THE BATTLE FOR QUSAYR... HEZBOLLAH REALITY CHECK!!!

The author of this story brings up several valid issues that are worthy of further, tactical analysis.

Before we get to the issue of Hezbollah's concerns, lets take a quick look at  the so called "malitias" the Iranians have pushed into Syria.

These sectarian militias have one goal and one goal only, to act as cannon fodder in the classical sense of warfare.

Simply put, they are not expected to be tactically proficient or even combat effective.

They were put into the fight to allow the more skilled Syrian and Hezbollah units to maneuver once the Cannon Fodder units were tossed into the fight.

Made up of young men with nothing else to do with their lives and no real future, the thrill of combat and a small paycheck landed them in an operation will they will be chopped up, accused of War Crimes, given most of them are common criminals for hire, and left on the battle field if needed by Assad or Hezbollah if needed.

Ok, lets move on to the real issue with the fighting in Qusayr?

What if......what if... Hezbollah finds itself being fought to a standstill?

What if Hezbollah units have to pull back after taking ground they died for?

How do they sell that to a "base" that is having a hard time accepting their actions even as they seem to be doing well?

How much of their force are they truly willing to commit to the fight in Syria?

What do they leave to the rear to defend the "Base" if needed and it appears that threat is growing with every hour that passes.

If Iran orders them " all the way in", will they do it?

How much of their fighting ability are they willing to get bogged down in Syria as Israel gladly watches on with a smile?

Here is the classic issue Hezbollah has never historically had to account for.

What is the "Exit Plan"?

Exit planning....something the truly professional militaries struggle with.

How long does Hezbollah's leadership "sell" the death toll to it's "base"?

If Qusayr falls, can Assad's forces hold it without Hezbollah?

Oh.... you see.....it's so easy to get into a fight.... but the art of getting out.....well ... that is something Hezbollah has little knowledge of.

If Hezbollah is now officially caught in a "grind" inside Syria, who does it really benefit?

I bet we all know that answer!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/hezbollah-slips-in-qusayr

QUSAYR.. IRAQ  AND LEBANON..WHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?

Ok, let's go back to the concept of each side in the Syrian conflict attempting to open "Second Fronts" on the opponent.

As we have talked about before, it's obvious the injection of Hezbollah has put new life into the Assad camp.

It is also more than obvious the Persians have decided, after being given the go ahead by the Tsar, up the support tempo to Assad.

We have also gone over the concept of how the Sunni have made the conscious decision to put pressure on the Hezbollah "home front" in Lebanon; thus... a Second Front concept.

It also has become abundantly clear the Sunni game plan for Iraq has been activated knowing full well the aggravation and distraction this will create for the Persians and the Iraqi support to Assad.

Yep; a Third front concept is underway!!!

So, with the score two to one in favor of the Sunni team, the issue of Qusayr comes to life.

What better way to pull the Sunni forces out of the city limits of Damascus then to attack to the rear!!!!

Yes, some of the issue of Qusayr is the issue of cutting off supply lines from Lebanon, but Qusary has absolutely nothing to do with support flowing from Turkey and everyone knows it.

Yes, Homs becomes and issue now, but the concept of the Persian lead forces.. Yes I said Persian lead forces.. taking Homs is a bridge too far even for Hezbollah and the Iranian militia support teams, at least right now.

Now, if we are going to get into the Second Front.... Third Front concept discussion, then why not look at what is taking place in the Golan?

Is Assad or his Persian Bosses trying to entice Israel into a conflict in the Golan?

I don't think so.

It's the threat and intermittent aggravation from that area that the Persians and Assad hope will keep Israel occupied.

A poor plan I might add.

And finally, lets relook at what is taking place in Lebanon in the past few days and what may be changing.

Tripoli is once again a hotbed for conflict and I'm not sold on the fact that the Second Front concept took into consideration what might happen in Lebanon.

It's one thing to think you can distract your enemy with attacks to their base, but without carefully thought out considerations for events ether side may not be able to control, a Second Front "plan" may just turn into a full blown crisis.

Ok, here is the problem with the whole region at this moment in time  and it's getting more dangerous by the hour.

When major events are planned by minor, individual thinkers, insert Clannish mentality here, even the "Big" players may not be able to control what happens.

There is a mad rush to a proposed "peace conference" right now and we have to wonder what has put the panic into the "big players"?

Perhaps they know things are about to spin out of control and they all sound like Chicken Little. AGAIN!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201352071548212347.html

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/tripoli-clashes-heat-up

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/qusayr-resisting-all-out-attack

HEZBOLLAH JOINT ASSAULT ON QUSYR:

So, let me guess, the Tsar and the Persians are going to say, "there is no indication Hezbollah is involved in the fighting for Qusayr"!!!

It's often absolutely amazing when one group makes such an outrageous statement, one almost has to wonder how they can do so with a straight face.

