NORTH KOREA AND A POTENTIAL OPERA SINGER  

Going to take a quick break from talking about the US and Russian Chess game to cover the crazy cousin of the Dragon…..North Korea!

DIPLOMACY:

The word that just about everyone in the world truly believes is the key to solving any and all international issues! Diplomacy! So, those of you that believe in this word and it’s magical powers, explain something to me. How do you conduct “Diplomacy” with a man who shoots his own employees with anti-aircraft guns? Yes, I understand he has nuclear weapons and so “Diplomacy” is a requirement and we have good old Bill Clinton to thank for getting the world into that hole! Oh ya….he used “Diplomacy” to work the North Korean Nuclear Weapon’s issue!

THUMBING YOUR NOSE AT THE DRAGON:

Did the crazy Cousin of the Dragon really thumb his nose at them last week? Is this the first time he has done so? Well, maybe so publicly and that is just yet another level of scary. If, and I stress if, the coal issue between them is real, then the message being sent is far more important than strapping five government employees to a post and firing anti-aircraft guns at them. By the way, that was not the first time that has happened. Some have been strapped to rockets and some have had their own troops shell them with mortars. Look it up!

Could the Chinese, finally……………finally……….be growing tired of their crazy Cousins or should we say those allowed to rule over their cousins and that is a hint!

RESPONSE:

How does the rest of the world respond to a story such as this? I was amazed to see CNN actually place the story on the front page of their website. It must have killed them to give up room typically reserved for trashing The Donald. As I stated before, this type of action is not new for the North Koreans and you might even say the young crazy leader is just carrying on a family tradition. He probably attended events much like this when he was a child. Why be different? By the way, I’ve said this for years. Have you ever noticed the complete look of terror on the faces of the military Generals standing around the crazy little guy or even back when his Dad was in power? Who walks into the room and gives a briefing that is anything but glowing? Bad information? The crazy kid was mad about bad information? Tell the truth, get a rocket in the head. Give a fabricated story and get Rocket to the head! I bet getting promoted in the North Korean military is like being given a Command on the Western Front for the Russian in WWII.

Back to my point. What should the civilized world do? Ignore the little crazy guy with nukes? Wait for the Dragon to solve the problem? That falls into the category of “hope” and “hope” is not a plan! A few years ago, I wrote about this very issue and honestly, I’ve written about this topic more times than I can remember. I’ve never come off of my baseline theory on North Korea. If the Dragon wants the issue “solved”, then the issue will be solved.  Look at 1979 and a place called Vietnam. Is that it then? Is it up to the Dragon to put sanity back into North Korea? How much longer can the Chinese tolerate the crazy cousin to the South?

THE AGE OF BARTERING: 

For the past two months now, I’ve looked at the issue of how the Tsar and The Donald might be in a position to barter large moving pieces on the international Chess Table. NATO, Eastern Europe, The Middle East. Most of the players on these three topics have a feeling that bartering is underway. It usually is when new shifts in Super Power alignments are taking place. The same holds true for the Dragon and The Donald.  The actions of North Korea have had their value to the Chinese for decades. When the Chinese military was unable to stand and fight the West, the option of unleashing the crazy Cousin was always front and center on the table. Times have changed and they continue to change. The day is here or will soon be here when the Dragon no longer needs a crazy Cousin on the border of South Korea. Is there love between these two Cousins? Nope! Inferior, embarrassing, that is how China sees North Korea and don’t you know that goes over well with the little crazy guy! 

China knows what it wants in the region. The Donald is a businessman. As I said when I looked at the first priority task for then the new President of the US, what “deals” can The Donald make? What does the US want? Does the idea of a North Korea run by a logical, mentally stable person appeal to the West? Does the concept of a unified Korea sound appealing to the Dragon? Remember what I said a few years ago, a unified Korea means the US has no reason for forces on the Dragon’s backdoor called the Korean Peninsula. The question would then become, “why are you still here”?

TIME FOR THE FAT MAN TO SING:

The old saying goes, “It’s not over until the Fat Lady sings”! Well, The Dragon may be getting ready to turn the crazy little fat boy into an Opera Star. What level of bartering is The Donald ready to step to the table with? Remember those frighten Generals I was asking you about? How easy do you think it would be for the Dragon to persuade one of them, if not most of them, to turn on the man who shoots people with rockets? If The Donald brings the right level of material to the table, then we may be ready to hear a North Korean version of “ Carmen”. 

IRAN AND THEIR DIMINISHING LIST OF “FRIENDS”

Okay, right out of the gate, I admit the concept of “Friends” in today’s world of international affairs is about as lose of a concept as a Hooker telling you, “ You number one Joe”! Hookers and International Affairs? Hmm…… there is a coalition there! Seriously, today I’m going to take a shot at what appears to be the latest flair up between the Persians and the Ottomans.

If you go back and read my post from 2011/12/ you will find multiple discussions on the three way conflict in the Middle Eastern Region of the world. All three factions pushing for the same goal, the goal many other nations often pursue! Dominance! The Ottomans, The Persians and to some extent the Arabs all believe they should be the dominant force in the region. They all believe their history supports this drive. Not a story that is unique to that part of the world, but the ramifications of these desires, stacked on top of the social climate of the 21^st Century makes this ongoing story a very dangerous one.

OTHERS:

So, the concept the Persians, Ottomans and the Arabs are all jockeying for the same seat is a serious one, but then you have to add the fact that “others” have desires for the region as well.  To the Tsar, the Middle East is tool to set the course he desires in Europe. It’s a region that impacts his primary, at least for now, way of making money…………fuel! What dreams or ambitions the Ottomans or the Persians or the Arabs have is little more than noise to the Tsar. To the Europeans the region is what it has always been to them, the place where people come from that can overrun Europe. Today’s so called Mass Migration event is just the 21^st Century versions of a reoccurring nightmare. The “Unwanted” showing up in Europe! As for the Dragon, the region is nothing more than an opportunity, but an opportunity that must carefully be weighed with patients the Dragon is very….very… patient. To the US, the region is an emotional roller-coaster.  In the 30 years, the US has fought countless battles in the region with the loss of lives and treasure still looked upon by many as an unjust and unnecessary cost. Walking away, is not an option and doing more is very….very…unpopular at home.

