MEXICO’S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR DISBANDING THE MILITARY

                On July 1^st, I read a statement by Mr. AMLO that took me by surprise and that says a great deal, given I truly understood him to be a full-fledged Revolutionary. AMLO would like to disband the Mexican military and simply rely on the people to defend the nation. “What”? That was my first reaction. After I pondered this bazar statement for a few minutes, I had two choices, one, do a quick podcast on what was going on and why, or, I could post a blog entry. I have to tell you; the podcast route is faster and easier. No wonder people have gravitated to that form of communications. Yet, I had a problem, I had jumped on this topic so quickly, I hadn’t given myself time to fully analyze the issue. Truth be known, it took me a few days to finally come to some of the conclusions I will address in this post. So, podcast, are a great way to get the word out quickly, but in-depth analysis just comes easier for me on a keyboard.

Why?

Why would AMLO calls for such a drastic measure? That was the first real issue I found myself stuck on. Is he worried about the military? As a true passivist, does the concept of a military simply seem unnecessary? As one of the people who has warned he is taking Mexico down the road of Venezuela, how could I compare him to Hugo Chavez given Hugo was a military man all the way? As a Mexican version of a Teletubby, perhaps the idea of disbanding the military just made sense to him? But wait a minute. The initial reports of the actions being taken by his new “ National Guard” were anything but Teletubby like. Rumors of the NG going door to door is hardly the actions of a Passivist led government. As you can probably tell by now, I was having trouble with what AMLO seemed to be working towards, then another thought came into my head. Perhaps he was worried about the loyalty? It was an issue that haunted Hugo Chavez for years. Was that it? Was that his issue? Was he or should I say, is he worried about the loyalty of the military, mainly SEDENA? The formation of his new National Guard was based upon most of the force and funding coming out of SEDENA’s hide? Perhaps he and or his staff anticipated “trouble” with the military? Maybe he believes the best way to head off future tension is to do away with the organization that might oppose him? In the end, my opinion became, he was either a true Teletubby or he was a man who was planning a drastic change in Mexico’s future. A change so drastic, the military may not go along with it.

 The Speech and Perceptions:

Once I found myself a little more comfortable on the question of “ Why”, I began to rethink what I had stated in my podcast. The issue remained the same. How would the members of the Mexican Military react to such a statement from their leader? Even if he openly stated he didn’t believe he could make the disbandment event take place, what was the attitude towards someone who would even contemplate such a thing? I kicked this question around for a day or so and then, I began to hear reports of the Mexican Federal Police demonstrating against the actions of AMLO. As a reminder, the other agency that would be drawn from in order to form the new Mexican National Guard was the Federal Police. Twitter post gave me my first clue and most of them were coming from Mexican journalist covering the police protesting at their headquarters. Members were resisting the call to join the NG. Issues such as seniority and benefits seemed to be the sticking point, but in the end, the story was one that had many in Mexico talking. The federal police were upset with their President and the dissatisfaction was growing. Again, as I had stated in the podcast, if the federal police were resisting, then what was the climate inside the military? More importantly, what did the people of Mexico think? Did they support such a radical idea as the disbanding of their military, a military they had placed so much pride in for decades? Had opinions of the military suffered over the past decade as day to day law enforcement had been replaced by the military? Stories of military misconduct had been around for the past ten years and those stories had a great deal of validity. Would the people of Mexico actually support their President’s vision? Had AMLO tested the waters of public opinion before he made his statement? This issue was much harder for me to contemplate and it was a topic I had not covered in the podcast. Clearly, the federal police were not happy with the changes taking place, but adding something as radical as disbanding the military, what impact was that going to have on the public?

 What to look for:

I ended my podcast the other day with the comment I would be watching the developments in Mexico and how this statement about the military might impact perceptions and that is exactly what I’ve been doing. More importantly, I will continue to go back to a point I made in the podcast. What does this all mean to the US? How does this potentially impact the issue of mass illegal migration to the US border?

Can we expect to see members of the military protesting their reassignment into the National Guard? Well, it’s a valid topic to look for.  Post on social media platforms such as Twitter are a true indicator and that is where some of us will be paying close attention. Resistance to AMLO’s visions will dictate the overall health of the nation, that and the quarterly numbers for PEMEX. By the way, those numbers don’t look good and the ability to pay for all of AMLO’s visionary ideas is going to become a real issue soon. He can only attack the integrity of old federal agencies for so long before the people grow tired of him riding around on his White Horse proclaiming to be the people’s champion. Fact. The media is already after him at his daily……yes….daily press conferences.

One final key indicator to really pay attention to. The Budget! If AMLO truly wishes to limit his militaries ability to challenge him, he will go after the budget. Reallocating funds for better utilization under the National Guard will most likely be the way the plan is placed in front of the public. Let the leadership of the military see this concept come to reality and then we may witness even greater troubles inside Mexico. Yep folks, the old adage holds true. “ Follow the money”.