OK... SO WHEN DO THEY GO?

 If you listened to  Netanyahu speech, some might argue, warning, he gave at the UNGA today, you may have only one question left to ask; " when do they go"?

I would have bet Netanyahu was going to spend a minimal amount of time on the issue of the Palestinian statehood, and I would have been right.  

As important as the PA issue is to some in this world, it is no longer the issue that threatens Israel's survival, at least not yet.

 THE RED LINE CONCEPT:

for weeks now, as everyone has been hearing of this "redline" concept, I've been fairly confident most simply didn't understand what it meant, to include some heads of governments.

What Netanyahu did today was make the concept crystal clear for all to see and hear, but this was not his only goal, it wasn't even his primary reason for giving the example.

What Netanyahu did today was warn the world, Israel has set a definite, finite timeline for war with Iran and he did this in such a way  that there can be no misunderstandings.

Netanyahu has been giving a warning to the world for over fifteen years, but this one was much different and I am convinced this was also his last warning.

So, who was his message really for?

The US leadership?

Partially.

The Arab States, who fear Iran as well?

Perhaps.

It is my opinion his real targeted audience was the people of Iran.

From this day forward, the Iranian people, who's life gets worse with each passing day of sanctions, must wonder how close is their government getting to the Redline?

The sudden "rumors" of a Spring / early Summer / event is a masterful form of psychological warfare.

The Iranian people have been somewhat worried of a pending war, but for the first time they have witnessed the Israeli leadership telling them exactly what event will bring them a event that will change their lives forever.

Will it work?

There seem to be two plausible options for the Iranian people.

1.  rise up against the government, the real hope of the rest of the world.

2.  Take this action by Netanyahu as a threat and rally around their leadership..

THE DANGER WITH NETANYAHU'S PLAN:

In a "healthy" governmental environment, leadership would most likely wait an given amount of time praying the people would rally to the side of leadership.

The problem is, the government of Iran is nowhere near healthy.

Paranoia and lack of trust rules the day, everyday.

No one paid closer attention to what was said today than the Iranian Leadership.

No one other than Iranian Leaders knows the window of time when this next phase of enrichment will take place.

Imagine if they are already there and they truly believe Israel knows this?

Panic is the next phase for Iranian leaders and that is the most dangerous option of all.

I have said this time and time again; why would Iran, knowing an attack is immanent, wait to lose what they have militarily?

Did Netanyahu just push Iran into making the fist move?

Did he intend to do so?

We shall see very soon!

SO WHY IS ERDOGAN  NOT AT THE UNGA?

It's a topic that most have not even taken the time to realize, but yes... it's true.. .Erdogan is not at the UNGA.

Now, not showing up at the UNGA has always been seen as a form of protest and so the speculation is Erdogan is making a point about something.

I would tend to agree with this theory, but the point in this attached article about the actions and events around the PKK in the past few weeks needs to be considered.

Attach that concept to the announcement of Maliki being invited to Ankara and we may have an indication of what is taking place.

It's a well known fact Turkey and Iraq have been struggling with the issue of the Kurds and the Oil the Kurds are selling... to Turkey by the way!

Stack that on top of the perception, rightfully so, that Iraq is supporting Iran's bidding to prop up Assad's regime in Syria and you have the makings of a real complex, regional dilemma.

 The support route through Iraq by Iran is undeniable along with the Turkish perception Iraq is urging on the PKK assaults in Turkey.

So, is all of this making Erdogan stay home from the UNGA?

It may not be the only reason, but it must be playing a part.

Notice the last question in the article about him not attending; the one about the US preventing Turkey from allowing anti air weapons from reaching the FSA / Rebels?

The rumors of these weapons entering the fight, specifically Surface to Air Missiles, have been floating around for weeks now.

The fact we have not seen a You Tube video of one being employed against Syrian aircraft is somewhat of a mystery; or is it?

Read the last article attached and you may be able to determine what the real issue is.

If Iran is flying commercial aircraft into Damascus Airport and the FSA / Rebels know  or believe these aircraft are carrying Iranian troops and weapons, why would they not work as hard as they could to bring one down?

A organization that can bomb the equivalent of the Syrian Pentagon and then physically assault the building, is capable of getting a show off near an international, civilian airport.

 Does anyone think the West, US, would not be worried sick about such an event taking place?

What would be the reaction of Iran?