In the early stages of Iran's involvement, and trust me there are Iranians involved in the attacks on Qusayr as well, the canned speech use to revolve around, "they were on a religious pilgrimage when they were killed"..

Yep, that storyline was almost as pathetic as the one I am sure they will use today over actions in Qusayr.

So, let me pose a question to the Tsar and the Persians.

Do they truly believe the GCC members, Turkey and the West will accept this shameful, "we see no evidence"?????

Here is an even more disturbing angle on the topic.

What on earth is the Hezbollah puppet government in Lebanon going to say?

As I have said for the past several days, it's amazing to me the path the Tsar and the Persians are taking towards this conflict.

Weapons movements that are outrageous..... open support in Syria by "outsiders" while the Tsar and his Puppet nation in Iran warn that everyone should stay out of the fight and the future of Assad is up to the Syrian people.

What a complete joke and I'm betting its a joke that is going to backfire with disastrous results.

If I was in a Hezbollah held center in Lebanon... I would work real hard to keep my family away from parked cars starting right now!!!

BRINKMANSHIP... BUT ON WHOSE PART AND AGAIN....WHY????

Last week I posed the question why would Iran push weapons to Hezbollah they know will cause Israel to react?

I've  have a different spin on the same question?

Why would the Tsar do the same thing?

S-300 and Yakhont systems are both clearly seen as at another set of Red Lines for Israel and they have all but made that point on several occasions.

So, again, the questions of why and why now?

It's been said time and time again, but perhaps we are simply not grasping the point.

Perhaps what is taking place in the Middle East is no longer about just the Middle East!

Why did we ever believe the concept of regional "Proxy" wars between World Powers would never become an issue again?

What made us think those days were, "cold war" days and thus they were history?

Is it just a matter of principle with the Tsar?

Did he promise Assad these systems and he is hell bent to keep his word?

Are the Iranians on-board with this plan or are they just puppets to the Master?

However you may look at this larger question, one thing stands firm in the world of reality vs political Brinkmanship; once military mistakes become military actions, the time to prevent conflict disappears.

Israel's warnings this week were given for a reason.

The rumor that Assad's forces will not simply sit back if Israel strikes again is most likely more than just a rumor.

I'm afraid before we can get a grasp on "why" we may be dealing with "how bad"!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-18/217530-brinkmanship-in-syria-boosts-risk-of-regional-war-with-israel.ashx#axzz2TfMOSURt

A COMPLICATED AND PERPLEXING PENDING BATTLEFIELD!!

Ok, so back to the discussion of a pending conflict between Hezbollah and Nusra!

As has been mentioned before, the fact this conflict is predicted to take place should come as no surprise.

Assad's gains, temporary in my opinion, over the past few weeks are attributed to the increased support of Hezbollah and the other "units" provided and supported by Iran.

The concept of opening a Second Front on the Syrian Rebels and the Syrian Rebels intern contemplating opening a Second Front for Hezbollah in Lebanon makes the process of keeping the scorecard for this event difficult at best.

Now, given this event is growing closer and closer with each passing day, it's important to revisit where Israel and Turkey and Jordan and the West fit into this pending change / escalation of events.

But, before we do that, lets refresh the most important aspect of this event, Iran's vision of where it is going and how that "vision" fits in with it's silent, well somewhat silent, partner.....the Tsar!!!

As I have said time and time again, from the Tsar's viewpoint, the world is good.

The world oil markets is well above the acceptable bottom-line and the Tsar is all about making money for money fuels the rebirth of the Russian Empire.

Now, remember, the trick is not letting this "event" in the Middle East get too out of hand.

Making money is good......regional war...well... they may be a bad thing in the long run!!!

A world market that is depressed based upon a devastating regional war equates in to crashing oil prices and that is a bad thing for the Tsar.

So, conflict .... Tsar says good.....

Open Regional War....Tsar probably says.."Bad thing"!!!

The Tsar's second goal and trust me, it's an important one to him... prestige!!!

Showing the world the West cannot make decisions on global issues without Russian inputs, well that is a vital task for the Tsar.

Just about the only thing not allowed to get in the way of the ego of the Tsar is the price of oil.... remember... that is goal number one at all times!!!

Ok, so the Tsar wants the world to know you cannot deal with the Middle East without dealing with him and his crazy little Persian puppets.... Puppets that don't like the Tsar by the way!!! Nothing worse than loathing you Boss!!!

Iran knows their plans for the region may not match the plans of the Tsar, but they must be very careful how they deal with this dilemma.

Perhaps the Persians will betray the Tsar, but that is a plan for a latter date!!!

One "Infidel" country at a time!!!

Both the Tsar and the Persians have a real problem, this dangerous Civil War between the Sunni and the Shia!!!!

To the Persians, the issue is far more dangerous and hence they are more likely to be willing to take drastic actions to combat this religious civil war.

On top of that, this maddening thing called Social Media has the Iranians worried sick about their next round of fixed elections, and that is something their Master could care  less about!!!

