DOES THE RESISTANCE FALL BACK INTO THE SINAI?

Two weeks ago, I stated that Sisi would make a more telling move on his enemies in the Sinai ether just prior to making a move on the Muslim Brotherhood or at the same time.

Actions in the Sinai had been taking place for months, but on a very limited scale.

Also, as I commented earlier, the Muslim Brotherhood and other more radical groups had been predicting Sisi's move on the Morsi government for months.

It's not news, or should I say, it shouldn't be news, Sisi's enemies began planning disruption operations with the Sinai as it's base months ago; perhaps even longer.

As the streets of Egypt's major cities began to perhaps calm down, the question becomes, does the new resistance makes it's stand in the Sinai?

My bet is this is exactly what Sisi and his generals anticipated and one only need look at the force placed in that region to come to this conclusion.

Ok, so the question becomes?

How in the world did 24 Policemen get caught so unprepared?

A convoy that must have been virtually unprotected?

How could that happen in an area that everyone predicted would be the center  of violence?

It's right about here the conspiracy theorist usually pop onto the scene.

Where these Cops set up?

Did someone need them slaughtered to keep the public on the side of the Sisi government?

As outrageous as that might sound in the West, it's never...ever out of the question in the Middle East!

Who should have escorted this convoy of Policemen going on leave?

Who really controls the area?

The Egyptian Military you might say...... you would be correct!!!!!

I'm I siding with the conspiracy crowd?

Not yet, but I must admit, it's a strange set up for an area soaked in danger.

I have one last comment on this topic before I move on.

How upset would Sisi have been if the 24 dead were Egyptian Military?

THE SINAI:

Ok, this is a topic that could easily occupy volumes of discussions on Egyptian operations.

Just how important is the Sinai?

All you have to do is ask the IDF.

How difficult can it become for Egypt to truly secure the Sinai?

Short answer... they can't!!!

So, will they need help?

You guessed it...........they already do!

Who's help you ask?

Some continue to speculate on the IDF and why not?

Tagging Sisi to the IDF will be a major goal of the MB and other radical groups in the area.

Holding the streets of Egypt's major cities, some are going to be harder than others, is a current mission that requires a great deal of energy and is ripe for failure.

The problem is, the Sinai is the Mother Ship of the future "resistance".

Sisi knows this and he also knows he must walk a razor then line of being seen working near or God forbid with the IDF.

His enemies new and old know this as well.

Paint a picture of Sisi and Israel working together and that perception could become Sisi's undoing.

So, operations in the Sinai are going to be more than delicate; so much so that a reluctance to strike too well may rule the mission.

Yes, the Sinai is key to Egypt's future and it's critical to Sisi!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23751954

EGYPT AND THE TSAR... EXPLAINED

Yesterday, I commented the situation in Egypt could prove yet another golden opportunity for the Tsar.

Let me attempt to explain just what I was insinuating with that comment.

I'll start by stating with a few simple facts.

First off,  it's common knowledge Putin overall objective is to reestablish Russia to a position of worldly leadership.

Secondly, we all should realize one major objective in reaching his overall goal is to gain as much influence in the Middle East as possible, or should I say regain?

The Middle East is ruled by the oil industry and the major economic engine of the Russian rebuild is fuel!

For over two years now, as Egypt has struggled to normalize it's day to day status in the world, Putin has watched the West struggle even more than Egyptian leadership over the concept of how to "deal with" Egypt's problems.

In short, the Tsar heard and continues to hear opportunity knocking and he is not one to let such event simply pass him by.

Ok, let's jump onto another subject that will help me prove my primary point.

Everyone is talking about pulling the funding for the Egyptian Military and the good Lord knows the US sees this topic turning into a political football.

One argument is based on the premises that the Egyptian Military needs the US military aid to keep it's ability to function.

Is that a valid argument?

The answer is yes, but only if the Egyptian military is not offered other options.

Could the Tsar step in and offer a military conversion to the Egyptian Military?

Yes, but such a huge undertaking would take time as in several years.

How would the interim period of the conversion be covered?

Enter the Saudis!!!

Would we stop military sales to Saudi if we knew they were sending it to Egypt to cover their needs while the Tsar retools them?

My hunch is that would be a far more emotional decision than cutting off Egypt.

Nothing like providing the Tsar yet another customer as he is busy filling the orders of the first one.

Side note: What is the second primary source of retooling the Russian Empire..... yep.. Military sales!!!!