Who would Iran blame for these SAM weapons showing up in the hands of the FSA/ Rebels? take your pick... Saudi / GCC // the US.

What might this type of event mean to the region and what would it mean if it were to take place before the November elections in the US?

Well; does Erdogan have a lot on his "plate"??? oh ya!!!!

Would he be upset the US is supposedly trying to hold back the implementation of SAM weapons in Syria?

Perhaps!

What is said between he and Maliki, if Maliki agrees to show up, might be very interesting.

Lets see if the meeting takes place.

Oh; by the way!

I can assure you the Ottoman Leader was surly not too happy with the Grandstanding the Muslim Brotherhood leader gave at the UNGA today.

They both have visions of being the Leader of the new Middle Eastern Movement and being out shined while you put up with the Iranian Puppet Maliki and the Kurd issue is not going to make Erdogan happy.

http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=293009

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=96123

http://www.debka.com/article/22385/Iranian-officers-reshape-Assad%E2%80%99s-Shabbiha-militia-into-a-second-al-Qods

THE WORDS OF A MADMAN???

Once again the Mad Carpet Rider makes a fool of himself on the floor of the UN, but then again, what's new about that?

He is set to give yet another tirade on the 27th and I'm confident his babbling will be just as incoherent as at anytime in the past.

For all the "talk" from this crazed fool, it seems simply amazing that anyone could possibly believe Iran could accomplish something as insane as destroying Israel.

The world is full of anti Zionist and as long as they are non violent, then most of the rest of the world simply doesn't care.

It's the ones who listen to delusional fools like Ahmadinejad that worry me, and by the way.... Ayatollah Khomeini is NOT one of the ones that listens to him... he doesn't even like the guy and he sure doesn't trust him!!!!

Now, I must admit, it is disheartening and even a little sickening to watch Western Media play to the Mad Carpet Rider / insert CNN here/!!

Just one time I wish someone would look into Ahmadinejad eye, his good one, and ask, " what do you think will happen to Iran if it does attempt to destroy Israel.. .do you think there would be anything left for the great Persian Empire to rule from"?

Everyone in the world knows what Israel's "final option" is for defeat, even this psychotic idiot from Iran understands.. he may not say so, but he does.. and his Master... Khomeini understands even if his Puppet doesn't.

What the Iranian people need to be thankful for is the simple fact that Israel doesn't judge the capabilities of Iran on the words of the Mad Carpet Rider.

The people of Iran have time, but not much, to keep their country safe.

If ever there was a time for the youth of Iran to move on the government, I would say it is now.. right now...

Time is not on their side and the "old ones" that rule the country are quickly sending the rest of the people of Iran into the abyss.

Thank God, most of the world sees Ahmadinejad as a crazed fool!

Israel will not be fooled into a regional war, but Israel will not allow Iran to reach nuclear weapons status and the world needs to understand that, regardless of who is having an election or who's economy is struggling.

No one really wants a war in the Middle East, not even the Iranian madmen, but lines have been drawn and sometimes you must push through terrible times to survive and that is something the Jewish people understand along with the Arabs.

Palestine is not the true  issue here...

The love of power and the thirst for conquest is an aphrodisiacs  for insane fanatics.

Listen to the Mad Carpet Rider at the UN this week.... and judge for yourself what options Israel has!

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-09/26/content_15783029.htm

THE SEEDS OF DISCONTENT MAY BE SPREADING

As you begin to ponder just what all of this might mean, I would not get your hopes up on who this group represents.

Rafsanjani was and in some circles is still seen, as someone the West can at leas hold intelligent conversations with.

Does that mean he is the answer to the world's prayers when it comes to Iran, probably not, but his resistance to the current leadership is noted.

Now, as all of us know, where a movement starts and where it ends is almost always two entirely different issues.

Faezeh Rafsanjani represents something Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Puppet Master Boss consider a true nightmare, the one that has haunted them from day one of the Arab Spring... Youthful Iranians who want change!

The very idea that the Iranian leadership waited this long to put RAfsanjani's daughter in jail speaks volumes to how worried the Iranian government truly  is.

The smell of Smoke, the smoke of discontent, lingers all over the countryside of Iran.

Young girls beating down fanatical clergy.... cyber cafés that pop up and stand down faster than the government can react to them... these are just some of the signs of how unstable Iran is becoming.

This week, the Mad Carpet Rider, Ahmadinejad will speak at the UN General Assembly  and his message will one that we all need to listen to carefully.

