AMLO’s actions with those nations that don’t send holiday greetings to Team Trump.  His desires for the future of Mexico better become the topic of conversation in DC or states like Texas will build their own wall and Nancy, well, she can just go back to her multimillion dollar vineyard in California.  Back on the Mexico issue folks. That’s where I’m heading. That is, unless, someone in the Middle East gets blown up again!