A POTENTIAL BENCHMARK EVENT IN THE ‘TUNISIAN VIRUS / ARAB SPRING’.

                                                                                                                   

Predicting several issues about the events of May 15^th was not terribly hard to do, so watching so many key leaders and nations act  surprised by the this day is somewhat puzzling.

The fact the evening news of CBS and ABC didn’t have today’s events even in the first fifteen minutes only add to the mysterious response.

I did see a lead story on Fox News, but I must admit the comparson of today’s actions with the 1973 War is a little over the top!

I can understand the philosophy of not wanting to overplay the violence, but Arab news media will and has made today’s events center stage.

I will admit the coverage of the violence by Al Jazeera seemed somewhat subdued given their coverage of the past four months.

Again, the issue of not wishing to inflame future actions by over coverage is understandable.

My prediction is as the funerals start at sunrise on Monday, the coverage, at least by Al Jazeera and other Arabic news media networks, will increase drastically.

As for how Israel has responded to the events of May 15^th,  I would speculate the IDF  has made fast adjustments in monitoring future hotspots.

The concept they were not prepared for the Syrian fence crossing is open for debate.

Knowing the protestors crossed a known minefield without killing a single member is interesting to say the least.

It would make one believe they had ‘help’ knowing the routes through the fields.

Israel was quick, as they should have been, to accuse Syria and Iran of having their fingers the violence in an attempt to distract the public from Syrian uprisings.

The media may be slow to cover today’s actions, but the Syrian and Iranian Governments and their state controlled networks surly will not be.

So what happens next?

Funerals for the dead will be heavily attended to include Syrian and Iranian media.

Follow on protest will be based upon the emotions of the protestors.

Remember, it’s not easy getting to the areas they made contact in today.

For those that used Gaza as a protest site, they will have to contend with Hamas security forces.

I am still convinced the concept of violence in Gaza and in Israel is not what Hamas, Fatah or the MB wants, not just yet.

The PA statehood issue is the goal and risking open confrontation with Israel in May is probably not the plan.

September’s attempted vote by the UN is a key issue from the viewpoint of the PA.

The MB is concentrating on elections in Egypt and taking on a potential conflict over the PA is not on their radar; again, not just yet.

The problem with this theory is Iran.

Iran may want to continue the violence from the standpoint of distraction.

Syria is in a critical phase of their revolt.

Ether more key groups such as the Kurds totally join the movement soon, or the movement risk loosing momentum.

My prediction is Iran will use these protest like a throttle if they can.

Here is the problem for Iran.

They are trying to ‘own’ this movement, but the Palestinian Youth Movement gets a vote.

Hamas and Fatah are not the only ones worried about these ‘free radicals’.

Iran may be able to influence their response by making sure some of them are killed at key moments in time, but they simply can not pick up the phone and tell them what to do.

As a matter of fact; Iran is on the Youth Movement’s Target List and Iran knows it.

Iran is playing with fire and they know it, but they don’t have a lot of choices right now.

Israel knows they are in a very difficult phase of the ‘Tunisian Virus’ but they have been planning for several months and counter moves can be expected soon.

Hint; Lebanon is about to come into even greater play!

It’s going to be an interesting week.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS COMING WEEK.

  IRAN:

The  rift between Khamenei  and Ahmadinejad seems to be taking a new twist according to this article. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201151410558329641.html 

Several different theories as to why he would take these actions, but the most simplistic version is, “I’m not going to back up”.     

As simplistic as this may sound, if Khamenei perceives this  to be true, then things could get much worse quickly.

Remember, perception in the Middle East is more important than reality and ‘Truth’ comes in a dead last.         

Internal power struggles in Iran as it tries to deal with Syria will only cloud the thoughts of both leaders and desperation may become the common theme.

SYRIA:

The fist thing to say about Syria is Lebanon!!!

The killings of Syrian civilians as they try to escape into Lebanon and a refugee issue staked on top, will lead to Lebanon’s turmoil increasing.

The Anti / Pro Syrian factions in Lebanon are nearly at each other’s throats already day to day.

A true exodus event from Syria into Lebanon, with wounded requiring medical attention, will add fuel to the fire.

Hezbollah grows more and more concerned about their relationship with Syria.

The more they are forced to worry about violence in Lebanon, the more prone they are to making real mistakes and Lebanon can not afford any mistakes right now.

Assad has dug himself a whole he can no longer escape from.

It appears the Kurds are becoming more and more involved now and that is a key indicator that things are going to get worse in Syria.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514111351532345.html       

ISRAEL  AND THE PA:

Three important links here to give a perspective of where things might be heading.

For months now, I have said the ‘Tunisian Virus’ ultimate roadway leads to Israel.

With each passing day, Israel believes this more and more.

I stated two nights ago it doesn’t matter who fires the shot that kills a young protester.

The young man killed in the past 24 hrs is now first Official Martyr of the so called ‘third Intifada’.

I’m not sold the plan of launching an official Intifada can be achieved by just the youth movement.

The PA / Hamas and Fatah will have to back this before it can gain any traction.

