ISRAEL PREPARES FOR IRAN CONFLICT..... AGAIN????

Ok, this story has run perhaps a dozen times in the past ten years and each time it's a modern day version of The Boy Who Cried Wolf!

The problem with that metaphor is the actual ending of the old folk story..

The Wolf really did show up!!!!

Over the past twelve months, I have posted two or three times on the topic of what to look for if Israel was really preparing for a conflict with Iran.

Every time I've addressed this subject, I've ended the conversation with the premise Israel knows all too well what actions may tip it's hand.

Knowing this, the art of cloaking a nation's intentions can become very...very.. complicated.

I won't go back into the discussion of the tactics of " no notice vs scaled vs unlimited options, but it is important to readdress the issue of what option is the most logical.

Simply put, small and fast is easier to conceal from your enemies than large and complex.

Something else has changed since the last time I addressed this issue and it's an extreamly important issue.

Iran's paranoia!!!!!

If we were to go back to the last time the rumor of a pending attack by Israel was published, apx eight months ago, we would have found an Iran that was much more convinced that even was some distance away yet.

The primary reason this logic prevailed at that time was Iran's belief The Israeli government would not move without the support of the US.

It's my opinion, the most drastic change in the theory of pending war between Iran and Israel is Iran's growing belief Israel will attack without the US.

On top of this dire change, I would add the theory Iran may actually be contemplating provoking this conflict to distract the Syrian, Lebanese events.

Short answer... Iran may actually want the conflict to take place.....

The foiled and honestly poorly executed Hezbollah / Qod / operations of a few months ago was a dangerous message that many missed.

I said it then and I will say it again... I believe Iran attempted to goat Israel into attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and that attempt failed.

So, are we truly closer to a conflict between Iran and Israel?

Yes.. I believe we are..

How close???

Someone is going to have to let Benjamin Netanyahu answer that question.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

NOW IT'S ASSAD'S TURN TO "WARN" SOMEONE!

Last night I talked about Turkey's warning to Iran, indirectly, based on concerns over Lebanon and Syria.

Today, it was Assad's turn to warn Lebanon and the GCC and maybe even Turkey.

" If you sow chaos in Syria,  you may be infected by it yourself"!

Assad's correlation of the Arab Spring to someone "Sowing chaos" is a clever way of him creating doubt amongst those in the "other" countries who may worry about their own future.

If it can happen to Syia, it can happen to you!... That is Assad's message.

Some have even interpreted this speech as Assad treating  to send the  same "chaos" to his enemies.

The underling message here may be Iran's actions against the GCC states such as Bahrain.

I am also convinced this is also Assad's way of saying he is willing to continue and most likely increase his actions in his own country.

He played this message at an ideal time.. .on Russian TV.. although his real audience was not the Russian people, but the people of the Gulf Coast.

So, in the past few days, we have witnessed the Saudi's attempt the annexation of Bahrain, something that was not very well thought out and poorly exicuted.

We have seen Turkey warn Iran over it's actions in the region.

Now, we have seen Assad warn the Arab States.

All in all... a lot is taking place at an ever increasing pace and it will become more and more difficult to keep making sense of it all.

In the meantime, AQI will plot the next set of dramatic bombing in Syria. 

Yes... it's is only going to get worse....

If I were the UN Observers, I would be very careful where I go and what road I drive on.

AQI, now in Syria, would love to blow them up and spin the events in Syria right through the roof.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90098

TURKEY'S WARNING ...... TO IRAN!!!

The events of Lebanon over the past few days have not gone unnoticed by Erdogan and Turkey.

His statement of, " whoever views these events through a sectarian window, through an ethnic or ideological window, and whoever adopts an according attitude, is committing a big wrong", is a message to Iran and Hezbollah!

He may have been addressing the issues in Syria, but it's Lebanon that has Erdogan more worried than ever. 

The ability to "control" events in Syria are still somewhat possible although highly unlikely.