His "meaning" in-between words, must be scrutinized in great detail.

How frightened Iran is of change will be indicated by how radical the message is.

If there is anyone listening to what Ahmadinejad says, it will be the state of Israel.

In this apparent time of " Teletubbies" between now and the November elections in the US, it might very well be only Israel that listens to what Iran's message is to the UN; with the exception of Saudi and the GCC.

As I have said for over two years now, the race is a simple one, but one with cataclysmic consequences for the Western economy and the people of the Middle East.

Will Iran give way to the Arab Spring  model with people like Rafsanjani and his daughter or will Iran's fanatical leadership drive the nation to war and distruction to prevent the youth of Iran from coming to power.

Oh by the way, if and I say if the current Iranian government where to fall, don't bank on Western leaning, beer drinking supporters to coming rushing to the gate to great us.

It hasn't happened yet with all of this " wonderful" change in the Middle East.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=95976

SIGNS... BUT DID ANYONE SEE IT????

Ok, so  this story plays as something almost humorous on CNN.

That, once again, shows me just how out of touch a news network can be.

Now, I have no idea how many times an event such as two Iranian females assaulting a male religious zealot has taken place in Iran,  but I would be willing to bet it's not a common event.

So, why is this story more than just a comical sidebar that CNN picked up on?

Let me go back to an issue I have talked about from the very beginning of the Arab Spring.

What is it that worries the Iranian Dictators the most?

Israel ?

No!

Western sanctions?

No!

It's the horror of waking up and realizing the youth of Iran is sick and tired of Islamic Fundamentalist and the medieval  ideas.

Can you imagine what the reaction was inside the inner circle of Tehran when this story got out?

There can be many ways to spark the fire of resistance, just ask the young punk rockers Pussy Riot followers,  in Moscow.

What level has the discontent of the youth in Iran reached when two females... yes females... beat down a zealot; oh by the way...... notice the level of arrogance these fanatics have....  A women is not even allowed to talk back to them without them making the asinine  accusations of being, "disrespected"....

Sometimes when you are really wishing to see a sign of hope somewhere, sometime, that "sign" comes in a very mysterious and easily overlooked manner.

These two young ladies are heroes in my book and someone needs to make sure they are safe.

In Tunisia, a young man burned himself alive to spark the fires of the Arab Spring.

Perhaps and old man's 'beatdown" is the spark of the flame in Iran.

Let's hope.. lets let these young ladies know they are the future.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/world/meast/iran-hijab-fisticuffs/index.html?iref=allsearch

CHINA AND THE RISK OF SPONSORED "PROTEST".

Early on in the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus/ I wrote about the fear in China of such a social event taking place on the "mainland".

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=8370746890754349993

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=5514219838309665719

As I watch and read of the events taking place there now, the Bo event and the issue with Japan, I can't help but wonder what China may be trying to achieve or perhaps, may be trying to avoid!

One theory on the Bo incident that I have is based upon the possibility of conflict within the Chinese ruling party.

Could it be that a more Nationalistic line of thinking is attempting to rise to the forefront of Chinese leadership?

Could it be that those who have lived in the world of, "we must be patient and passive in order to overtake the West", have lost their collective "passive attitude"?

Is there a faction in China that truly believes the time for China to move to the head of the line is now?

Was the move against Bo, a move to put this faction back in check?

One thing is for sure; China needs to be very careful how they manipulate   "protest" inside China.

The disappearance of the perceived inbound leader for over two weeks was a topic that did not go unnoticed by many in the world.

What was the reasoning behind that event???? Soccer injury??? ya.. right...

Allowing the youth of China to mass and then become violent is something the Chinese leadership can not underestimate.

If a truly Nationalistic fervor is taking shape in China and the current target of that fervor is Japan, no love loss there, then the "Party" might just find itself trying to cope with an issue that could easily transition into a far more dangerous topic.

Public dissatisfaction with the "Party".

We only need to look at the events in Egypt to understand how a movement can start with one intention in mind, and end up with a completely different outcome.

I know this; China and the concept of "Nationalism" is a far more dangerous issue than protest at Western Embassies over a trumped up video.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NI19Ad02.html

IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH.. TRYING TO KEEP THE DISTRACTION.

As I said yesterday, Iran is desperately trying to keep up the distraction created by the scripted protest.

To risk having Nasrallah show his face in public give us an indication of just how hard Iran and Hezbollah are trying to fan the flames.

