VENEZUELA! WHY THIS TIME MAY BE DIFFERENT:

 Last week, I made the statement I really wanted to address the events in Venezuela, but I was stuck on the Stone, Putin Bromance. After the event yesterday, I just couldn’t wait any longer. So, here we go!

Same Old…..Same Old?

Often, when I talk about Mexico, the typical reaction I get is, “Don’t worry…its Mexico…..It’s always that way”! At first look, that is most likely the reaction most “experts” would give when it comes to Venezuela. Here is the problem and for the US it’s a real problem that better not go overlooked. Yes, Venezuela has a history of social unrest. Yes the region has been heavily impacted by the US’s failed policies for the entire region. Yes, the Enemies of the US have long seen that same region as a prime target for countering the US’s influence in other parts of the word. Overlooked and underestimated! That has been the US’s overall stance towards Central and South America. As I have said time and time again, here is the problem. It’s the 21^st Century, not the 20^th and absolutely not the 19^th. Add to that statement, we are talking about Americas and the issue becomes far more complicated. Social Media, new world alliances. New Enemies with a new forms of warfare. Fact. Time changes all things. Times are changing in Central and South America. Social unrest is a global event, not a regional one. The Arab Spring’s energy was based upon the ability to get information out across the globe within minutes not hours or days. The US needs to understand. Venezuela now is not the Venezuela of 1992 or 2002. It’s 2017 and times have changed dramatically.  

What has changed?

I’ve been posting about Venezuela for over six years and the history of Hugo was more than interesting to me. So, here is the core issue and it’s the issue just about every nation who has had a dynamic Dictator has encountered. When Hugo died, there was nobody who could fill his shoes. His dynamic style was the only thing that was holding the dysfunctional country together. His vision of what he could accomplish for the common citizen set into a motion events, fiscal programs that have place his beloved nation where it is today. What changed? Hugo died and his flawed policies have brought those who are owed money to the doorstep of Venezuela’s capital. The “Dream” is over and now the fiscal nightmare is in full swing.

Bolivarian Revolution:

The beloved Bolivarian Revolution! Really? That is the cause Maduro is going to hide behind? It worked for Hugo, but I have bad news for Mr. Maduro, The Venezuelan people knew Hugo and he is no Hugo! Hugo Chavez believed in the Bolivarian Revolution. He believed you could take the wealth of one group and give it to others and everything would be just fine. Yep, that is the pipe dream of Socialism and Communisms and Hugo was a believer. Maduro is not attempting to move the Revolution forward. He’s simply using the emotions attached to the topic as a shield against the people who no longer believe in him or his government.  The Bolivarian Revolution is not the battle cry that will save the government of Venezuela. When people are eating their pets, they don’t want to hear, “We must protect the Revolution” and they don’t want to hear if from a guy who is fifty pounds overweight. I bet his Dog is still running around the royal palace!

The Real Danger!

What’s the danger of all of this? In the US, what is the “so what” factor? Well, first off, the most obvious danger is the collective group that says, “So what? It’s Venezuela”! A nation faces a great danger when their so called “experts” are idiots on important topics! No, Venezuela cannot attack the US or its Allies. No, the Venezuela people are not going to accept what is happing to their country because a guy who doesn’t have to eat his pets claims everything wrong there is the United States fault. Could the US be capable of pushing the insurrection,  as of yesterday that is what it is, along with an end state of a pro US government being placed in power? If you have to think for more than five seconds on that answer, you really need to study the history of the region a little harder. Read a little history on the US and Chile!

Soon, the government of Venezuela will have to realize, the Bolivarian Revolution angle will not work. The US excuse will not save them as well. What then? What action can this failed government possibly take? “The military has been placed on full alert”! Good luck Mr. Maduro. A few years ago, Mr. Hugo created the National Guard for a reason. He didn’t trust the loyalty of the Venezuelan military. If Maduro thinks he can unleash his military on their own people, he will realize just how many of them are not on his FB Friend’s list. A house divided in the military? Yes. A recipe for a Civil War? Yes and the US military knows this. Just how dangerous would another civil war in that region be? Again, some of the DC “experts” would harp back to the days of the Contras and Nicaragua. A distraction then, but nothing the US got truly worried about. It’s the reason the region is still a mess. A vision from the US that was based on idiot “experts” whose visions were hallucinations!

Mr. Maduro doesn’t have the tools to make real trouble for the US. What he does have is the strong ability to create an environment that the enemies of the US can exploit. Is there a history of Venezuelan partnering with Iran and Hezbollah? Oh…yes!  Would Iran love to see real trouble, trouble large enough to occupy the US’s time and drain US energy? You bet. How about the Tsar? What mischief could he and his team exploit if they wanted to? Oil. Oil drives the Mother Land and Venezuela is of keen interest to Moscow for that reason.  The Dragon? What long-term, well thought out plan does the Dragon have for the region? Again, oil and gas is a smell the Dragon has a nose for. Making the Americas unstable enough to force the US to concentrate on its own backyard rather than the Pacific? Does that sound logical?

It’s 2017. Hugo is still dead. Maduro is a fool and no Hugo. Key players in this new world are more than willing to see the US occupied somewhere else. If you think the troubles in Venezuela are “Typical”, then you qualify for a job as an “expert” in DC.