Thursday, December 8, 2016



WITH THE US SANCTIONS ON IRAN TO CONTINUE, WHAT ARE IRAN’S OPTIONS?


As usual, the news and events of the world continue to move at an every quickening pace. As I have said before, this pace makes it extremely easy to overlook key events that are not wrapped in blood or bombs or scandal….you know… the key ingredients Western Media looks for. “Like the song said, “Get the Widow on the set”!

So, the US has extended the sanctions on Iran? Not sure the common Joe in the US knows are cares, but most do think the nuclear weapons deal was a bad move. The Republican held House and Senate absolutely thought so and still do. Even several of the middle of the road Democrats, not many of them left, agreed. But in the end, with all the others events taking place in the US, the story of these sanctions being extended for ten more years, well, it never grabbed anyone’s attention, in the US that is.
The Iranian perspective:
Did anyone in DC really think through the impact the decision to continue the sanctions would have on the pending Iranian elections? I would hope so, but then again, it is DC.
Did anyone rationalize the move to continue the sanctions might strengthen the standing of the “Hardliners” in Iran; as if the “Moderates” were some Liberal group of thinkers?  Probably and if so, what logic did they apply to the process? My bet is this was yet another round of, “let’s defy what the White House wants to do and not really contemplate the second and third order effects of our actions. Okay, before you start twitching, no I do not support the Obama Administration’s stance on the nuclear deal with Iran. It was a disaster and a ploy by the Iranians from day one. What the US ended up with is both sides of the political spectrum making poorly thought out decisions.  
Can the Iranians really afford to walk away from the deal? No. To openly announce continuation of their program, something they are doing anyway, would bring them that much closer to devastation at the hands of the IDF. As I have said time and time again, never ever believe that Israel will ask for permission to attack Iran’s program.
Are the outcomes of the pending elections really open to external influence?  Doesn’t Khamenei and his gang actually control who runs? That might be why DC decided to move forward. What does it matter? Again, let’s hope that DC utilized that much brain matter on the decision.  By the way, with the turmoil in the quest for power in Iran, post Khamenei, the absolute control of how the voting may go could be questionable. Yep, there is a chance the crisis in Iran is deeper than we know. You see, it’s no longer about “Hardliners” or “Moderates”. It’s about who the next Khamenei is going to be.
What options do the Iranians have? Like I said earlier, they can’t just walk away from the agreement, but, they have other options. Shia militias, controlled / supported / by Iran are now operational in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yamen and their ability to destabilize the GCC is always on the table.  I just have to wonder if they anticipated the move by the US from the very beginning. If so, then the “actions” they claim they may take have been well thought out. As a reminder, they never intended to live by this agreement to begin with.
Changes:
With the reality of the Iranian nuclear agreement coming back into play, we should ask ourselves, “Has anything changed”? Well, the leadership in the US has changed and changed dramatically. The involvement of the Russians in the region has “Changed” almost as dramatically as the US leadership. The Iranian involvement, open involvement, in the region has changed is a dramatic manner. So, not only has there been “Change”, there has been widespread, dramatic change!
What does all of this “Change” mean for the agreement? Oh, did I mention how distracted the European members of the initial negotiation team have become? My hunch is, the issue of the Iranian nuclear program is going to rise to nearly the top of the “ need to do something” list for the inbound US President.
Yep, this story just kind of slipped on by a few weeks ago, but I have a feeling the topic is heading back to the front page sooner than many realize.

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