SIDES:

Time and time again, I’ve addressed the issue of, “who is on whose side and are they really”? The Turks are fighting in Syria. The Iranians are fighting in Syria. The Russians are fighting in Syria. The Kurds are fighting in Syria. Numerous “others” are supporting all sides of the fighting in Syria! Is there any real concept of who is working together? I will tell you this, Syria is going to go down in the history books as one of the most confusing, illogical conflicts in human history. Yes, the world has seen other conflicts where the players and scorecards don’t make sense, but again, you have to factor in the coverage of the Syrian event. The world never had social media before. The awareness of the insanity of “sides” has never been so exposed almost on an hourly basses.

The Turks are fighting in one area against a group the Russians oppose. The Turks are fighting to take land from a government the Russians support. The Turks are fighting in one area against groups the West supports. The Turks are fighting in other areas against groups the West doesn’t not support. The Iranians are fighting groups the Turks support. The GCC supports groups that oppose the government of Syria. The Turks are fighting the groups the GCC supports? I could go on and on, but the message is clear. Syria is far more than a nation that has slipped into Civil War. Syria, as I have said before, is now part of a much larger struggle and for that reason, finding a way out of the conflict is nearly impossible.

IRAN AND TURKEY:

So what is this latest war of words between the Persians and the Ottomans about this time? Did something change? This is not the first time they have tossed insults at each other. Well, something has changed. The Iranians have changed and are changing! A few weeks back, I spent a few days talking about the added pressures being placed on Iran. Times have changed. The US Presidency changed and the course of the Persian vison has been impacted. The Tsar and The Donald are resetting, at least many think they are, the regional map. The Iranians are what they always feared they were; pawns! Things are simply not getting any better for the Persians and even internally, the rumors of the next election cycle are beginning to cause additional pressure. Lashing out at someone, someone other than the typical US / Israeli punching bags, seems to be the latest attempt by Tehran to show the world they are relevant.  Like The Donald, Egodan is not one to take insults quietly. Slapping back is a trait of his and this time around was no exception.

Frustration. That could be the key to what is taking place this time around. The Persians are simply growing more and more frustrated with how their vision is falling apart. Tehran doesn’t dare speak poorly of the Tsar and lashing out at the US or Israel is simply old news that scores very few points at home. The Persian vision of being the predominant nation serving under the Islamic flag is faltering. Tehran’s belief that all things Islamic will be based out of Tehran is never going to come true. Old men’s dreams are going to die with them and they are beginning to understand that. The problem is, that doesn’t mean they are not angry and even worse, desperate!

MATH:

Here is the number one problem for the Persians and it’s been the number one problem from day one of their old men’s dreams. Math. Do the math! The overwhelming majority of the Islamic faith is Sunni! The Persians represent the minority and the majority is not sympathetic to the minority dream.

From day one, the plan was to overcome this math with superior capabilities. If you can kill your advisory in vastly superior numbers, you can win the day! Okay, someone once again tell me why they believe the Iranian old men don’t want nuclear weapons? If you can be the hero of your religion by taking back your religions holy sites, then why would the rest of your religion not follow you, even when you are the minority? Do superior weapons make the minority, the majority? Oh, by the way, in case you forgot; the Ottomans are predominately Sunni!

DESPERATE:

 The Persians are growing more and more desperate. The list of friends is shrinking as the boldness of its enemies is growing. Internally, the natives are close to being restless again and 2009 is still in the minds of the old men in Tehran. The Ottomans and the Tsar and now it appears The Donald are making plans to push Iran out of Syria. That is a disaster for the Persians! If that was not enough, the real danger, the Sunni / Shia conflict shows signs of even getting worse.  An Arab NATO? Yep, I’ve talked about this one before to, but that can only send one message to Iran. Who will make up the Shia NATO? The Pakistanis? Nope! The Iraqis? Please! Where do the Persians turn? How long do they wait? How much worse can it get?

There is an old saying in the art of warfare. “It’s now or never”! Let’s pray the old men in Tehran don’t see it this way.

Side Note:

 I just finished  reading a RAND Corporation study on the impact of a US / China / conflict. Can’t site the document because RAND doesn’t like that, but it’s on the web…… like everything else in the world.  I’m not sold they hit the true “Human” factors in that report, but I may take a shot of doing something along the same lines on the topic of Iran. We shall see.

A few really good articles related to this post:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/02/20/Iran-warns-Turkey-to-avoid-pushing-Tehran-s-patience-to-limits-.html

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201702221050958468-iran-conclude-war-drill-slap/

http://www.debka.com/article/25936/Saudi-spy-chief-visits-Israel-Ramallah

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/02/turkey-iran-rivalry-spills-over-with-angry-exchanges.html

MOLDOVA. IS THIS THE TSAR’S NEXT CARD TO BE PLAYED?

Where is Moldova? If that question has you stumped, let me give you a hint why it’s an important place, one of several reasons. It’s on the Southwestern border of Ukraine. Second hint, it wants become a member of the EU. Third hint, it’s been holding exercises with NATO forces! Need I go on?

RUMORS:

In a world that is virtually addicted to “rumors” and Social Media based “news”, the events surrounding Moldova in the past few weeks are starting to get Europe’s attention along with some in the Western Intelligence community. Is it a new rumor the Tsar may be contemplating options in Moldova? No. Does it seem the issue has more traction now than in the past year or so? Yes. As I stated earlier this week, the idea that several European nations are worried about the US’s new leadership and The Donald’s commitment to them, is most likely what is taking place here. Again, the theory being those worried nation’s governments are “pushing” their fears to the forefront. Now is the time to let the US know just how much danger they may be in. It makes sense, but will it have an impact?

