SO... IS IT TRUE??? I SAY YES!!!  SYRIA IS A LIBYA ON STEROIDS!

It's not a new argument the Syrian Opposition would want sound the alarm on Islamic radicals growing in power as the Civil War goes on in Syria.

Some argue this is just the Opposition trying to gain legitimacy with the rest of the world as they prove they are the only ones the world should "deal" with.

Here is the problem with that worn out concept.

It's true!

It's true they now recognized opposition  is the only group even close to working with in Syria and that is exactly what has happened in the past two weeks.

It's also true the Islamic groups are growing by the day not only in capabilities, but in acceptance by the general population and that perhaps the most dangerous issue of all.

Jabhat al-Nusra has no intention of solving the Syrian crisis in a manner that is conducive to the West or the UN.

If you think the Islamic radicals filled their weapons stashes after the fall of Libya, so much so they have moved out in three different directions now in Africa, then as the old saying goes........."you ain't seen nothing yet"!!

Today, the rumors of just how close Assad is from collapse continued to grow and Jabhat al-Nusra is one of the primary reasons and they know it.

For months now some, like me, have asked, " what happens if Assad leaves or falls overnight"?

Just the other day I posted on the topic of the commonality of rapid collapse.

The topic of Assad and his WMDs filled the airwaves and the rooms  of many important meeting halls today, but the simple truth is; does anyone really have a plan for all of Syria if the collapse happens?

On paper, I would have to say yes, it's what many agencies do.... "plan".

The question becomes... will the "plan" work?

Assad is near the end and that is when an animal is most dangerous.

What happens next in Syria is hard to predict, but I would be willing to bet whatever the event is, Jabhat al-Nusra will demand a say in the outcome.

Yep... What a mess!!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Dec-04/197095-syrias-opposition-warns-of-a-rise-in-extremists.ashx#axzz2E0X5ilds

AGAIN.. THE ISSUE IS INTERPRETING WHAT WAS SAID!!!!

Two days ago, when I spoke of Assad's increasing desperation as he battled for Damascus International Airport and the fact the rebels now had Surface to Air Missiles,  it should have been very clear what "option" I was insinuating he may be preparing for.

The rebels have been talking for weeks about "activities" near the Syrian WMD sites and often it may have been a case of nobody really wanting to hear that kind of bad news.

It seems now, even those who hope it would all just go away are starting to come to the realization many of us did last year; Assad will use what he has once he has no other options.

Rather than saying, " I  told you so", lets look at what he may try and accomplish.

First off, lets review carefully what his official position continues to be.

His government states they would never use WMD on their "own people"?

Does that mean those loyal to Assad?????

Does that mean Syrian people all together?

Does that mean he will make up a story about "outsiders" / "Terrorist" being inside Syria?

He has already painted that picture, one that is true to some extent, for over a year now!

Will he claim the rebels / Terrorist / captured some of these weapons and then used them on the innocent people of Syria?

That is one theory, but I must admit not only is it a weak concept, but one that will not hold an once of support by anyone with the exception of perhaps Iran.

Some of these questions are difficult to predict answers for,  so lets move onto something just as important; what if he does use WMD?

What would he use?

Where would he use them?

How would he use them/

Here are my bets.

One, he would use Nerve agents not bio..

Bio is too difficult to work with and the outcome is far less predictable.

It's also far more complicated to execute than rocket or bomb delivered chemical / nerve / agents.

When it comes to chemical agents, two facts must be taken into consideration.

1.  What is the target and who is near it?

2.  What is the lifespan of the agent used?

Rebel positions near the border of Turkey would have issues of persistency and wind direction as limiting factors.

The reaction of the Turks to such an event is almost a no brainier... the fight is on!

Utilization near the border with Israel is nothing short of suicide for Assad and his government; and that fact worries me more than I would like to admit.

A remote target is a safer bet, if there is such a thing, but the impact on the rebels will be minimized.

So, that brings up the next logical question.

Why would he risk using them?

Before I try  to answer that, let me add what really worries me.

Question!!!!

Would Assad ask for permission from Iran prior to utilizing WMD?

Are we to assume Iran will have approved of Assad's plan if it does happen?

If we make that assumption, then we have a far more complex and dangerous event about to unfold.

If he is " going it alone" then will Iran stick by his side?

This is the part of this whole WMD issue that worries me the most!

Ok, what can be done about all of this?

One article attached states Israel has already asked for permission to take preemptive action?

That lead us to the next question.

Does the rest of the world wait until the weapons are used or does the world / US and "others" neutralize an imminent threat to regional peace?

This is always the hardest issue for leadership and this time is no exception!

The answer is factored on several key issues and Iran is one of  them.

One thing is for sure, these weapons, once made, mixed, don't like just sitting around.