What makes the whole problem completely uncontrollable and in reality a catastrophe for the region is violence based on sectarian lines in Lebanon.

What the Shi'ites will find disturbing about this speech is his call for the Shia to be "understanding and compassionate".

If Erdogan sounded one sided in his lecture that's only because he was.

Did we forget he is Sunni?????

The twin bombings in the Syrian capital may have been to focus of his discussion, but the events in Lebanon and the repercussions they could have are giving him a real sense of urgency.

I'm also convinced he knows all too well Iran is probably going to turn up the heat in Bahrain and the Gulf Coast States as much as possible as they try to counter the events in Syria and now Lebanon.

Erdogan may do well to make real peace with the Turkish military and do so soon.

He may need them sooner than he thinks.

It's a hard future when you are pushing Generals into jail cells and then suddenly asked their loyal follower to defend the Turkish leadership.

Sometimes timing is everything!!!

LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN  REACTION.

The news from Lebanon, as predicted, is getting more and more dire!

For months I've commented on the grave consequences for the region if Lebanon where to slide into the Syrian madness.

It now appears that event may be on the verge of taking place.

I could comment about the consequences for nations such as Israel, Turkey ect.. ect.. but it is far more important to readdress the primary issue resulting from these events.

Iran!!!

Again and again I have sounded the alarm about Iran not tolerating the loss of it's proxy

 front for war with Israel.

Miqati is very close to decision time.

Does he stick with the sinking ship named Assad and Hezbollah  or does he begin to move Lebanon away from the madness?

The rumors Iran is now issuing orders to Lebanese Military Commanders are most likely true, and it would be nothing new!!!

He knows Tripoli has always been the canary in the cage for pending trouble in Lebanon and that canary is very sick!!!

So, just how bad is this for the region?

Simple.... it's the one thing nobody wanted to have happen and yet, they all believe it's about to.

So... what does Iran do?

To understand that potential answer, just read the attached story about the GCC.

Saudi understands all to well what Iran will do to attempt to counter the loss of Syria and now, unbelievably, Lebanon..

The GCC understands as well.

Bahrain will become target number one!!!

It's been in the spotlight from time to time, but other more pressing issues have overtaken the media every time.

Early last year, when Iran tried to get Bahrain to become the spotlight issue.... to take pressure off of Assad, Saudi jumped in and made their commitment known to the whole world.

Before Iran could develop the turmoil needed in Bahrain, Syria caught fire and refocused Iranian leadership.

Initially, the GCC set out to shore up their kingdoms fearing the wave of the Arab Spring!

Soon, it became clear to them, the proxy counter by Iran would be along the Gulf States.

Ok.. let's keep this simple!

Lebanon is closer to real violence than at anytime in the past ten years. even worse than 2005 assignations.. .does anyone even remember that event or the current STL issue?

Iran is watching it's worst nightmare come true... the loss of Syria.. the loss of Hamas.. the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah.

Make no mistake... Hezbollah will redirect all of it's energy to address issues in Lebanon and by doing so, Iran dictatorial relationship will be in jeopardy.

The region is about to become a great deal more dangerous.

Keep you eyes on Lebanon!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89972

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8920

THE EXCHANGE OF LETTERS... WHY THE WASTE OF TIME?

Absolutely no one expect this "stunt", by both sides, to accomplish anything.

Positioning one's self to counter the argument, "you are not trying", was the only real goal of this " exchange".

Netanyahu and Abbas know all too well the Administration in the US is focused on November and simply not interested in creating any additional work such as restarting the Quartet with no chance of a progress.

Europe is in the early stages of truly crisis that they can't buy their way out of this time.

The Arab states, GCC, are simply too nervous over Iran and the struggle for he Gulf region to answer the phone calls from Abbas.

Russia and China simply have nothing to gain by addressing the issue.

So..... it looks as if nothing is going to change soon right????

Maybe!!!