Ok, the picture should be clearing up by now.

The Puppets and the Master have different "goals" and concerns and that is an inherent weakness to their alliance; a fact that doesn't go unnoticed by the Arabs and the Israelis and oh by the way.... the Ottoman's as well!!!

The Ottoman's, the competition to the Tsar and the Arabs for the Oil market in the region.

Now, let's get back to the issue at hand.

The major players know the battlefield is filled with these crazy little groups of fanatical thugs, but the "thugs" work for several Masters.... namely the Arabs and the Persians.....

As a reminder, this has virtually nothing to do with the freedom of the Syrian public....those poor people had their dreams stolen, much like Egypt, over two years ago.

Do the Persians really want the fight to move into Lebanon?

Does the Tsar or the Ottomans or the GCC?

If not, how do they stop it?

Once you let a Thug run lose for too long, they start to believe they run the place.

Is that where Nusra and Hezbollah really believe they stand as of today?

Here is a frightening fact that perhaps is becoming more and more a reality.

The Thugs have been allowed to run free too long!!!

The Thugs think they are calling the shots now.. remember... Hezbollah is Arab not Persian and doing everything exactly as Iran / the Persians tell them may not always hold true.

History is stacked with events that spiraled out of control and that spiral has been the fear for over two years now.

What does the Tsar and his Puppet / Persian / lapdog want?

And if they don't have the same goal, how can they stop a event from taking place when the Thugs they control have gotten out of control?

Here is my fear, a fear larger than the one listed above.

Is Hezbollah about to realize that Syria is it's new Lebanon?

Does Hezbollah become the proxy government of Syria after the Tsar and the Persians do Assasd in?

Talk about a Red Line!!!

I love all the talk about a "diplomatic solution"....

Someone please explain to me what that might look like?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-imminent-hezbollah-nusra-war

PKK ARRIVES IN IRAQ???. THE QUESTION IS... NOW WHAT?

On several occasions, I've commented on the issue of the Kurds and what it is they are looking for out of the upheaval that has become the Middle East.

As we watch the PKK move into Iraq, are all of them going there... that's a good question, the Iranians simply are not happy.

As I have said before, the Persians from day one have worried about the founding of the new Kurdistan and what that will mean to the Iranian "Master Plan".

It's been on the minds of the Ottomans as well and my bet is still they struck that deal with the PKK to let the problem go land on Syria's / Iran's and Iraq's lap!!!

Oil from the Kurdish area of Iraq and a slice of Northern Syria means a route to the Mediterranean Sea; a plan that mar or may not include  Turkish involvement.

Now, for the government of Iraq to have  PKK fighters showing up in Iraq, well that's like watching a professional Hit Squad move into the house next door!!

Having said that, let me make one tactical comment to the Iraqi government... if you come after the PKK, you better have a far better force than the one you have now!!!

The Women in the PKK are better fighters than just about anything the Iraqi military has encountered. 

My bet is this, if over a thousand members of the PKK are showing up in Iraq, they are not preparing to sign up for online agricultural classes!!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/is-everyone-really-looking-for.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/07/iran-threatens-iraq-pay-close-attention.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-beginning-of-kurdistan-and-end-of.html

IRANIAN ELECTIONS... CAN THE CRACK IN GOVERNMENT WIDEN?

So, Rafsanjani shows back up as some had predicted?

 This will make the process interesting to say the least.

At 79 yrs old, he is one of the most colorful and complex individuals that could possibly enter the race.

Not in the Ahmadinejad camp...not in the "reformist camp".... not in the "ultra conservative camp"... and when you get right down  to it..... it's hard to tell where he stands on issues from day to day.

A "pragmatist"??? I would question that categorization!!

A well schooled "opportunist" is my definition of this old political master of Iranian politics.

A great deal will be written about what this might mean to the elections as the next few weeks pass, but one thing is for sure; the close-hold meetings with Khamenei's inner circle  will be intense.

For all the complexities of the pending election, by far the most important issue will become how does Khamenei handle the process?

Can he over influence the process thus jeopardizing results?

Can he control the outcome as well as he did in 2009 without repercussions?

Can he control the infighting that is going to take place over the next few weeks?

How much attention does he have to give the process as he sits and worries over the Russians and the US cutting a deal on Syria, a deal the Iranians may very well not be party to?

Yes, my friends, as advertised........ the elections this time around in Iran are going to be far more than "interesting"!!!

They could prove to be dangerous to the "old guard"!!!

Iran's time and energy is about to be split between Syria... a proxy war with it's loyal lapdog Hezbollah feeling the strains even internally, the danger of a rebellious Iraqi environment covered with the issue of those always "pesky" Kurds..... and most of all..... A Tsar who the Iranians know all too well will make "deals" based on what is good for Russia and not what is good for Iran and the paranoid Persians.

Let's watch the Iranian leadership squirm!!

http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-iran-election-race-opens-surprise-candidate-enter-192900412.html