So, is there  a risk of Iran / Hezbollah / turning this "event" into a game changer?

Nope!

Anyone who believes the Sunni / Arabs / and the Shia / Persians will jointly execute a plan that serves the purpose of Iran... well they are a fool!!!

It's already clear to the MB and Morsi the whole thing has gotten out of control and they realize Iran is now attempting to hijack the issue.

On a side note, I can't help but believe there isn't a little " revenge" by Iran towards Morsi as payback for his jab at Iran during the Nonaligned conference in Tehran.

Although this is a stunt for the purpose of helping Iran take some of the pressure off of Syria, Hezbollah gets something out of it as well.

The crowd he gathered inside Lebanon lets the March 14th / Sunni  / faction know just how mush influence he still has in the country.

As I said yesterday, try as they may, Iran will not get this "event" to work for them very much longer.

The Sunni drive against the Shia is not going to be delayed and the MB has already seen through the Iranian plot.

The protest may linger for a few more days, but I wouldn't count on it going anywhere, unless Iran utilizes the Qud or Hezbollah to instigate another dramatic event.

Even if Iran is able to pull that off, the Sunni leadership / MB / will see through it and will probably try to make "points" with the West by disrupting the event or helping place blame where it belongs.

Yes, no " friendship" last forever in the Middle East and the stoking of these protest never really amounted to a "friendship" to begin with.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/09/2012917155027106315.html

MORSI's AND THE SINAI DILEMMA  

How could it possibly be the tribe of the Sinai could not follow the Master Plan the MB / Morsi have put together for them?

I bet this is a question he and the MB may be asking right about now, although I'm not convenced what we are witnessing is not part of that plan.

Never the less, if it turns out the factions inside the Sinai are truly revolting towards the current government in Egypt, then Morsi has a big... big... problem.

My hunch is he knew some of the factions in the area would not follow his plan, but he and the MB have hoped to convert / convince / enough of them to keep the area stable until it was time to utilize them against Israel.

So, within two weeks, we have now seen two examples of Morsi not having everything go according to "plan".

First was the fiasco of the Cairo protest and now the continuation of the Sinai unrest.

One thing is for sure, again, Morsi and the MB are continuing to learn it is far easier to Run for Office and control than it is to actually be in control.

Let's see how the Sinai turns out for him.

I'm still not convinced he and the MB may not be playing " Good Cop / Bad Cop"; again!!!

http://www.debka.com/article/22360/Al-Qaeda-led-Salafis-hit-three-Egyptian-Sinai-bases-down-Egyptian-chopper-

 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/09/201291682915656385.html

IRAN  PRAYS  THE "UNREST" WILL CONTINUE.

As much as Iran would love to see the distraction from the Sunni onslaught of the Shia, the simple fact of the matter is, the recent unrest in the region will not stop the fall of Assad, the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Arab Spring from spreading into Iran.

The events of this week may not have been coordinated by Iran, but the results, as temporary as they were, gave them exactly what they had been praying for.

It's obvious Iran would love nothing more than to create a unifying event for the Shia and the Sunni and in the process stop the Sunni juggernaut.

Iran knows all too well the events of Cairo were coordinated by Morsi and the events in Lybia were the brainchild of AQ.

They can make all the claims from Tehran they possibly can about this being a sign of the " Infidel" vs the Muslim faith, but it just won't work.

I would absolutely expect Iran to try their best to keep this "unrest" going as long as possible and because of that the West must be very careful on who we blame the next round of violence / terrorist acts.... and there will be more.

Iran's problem is, Morsi's "stunt" in Cairo nearly backfire on him and I don't look for him to push the envelope like that again anytime soon and the MB sure the heck isn't going to do anything to further the cause of the Shai / Persians.

In the spirit of keeping this simple and short; lets recap what happened and what is not going to happen.

Lybia's attack was a AQ event plane and simple.

Morsi's event was a test run for his new and improved version of Islamic radical and it almost backfired on him; as a matter of fact, he is having a hard time with "damage control" both in Egypt and in the West and most of all with the "old School Islamist".

What is not going to happen is ether AQ or the MB continuing any action that takes pressure off of Tehran.

The issue will continue to be the Sunni movement in the region and the fall of Assad, and Hezbollah.

Remember, that doesn't mean we will not see more "Events" soon as Iran tries as hard as it can to keep the " Us against Them" movement going.

