WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE?? ASSAD MAY NOT LIKE THE ANSWER!

For a solid two weeks the Syrian Rebels have made solid gains in several key areas.

It is unavoidable for the world not to have the opinion the rebels are truly gaining the upper hand and that has to be driving Assad's paranoia to the breaking point.

The battle for the area around the International Airport is still up for grabs with Assad's commanders realizing they must avoid damaging the support facilities near the airport that makes the whole place function.

The short answer is, he can't simply bomb it like he as other rebel strongholds.

Close order battle near key strategic facilities is a classic way of limiting one's enemy from utilizing superior weaponry.

Again, Assad must remain reluctant to engage ground combat troops at the unit level for the simple fear of defections.

Utilizing "specialized units" and armed Thugs can only take him so far.

He simply doesn't have enough of them to cover all the areas needed.

The airport is vital to his survival, but so are many other locations.

Here is the bottom line and it's a line his side realizes more and more with each passing day; Assad is on the defense.... not the offence!!!!

He knows it and more importantly, his supporters know it.

These are supporters who can no longer plan on the option of flying out of Damascus if the time comes.

Now, sit back and think about this major operation against Damascus airport and the surrounding area.

What does it mean to the rebels?

What does it mean to the rebels who are not fighting in Damascus?

Assad may have his air power striking other key rebel held cities, but his priority of effort is Damascus and the airport and don't listen to anyone who tries to say otherwise.

So, what is going to happen in next?

From Assad's viewpoint, only he and his handlers, Iran, know.

From the rebel's perspective, they have to make the battle for the airport a prolonged struggle as much as possible.

Everyday that facility is not " secured", becomes a clear message to his supporters it is time to abandon Assad.

Assad must win back that area quickly and simply saying the roadways are now secure is not going to be enough.

The flights into Damascus or the lack of them, is the key to the perception of who gaining the upper hand in Syria.

Yes, the world  is correct.... Assad's grip has slipped dramatically in the past two weeks, but I must warn everyone....... that is not always a good sign!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012113018357280829.html

SYRIAN REBELS  GAINS SHOULD NOT GO UNNOTICED!!!

Yesterday, I mentioned the significance of probable Surface to Air Weapons finally showing up in the hands of the rebels.

Today's stories of assaults near the International Airport in Damascus could signal changes in the conflict every bit as dramatic as SAM operations.

For months the rebels have realized how vital the international airport is to Assad and his regime.

His re-supply from Iran and Russia flow through that airfield and everyone knows it.

Denying Assad the ability to not only receive vital support through the airport, but the psychological damage of his supporters knowing the airfield is now too dangerous to utilize is a devastating event.

It is now wonder Assad's forces are mounting an all out assault on the forces in and around Damascus.

He simply cannot survive the physical or psychological loss of Damascus International Airport.

Here is the telling issue.

There is no way that airport was not heavily guarded.

If it was not the most protected site in Syria, it has to be one of the top three.

Assad and his family... his WMD... and the airport in Damascus.

A true assault to capture or damage the facility and not just harass it's operations is an ominous sign for Assad.

There is one true escape route for his supporters and that is the airport.

If that option is taken away or the perception it is about to go away, his most loyal backers, the Sunni business class, are probably about to leave.

If flights are disrupted and it sounds as if they are, then panic is setting in as I type this.

The interesting thing about conflict is the fact that defeat often comes suddenly.

It is not a given that this conflict will gradually swing the way of the resistance.

It is very likely that the collapse of the Syrian government could come suddenly and that is what really scares the UN and the rest of the region.

In the course of just two days, Assad has lost his air superiority and he may be losing his logistical and physiological "lifeline"... Damascus International.

Do not be surprised if one or two things are about to happen.

Assad could lash out at the rebels like he has not done so in the past.

Even more disturbingly... Assad's regime could collapse in  a state of panic.

I remember the fall of Saigon!

We could see such an event again...

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=99411

GAME CHANGER???

For months the speculation of the Syrian Rebels having or being close to

having SAM capabilities has batted around.