THE TSAR’S PLAY:

 The Russians have no intention of seeing NATO operations held or worse, stationed in Moldova, but the government of Moldova would love it. The seeds of disruption have been planted in Moldova long before The Donald won the election. Yet, the Tsar has to give this potential relationship with the new US President time. He has to find out if The Donald’s words on the campaign trail really amount to actions in Europe.  This week gives the Tsar a good indication of what to expect. With his vast intelligence network analyzing the results of the US’s Vice President words on the cost of NATO, the Tsar will get a preliminary snapshot of what the EU is thinking. Are the words just words for the news media to cover? What were the closed door conversations? Can the Russians get a hint of what really went on?

Moldova options are ready, but the timing is not right. What is the prudent thing for the Tsar to do? Yep. Let a few stories get out that a coup may be in the works. Let Europe and the US believe another round of “Little Green Men” is about to take place.  By the way. I have to say, when Russian Regulars showed up in Eastern Ukraine with their equipment and the Russian response was, “They are on leave and if they decided to go there and fight while they are on leave, that is their business”…..well…..that was just amazing!!! In my book that was the most powerful slap to the face of President Obama he endured in his  entire eight years in office and he a few of them! Let the government of Moldova see the thugs lurking in the shadows. Let them make a few arrest and state they are members of groups plotting trouble in the capital. Will that work? Will that change the mindset of The Donald? I’m not sure the Tsar’s intelligence Team has a profile snapshot of the new US President that the Tsar is so confident of that he would risk altering his long thought out plan for Europe. But, the Tsar is a passive pressure kind of guy! Let the US and Europe know what might just be over the horizon and see how they react!

If you are sitting in Russia and you read this, take note. That concept is a terrible idea! It’s an idea that could lead to dangerous events!  Play the game with The Donald behind the scenes, but don’t try the tactic used on Obama. If you slap The Donald’s face, he is going to slap back and it will most likely be quick and without a great deal of forethought. Play the quiet game, but if you push to embarrass him, be prepared for unpredictable responses. Europe is watching. Eastern European nations are more than watching, they are praying and even placing side bets on this poker game. If you don’t know where Moldova is, I would bet you will hear of it in the next few months.

https://www.unian.info/world/1235392-analysts-report-high-probability-of-coup-in-moldova.html

DUNBASS….. THE TSAR’S NEXT MOVE WAS PREDICTABLE.

So the Tsar institutes a decree? The people of the Dunbass region of the Ukraine now have “recognized” Identifications to include Birth Certificates! Now, I am sure that over the weekend the academic wine drinkers had very enlightening conversations on the Tsar’s latest move. “Soft Power”!  They love to talk about “Soft Power”! Not the buzz topic it was just a few years ago, but when I read the DC “Academics”, that term still pops up, especially when the conversation revolves around Russia and the Ukraine issue.

THE DANCE:

With the US Vice President in Europe, trying to calm the fears on the NATO issue along with the US Secretary of Defense, the timing of the Tsar’s “Decree” was not unpredictable.

Two things are going on here.

1.      The Tsar is letting the US and Europe know the issue of the Ukraine is still one of his top two.

2.      The Tsar is past the stage of anticipating The Donald’s impact on Europe and he has moved into the phase of, “let me push a few buttons and see what reaction I get”. It’s a game where the Tsar is undoubtedly the undisrupted Word Campion!  

Yes, what is taking place in Europe in the past few days is far more complicated than that and if you love to read complicated, redundant babble, then you just need to pull up the DC blogs and editorial sites!

So, is it really news that Russia recognizes some level of independent identification from the Donbass region? Yes…….yes it is and the fact the Western Media was clueless to this topic speaks volumes as to their understanding of the severity of the topic. If you are worried about the plight of Refugees from Syria for something as simplistic of the Syrian Civil War, then you would simply not comprehend what a Europe at war would lead to.

A REOCCURRING STORY:  

Once again, the totality of the issue has to be weighed if you want to understand why the Tsar would recognize Donbass documents. The Ukraine was sliced away from the Russian sphere of influence by the West. That’s the way the Tsar sees it and by the way, that is almost the way I see it. Why, “almost”, on my part? As I’ve said time and time again, the Western stance on the issue of the Ukraine is based on, “We didn’t pull them away, but we did accept them when they made their push to the West”! That “push” is the contentious issue between the Russians and the West. What percentage of the population drove the revolt in Ukraine? Does anyone really know? The West will tell you the majority and the Russians will say a small minority. At the time, the Progressive, Liberal administration of the US was more than happy to see yet another socially driven uprising. The Obama team was in love with the concept of the Arab Spring as they saw it as nothing more than the youthful resistance to corrupt government. How the Tsar saw the event was ether not taken seriously enough or some group of “experts” on the Obama Team didn’t understand the value of the Ukrainian region to the Russians! Either way, it was a stupid….stupid mistake.  Honestly, it was a mistake that has destabilized all of Europe and set in motion the collapse of the European Union.

NEXT STEP:

What is the next step? The Trump Team is in Europe trying to mend fences. The Tsar has the Ukrainian issue smack dab in the middle of his desk. The two world leaders are early in the game of learning what the other truly wants. Europe is hearing, “we are with you” from the US, but what is the level of confidence? If there is one thing a politician knows, it’s not to trust the word of another Politician and that goes double for issues on the international relations level.

Can the US convince its European partners they are committed to Europe? Back to one of my favorite quotes, “Deeds before words”! That is what Europe will be looking for. You can bet that is what Putin is watching for.