WHERE DID THE "BLACK FLAGS GO??? BET I KNOW!!!

So, the day after the " Black Flags" of AQ showed up in Cairo, they have now disappeared?

Why?

I'll tell you why... Morsi and the MB realized the damage this image was about to do to their cause.

The flags may have played well to the Arab youth, but it was obvious the Western media caught on to the significance of their symbolism ,and the MB had to be careful not to let this event spin too far out of control.

As I said yesterday, the AQ Flag has become the new Battle Banner for Islamist in general and the events of Cairo have given this flag a whole new level of prominence.

The flags were visible in Tunisia today as well as in other countries, but not in Egypt?

Why is that?

Answer: Mr Morsi and the MB that's why!

The  travesty of Libya and the events in Cairo are related only in the fact they both took place, deliberately, on the anniversary of 9-11.

Was the protest in Cairo and AQ operation?

In my opinion, no, and that answer leads to a far more interesting and important issue; the transformation of the Islamist movement.

As I said yesterday, I believe we are witnessing the deliberate changing of the guard!

The Bearded Cave dwellers of the AQ movement are being phased out, marginalized or at least this is the plan of the MB.

The new Islamic movement, as designed by the MB is what we witnessed in Cairo.

 Yes.. This is not " Your Father's Cadillac" AQ movement anymore!

That doesn't mean the Bearded Ones will not be relevant, but soon they will no longer be the "Center of Gravity" for the Fundamentalist Islamic movement.

Interesting enough, this transformation is not part of the current AQ leaderships plan.

It's not their idea to become irrelevant while the more patient, methodical Muslim Brotherhood takes control of the movement.

The " Neanderthal" version of AQ is going to be replaced by the "Homosapien" Islamist... and the change agent is the Muslim Brotherhood.

AQ was born under the vision of the MB, and it has served it's purpose well from the standpoint of the MB.

But, the time seems to have come for the next chapter in the MB Master Plan and that chapter calls for the retirement of the AQ style of business.

Does this sound outrageous to you?

I didn't even believe my own logic at first, but the more I watched Morsi, the more I began to understand where the MB heading.

Make no mistake, the AQ version of Islamic Fundamentalism still has it's place as the MB  / Mursi / continues to execute a classic " Good Cop... Bad Cop" scam against the Infidels.  

When the time comes, and it will come, the old AQ ways and the old "leaders" will be betrayed and forced into the pages of history.

You see, they, like the Shia and the Persians and the Ottomans are nothing but Pawns in the Muslim Brotherhood's Master Plan.

If you think this sounds like the ramblings of a fool...well... lets just watch Muris at work for the next few years and we shall see.

A PICTURE OF THE " GAME CHANGER".

Two events in the past 24 hrs have dominated the news, but one I will refrain from talking about, ie the events in Libya. Why I refrain from this is event is based upon some of my private feelings and I must keep from stating them at this point in my life.

So, let me get on with the event in Egypt and what it means to the rest of the free world.

Take a good look at the picture I have attached to this post.

Is this the mental picture you have when someone says, " Islamic Fundamentalist / Radical Islamist?

The obvious answer for most of the world is no!

So, why does this picture worry people like me?

For almost two years some have had the opinion the Arab Spring had been and would be kidnapped by the Islamist.

I think I've had that conversation a thousand times since the first protest in Tunisia.

The ability of key influential, persuasive, manipulative "leaders" to talk young, unemployed, "lost" young men into committing violent acts; acts they may not truly understand the true purpose; well...... It works!

Creating an "us against them" climate is not hard to do when you are persuading people who are lost on the path of life.

So, here comes the million dollar question!

Is this the new face of Islamic Radicalism?  

Is this the mutation of AQ that UBL dreamed of?

You see, AQ was never intended to be a group of Elitist Fighters who march into martyrdom while the rest of the Muslim world sing songs about their exploits.

UBL's dream was to have the movement go, in the words of my coworker, "Mainstream".

The Black flag of AQ, the one the US DoS would not admit to this morning, has become the new " Battle Banner" for the youth of Egypt, or so it would seem.

Is that all the youth?

No, but it's the ones that didn't wave that flag last year that count.

Ok; from the very beginning of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus /  my name for the movement I will not come off of, the fear was the transformation of young, unemployed adults, grasping onto something that gives them purpose.

It's what lost young people do.

Now, some might be speed reading this post and jump to the conclusion I am painting a picture of all the young people in Egypt morphing into AQ members... far from it.