But, remember my theory of both Hamas and Fatah being afraid of this new and, to them, dangerous Palestinian Youth Movement.

One death may not spark an Intifada fire, but it could!

One thing is for sure; if more people are killed on the 15^th, the ‘Third Intifada” wrapped in the “Tunsian Virus Movement” could morph into something none of them are ready to deal with.

Now, remember Iran needs something to happen and they need it soon.

Who shoots at who on the 15^th may not matter.

The attached DEBKA story points to this concern.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=220514                          

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514142534749136.html         

http://www.debka.com/article/20932/                          

BAHRAIN:

It’s worth noting Bahrain is beginning to boil back to the surface.

The Shi supported by Iran, according to the GCC, in Bahrain have done a great job depicting the double standard that seems to be taking place with the West.

For all the talk this week about Assad and his actions, the West has said little to nothing about Bahrain.

This may go unnoticed in the US, but it plays HUGE in the Middle East. 

Two months ago I talked about the West getting a better storyline ready for the ‘double standard’          accusation.

I’m not sure this is happening.

It better start quick!

PAKISTAN:

I commented the day UBL died, what a great day that was by the way, that Pakistan was in real trouble.

They were not on firm ground before this event and that ground is even less stable today.

Playing to the Chinese may make Pakistan feel good when it comes to being mad at the US, but it will not keep the Fundamentalist from attempting to topple the government.

Pakistan is in real trouble and they to may be soon be looking for a ‘distraction’ / external threat.

To put it simply, Pakistan is in real trouble.

Probably not along the lines of Syria or Iran, but given they are a nuclear power, any real trouble there can not be underestimated.

BOTTOM LINE:

May 15^th 20011 may not be the breakout day the Arabs are talking of, but it is easily the beginning of the ‘end game’ of the whole journey.

MAY 15^TH  MARCH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR REAL TROUBLE!!

Two nights ago I posted about the dangers of the 15 May March on Gaza.

It appears others such as Egypt are now starting to see just how dangerous this event could become.

Last week I posted an article about the Israeli Police Forces training for potential violent protest in May.

Everyone seems to be growing more and more worried about this event and I am one of them.

I found it interesting the MB has even called for the Palestinian Youth movement of Egypt not to march on Gaza.

The MB has a timeline and a schedule they wish to follow and an aruption of violence right now is not what they are looking for.

As I have been saying for weeks, Iran is looking for something to happen somewhere other than in Syria and Iran.

I am very concerned, now more than ever, the march on the 15^th of May will have Iranian fingers all over it.

Hamas has pulled away from Syria, or so it seems, and Hezbollah is growing more and more worried about Lebanon and the events in Syria.

So how does Iran get something to happen on the 15^th?

Simple, a few well placed gun shots and the rest will happen by itself.

This could very well be a violent and important weekend.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/12/egypt-urges-cancellation-pro-palestinian-march/

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=220361







WHAT WILL PUSH SYRIA OVER THE EDGE?

A few nights ago I spoke about a discussion I had with a friend of mine on the ability of Assad to survive the uprising?

I said I was going to have to understand a few more issues before I could accept his theory of Assad surviving.

I now know what one of the key elements is missing and how that impacts events in Syria.

The Kurds!!

I must admit, I was under the impression the Kurds were far closer to joining the uprising than they seem to be.

It is clear to me now one of Assad’s key counters to the uprising is promising the Kurds more freedoms, more specifically citizenship.

Early in this process, Assad announced Syria was going to grant citizenship to the Kurds, but it has not happened yet.

Although they have not seen this promises come true, it is clear they, collectively, don’t value getting involved, just yet.

The attached article talks to their concern the Arab Tribes made take action against them.

This speaks to the Kurds distrust of the Sunni population perhaps as much as they distrust the Bath Party and the Assad clan.

The Sunni factor:

It’s clear to me, now; the Sunni business class is the other key factor in Syria keeping the lid on the revolt.

To put this all in simple terms, the ability to achieve critical mass is simply not there yet.

As Assad refines the Iranian trick of rounding people up rather than shooting them in public, he just may find a way to survive.

So; does this mean I have changed my mind and now agree with my friend?

NOPE!!

Those that are fighting and those such as the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / understand what is missing and that they must get those factions involved to reach critical mass.

It is up to them!

How they do this may not be a pleasant issue.

Nothing gets a group committed to a cause faster than having members killed.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/20115816210895560.html

WHAT WILL 15 MAY BRING FOR ISRAEL?

15 May could very well be an important day for the Palestinians and Israel with one celebrating a new so called ‘unity government’ and the other watching nervously.

Some have visions of Cairo in their heads and some will have nightmares of Cairo in theirs.

If Iran really is concerned about Syria along with the internal struggle within Iran, then the 15^th could be a extremely important day.

I have said for over a month now Iran will need a distraction and the 15^th of May  might  be just the ticket.

Just imagine if shots are fired into the crowd of ‘peaceful protestors’?

Before Israel would ever have the chance to prove they were not responsible, the event would explode.