And who would pay for the expensive cost of this conversion?

Back to the Saudi answer!

It should become very clear just how vital the Middle East is to the Tsar and the rebuilt Russian Empire.

So, if the course of action for the West is to abandon the Egyptian Military, then what is the true cost of doing so?

As is always the case, the Middle East is a Chest Board level event and the West cannot come to the table ready to play Checkers!

Oh.. By the way... has anyone really figured out why Putin is so eager to have the conflict in Syria continue for at least another year?

If not... here is my hint and I will talk about it on Friday.....

Think 2014....

Think Winter of 2014.....

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/08/saudi-arabia-washington-disagree-threats-counter-revolution.html

SISI TAKES ACTION...NOW WHAT? ENTER THE TSAR!!!

Well, here comes the question that was bound to be asked.

Now what?

The pro Morsi supporters officially have their desired title, " Victim"!

How did it happen?

Who fired the fist rounds?

Does it really matter now?

The art of pointing fingers is somewhat irrelevant at this point in time.

Another event that took place today  that caused a great deal of conversation was the departure of  Vice President ElBaradei!

Now, most of us have been convinced from day one of Sisi's move on Morsi that ElBaradei was a puppet on a string.

So, does it really matter ElBaradei left Sisi's camp today?

Look at this question from the perspective of Sisi.

Who are the anti Morsi supporters really supportive of?

ElBaradei?

Perhaps!

 But not to the level that Sisi actually needed to factor in his support to the planning process.

Does it damage the Sisi govenment that ElBaradei left?

Again, that depends on how to weigh his support.

From the perspective of Turkey and it's dictator "Egodan", it does supply political ammunition as he fights to save the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

Does Sisi really care what Turkey's own Islamic Dictator says about today's actions in Egypt?

Nope!

Does Sis really care what the West has to  say about his actions?

Perhaps a bit more than Egodan's comments, but even then the issue doesn't seem to have enough weight to alter Sisi's actions.

Don't forget Sisi has a "Sugar Daddy / Daddies" in the GCC... / Saudi....

" You do what you need to do to trample this Islamic camouflaged Arab Socialist movement called the Muslim Brotherhood and we will take care of your bills"!

That might seem a little oversimplified, but the reality is, that is exactly what the Monarchies of the GCC are doing.

Ok, let's get back to the original question.....     ...... Now what?

Egypt is in a full blown, predicted crisis and very few if any outsiders have any inclination to get involved beyond the use of words and speeches!

So, let's ask the question in a different way.

Who does have the gumption to get involved or even take advantage of this predicted crisis?

If you guessed the Tsar.... you get a star!!!!

Would Putin take advantage of this crisis?

Does a Wild Bear sh.... ..well... you know where I'm going with this one!!!

Just about every world leader is going to feel compelled to give some grandiose statements in the next day or so... .that is the ones that have not already done so.

What I will watch for is the words of the Tsar and more importantly, the actions of Master of manipulation.

If Egypt is going to slip into an Algerian type of crisis, there is not much others are willing or able to do to stop it.

What the Tsar will set out to accomplish is to take advantage of the coming events in Egypt.

I would be willing to bet the meeting between the Saudi's and the Russians last week discussed this very event and what was agreed to is fascinating to contemplate.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Aug-15/227442-egypt-on-brink-after-bloody-wednesday.ashx#axzz2bzVV3ZWf

EGYPT.. CLASHES ERUPT.... BIG SURPRISE!!!!

Let's cover two issues today with one being a follow up on yesterday's comments and the other being, what I consider a far more interesting twist to the events in Egypt.

First the follow up issue:

Yesterday I spoke to the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood and the pro Morsi followers needing to stay in the position of " victim" and how the pro Sisi government, at least part of it, may have figured out how to strip that title away from the Morsi camp.

Well, if yhou can't get the government to move on the camps, then why not press the issue; why not march towards those who you need desperately to abuse you?

In my opinion, that is exactly what took place today.

The problem was, at least for now, it doesn't seem the Sisi government took the bait!

As a matter of fact, most of the "victims" were actually the ones caught on video tossing rocks at the government forces.

So, the plan was probably to instigate a violent event and thus secure your title of "victim".

With only apx ten "victims" reportedly hurt in the incident, I would be willing to say the plan failed!!!

Now what?

What is the next move?