If Syria has really mixed WMD / Chemical weapons, the idea of having ready to go just sitting around is as dangerous as you can get.

The warning given today by the US where as hard as they can come and Assad must think long and hard before he jumps off into the abyss.

Right along side Assad is Tehran!!!

Do they truly believe there is a price to pay for utilizing WMDs?

Time will tell, and time is not on Assad's side.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=294441

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20583966

http://www.debka.com/article/22583/US-Israel-Turkey-Jordan-primed-to-strike-if-Assad-activates-chemical-weapons

WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE?? ASSAD MAY NOT LIKE THE ANSWER!

For a solid two weeks the Syrian Rebels have made solid gains in several key areas.

It is unavoidable for the world not to have the opinion the rebels are truly gaining the upper hand and that has to be driving Assad's paranoia to the breaking point.

The battle for the area around the International Airport is still up for grabs with Assad's commanders realizing they must avoid damaging the support facilities near the airport that makes the whole place function.

The short answer is, he can't simply bomb it like he as other rebel strongholds.

Close order battle near key strategic facilities is a classic way of limiting one's enemy from utilizing superior weaponry.

Again, Assad must remain reluctant to engage ground combat troops at the unit level for the simple fear of defections.

Utilizing "specialized units" and armed Thugs can only take him so far.

He simply doesn't have enough of them to cover all the areas needed.

The airport is vital to his survival, but so are many other locations.

Here is the bottom line and it's a line his side realizes more and more with each passing day; Assad is on the defense.... not the offence!!!!

He knows it and more importantly, his supporters know it.

These are supporters who can no longer plan on the option of flying out of Damascus if the time comes.

Now, sit back and think about this major operation against Damascus airport and the surrounding area.

What does it mean to the rebels?

What does it mean to the rebels who are not fighting in Damascus?

Assad may have his air power striking other key rebel held cities, but his priority of effort is Damascus and the airport and don't listen to anyone who tries to say otherwise.

So, what is going to happen in next?

From Assad's viewpoint, only he and his handlers, Iran, know.

From the rebel's perspective, they have to make the battle for the airport a prolonged struggle as much as possible.

Everyday that facility is not " secured", becomes a clear message to his supporters it is time to abandon Assad.

Assad must win back that area quickly and simply saying the roadways are now secure is not going to be enough.

The flights into Damascus or the lack of them, is the key to the perception of who gaining the upper hand in Syria.

Yes, the world  is correct.... Assad's grip has slipped dramatically in the past two weeks, but I must warn everyone....... that is not always a good sign!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012113018357280829.html

SYRIAN REBELS  GAINS SHOULD NOT GO UNNOTICED!!!

Yesterday, I mentioned the significance of probable Surface to Air Weapons finally showing up in the hands of the rebels.

Today's stories of assaults near the International Airport in Damascus could signal changes in the conflict every bit as dramatic as SAM operations.

For months the rebels have realized how vital the international airport is to Assad and his regime.

His re-supply from Iran and Russia flow through that airfield and everyone knows it.

Denying Assad the ability to not only receive vital support through the airport, but the psychological damage of his supporters knowing the airfield is now too dangerous to utilize is a devastating event.

It is now wonder Assad's forces are mounting an all out assault on the forces in and around Damascus.

He simply cannot survive the physical or psychological loss of Damascus International Airport.

Here is the telling issue.

There is no way that airport was not heavily guarded.

If it was not the most protected site in Syria, it has to be one of the top three.

Assad and his family... his WMD... and the airport in Damascus.

A true assault to capture or damage the facility and not just harass it's operations is an ominous sign for Assad.

There is one true escape route for his supporters and that is the airport.

If that option is taken away or the perception it is about to go away, his most loyal backers, the Sunni business class, are probably about to leave.

If flights are disrupted and it sounds as if they are, then panic is setting in as I type this.

The interesting thing about conflict is the fact that defeat often comes suddenly.

It is not a given that this conflict will gradually swing the way of the resistance.

It is very likely that the collapse of the Syrian government could come suddenly and that is what really scares the UN and the rest of the region.

In the course of just two days, Assad has lost his air superiority and he may be losing his logistical and physiological "lifeline"... Damascus International.

Do not be surprised if one or two things are about to happen.

Assad could lash out at the rebels like he has not done so in the past.

Even more disturbingly... Assad's regime could collapse in  a state of panic.

I remember the fall of Saigon!

We could see such an event again...

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=99411

GAME CHANGER???

For months the speculation of the Syrian Rebels having or being close to

having SAM capabilities has batted around.

What it would mean to the conflict if this became true was the baseline of

the discussion.

If this open source video is true, and I would say it is, then I think we

all have our answer.

What does this mean to Assad and the Syrian military?