Israel has been getting ready for this event for several weeks now, but keeping instigators out of the area, when they do not control the area the event will take place in, is simply not possible.

The day is designed to celebrate independence and mark the beginning of change!

The change may not be what the PA is looking for, but change could very well be on the way.

The Palestinian Youth Movement may have all the good intentions in the world, but they are seen as an obstacle and a threat to Hamas and Fatah and they will not be allowed to dictate the events of that fateful day.  

Do I think the 15^th of May 2011 is going to be a historic day for the Middle East?

Yes.

More than that; 15 May could very well be a historic day for all of us who depend on the Middle East.

One gun shot… One dead body of a Palestinian Youth and everyday after will be historical.

Let’s hope I’m wrong, but my fear is I am more that right.

http://arabrevolt.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/palestines-refugee-revolution-set-for-15-march/



PAKISTAN AND CHINA, THE MESSAGE WAS HEARD!

Yousuf Raza Gilani gave a rambling speech today that manage to make a few very important points.

1.  Pakistan is going to expand its 'relationship' with China if the US keeps being so demanding, at least they see the US as being demanding.

2. Pakistan did not warn the US not to  execute another mission in Pakistan as the Western media thought.

            Their message was to India and it was not a 'message' it was a warning!

            Pakistan believes the US mission has now left the political door wide open for India to retaliate for any future actions by Terrorist groups on Indian soil.

            Mumbai is a scar the Indians are still dealing with and they know where those teams  came from.

            Pakistan realizes the ability for the rest of the world to rebuff India for future actions would be limited given the acceptance of the US mission to kill UBL.

            It concerns me how easily this message from Pakistan was misinterpreted today.

3.  Pakistan must deal with its own social demons / fundamentalist movement.

            To think the public is upset with the Pakistani Military for allowing the US to penetrate  their sovereign borders is less of an issue than the fact many of them are    furious UBL was murdered!

            The threat of Pakistan coming apart is not out of the question.

            The 'Tunisian Virus' is a real possibility and the Pak leadership knows it.

SIDE BAR:

Take a look at the attached story I found today.

If you have followed my post, you know I have said an Alliance between Saudi and Israel, even an unofficial one, is not out of the question.

A relatively quiet day in the Middle East typically means someone is plotting something somewhere!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/05/09/unholy-alliance-how-syria-is-bringing-isr





WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK!

For everyone paying attention the past few days, Tunisia and Egypt, those two that have been ‘liberated’, have been anything but peaceful.

When Christians and Muslims take to the street to kill each other, and this fight was rather one sided, then I’m not sure ‘progress’ is being made.

It is typical for a period of turmoil to take place after a revolution, but that doesn’t mean every revolution leads to better government.

Egypt is up for grabs as well as Tunisia and the MB is eyeing a larger slice of the pie with each passing day.

So, lets take a look at the rather large list of issues that need to be watched for the week of  May 8^th.

EGYPT:

The interfaith violence is not new to the streets of  Egypt, but post revolution Egypt is a dangerous environment for  this current conflict.

How the interim government, the military, deals with future violence is going to be critical to possible future problems.

As I said, the MB is looking to take expand their expectations for the pending elections, but they will continue to move forward carefully.  

SYRIA:

Two days ago I posed the question of Assad pulling through this uprising?

I don’t buy the stories that some of the groups are losing their ‘momentum’.

Assad is way too far down the road of killing his own people to suddenly stand up and sounds like a reformer.

The capital is the key!

If the rebels can bring the movement there, then Assad will turn up the killing machine and that will set a much larger movement into motion.

Will Assad win?

I don’t think so, but more people are talking about him serving than in the past few days.

IRAN:

To the outside, laymen, the topic of Genies sounds a bit outrageous.

I see the Genie issue as a metaphor.

The Genie is “Nationalism” and the Supreme Council doesn’t want any part of a nationalistic / Persian movement in Iran.

Hence, the split and thus the growing conflict.

My short version, the wheels are in motion for both leaders in Iran to get in a position to survive the “virus” when it comes to Iran and it is coming!

ISRAEL:

A bad week coming up for Israel.

If Egypt actually opens the gates to Gaza, the situation there could go down hill in a FLASH!

Most people don’t expect the Hamas… Fatah love fest to last, but it may last long enough to get the PA Youth Movement marching in the streets of the West Bank and Gaza.

This is a run up week to what could be the beginning of the protest marches next week.

Watch the statement from Israel.

What they say this week will not be politically hype, but a window to where they are going.

LEBANON:

If Syria slides further down hill this week, and I think it will, then Assad may turn back to the concept of blaiming “others” such the March 14^th movement in Lebanon.

As for the Non Hezbollah side of Lebanon, the concept of pushing Hezbollah is becoming more and more obtainable given the frailty of Syria.

To put it simply, Lebanon could become a real hot spot in the next few weeks if not sooner.

OIL:

I’m far from a qualified Oil Speculator, but my guess is last weeks drop was a short-lived euphoria based on the killing of UBL.