What it would mean to the conflict if this became true was the baseline of

the discussion.

If this open source video is true, and I would say it is, then I think we

all have our answer.

What does this mean to Assad and the Syrian military?

It means his ability to control the airspace over the targeted areas is

virtually gone.

He must now go higher with his jets and that means they will hit everything

but their targets...

The attack helicopters... well... they can't get high enough to escape.. I

wonder how that will impact pilot dedication.

There was yet another "rumor" today of a Syrian Fighter being shot down and

the pilots being captured.

Assad has deliberately kept his ground forces from door to door operations

for months now and the reason is simple.

He can't trust them!

Defections of a Sunni ground army can only be controlled by limiting where

they are used.

He has fought this conflict with artillery and airpower and left his ground

forces to defend vital locations or mop up after a heavy air and artillery

campaign.

It's the reason the rebels have targeted his airfields virtually nonstop.

The depletion of his helicopter inventory, besides the ones that are

probably unable to fly due to maintenance, is going to force him to change

his game plan.

The threat to inbound aircraft at Damascus International Airport is going to

make his "supporters" think twice.

Can Iran or Russia afford to show a large transporter burning on the ground

near Damascus International?

Can the rest of the world afford this?

If these weapons are finally in the hands of the rebels, whoever that is,

then Assad is in real....real... trouble and that means he is more desperate

than ever!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=25ewguUTEAM

THE ARAFAT MYSTERY PART III.

Twice since this story came alive I have commented on where it might head and why it may have come to the forefront. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/arafat.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/arafat-draw-response.html

So, why would I talk about this yet again?

Simple, this stories drama may be taking on a new twist.

Was Arafat murdered?

Perhaps.

By whom?

Don't count out his Palestinian rivals / Hamas.

The Israelis?

Perhaps; wouldn't be the first time they went to such lengths.

If you've watched the news in the past two days, it's easy to see what most Arabs are waiting for; the confirmation that he was murdered.

It could be a classic example of, don't let the facts get in the way of a good opinion.

If the French "experts" don't find what his ex wife hopes they will find, then what?

Is it a cover up by the French?

If they do find he had an unexplainable level of a toxin in his body, then what?

Who needs this story to ignite massive protest?

Who needs the distraction?

Iran?

They are on the list, but there are others.

Assad?

He would like anything to distract the region right about now, given Gaza fizzled out on him.

Hamas?

I don't think so, although they would play to the anger side of the story especially if it lead to a West Bank in turmoil; if you didn't notice... Gaza took it on the chin again and the West Bank didn't even lose power for the Soccer matches.

What has changed and who might be able to leverage the story sooner rather than a few months?

Yep... Mursi...

His miscalculation, and I'm still not sold it was one, on his new "decrees" could lead to far more trouble than he anticipated.

You see, I'm not so sure the Egyptian Military will not take this golden opportunity to make one last move on the MB before it really is too late.

The rest of the world needs this story of Arafat's death to take as long to unfold as the United Nations Special Tribunal Lebanon investigation..... 6 years and counting.

Could a report stating Arafat was murdered create a crisis in the region?

I don't see how it wouldn't.

This story is not going to go away.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DOUBLE TALK FROM THE PHARAOH

So, Mr Mursi assures the Egyptian judges his " decree" will only deal with " sovereign matters" designed to protect institutions.

Here is my, and others I am sure, question; who determines the definition of " Sovereign matters"?

I would be willing to be it will be Mr Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood... you know.. the one he no longer has ties to!!!!!

 Ok, we have to wonder; what is the next decree going to be over?

If Mr Mursi decides  the Camp David treaty with Israel is an issue that must be "reviewed" after  Abbas' trip to the United Nations will that constitute a matter of " sovereign matters"?

You see, when  you are the one that makes the rules, you get to determine when the rules apply.

 As of today, Mr Mursi holds the Executive, Legislative and Judicial powers of Egypt.

Now, I've heard about all I can stand from the world of Academia about how the "West" must understand there are different "versions" of Democracy.

