CORONAVIRUS 

A DOWN TO EARTH UPDATE

Two topics today. 1. The down and dirty, pertinent facts, so far, on the Coronavirus. 2. What China is doing, and why? 

Down and Dirty: 

Lethality rate: Currently at 4% ( estimate based on truthfulness of Beijing).

Issue: SARS started with a low lethality rate, but climbed to 15% with a 50% rate for people over 64yrs of age. As a reminder. The more people infected, the more mutations the virus goes through. 

Contagious rate: Bad news here. People infected seem to be contagious prior to becoming symptomatic. This makes containment very....very difficult. 

Issue: That makes containment very difficult. 

What China is doing and why:

These two statements may offend some, but it needs to said. 

1.  Is Beijing more worried about the economic impact of this outbreak? Yes. What country wouldn't be?  

2.  Is Xi more concerned about the world's perception of how  China's handling of this event? In my opinion, this is "the" issue for Xi. China. The nation that is driving towards being the next world leader. Does this outbreak impact that vision? Yes. Can it get much worse? Yes, way worse. Is China's public opinion a concern to Xi? Not really. Is China's economic power influencing the decisions and public announcement from the World Health Organization, WHO? Yes. The geopolitical impact on the WHO is always a factor, and thus, this is not a unique event with China. Does the influence on the WHO impact the future of this outbreak? Yes, but when events like these get to a critical stage, much like the Bird Flu scare, many nations take actions regardless of the WHO's input. In the US, the Center for Dease Control works closely with the WHO, but in the end, if decisions are to be made, they will come from  DC and the State's capitals. This reality holds true for other nations as well. Is that good news? Not always. 

Beijing is worried about the image, and that image will be based upon how they attempt to respond to the viral outbreak. Shutting off large parts of China is a dramatic move that generates a great deal of attention and with that attention come fear and worse, rumors. " People are dying and just falling in the streets." That's just one, "rumor" Rumors. The can quickly become more dangerous than the actual virus. 

What to watch for: 

Focus on one issue. Do some reputable organizations make the statement the lethality rate is increasing?  We know people with preexisting health issues are at a higher risk, but that is true with any virus. We know the elderly and the very young are typically more at risk. What we need to pay attention to is an increase in the lethality rate of middle-aged, healthy people. As I said in my last post. Know your local, state, and federal plans. Once you know those, you can build your own plan. Let's pray we don't need one, but it's never a bad idea to plan, at least to the level of thinking things through. 

PS. If you see me come on here and start talking about the concept of "Immortals" and "Social distancing," it's time to have that plan.