Saturday, February 4, 2017



THE DONBASS ISSUE. AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW

Well, as you get older the saying goes, you get wiser! That didn’t hold true for me yesterday. As I was burning a few brain cells on the latest events in Eastern Ukraine, I missed a scenario that I shouldn’t have. It wasn’t until this morning, when I read this attached article, that I realized a very real scenario. What if the Tsar truly is not behind the flare up in Donbass region of the Ukraine? What if the event is the action of the government in Kiev? How did I not think that one through at the level I should have? I have only one answer. I’ve been so fixated on the concept of a Trump / Putin bartering concept, that I let myself overlook the reality the seated government in Kiev is not made up of a bunch of Knights in Shining Armor. Did Poroshenko and his team plan this latest round of unrest? What is Kiev worried about?

WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE GANDER:

What would a new relationship between the Tsar and The Donald mean for Kiev? In the close door discussions on the future of commitments to Europe, where does the Ukraine fit in? Yes, it’s a major part of the Tsar’s disunion with The Donald, but where is the new US President on the topic? Does Kiev really know? Do they trust what they are hearing? True, Western military leaders are in Kiev. True Western Diplomats are talking to Poroshenko’s team, but what is the level of confidence? Words? Like I always say, “Deeds before words”!
Is the Ukraine any different than many of the other countries as they watch this new dance between the US and Russia? Can the Ukraine simply hope their future turns out the way Western political and military leaders are telling them? Would the US or the Russians settle for such words of assurance?
PERCEPTIONS:
Once again, the ageless issue of perception comes into play and this time, it’s not just the perception from Kiev, but the perception from Moscow!
Yesterday I made the comment there was no way the Pro Russian Rebels / Donbass Militias, take your pick, would instigate military conflict in the region without a green light from Moscow. So ask yourself. Could the Tsar possibly believe the pro-Western government of Kiev would do the same without the knowledge of key Western powers? Interestingly enough, the answer may be “yes”! If someone walked into the room and told Putin there was an unforeseen event taking place in the Donbass region he might believe it was a sanction event given the amount of Western / US / military advisers in Kiev. He might think to himself, “Is Donald testing me? Is he showing me he too can press issues to gain leverage in the ongoing bartering game”?   Remember, we are talking about a very methodical, yet, paranoid Tiger Hunter here! He may come to the conclusion, as this article states that Kiev is simply trying to place the Ukraine issue back on the front burner. Does that mean it had Western support? That’s up to the Tsar to decide!
Perception. It’s the force that drives the world. It’s the core value of two very powerful men. Two men who are in the early stages of dancing a very complicated and dangerous tango! What an ugly mental pictureJ


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