If Israel is actually going to take itself into a conflict with Iran, it would be wise to neutralize, to the extent possible, the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Solving this issue is impossible in the short term, but Israel could start the Information Operations / IO / now to show the world there maybe real light at the end of the tunnel.

That is why the issue of Settlements right now would be a good start to selling this theme.

It's vital to Israel that Iran not be allowed to hold the "high ground" of telling the Arab world they will fight for Palestinian statehood.

Take away the image   of Iran being the "liberators" of the Arabs / Palestinians.. something none of the Arabs believe.. and they will stand alone!

Simply put... If Israel is going to 'deal' with Iran, they must be ready to deal with the statehood issue...and thus take away Iran's link to Arab causes...

If there is one thing the Arabs understand its.... Iran is no Arab... at least not yet!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=269756

NASRALLAH'S ANSWER TO HANIYEH'S ANNOUNCEMENT.

If you think Nasrallah's statement today was unrelated to Narallah's announcement, think again.

If there was one message Iran needed to counter and counter quickly, it was one based on their options growing smaller; such as losing Hamas as a Proxy weapon.

I would be willing to bet  the phone calls from Iran came soon after Haniyeh's comments and they went something like this, " we need you to make a statement about Israel and we need you to make it today"!!!!

There are no coincidences in the Middle East.

So, not only did Nasrallah try to counter the Haniyeh's statement, he tossed in what he probably perceives as a viable threat..... Missile attacks like Israel has never seen before.

Could they do it, perhaps.. for the first day or two... after that Hezbollah and their bases in Lebanon would become smoldering holes in the earth and the heavens would be filled with Martyrs.

A threat such as the one Nasrallah placed today is not new, what could become new is the response Israel may have in the next Hezbollah conflict.

In the end this well timed statement may have made Hezbollah's masters in Iran happy, but to the people of Lebanon, it could very well end up being just another example of why Lebanon needs to purge Hezbollah sooner rather than later.

Nasrallah's warrior mentality, as he sits in his air-conditioned bunker, plays to the Lebanese people just as much as it does to the Iranians.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=269614

HANIYEH'S STATEMENT... WHAT DOES IT MEAN? AGAIN!!

For months, many have talked about the split between Hamas and Iran based upon the resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood; the foundation of Hamas.

Many have pontificated over the issue of Hamas and Fatah failure to "unite".. whatever that means in the Middle East.

It's been clear for sometime now that Hamas was pulling back into the MB camp and the tensions that has created even inside Hamas.

So, if none of this is new information, then why the announcement by Haniyeh now?

My opinion is simple.. as always!

Haniyeh sees the time growing short for Iran and Israel, with conflict not far behind.

He must make every effort, one that will probably be futile, to convince Israel they will not support Iran in a war and thus hopefully avoid the guaranteed destruction of his forces.

The short answer.... Haniyeh thinks Israel is about to act and he is trying to save Hamas!

Did he get the orders from the MB to send this message to the world?

Probably.

I will tell you this, Iran was the first nation to hear  the message  given they already knew it was coming.

As for the continued divide between Hamas and Fatah.. .the MB are and will continue to be hard pressed to solve  this issue.

As I have said in the past, part of this issue is based on pure profit! 

Owning the tunnel system into Gaza is a cash cow for Hamas and sharing the funds and decisions is not something local leadership is willing to do.

Unity between Hamas and Fatah will come with time and it will come when the MB has other issues more pressing off the table.

Here is what everyone needs to  take away from these two statements.

It's one thing for a talking head who is out to make money on book signing circuit to say conflict is imminent.

When someone like the leader of Hamas makes it a point to tell the world they will not support Iran in a conflict, it's time to get very worried.

If Haniyeh believes this, than so does the MB and that is even more ominous.

Here is Haniyeh's and Hamas  biggest obstacle...... Does Israel believe him?

My answer..... How can Israel risk believing him... and he knows it...

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=269509

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=260716