In reality, it is the AQ mindset that is transforming and the "Masters" of that transformation in the Mother Ship of the movement... The Muslim Brotherhood!

What was Morsi play in the events of yesterday?

If you say he had no play in that day, you are a fool and fools go into history as the stepping stones of others.

Let me spell out for you what I believe happened yesterday in Egypt.

Morsi has been on a steady course to transform Egypt into the center of the Muslim world and  to have the Sunni dominance of that world.

What better way to test his new " Militia" of youth, after nutralizing the Generals in the Egyptian Military, then to give them a mission.

Let me ask you something.

Does anyone really think all these "kids", look at the photo again, were just sitting around the with these brand new, clean black flags, the flag of AQ, and suddenly decided to protest at the US embassy over a movie on You Tube that has been out for months?

And so these "kids" happen to have one of these black flags larger than the others they had mounted to sticks to carry, that they could replace the US flag on the US compound?

Really... that was a spontaneous event??? Really????

This was not a IED event.. this was not an open, attack to kill a US Ambassador... this was not a classic AQ event.

This was Morsi's new militia going on a test run; a militia based on Islamic values driven to violence by a few key leaders... the MB.

How in the world did they get to the walls of the US embassy on the anniversary of 9-11?

Was the date not a indicator to the Egyptian government to have extra security near the US compound?.... Really???

Look at the pictures... look how long the event took place... Where were the guards?

If there is a reason they are not in the photos, and I would bet there is some lame political level response by Egypt, then the other problem is the perception of the American public.

I could go on and on, but the facts are becoming ever more clear..

The time of the free world trying to find a way to live with Islamic Fundamentalist; even some perceived " middle of the road version" like the MB is gone!

It is time to see Morsi for what he is.. the reprehensive leader of a well oiled, dangerous movement with a long history of death...the Brotherhood!

It's time to understand the dream of UBL, a child of the MB movement, could be coming true.

The old AQ may be still out there with all the talk of them being dysfunctional due to killing key leaders, but the fact of the matter is the Islamic Awakening make be taking hold and it may be taking hold in a group that is susceptible to any form of pride and hope...   something Morsi and his MB knows better than anyone else in the Middle East.

This event was far more than a protest against some You Tube clip.

This could very well be the first round of a new, more recognized phase of the MB "Master Plan"..

FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!

A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order effects of "Sanctions".

Now, it's a common understanding the current list of sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place social pressure on the government of Iran.

As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically run government.

The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.

Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.

Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it didn't work.

That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can rest their future on.

I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that is a risk that has been assumed.

Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran to take to the streets?

Perhaps, but not anytime soon.

Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?

That is my fear!

Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his Boss?

Most likely!

The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?

One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical and there is no real love between them.

Did the West take this tension into consideration before the sanction's plan was implemented?

I seriously doubt it!!!!!!

So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?

The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?

Nope!

The fall of the radical government?

Not anytime soon.

The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract the Iranian people?

Most likely!!!

One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to blame someone.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=284675

A REOCCURRING THEORY THAT'S WORTHY OF REVIEW.

All three of these stories talk to an issue that has been bouncing around from the very beginning of the "Arab Spring".

The concept of the Arab Spring, one being hijacked by the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and two having an end state that is both detrimental and advantageous to the West is nothing new.

As I have stated in over the past two years, I truly believe the Muslim Brotherhood " Master Plan" ends with an Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / even inside of Israel.

Somewhere along this path the GCC states, especially Saudi will suffer the same fate, but the Israeli issue will wait to be the final act.

As I have said in the past, no one knows this better than the Saudis and the Israelis and it is for that reason a " pact" is not out of the question.

Both Saudi and Israel believe Iran is in a never ending quest to " weaponize" the Arab Spring movement without allowing this weapon to create doom inside Tehran.

Again, my theory is the Iranians are gambling with their own existence.

The concept they wish to utilize to bring down the governments of Saudi and Israel are the very concepts that may very well spell their own end.

Although this concept of the Arab Spring being manipulated by all parties in the Middle East is not new, what has changed is the reality of the fall out.

The process of "Weaponization" of the Arab Spring has ignited the tinderbox of sectarian conflict.

With the lack of truly professional governorship in the Middle East and this long history of sectarian hatred, the weapon created has quickly begun to overwhelm both sides of the conflict.

