Sunday, April 20, 2014



ASSAD REELECTION...DOES HE SEE THE CHANGE?

 I found this to be an interesting article by a superior writer on the issues of the Middle East that addresses an issue I’ve talked about for over a year now.

Again; back to the question of, “what price does Hezbollah pay for entering the conflict in Syria”?

If you have followed my opinions on this topic, you know I’ve predicted the transformation of Hezbollah and even the demise of what it initially stood for.

As I have said in the past, an organization with a prolonged operational engagement runs the inherent risk of, “you are no longer one of us…. You were not there”!

So, what could be pulling Hezbollah apart and what does it mean to their future?

Does Assad, as the author states in this attached article, risk Hezbollah getting too much credit for gaining ground in the conflict?

Great question, if you accept the premise that Assad has “gained ground / momentum”

 Side Note:  All save that argument for the end of this post.

Let’s look at what Hezbollah potentially going against them.

Popularity:

 Do the people of Lebanon believe Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria benefited Lebanon….. are the people of Lebanon safer than before Hezbollah entered Syria?

No!

Trust:   

Does Assad “trust” Hezbollah….. does Hezbollah “trust” Assad?

Are they both just convenient partners both dancing to the fiddle of the Persians?

Where is the trust now inside the Hezbollah?

What has changed?

Who has paid the price for battles in Syria and who has sat back in Lebanon and sipped Tea while writing colorful speeches and making money in the Black Market / Drug world?

What price has “fatigue” placed on the internal workings of Hezbollah?

What new Alliances are now made and who dreams of being the new “Boss”?

Support: 

Do the Persians really care about Hezbollah’s popularity in Lebanon or are they still what they have always been, a weapon in a pending war with Israel?

If Assad sees Hezbollah as a threat to his status in Syria, does he deal with his Persian masters to negate Hezbollah’s status or does he limit the movement of logistics from Iran to Lebanon?

A lot of question here, but one fact remains; what is the future of Hezbollah in Syria and what impact will that future have to the very future of the organization?

Ok, back to the side note I mentioned earlier; the “progress” Assad has made over the past few months.

Are the streets of Damascus safer now than last year?

Does Assad’s photo hang from the walls on any buildings in Aleppo, what is left of Aleppo….. the industrial hub of what was Syria.

And that is my point; what is left of Syria?

What has Assad really regained “control” over?

 Syria will never function again as it did prior to this conflict.

Assad’s dream of surviving the storm and then getting back to business as usual is gone!

Here is the issue he simply is incapable of understanding.

Not just Syria has changed!

The entire region has changed.

Alliances have changed, are changing and will change.

Two weeks ago, I wrote of the apparent fleeting support by the Tsar and the Persians!

Who is Assad trying to convince as he approaches the elections?

What was true three years ago is no longer so.

Does Assad understand this?

No.

Do the Persians and the Tsar?

Yes!

I’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying over and over again.

When you get right down to it, not just the Middle East or the region has changed or is changing… the whole world balance is changing.

The question becomes where does a small little slice like Assad fit in?

Three years ago, he was the talk of the town…. Now… all of Europe is under threat of “change” and Assad’s world is shoved to the rear.

Chemical weapons used again over the past few weeks and did anyone even care?

What I find almost comical is the very idea that an election in Syria is even worth talking about!

For an eye Doctor, you would think he would have better “vision” than he does!





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