The Tsar played his next card with the identification issue and he did so at just the right moment in time. Europe is on edge and that edge is getting smaller and smaller to stand on. La Pen is an event that has them holding their breath. With la Pen, Europe gets the end of the EU. Yes, the card game is getting far more serious than most in the West know. The dealer is winning and some at the table are close to folding and walking away. Remember this. The Tsar has been in the Casino business for a long time and his next bet may be the one that makes some fold. Can the US “call” his hand?

Side Note:  The story attached is from sputniknews. Notice the photograph? Passports? Is the Tsar’s News Team sending a message about Donbass?

https://sputniknews.com/world/201702201050861017-russia-putin-ukraine-donbass-passports/

SOLEIMANI TRAVELS BACK TO MOSCOW? HOW WORRIED IS IRAN?

As I’ve said on several occasions, from the day the Tsar placed troops in Syria, the Iranians have feared the repercussions for their own plans in the region. If you have read my post for the past several years, you know Soleimani is a key figure I like to keep an eye on. So how are the two issues related? Why would Soleimani be the mouthpiece for the Persians in Moscow? This is his fourth trip that we are told of, since the Russians began to fight in Syria. Was it his Bosses idea to send him? Did he go on his own? Did the Tsar’s Team summon him? Just how nervous is Iran becoming?

BROMANCE:

If it’s true or not doesn’t matter. As I have said before, the idea of the Russians and the US making “deals” on issues for the Middle East without having the Iranians at the table, well, that is all that is needed to set the paranoid leadership of Iran into motion. The Tsar and The Donald are cutting deals, negotiating, bartering or call it what you may and the Iranians are not at the table. Just think of it, they know the Tsar and The Donald are talking, but they don’t know the details and then the new US President makes openly threatening statements to Iran with little or no response from the Tsar!  Where would your confidence be? Enter Soleimani.

Soleimani, a man that has the attitude Moscow loves. When it comes to killing and it needs to happen, he is Iran’s man! He’s not flashy. He’s not a media hound. He shows up, gets the job done and quietly moves out. Yes. He had a few photo ops awhile back and even I thought that was unusual. But, the fight was going badly in Syria and the image of him rallying the troops was exactly what the Shia Mulitas and Hezbollah needed, well, that and a few thousand bombing runs by the Russian Airforce.  The bottom line is, Soleimani is the right “fit” for a messaging mission with the Tsar. They are a lot alike and that always helps when you are trying to mend fences or worse, trying to figure out what your so called Ally is up to.

RUMOR MILL:

Safe Zones in Syria and now more talk of possible “joint” cooperation between the Russians and the US on the ground in Syria? What does this mean to Iran? What level of it is true? Is Moscow really attempting to conduct combined operations in Syria? What about the Militias and Hezbollah? Two weeks ago, I talked about the perception that a plan was underway to push the Iranians out of Syria. Assad could stay for now, but the Iranians won’t own him! The land bridge to Lebanon will be broken. None of this is acceptable to Iran, but before they can decide what to do next, they need to confirm what part of the “rumors” are real! So, off to Moscow once again goes Soleimani. Here is the problem and it’s a real problem. What level of trust does Iran put in what Soleimani is told? Are the Iranians past the point of believing what Moscow tells them?

All of this is pressure. Pressure on a tyrannical government seated in Tehran. The Tsar is dealing with Saudi, Turkey and now the US. None of that paints a bright future for Iran.

Soleimani is back in Tehran and whatever message he was given is now known. His opinion of the message is just as important as the message itself!

Let’s see what the next move is from Tehran!

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/02/16/Senior-Iranian-military-commander-visits-Moscow-in-violation-of-UN-resolution-.html

FLYNN AND THE REPERCUSSIONS.

I sit here in amazement this morning. How is it  the US has become so polarized? How did the US  get to the point that some of the powerful in both politics and the media have decided to risk everything for the sake of political power? If I have confused you with this statement, let me play out one of my favorite games. Yep! The “What If” game! When I’m finished playing this scenario, let’s go back and see if one of my other favorite games comes into play; The Law of Unintended Consequences, followed by the Law of Second and Third Order Effects.

What if:

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was sanctioned by his Boss?

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to bring options to the table for peace in the Middle East?

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to bring resolution to the issue of Eastern Europe and NATO.

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to address the issue of China and the South China Seas?

Is all of this impossible? Is it a stretch to think that someone who may have very good connections a key  component of all these issues, Russia, might be tasked to covertly, quietly, begin to talk to his contacts about these issues? Is it against the “law”? It appears so. Does the US government always follow the “law” ? Please! Does the art of State Craft and international Affairs only follow the “law”? Do not all US politicians not understand the long tradition of “behind the scene” communications? Is this the first time someone from an inbound Administration of a Super Power or any nation for that matter, made “outside the channels” contact? So what is really going on here? What really took place? Is it better to approach the Russians on the Intelligence side of issues rather than the DoS side? Who is the Russian leader and what is his background?

I told someone this morning the whole adventure with Donald Trump seems like a scene right out of the original Frankenstein movie. Trump is being chased through the streets not because he is evil, but because he scares the other side of the political scene in the US. The Progressives lost and an out of the box, Billionaire is now President!

Trump spent a great deal of his energy on the campaign trail convincing everyone  he talked to that he was not like the “rest” in DC. He was different and he was going to do things differently. So now what? If he campaigned on being different, does that mean he can’t take actions like the rest of the old club members did? What’s the message here? “You said you were different, so now we are not going to let you do what we have all done for decades”! Is this an “ We gotya moment”? if so, here is my next question. At what price?

Law of Unintended Consequences:

If the Russians thought they had someone who was channeling “options” to them. If they thought this was taking place prior to the new President taking power, did they believe there was a better chance to work on a few key issues, issues the Obama team refused to work with the Russians on?