What I find amazing, and perhaps I shouldn't give the history of the Middle East, is the fact that all sides of this conflict seem more interested in concurring the other than they are stopping the beast that is in the process of destroying all sides in the region.

What is happening in the region is quickly becoming uncontrollable by all sides involved to include the worlds major powers.

The ability to be " proactive" is all but gone in the Middle East.

The technology of weapons mixed with long lasting hate topped off by youthful unemployment is in the process of turning the whole region into a uncontrollable fire.

Those who are reluctant to make hard decisions about controlling these events in the Middle East are about to run out of time and will realize all too late just how destructive the impact will be to the rest of the world.

As oil goes, so goes the world economy...

If you don't believe that, than you to will watch history unfold right in front of your very eyes.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/09/201291010263945370.html

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=95282

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=284593

ERDOGAN REDEFINES THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT.

You can find several versions of this story on the web, but only a few picked up on the real issue... the PKK...

 http://english.nuqudy.com/Levant/Turkey_Calls_Syria_-3128

Ergogan's frustration with the West, namely the US, is also beginning to show up more an more frequently.

His comment in his CNN interview that ' perhaps' the US November elections has something to do with the lack of movement', is a subtle but deliberate shot at the US.

Having said this, lets get down to brass tacks about the Middle East.

This might not go over well with many of the leaders there, but  the simple fact is very few countries in the Middle East really care about " Refugee issues".

If you don't believe me, I would ask you to look at the Palestinian " Refugee Camps".

The Palestinians can't own land, they can't have citizenship in countries where most of them under the age of 40 were born and raised.

Now, those countries will say something like, " we cannot give them citisenship because that would be admitting to Israel the Palestinian State will never exist"!!!!..

Right!!!

The truth of the matter is, they don't want these "nomads" sticking around, voting and beginning to place demands on the governments where they live.

Again, just go ask the Palestinians who live in Lebanon how they are treated... or try Jordan.

Erdogan is far more concerned about the destabilizing factor these Syrian refugees bring to the tribal areas of Turkey then he is about their overall welfare.

Unfortunately, that is not the issue that caused his statement about Syria being a Terrorist run state.

The truth of the matter is the issue that keeps Erdogan up at night is the PKK and the Kurds!

A Kurdish uprising, a Kurdish Spring, is a true nightmare to Turkey.

Erdogan also realizes Assad has decided to support the PKK given Assad's knowledge of the Turkish support to the Syrian rebels.

Here is what I believe Erdogan is really up to when he relabeled the Syrian government.

His attempts to get the West to support a " No Fly Zone".. a flawed   concept by the way, has gone nowhere.

If Erdogan could have achieved a " Safe Zone / No Fly Zone" in Northern Syria, the ability of the Kurds to strike out on their own would have been severely impacted.

Without this outside support, the idea of Turkey moving on Syria unilaterally was unachievable and would have ended in a political trap for Erdogan's party.  

Knowing this  "Safe Zone" concept of keeping the Kurds in check is not going to work, Erdogan has redefined what the problem is in Syria.

Terrorism!!! The key concept that Erdogan hopes will unlock the door to military action in Syria.

Think about it.

To create a " Free Zone / No Fly Zone / the outside world would have to openly risk war with Iran / Iraq and Syria and everyone knows it.. that's why nobody will vote for it.. .the Russians and the Chinese are doing the rest of the world a favor and at the same time taking the heat....... Ingenious on our part!!!!

But, when you change the topic to " Terrorism" we suddenly redefine what is allowed.

In the war on Terrorism, we are allowed to conduct ' limited strikes' inside someone's country without committing to a full scale operation; think of the US operations in Pakistan as a prime example.

A drone strike here.. a cruse missile there and the next thing you know, Assad is knocked from a balance of power without a committed / sanctioned operation in Syria.

The lovely world of ambiguous Terrorism operations.

Erdogan is a good student and he knows this process may just give him what he needs... the right to fly into Syrian airspace... take out PKK sites in Syria and yet not be accused of attacking the Assad regime.

Remember, Iran doesn't want a war with Turkey, they can't afford it!

If the Iranians believe Turkey is taking action on Syrian land but it's limited to the PKK, it may just tell Assad to sit tight...

Remember... Iran has no love for the Kurdish issue as well.

Erdogan has one issue on his mind right now when it comes to Syria and that is the Kurdish issue.