If you are the pro Morsi camp, you probably come to  the conclusion you need to turn up the heat.

If you are  the pro Sisi camp, you most likely realized the tactic you responded with today worked.

Will the tactic of the pro Sisi camp work again; even if the Morsi camp pushes the issue harder?

Does the pro Sisi camp wait until the "victims" push too hard, do something too violent and then use that event to bring the pain on the camps?

That would be my bet and we will have to see if I'm right.

Ok, on to the next topic:    The use of Drones!!!

I must admit, when I first heard of this, I instinctively believed it was a Law Enforcement operation designed to give them better, real time, situational awareness of what was taking place inside the camps.

Now, it's a blast of the obvious to admit the pro Sisi government has "insiders" tucked away in the protest and those members are feeding information at all times.

But,  the risk of discovery is there and the price that would be paid for being discovered would most likely be in blood!

Having said that, would the pro Sisi camp use aerial assets, to include drones?

Yep!

Here is the interesting part.

The story attached is about the utilization of drones by the pro Morsi camp!

Now, the story goes they are utilized to create a "message" of how much support there is for the pro Morsi camp.

Getting the word out is a vital concept for the pro Morsi camp and the idea that some of them have figure out how to use drones to do that is simply brilliant.

As I watched this story, I couldn't help but wonder, "what if they used their drones to do more than shape the message"?

 A drone at the altitude shown in the video can show you, at a tactical level, a great deal more than how many supporters you have.

Where are the government forces?

Where are they moving?

What equipment do they have just out of site?

Again, all these things can be captured by well placed members of the cause, but again the danger lies with the risk of being caught.

Here is my next bet.

If the pro Sisi government forces begin to truly make a move on the crowd, the internet connection in the area and the radio frequencies these "toys" drones work off of, will come down first.

Some have talked about how the forces may move on the pro Morsi camp and how they may cut off water, electricity and so on.

You can add two more to the growing list; Internet connectivity and radio frequencies.

Drones in a protest????

Now there is a twist I would be willing to be expands far beyond Egypt, if it has not already done so.

Just imagine drones flying over an event / demonstration in the US?

What an interesting turn of events this has become!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/2013813123647742511.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2013/08/20138133950103343.html

IS EGYPT'S INTERIM GOVERNMENT REALLY IN "DEADLOCK"?

I've not commented on the events in Egypt for several days for one simple reason, nobody believed Sisi's government, and that is just what Egypt has right now, was going to  move on it's own people until after the Eid al-Fitr.

Well, the Holiday is over and nothing took place, yet!

Why?

As this article mentions, some are growing more and more convinced the "unity" of the anti Morsi camp is falling apart.

Is that really what is taking place?

I will tell you, that is precisely how the Muslim Brotherhood is attempting to paint the picture.

Let's assume for a minute the division in the anti Morsi camp is a growing event that is now out in the open.

What does it mean to the course of Egypt?

If you answered with the theory of Egypt could now become even more dangerous, you would be correct!

If the non military members of the anti Morsi camp are reluctant to spill the blood of the protesters, then it will become nearly impossible for Sisi to continue to present a unified front and when that happens the events could and will most likely will swing towards reactionary violence not controlled  by the Sisi government.

You see, the Morsi supporters are no different than the Sisi supporters.

Days and weeks on end of stagnation will not bring them any closer to their goal; ether side.

The radical elements of the MB know they must continue to be cast in the part of the "victim" and sitting around listening to the same old worn out lectures for weeks on end will not create that desired outcome.

Both sites are already considered by many as nothing but a drain on the majority of Egyptians who are struggling to get back to some level of a normal life!

The status of "victim" is a must for the MB camp and without that status their objective may just fall apart.

Ironic when you consider that just two weeks ago all the talk centered around the Sisi government couldn't count on continued support if the protest sites were allowed to be seen on international news day after day....week after week....

So, both sides have now had to deal with the consequences of inaction!

Here is where the story really gets complex.

If the Sisi government decides the price of crushing the camps is too great and the world wide repercussions are too risky, then the decision may have been made to delay!

On the other hand; if the MB / Morsi camp has come to realize the lack of violence will eventfully weaken their stance, then perhaps they must provide the violence?

The question then becomes what type of violence and against whom?

Does the pro Morsi camp attack the pro Sisi organizations around the camps?

Does the pro Morsi camp inflict violence on their own supporters to give the perception the Sisi government has moved to violence?

