Monday, December 12, 2016



RUSSIA’S UPDATED FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY.  HINTS OF CHANGE?


Yet another example of an important event taking place that just seems to have slipped by the major networks took place two weeks ago. Honestly, It wasn’t until a few days ago, when I was reading this article, that I realized the Tsar had released his countries’ updated Foreign Policy Strategy.
Now, you might ask, “so what”? Why should the average Joe on the street care what this document states? Well, if you like seeing dramatic events take place on the major news networks as you tilt you head like a dog hearing a loud noise, if you like having a major event explained to you because some 30 year old Blond with spiked heels and a slit dress is translating the event for you, our you wait for the plastic hair looking political leader to scramble for airtime in order to look important / gain votes / after a two minute brief from one of their staffers, then simply stop reading what I am about to say. If you are just a little inquisitive as to how your world may be impacted by major events, then let’s travel on.
Major Policy documents by dominant powers in the world, such as this one, are scrutinized long before they are officially released.  A virtual legion of analyst, from multiple countries are assigned to track documents like this one twenty-four hours a day, 365 days out of the year. What is going to be said, what does certain statements “really mean”? These are the questions that billions of dollars are allocated towards with the single goal of finding the most accurate answers. By the time the actual documents are released, the typical reaction is, did it say what everyone anticipated it would say? Just how good was the intelligence community that worked on the project?  
Two schools of thought:
1.       These documents are gospel!
They announce to the world the absolute intent of the nation that released it.  They provide a window into the inner workings of those who call the shots. They are often filled with “hidden meanings….. Subliminal messaging….words between the words”!!!! Hint. This is the area the intelligence community lives for. The geeky guys and girls who have spent their whole lives studying the people who draft the documents. The ones that know the name of the Tsar’s first dog and his second grade teacher’s maiden name. Hollywood loves to portray these folks in just about every government based thriller.
Industry thrives on these documents. Billions or even Trillions of dollars are influenced by what these documents state. The Defense Industry and their Lobbyist spend almost as much time preparing for this level of document as the intelligence industry does and as a matter of fact, if you are about to leave the intelligence industry and want to find a home with the private industry, just show your value by supporting one of the concepts that will be pithed based on the findings of the document. From the industry standpoint, the ability to secure the next generation gadget is based on two issues. One, classified intelligence that shows research and  production and second, documents that state what strategic direction the nation claims they are heading. We must have the new widget given the enemy clearly states they are going to utilize the concept of the widget. The Arm’s Race concept in a very simplistic viewpoint.
2.      These documents are not worth the paper they are written on!
Some see this level of documentation as nothing more than a ploy or even worse, disinformation. Make a few bold statements about what you intend on doing and then watch to see how your enemy reacts. Can you get your enemy to expend billions on concepts that are worthless? Once again, one of the favorite concepts for the intelligence community. Are the statements true if so, what can they find to back them up? Again, billions are spent on trying to determine if the statements are factual or are they a ploy?
Do nations actually follow what they put on paper? Are these documents truly a guideline for what they intend on doing or are they simply required homework, the next is a series of episodes that have a timeline for production? You know, are they simply going through the motions? Imagine how confusing it would be if a nation wrote several of these over a period of time and never followed half of what they said, oh ya, that is usually what happens, and then suddenly they make some dramatic change in strategy? The opposition intelligence community would have a nervous breakdown. With all the overanalyising that takes place mixed in with political leveraging for prestige or party positioning, how is it that any nation can truly determine if a strategic document is worthy of reacting to?
Hugely complex and astronomically important to fiscal expenditure, a Foreign Policy Strategy release by the Russians is vital to every nation that looks across the table at the Tsar. Why did this topic not come up in the past two weeks? Well, in DC the thought process is the common Joe on the Street doesn’t care and wouldn’t understand and even worse…… they are not capable of understanding.   If you disagree, pull this document of the internet and read it and then you decide what it means to you.

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