I don't care how many tea parties you attend, how many times you are " published" or what Honorary Degree you may hold, what is taking place in Egypt is NOT a Democratic process.

What is even more disturbing, is the almost total lack of outrage from the West on what Mr Mursi is pulling off.

If someone is counting on the theory of, "give a person enough rope and they will hang themselves", then I wonder how long they will wait before they realized Mr Mursi make not snap his neck?

Did he execute a political / strategic blunder with his decree?

I would say he did not.

His timing; within 48hrs of being hailed as the champion of the Gaza cease fire, was no accident.

Remember what I have always said about the MB.

They are like a slow moving constrictor snake.

Don't create a lot of attention ... stay off the radar but never stop moving towards the final outcome.... a victim that can no longer resist.

What is Mr Mursi's  next move///// decree???

We shall see, but my bet is it will have to do with Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

It's a great distracter for not only the people of Egypt, but for the region as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20500125

HEZBOLLAH HAS TO WONDER.. ARE THEY NEXT?

It's a fear Hezbollah leadership has wondered about for days and the reassurances from Tehran have done little to calm their fears.

If one buys the assumption of Israel neutralizing  Hamas' longer range missile threat  for the purposes of depleting Iranian proxy weapons, a theory ripe inside the ranks of Hezbollah, then the " are we next"  paranoia may be well founded.

Yes, Iran will try to some level to resupply the losses of Hamas, but Hamas has a new more perplexing issue to deal with at the moment.

You see, as the Hamas units were taking it on the chin, Abbas was waiting to come out of the conflict smelling like a rose.

Yes, Fatah stated they to fired rockets and missiles into Israel, but it was Abbas who took the " natural ground" and watched his nemesis Hamas take a pounding.

Now, Abbas gets to walk into the UN and present himself as a professional leader.

Is Hamas a hero organization after the latest round of fighting with Israel?

Yes, but only in the eyes of the Arab youth who still glorify conflict as some higher calling.

To those who would like to actually attempt to resolve the Palestinian Statehood issue, Abbas is still the only Palestinian game in town.

Abbas is going to look "stately" this week and Hezbollah is going to sit and wonder what other actions the Israelis are getting ready to take to insure things don't go Iran's way.

Remember... Perception is reality in the Middle East and the perception to many members of Hezbollah is... they are next.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/201211261145446989.html

SOMETIMES... TIMING IS EVERYTHING TO INCLUDE A  "CLUE".

Ok, so the day after Morsi is hailed as the great peace maker in the current conflict between Hamas and Israel, he suddenly announce he is the modern day version of the Pharaoh of Egypt!

Is anyone really surprised?

Now, I know many are going to say this was simply a coincidence and the timing had nothing to do with it.

Lets look at this anther way.

What if this conflict was played by Morsi to increase his stature in the world and more importantly in the region?

Hint, that is exactly what he did.... with a lot of help from the West / US.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/20121122161830842641.html

On the topic of the cease fire.... everyone seems to be asking the same question..... what was achieved?

Tactically, the IDF removed a unknown proportion of the missiles able to reach deeper into Israel, or at least they hope they did.

At the strategic level.... little has changed and one has to question did Israel really intend on stopping at this point, or did they once again change their mind at the last minute.

True,  a ground operation would have been far more deadly than the air campaign and the increased anti armor capabilities of Hamas and PIJ would have made that op difficult for the Israeli pubic to accept.

So, who gained from this event?

Yep... that's right... The Pharaoh gained!!!

It's not the first time he has played the West masterfully, but this time around he even played the Persians...

Yes.... think about it.

Who was the only country that could get PIJ and other Islamic Jihad groups in Gaza and the Sinai to stop their attacks?

Iran.

Morsi knew he had to "deal" with Iran and he did just that, but to the expense of Tehran.

The Pharaoh comes out looking like the hero and Iran gets a proxy fighter group that is badly damaged and perhaps without resupply for months to come.

 It's clear that a very complex game of multilevel Chess has played out over the past week and from the dust and smoke emerges the 21st century Dictator of Egypt.

Well played Mr Morsi... .Well played!!!