The Russians are like any other nation in the world. They knew unofficial communications is a cornerstone of international diplomacy. Everyone has been doing it for centuries! But now, now when the new US President starts that same time tested process with the Russians, suddenly, alarm bells go off! A great injustice has been committed! From the Russian perspective, ask yourself this. Why now? Why with us? Is the answer, some of those in power in the US don’t want a better relationship between the US and Russia? Why does George Soros’ name come to mind? Who is the money behind those who think Trump is the Frankenstein Monster. George, the man who did more to destroy the Russian economy in the 90s than anyone else and by the way, he did not do it for God and County.

In Moscow this morning, it is very possible the Tsar and his team are sitting there contemplating why this event with Flynn took place? Even worse, they are convincing themselves it was all about stopping the Trump Team from mending the relationship with Russia. Remember this. Perceptions are everything in the 21^st Century. If the Tsar thinks  this was an act to stop the repairing of relations, then what action does he have to consider next?

Is that it? Is that what just took place in the US? Did some group decide to prevent the Russians and the Trump Team from mending the fence? Unfortunately, I think the answer is much worse than that. I believe the issue is much more close to home for those in the US.

Burn the House Down…even when you live in it :

This fear in the US of Trump is visceral!  It’s getting close to someone declaring a book burning of all things about Trump! Two political parties in the US hate each other so much, that they are willing to burn down the house they both live in. Both sides have their supporters and both sides demand the other come to the table of common good.

Did the anti Trump Team just destroy a process that has taken place inside of US foreign policy for years? Are the anti Trump folks willing to destroy backchannel concepts for the sake of knocking Trump down a notch or two? Or, is it worse than that? Are they now going to start a real Witch hunt? Does CNN see their version of the Water Gate Team? “Did Trump know”? Is that the lead story now? And if he did, and he most likely did, then what? BURN THE MONSTER!

I’m not sure where the US is heading? The world is not sure where the US is heading! But. I do know this. If the US is so consumed with divisional lust for political power, then her enemies will leverage the event.

Wounded Animals are the most dangerous! If the US is hell bent on becoming a wounded animal, then her enemies will know it. You can ether kill a wounded animal or you leave it alone!

I am amazed what happened with Flynn. Yes, I know of his personal nature and his leadership style and that may have been his downfall. Senior Generals have a tendency to go off the reservation. Just ask any Ambassador.   I hope that is the real story. But, ripping at the seated President over the issue, well, where is the US going? 

EGYPT’S MEDIA. JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE.

When I read this article, it was clear to me I was looking at a story within a story. Upfront, the theme was simple, was Egypt attempting to control the media information process in Egypt? If that was all this story was truly about, the opening paragraph would have been enough and you could have printed this story and a 3 by 5 card! Yes. Egypt is always looking to control the press and Egypt is not alone in the region or the world in trying to do so. Controlling information is a timeless tool of governance. The idea of Sisi using a military man, a General, to attempt further control, for that is what we are truly talking about here, of the Egyptian news media, well, does that surprise anyone?

Story in the story:

What did the Author of this article miss? What was the real issue overlooked?  Egypt already controls a large segment of the media and as the Author stated, the state owns numerous media outlets in Egypt. The problem is, the ownership is not working! It’s not working in Egypt and it’s not working in just about every corner of the world where government is trying to own, shape the message heard, seen by the rest of the world. Oh, by the way, that same attempt is being made by the “West” as well, it’s just a much more professional process. Just asked George Soros about this plan to put Hillary in the White House. Governance has seen the ability to control information as the key to staying in power for thousands of years. The problem is, technology has made that virtually impossible.

What Sisi has missed, and it could be he and his team know they have missed it, is the fact that no government can completely control social media. Yes, nations like China are taking huge steps to try to do so, but even the Dragon cannot keep the lid on 1.4 BILLION people trying to communicate. Even when the approach is based on punishing those who do try to communicate, such as the Iranian crackdown on satellite dishes, it simply doesn’t work. From the standpoint of governance, social media is the pores object known to the Human Race. Redundant, and globally diversified, social media, in the eyes of governance, is the gift that keeps on giving!

Control:

Is it actually possible to control information in the 21^st century? Here is the most frightening answer you can imagine. Yes!  Single point of failure! Think of this from a targeting issue. If you had to stop the ability to communicate, not just of your enemy’s military or government, but of the people who support them or yes, even your own people, how would you do it? Yes, I’ve heard the argument time and time again about the redundancy of the global satellite network and I’m here to tell you, the trust is such a redundant concept is based on hope and “hope” is not a plan!

Satellites are they key to the human races ability to communicate at the rate nearly everyone has come to expect. Gone are the days of sending a letter and waiting two weeks, if you were lucky, to hear back from someone or some group.  In today’s world, the second someone hits, “send” they are sitting there waiting on a reply. Sad, but true! So, if a government wants to disrupt, a form of control, communications, then where do you think they may head? The good news is, only a very few nations have the ability to do such damage, at least for now. The real bad news is, a few of those nations are run but madmen!

Look, it’s not new news that oppressive governments are in a state of panic over the impact of Social Media. To be honest, even stable governments and political parties are constantly trying to figure out how to control what takes place on Social Media. The fact of the matter is this. The panic button for stopping communications is not controlling a TV station or a website. The weapon of choice will be the attack on the single point of failure.

Egypt struggles with what its people hear and who tells it to them. Every government in the world that seeks control of what their people hear suffers from the same event. Every government fears the same repercussions.  In a crisis, what is a desperate government willing to do?