He loves the idea of oil trade with them, thereby controlling their economic pace, but the idea of Kurds forming a Kurdistan is completely out of the question and he will not allow that concept to take root   inside Syria.

The refugee issue is a false issue in the Middle East, unless you are talking about their ability to create unrest in the countries where they flee.

The Kurds are issue number one in Turkey and that is an issue that will be dealt with one way or another. 

MURSI AND THE COURSE CHOSEN BY THE BROTHERHOOD!

Everyday, as I read more and more about the actions of Mr. Mursi, I become more convinced that my theory of a " Master Plan" for the MB is in process.

Less that a week after traveling to Iran and trumping the Iranian leadership, Mursi is now out to take over the concept Iran tried to take credit for.

Iran tried to formulate a "Troika" on the Syrian issue, but Mursi would not be out done.

Today, as he announced his "Quartet, it was obvious he had pulled ahead of Iran in the Statesmanship race.

Side note: I wonder how the Turkish leadership is reacting to the drive by Mursi to be the Regional Statesmen?

As Iran did with him, Mursi was smart to invite the Iranian leadership to the meeting.

The one thing Mursi will not make the mistake of is letting Iran play the trump card on Mursi's political stunt/ Quartet.

When this meeting takes place, it will be about Mursi.

What will be even more interesting is how the Saudi's and the Turks react and what they have to say.

Now, as you read this short article, you will notice a message inside the message.

Big surprise for the Middle East huh??

Remember my theory of the Muslim Brotherhood's "end state" for the region.

The Arab Spring in Israel.

Solving the Syrian issue is just a step in the journey to reinstating the Palestinian state.

The problem has become the Syrian phase of the plan has taken far too long.

Mursi and the MB need the Syrian issue behind them and that means they need to see the Suni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood running Damascus.

In this long journey, if Iran must fall in a reckless war with Israel... well that is what we call a "twofer"..... Persians dealt with and Israel trying to climb out of a horrific war.. a war were the Israeli people will be ready for peace and normality.

So you see, Mursi needs the Syrian issue behind him..

It's is taking too long and the MB Master Plan is falling behind schedule, even for a group as patient as the MB.

What comes out of this "Quarted" will not be near as interesting as how the attendees react to what is said.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=94981

FOLLOWING THE TURKISH MODEL:

70 Generals "retiring" all nearly at the same time is not a coincidence.

Once again we see Mursi executing his "plan" in a pattern that is all to recognizable to all of us  now.

Simply do something... smile.. and then make a comment about how nothing extraordinary is happening and everyone should just ignore the event.

It's a skill Mursi continues to demonstrate that I find fascinating.

This particular plan, the replacement of Egyptian Generals is one I anticipated months ago.

Mursi is a good student of successful movements and he studied the events in Turkey well.

If you have a group of military leaders who may not follow you or worse yet, may pose a threat to your leadership... simply replace them with ones that will support you.

If you are a young Senior Officer in the Egyptian military and you see your seniors being removed, you have two choices.. follow them ... or fall in line.

With each passing day, Mursi shows the rest of the world just how deliberate and calculated he and the Muslim Brotherhood really are.

The worlds attention span right now is not even close to watching what goes on in the Egyptian military ranks.

The world, with the exception of the Israeli leadership that is!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19456182

HEZBOLLAH... MORE DESPERATE BY THE DAY!

For months Iran has charged Hezbollah and the Iranian Quds forces with executing a series  of attacks on Israeli targets; a mission that has only once proven to execute successfully.

As I have stated time and time again, these attacks appear to be primarily to goat Israel into action; action that Iran needs to have a chance of surviving the changes in the Middle East.

Hezbollah has been agreeable to this task given two things, one Iran is their "Master" and key supplier and two, like Iran Hezbollah realizes their time is possibly coming to an end.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9282

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9279

In the past three months, Nasrallah and his minions have seen the beginning of the end of Hezbollah rule in Lebanon, thus his desperation now matches Iran's; they both need "outside" conflict and they need it soon.

The problem with Narallah's dream is the simple fact he knows the real enemy is the Sunni movement crossing the region.

When the dust settles, there will be no Hezbollah based power group in Lebanon.

When the dust settles, Hezbollah will be forced to make a choice; become a truly minority political movement or simply be a Terrorist based, marginalized organization much like Al - Quada 

Hezbollah's time is coming to and end or......... it's time for a change.

The choice is up to it's followers far more than it is up to it's leaders.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=283706