Does the Sisi government instigate an event that shows it's followers as the victims?

Has anything like anyone of these incidents every taken place in the Middle East?

Now; there is a silly question!!!

So, I ask again; what happens next?

Perhaps the more important question becomes, " who did what"?

A wise US President once said, "Trust, but verify"!!!

The verification process!!!! How will that work?

If Sisi decides to move on the camps and the non military side of his camp does not agree, then the future of Egypt is really in doubt!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/mena/egypt-deadlocked-over-crackdown-on-pro-morsi-camps

EGYPT.. .WHEN WILL THE NEXT MOVE TAKE PLACE?

The common theory as  to why Sisi has not moved on the Morsi supporters seem to be very consistent.

The latest round of diplomatic initiatives created an un-opportunistic time to shed blood on the streets of Egypt's major cities.

As of today, the majority of the "group think" is now pointing to day after Eid al-Fitr.

Here is the problem, that is most likely exactly when the Morsi camp is expecting the situation to change.

I.E.... There will be no surprise, not even to the media hungry to cover the anticipated carnage.

I'm not sure there is anyone left who is wondering if the blood will flow in Egypt.

I'm even surer there is probably no one left who can stop it.

What does the day after it starts look like?

That is the million dollar question!

Does it last a day..... a week.... a year?

Does Egypt turn into Syria?

Does Tunisia follow soon after that?

Does the whole region fall into a crisis?

Assad's plans for Aleppo will not execute under the cover of the pending crisis in Egypt.

As a matter of fact, the ball may just swing in the other direction as Egypt spins into madness.

Here is what I would bet on.

For all the talk of the pending AQAP actions somewhere in the world at some point it time, against some target, I would keep a close eye on Egypt and the volume of violence it could produce.

AQAP may attack somewhere, but Egypt's crisis is going to happen and what it leads to could easly take the world's eye of the AQAP  all together.

And if I was them, that is exactly when I would strike!!!!

The joyful meals and celebrations of Eid al-Fitr may be the last peaceful days for most of the region and Egypt / Sisi holds the keys!!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/201387191527494149.html

HAMAS.. HAT IN HAND ...BACK TO THE PERSIAN?

As complicated as the Palestinian leadership question can be, is it possible Hamas, A Sunni organization, could go back to the Persians for support?

Remember, Hamas was not truly excommunicated from Syria / Damascus, and it wasn't told to vacate Tehran.

I mentioned before the simple fact that Hamas was called home by the Muslim Brotherhood and the majority of the Hamas leadership, not all of it, believed that move to be the right thing to do.

It's also true the events in Egypt have severely damaged Hamas' ability to count on any level of support from the MB.

Abbas's action with the US and Israel may not lead to anything of sustenance, but is anyone really convinced that is Abbas goal to begin with?

You see, as is always the case in the Middle East, perception is king and the perception right now is Abbas is trying harder that Hamas to actually achieve something for the Palestinian people, while Hamas scrambles to find a bill payer and to keep radicals inside Gaza from bringing the wrath of the Egyptian Military not to mention the IDF, down on the heads of the poor people who live in Gaza. 

Simply put, Abbas is and Fatah are helping drive a stake into the heart of Hamas and many are sitting back enjoying the show!

Enter..... the Persians!!!!

Like a classic scene right out of a Mafa movie, the Persians have their hands extended to the poor, desperate leadership of Hamas, at least part of Hamas' leadership.

And just like any Mafia deal, the price Hamas must pay offered by the Persians, with a smile, is more than Hamas can afford.

Support for Assad and the Hezbollah fighters in Syria?

Is that the price they must pay..... is that the "deal"?

That is the rumor and the rumor is a strong one.

Does anyone expect Hamas' already fractured leadership to universally agree to this?

What will the International Muslim Brotherhood say?

At what price does Hamas sign the contract?

Oh ya...... and does anyone really expect the Persians to live up to their end?

Have you ever seen how a Mafia deal ends?

With each passing day, the options and even the future of Hamas grows dimmer and dimmer!!!

Can anyone offer the Hamas leaders a better deal than what the Persians are going to demand?

Enter the Ottomans!!!

Have you ever pealed an onion?

That is the Middle East right now.

The is no core... there is no center.....there are just layers of "issues"... layers after layer...

http://www.debka.com/article/23158/Tehran-For-restored-Iranian-aid-Hamas-must-go-back-to-supporting-Bashar-Assad-