WHAT WILL PUSH SYRIA
A few nights ago I spoke about a discussion I had with a friend of mine on the ability of Assad to survive the uprising?
I said I was going to have to understand a few more issues before I could accept his theory of Assad surviving.
I now know what one of the key elements is missing and how that impacts events in Syria
The Kurds!!
I must admit, I was under the impression the Kurds were far closer to joining the uprising than they seem to be.
It is clear to me now one of Assad’s key counters to the uprising is promising the Kurds more freedoms, more specifically citizenship.
Early in this process, Assad announced Syria
Although they have not seen this promises come true, it is clear they, collectively, don’t value getting involved, just yet.
The attached article talks to their concern the Arab Tribes made take action against them.
This speaks to the Kurds distrust of the Sunni population perhaps as much as they distrust the Bath Party and the Assad clan.
The Sunni factor:
It’s clear to me, now; the Sunni business class is the other key factor in Syria
To put this all in simple terms, the ability to achieve critical mass is simply not there yet.
As Assad refines the Iranian trick of rounding people up rather than shooting them in public, he just may find a way to survive.
So; does this mean I have changed my mind and now agree with my friend?
NOPE!!
Those that are fighting and those such as the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / understand what is missing and that they must get those factions involved to reach critical mass.
It is up to them!
How they do this may not be a pleasant issue.
Nothing gets a group committed to a cause faster than having members killed.
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