As a great author once wrote, it’s a “Brave New World”.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/02/egypt-army-state-control-media.html

“FRENEMIES”

“Frenemies”! Sometimes a single word can do more to frame an issue that 10,000 words written by someone swimming in the pool of Academia. Mr. Gurcan’s attempt to explain the predicament Turkey is in is a prime example of my comment. “Frenemies”! I love the concept and the simplicity behind that word. Frenemies are not new to the region and the concept has been around as long as there has been organized conflict. Today, the situation Mr. Gurcan addressed in this article is replicated in every square inch of the Middle East. How do you live with a group or movement that appeals just enough to a percentage of your population that you can’t afford to crush it or worse, ignore it? From a perception and control viewpoint, Gurcan’s first group are much easier to not only deal with, but to explain to the Turkish public. Then, Gurcan hits the nail on the head! Switching sides! How many times in the past six years have I addressed the issue of “switching sides”? Hired guns! Young Men looking for adventure when that adventure is the only game in town. That’s been the truth behind the core strength of the Radical Islamic Groups. It’s been the core value behind the Drug Gangs in Mexico and Central America. It’s been the core value of the Street Gangs of the United States. If Tukey and or Mr. Gurcan understands that, then they may just understand the genetic weakness of these organizations.

What makes an uncommitted individual leave? What has taken place when a on again, off again supporter decides to jump ship? Is there a bright and shiny object effect? Does something else look more appealing over time? Do these members, who have commitment and loyalty issues to begin with, simply grow tired of taking orders from leaders they don’t respect? What is the “Life Cycle” of any organizations base? If the “Grunt” is the backbone of the movement, what makes the “Grunt” walk away? Now, some very smart people have been paid a great deal of money to look at this concept and they have been doing so in areas like the Middle East for over fifteen years. The US military’s attempt, along with several other “Agencies”, to break into this mental loop has produced books, lectures and made some people, organizations, very rich. The level of success is measured by the fact that these groups are still being dealt with today. It seems we can see the problem. We can give lectures on how to defeat the backbone of these organizations, but in the end, they are still hear. They are still supported by their core members who have the ability to slide from one group to the next and then back again.

The US, for all of its “experts” and all the tax payers dollars spent, is no better at dealing with what Mr. Gurcan states than most of its Allies. Oh ya…….some of those “Allies” are also….. “Frenemies”! Imagine that!

So, if you have ever wondered why it’s so hard to arm one group and fight the other, then think about the whole concept of the “Frenemies”. 

I wonder if Mr. Gurcan realizes the concept of “Frenemies” is much more applicable to nations than it is to movements or gangs.

Drug Gangs and Terrorist Groups? What are all the similarities? Something fun to think about, but then again, I am sure the books are out there. Boat payments needed to be made or someone needed to get on FOX or CNN news. Oh well. I may take a shot at it anyway.  

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/authors/metin-gurcan.html

LE PEN’S PENDING VICTORY IN FRANCE? IF SHE WINS, WHY?

Started to write this yesterday, but wanted to go read a few more opinions on the issue, especially from the Russian side of the fence.  Before I get started, let me recap the “Big Picture”.

Soviet Union collapses.

West “Assures” The Russians they will not expand into Eastern Europe, specifically NATO.

Putin’s rise to power, a man who was emotionally scarred by the speed of the Soviet collapse.

Eastern European nations work to become members of Western Europe, to include military alliances.

Western Europe and the US accept this desire. “We didn’t move into Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe moved to us”!

Russia sees its historic “Buffer Zone” being assimilated into the West.

Putin’s power grows and his vision of a new Russian Empire hardens.

The events in Georgia take place. The rest of Eastern Europe watches!

The events in the Ukraine take place. The rest of Eastern Europe worries!

Putin begins a plan to destabilize Europe / EU nations. 

Conflict in the Middle East is leveraged to further destabilize Europe / Mass Refugee event.

A growing percentage of Europe’s population begins to question the future of the EU and their loss of individualism / National pride.

Britain votes to leave the EU.

Terror attacks continue to take place throughout Europe and the Liberal Government’s look powerless to prevent them.

Migrants and non-nationals once again begin to take the blame for events in Europe.

Russia plays Turkey into making the migration issue even worse/ flood gates.

A growing part of the population of Europe / Western Europe / fear for the stability of their countries.

Far “Right” parties blame the Liberal Passive leadership of Europe.

Europe continues to slide to the Right.

Trump is elected in the US and the “Model” is set.

Putin shows he can regulated the worries of Europe and the Mass Migration issue by controlling Syria.

Putin’s stock goes up not in Eastern Europe, but in Western Europe!

Okay, for all you scholars out there, this is an over simplification of the issue and I am well aware that if something this complex is made this simplistic, it makes it very difficult for all of you to sell long, boring books that show off your ability to do historical research! Sorry!

Here is the simple truth about people like La Pen. She and the others like her in Europe / West and East / represent the fear that is continuing to grow in each nation’s belly! She and those like her signify the long desire to retain the historic, nationalistic pride deep inside nations like France, England, and Germany! Those who never really believed in some utopic “Europe”…. A Europe that has no borders, one currency and one set of laws, well, their numbers are growing! The desire to return to the pride of individualism is the center of gravity for those who no longer see Europe as one large entity. Those who wish to end the pipe dream called the European Union! And who dreams of this more than anyone about to vote in France? The Tsar!

 As I have mentioned this time and time again, but, a great man once said, “A house divided cannot stand”.

A collapsed house has no room for new Boarders and that is just the message the Tsar is giving to Russia’s old Buffer Zone called Eastern Europe!

The Master Plan of the Tsar continues. 

THE “WALL” AND THE MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS.

If you have followed my postings on Mexico, you know that I’m a fan of borderland beat. Is it perfect journalism? What is? Is the site questioned on its sources of information? Yes, no different than any other investigative operation. So, what sets Borderland Beat apart from the rest? Simple, feedback! Look at “comments” section of just about every article they post and you will find an unusually high volume of opinions. I watched postings, editorials and so called professional news stories as they are posted from all four corners of the globe. Very few of them match the amount of feedback Borderland Beat generates.

