Thursday, May 17, 2012




















ISRAEL PREPARES FOR IRAN CONFLICT..... AGAIN????

Ok, this story has run perhaps a dozen times in the past ten years and each time it's a modern day version of The Boy Who Cried Wolf!

The problem with that metaphor is the actual ending of the old folk story..

The Wolf really did show up!!!!

Over the past twelve months, I have posted two or three times on the topic of what to look for if Israel was really preparing for a conflict with Iran.

Every time I've addressed this subject, I've ended the conversation with the premise Israel knows all too well what actions may tip it's hand.

Knowing this, the art of cloaking a nation's intentions can become very...very.. complicated.

I won't go back into the discussion of the tactics of " no notice vs scaled vs unlimited options, but it is important to readdress the issue of what option is the most logical.

Simply put, small and fast is easier to conceal from your enemies than large and complex.

Something else has changed since the last time I addressed this issue and it's an extreamly important issue.

Iran's paranoia!!!!!

If we were to go back to the last time the rumor of a pending attack by Israel was published, apx eight months ago, we would have found an Iran that was much more convinced that even was some distance away yet.

The primary reason this logic prevailed at that time was Iran's belief The Israeli government would not move without the support of the US.

It's my opinion, the most drastic change in the theory of pending war between Iran and Israel is Iran's growing belief Israel will attack without the US.

On top of this dire change, I would add the theory Iran may actually be contemplating provoking this conflict to distract the Syrian, Lebanese events.

Short answer... Iran may actually want the conflict to take place.....

The foiled and honestly poorly executed Hezbollah / Qod / operations of a few months ago was a dangerous message that many missed.

I said it then and I will say it again... I believe Iran attempted to goat Israel into attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and that attempt failed.

So, are we truly closer to a conflict between Iran and Israel?

Yes.. I believe we are..

How close???

Someone is going to have to let Benjamin Netanyahu answer that question.

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