It means his ability to control the airspace over the targeted areas is

virtually gone.

He must now go higher with his jets and that means they will hit everything

but their targets...

The attack helicopters... well... they can't get high enough to escape.. I

wonder how that will impact pilot dedication.

There was yet another "rumor" today of a Syrian Fighter being shot down and

the pilots being captured.

Assad has deliberately kept his ground forces from door to door operations

for months now and the reason is simple.

He can't trust them!

Defections of a Sunni ground army can only be controlled by limiting where

they are used.

He has fought this conflict with artillery and airpower and left his ground

forces to defend vital locations or mop up after a heavy air and artillery

campaign.

It's the reason the rebels have targeted his airfields virtually nonstop.

The depletion of his helicopter inventory, besides the ones that are

probably unable to fly due to maintenance, is going to force him to change

his game plan.

The threat to inbound aircraft at Damascus International Airport is going to

make his "supporters" think twice.

Can Iran or Russia afford to show a large transporter burning on the ground

near Damascus International?

Can the rest of the world afford this?

If these weapons are finally in the hands of the rebels, whoever that is,

then Assad is in real....real... trouble and that means he is more desperate

than ever!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=25ewguUTEAM

THE ARAFAT MYSTERY PART III.

Twice since this story came alive I have commented on where it might head and why it may have come to the forefront. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/arafat.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/arafat-draw-response.html

So, why would I talk about this yet again?

Simple, this stories drama may be taking on a new twist.

Was Arafat murdered?

Perhaps.

By whom?

Don't count out his Palestinian rivals / Hamas.

The Israelis?

Perhaps; wouldn't be the first time they went to such lengths.

If you've watched the news in the past two days, it's easy to see what most Arabs are waiting for; the confirmation that he was murdered.

It could be a classic example of, don't let the facts get in the way of a good opinion.

If the French "experts" don't find what his ex wife hopes they will find, then what?

Is it a cover up by the French?

If they do find he had an unexplainable level of a toxin in his body, then what?

Who needs this story to ignite massive protest?

Who needs the distraction?

Iran?

They are on the list, but there are others.

Assad?

He would like anything to distract the region right about now, given Gaza fizzled out on him.

Hamas?

I don't think so, although they would play to the anger side of the story especially if it lead to a West Bank in turmoil; if you didn't notice... Gaza took it on the chin again and the West Bank didn't even lose power for the Soccer matches.

What has changed and who might be able to leverage the story sooner rather than a few months?

Yep... Mursi...

His miscalculation, and I'm still not sold it was one, on his new "decrees" could lead to far more trouble than he anticipated.

You see, I'm not so sure the Egyptian Military will not take this golden opportunity to make one last move on the MB before it really is too late.

The rest of the world needs this story of Arafat's death to take as long to unfold as the United Nations Special Tribunal Lebanon investigation..... 6 years and counting.

Could a report stating Arafat was murdered create a crisis in the region?

I don't see how it wouldn't.

This story is not going to go away.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DOUBLE TALK FROM THE PHARAOH

So, Mr Mursi assures the Egyptian judges his " decree" will only deal with " sovereign matters" designed to protect institutions.

Here is my, and others I am sure, question; who determines the definition of " Sovereign matters"?

I would be willing to be it will be Mr Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood... you know.. the one he no longer has ties to!!!!!

 Ok, we have to wonder; what is the next decree going to be over?

If Mr Mursi decides  the Camp David treaty with Israel is an issue that must be "reviewed" after  Abbas' trip to the United Nations will that constitute a matter of " sovereign matters"?

You see, when  you are the one that makes the rules, you get to determine when the rules apply.

 As of today, Mr Mursi holds the Executive, Legislative and Judicial powers of Egypt.

Now, I've heard about all I can stand from the world of Academia about how the "West" must understand there are different "versions" of Democracy.

I don't care how many tea parties you attend, how many times you are " published" or what Honorary Degree you may hold, what is taking place in Egypt is NOT a Democratic process.

What is even more disturbing, is the almost total lack of outrage from the West on what Mr Mursi is pulling off.

If someone is counting on the theory of, "give a person enough rope and they will hang themselves", then I wonder how long they will wait before they realized Mr Mursi make not snap his neck?

Did he execute a political / strategic blunder with his decree?

I would say he did not.

His timing; within 48hrs of being hailed as the champion of the Gaza cease fire, was no accident.

Remember what I have always said about the MB.

They are like a slow moving constrictor snake.

Don't create a lot of attention ... stay off the radar but never stop moving towards the final outcome.... a victim that can no longer resist.

What is Mr Mursi's  next move///// decree???

We shall see, but my bet is it will have to do with Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

It's a great distracter for not only the people of Egypt, but for the region as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20500125