Not only does Borderland Beat prosper from the high volume of feedback, the clientele of who responds is even more remarkable. About ten years ago, I was talking to few coworkers about this site and the major topic of our conversation was the realization of just how many Drug Cartel members, supporters, were responding to most of the postings. Borderland Beat had and has a reputation of getting into a story quickly with a flair for raw information. Photos! They understand the power of photos! As we continued to “follow” this site, it became clear just what level of feedback was being provided. Not sure the Drug Cartel leaders ever understood or still understand the importance of hearing from the very people who are creating the violence in Mexico and the US. Yep.  Borderland Beat gives a voice to those who are in the trade and those same members provide great information if nothing less than on the psyche of the “Players”.  This whole issue of “feedback” is important to what my point will be here in just a few minutes.

THE WALL:

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/02/the-border-wall-making-mexican-drug.html

I won’t argue that some of the points brought up in this article are more than a “stretch”, but I also won’t argue a few of the Author’s points are more than possible. The topic of the building the Wall is far more complex than The Donald realized or probably still realizes and I have little confidence in just what level of analysis is taking place in DC. What are the Second and Third Order Effects of this Wall? Who is truly looking into one of my favorite issues; The Law of Unintended Consequences?

As much as I enjoyed reading this posting, let me make an overall comment. The Author has a fundamental flaw in the analysis. The Wall is not about drugs! It’s about people! Now, I realize the Author is looking at the topic of the Wall from the perspective the site is most concerned about, drugs, but stopping the flow of drugs into the US is not the primary intent of the Wall. Just look at the Trump’s Campaign message from day one. The Wall was, is and will be about people! Illegal Emigration. That was the drive behind the concept. The Donald did not campaign on an anti-drug platform. He drove his message to the American Blue Collar Class on Illegal Emigration and jobs!  So, in a sense, the Author has done what I’m afraid DC is not. This story, with a few of its assumptive flaws takes a real shot, no pun intended, at Second Order Effects and The Law of Unintended Consequences. It’s for that reason alone I found this worth talking about.

FEEDBACK:

Okay, back to my point about “feedback”. At the time I read this story, there were over 75 comments made on this one post. As I stated earlier, that is a remarkable response! If you take the time to read through the comments, you should be able to see the wide variety of responses. As is the case with most editorial articles, the level of intelligent thought is ………“wide” to be politically correct! What makes the responses on Borderland Beat valuable is the “who” not the “what”.  I can guarantee you many of the 75 comments were made by individuals who are in the drug business or deal with the drug business!  How does the Drug World see the issue of “The Wall”?  What do they believe the consequences might be of that Wall going up? And most useful of all, do the decisions makers in the US and Mexico understand the options that might be revealed here?

Opportunity lost or gained. What will it be? 

THE DONBASS ISSUE. AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW

Well, as you get older the saying goes, you get wiser! That didn’t hold true for me yesterday. As I was burning a few brain cells on the latest events in Eastern Ukraine, I missed a scenario that I shouldn’t have. It wasn’t until this morning, when I read this attached article, that I realized a very real scenario. What if the Tsar truly is not behind the flare up in Donbass region of the Ukraine? What if the event is the action of the government in Kiev? How did I not think that one through at the level I should have? I have only one answer. I’ve been so fixated on the concept of a Trump / Putin bartering concept, that I let myself overlook the reality the seated government in Kiev is not made up of a bunch of Knights in Shining Armor. Did Poroshenko and his team plan this latest round of unrest? What is Kiev worried about?

WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE GANDER:

What would a new relationship between the Tsar and The Donald mean for Kiev? In the close door discussions on the future of commitments to Europe, where does the Ukraine fit in? Yes, it’s a major part of the Tsar’s disunion with The Donald, but where is the new US President on the topic? Does Kiev really know? Do they trust what they are hearing? True, Western military leaders are in Kiev. True Western Diplomats are talking to Poroshenko’s team, but what is the level of confidence? Words? Like I always say, “Deeds before words”!

Is the Ukraine any different than many of the other countries as they watch this new dance between the US and Russia? Can the Ukraine simply hope their future turns out the way Western political and military leaders are telling them? Would the US or the Russians settle for such words of assurance?

PERCEPTIONS:

Once again, the ageless issue of perception comes into play and this time, it’s not just the perception from Kiev, but the perception from Moscow!

Yesterday I made the comment there was no way the Pro Russian Rebels / Donbass Militias, take your pick, would instigate military conflict in the region without a green light from Moscow. So ask yourself. Could the Tsar possibly believe the pro-Western government of Kiev would do the same without the knowledge of key Western powers? Interestingly enough, the answer may be “yes”! If someone walked into the room and told Putin there was an unforeseen event taking place in the Donbass region he might believe it was a sanction event given the amount of Western / US / military advisers in Kiev. He might think to himself, “Is Donald testing me? Is he showing me he too can press issues to gain leverage in the ongoing bartering game”?   Remember, we are talking about a very methodical, yet, paranoid Tiger Hunter here! He may come to the conclusion, as this article states that Kiev is simply trying to place the Ukraine issue back on the front burner. Does that mean it had Western support? That’s up to the Tsar to decide!

Perception. It’s the force that drives the world. It’s the core value of two very powerful men. Two men who are in the early stages of dancing a very complicated and dangerous tango! What an ugly mental pictureJ

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702041050343247-ukraine-nato-prospects/

A QUICK LOOK AT THE EVENTS IN DONBASS

So, what is taking place in Donbass and more importantly, why now?

Donbass Militias? Does Sputniknews.com mean “Pro Russian Rebels”? Does anyone believe these groups do anything without guidance from Moscow? Are we to believe they are just Free Radicals, bouncing around in the Tsar’s backyard? Not hardly! So, why is this “flare-up” taking place now? It’s typically not the right time of year for such a thing, winter, but they have had snowy events in the past. Still, something is up!

For all the talk of the new found love between the Tsar and The Donald, yep, I’ve picked my nickname for him, just how much trust can there be in this relationship? Would both sides not make an attempt to hedge their bets? Is the Tsar ever really “all in” on any deal? How about an international Businessman worth Billions? Just how stable is this so called love affair? Do either of them compromise everything they intend on doing for the sake of their working relationship? Silly question, but it leads to a bigger discussion.

TRUST:

The Donald and the Tsar have worked around each other for many years. Their interactions in the Casino business alone has made them understand each other. “What does he want? How does he operate? Who does he ‘trust’? How far do I trust him”? These are very likely questions that have been asked by both men in the past.

Does the Tsar trust that his plans for restacking the deck in Europe will happen with only the interactions of The Donald? No!

Does The Donald rest any concept of the US’s interaction with Europe based on his relationship with the Tsar? No!

So, just how far does this relationship go?

In the world of international relationships, relationships between nations that have had and are having difficult times, are other measures required to give the right message? How does the Tsar Show leverage after he and The Donald start negotiating? More importantly, how does the Tsar or The Donald “Test the Waters”? Is the Tsar looking to see what the US’s response will be if a controlled flare up takes place in Eastern Ukraine? Is it a “test” or is it a “message” or perhaps both?

My take is this. The Tsar is testing the new US President as well as sending a message to Europe. If the Tsar pushes a controlled event in Eastern Ukraine, Europe gets to see just how the Trump Administration will react. The Tsar knows all too well parts of Europe have a real fear the US is pulling away from their issues. They have all heard the talk of the future of NATO. The Tsar is testing the US and placing further doubt in the people of Europe. He won’t let it go too far. It will not get out of hand for now is not the time. His relationship with the new US President is too important right now. But, a little nudge….. a little hint of what could be if things between them don’t go well….. that is just the Tsar’s style! Interaction with the Tsar is far different now than simply dancing around each other over the Casino business! My bet is, The Donald has little to say about the events in Ukraine and that may be just the message the Tsar wants the rest of Europe to hear!

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702031050318233-un-peacekeepers-kiev-donbass/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38850375

THE FIRST “OFFICIAL WARNING TO IRAN”!  STEP ONE IN THE US / RUSSIAN BARTERING GAME?

Before I get started, let me get this out of the way. I told ya so! A few days ago, I posted my opinion the Iranian missile launch story would knock the immigration controversy off the front page, at least for a few days.

So, when was the last time we witnessed a National Security Advisor to the US President be called to the podium during a “normal” White House press briefing? Besides that oddity, did anyone pay attention to the tone of the message? Not your typical, past eight years, talk around the topic. Flynn put Iran, “On notice”! Now, the Iranians know Flynn. They have a profile on him from his days of working in the region. I can assure you that nowhere in that profile does it state, “He tends to embellish. He often says things he doesn’t mean”. Flynn is get to the point kind of guy and that is exactly why President Trump picked him. Once the Iranians got over the shock of this new and unusual way of receiving a message from DC, a reoccurring question must have become the topic of the day. Had the Americans and the Russians begun their plan for the region? Was this round one of a new day in the region?

COINCIDENCE:

It’s true that just about any source of information can be questioned and should be.  Good intelligence operations work best when all sources of information are vetted to the extent possible. Rumors can be a valuable source of information as long as other avenues are taken to validate raw data imbedded in the “Rumor”. So, there is this “Rumor”. A rumor that the Russians have told the Iranians and the Syrians and all Hezbollah to stand fast! There is to be no Offensive Operations anywhere inside of Syria! If this were true and I want to stress the word if, then we would need to stack that event on top of the “Rumor” that the Iranians were not allowed to give any conditions in the Syrian peace negotiations of last week. http://www.debka.com/article/25908/Russia-freezes-Syrian-Iranian-military-movements

  Then we stack that “rumor” on top of the one that depicted all  Iranian backed Shia Militias will not be factored into the post Syrian conflict. Put all of these “rumors” together, valid or close to being valid, and we come up with one undeniable fact. The Iranians are not partners at the Big Table!

So, is it just a coincidence the US takes an open slap at the Iranians? Was the US threat the signal the new deal is underway? If the coverage of this story by Sputniknews.com, the Tsar’s mouthpiece, is any indication, how could the Persians be anything but convinced? What do they do? Call Moscow and asked, “What’s up? Are we just to be left in the dark”? Regardless of what the answer might be, the reality is, the Persians are most likely convinced two of the three true Super Powers in the world are deciding the future of the region and that future doesn’t involve the desires of the Persians. https://sputniknews.com/politics/201702021050274741-trump-iran-missile-test/

MUSIC TO THEIR EARS:

With elections just over the horizon in Iran, once again, harsh actions by the West / US / will play right into the hands of the Hardliners in Iran. Between the arguments the nuclear deal was a hoax by the West and now the US openly putting Iran on notice, the fanatics will take every advantage they can. “I told you so and now we must prepare”! Don’t doubt for a minute that statement, in some form or fashion, is not being repeated in Tehran. Pushing the so called Moderates to the side is the objective of the Hardliners and the events of this week played right into their hands.

Here comes another old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! If the Hardliners in Iran are banking on a more defiant US President. If they are anticipating the Russians making deals that involve the region and not letting Iran in on the game, then they may just get too much of a good thing!  Yes. The US is going to change the attitude towards the Iranian current, and I stress current, leadership. The US and the Russians are going to barter issues in the Middle East to get to more important topics on their plates……. Europe, NATO and the Pacific.  

Yes! The Persians are probably correct! The new game is most likely underway. How fast it moves and what the level of play is what they will need to worry about next. Then again, as I’ve said before, if they feel like they have been played, then how do they react?

Dear Iranian Hardliners. Be very…very….careful what you ask for. The consequences could be dramatic. You have many enemies in the region and the events of the past few weeks are only the beginning of a new day. A day that doesn’t have your dreams on the to do list!