THE SAUDI ASSERTIVE DEFENSE DOCTRINE…. CAN IT BE DONE?
On several occasions I've addressed the issue of Saudi
coming to the realization they soon, if not already, may be “on their own” in
terms of maintaining their world as they know it.
Rumors of oil running out.
More countries striving to become fuel independent with the
US leading the way despite the current administration allegiance to it’s environmental
base.
A US doctrine that gives every perception of walking away
from the Royal Family all it stands for.
A Western, initial support, to the Arab Spring; an event I
nicknamed the Tunisian Virus from day one!
The perception of a Western slant towards Shia / Persian /
relationships.
Are these events enough to send the GCC members into a new direction;
a direction that is based on once again attempting to stand, militarily, on
their own feet!!!
Yes!
If you don’t agree, then you might be a member of the
Western oil industry as you desperately try to convince you GCC partners this
is all just a bad dream, a misunderstanding that will go away soon….2016…..
You want to see this process go into overdrive…..just let
the GCC sit in their rooms on election night for the US and watch Hilary
Clinton win the White House.
If you do accept the premise this shift is taking place,
then follow me as I walk down the path of what will it take for this process to
finally be successful; hint… it has not happened since the days of Saladin!
So, why is it so difficult for the Arab nations to build and
maintain a viable military…one based on a true ability to interact and execute in
a multinational contingency?
Time and time again, those who claim they have “worked” with
these nations…sold them systems they don’t need….can’t use or don’t even
understand will sit, outside of ear shout and say something along the lines of,
“ they are too lazy to be a true fighting force”!
An ugly statement, but what is even more important is, it’s
not true.
Do I have the portfolio to make that statement?
Yes.
How.
Don’t worry how, just trust me when I state that I do.
Time and time again many of these military units have shown
to be little more than flashy and parade ready or even worse, scripted exercise
with Brass watching from the sidelines.
Do these countries have specialized units that have passed
true evaluations?
Yes, but small, specialized units don’t win conflicts….they execute
missions that may lead to victory, but they do not determine victory.
So, what is the problem?
What has made this large scale improvement process so
difficult to achieve?
Let me give a very ugly answer.
Who really wanted or wants them to be a viable fighting
force?
Is the true mission to keep them hooked on Western equipment…keep
them spending huge sums of money on defense contractors…. Paying for training
programs that never show them the real pathway to becoming a modern military?
Do they put the effort into the process they are being
shown?
Do they truly trust their forces to be taught how to think
on their own?
Do the schools they are allowed to attend really mean as
much to them as they should?
Hard questions that need honest answers before the way
forward can be paved.
Back to the most basic point of this discussion.
Who really wants to see the GCC / Saudi / become an honest
power projection fighting force?
Can the Saudi’s really envision it?
Even if they can; can the rest of the GCC membership?
Are they a house divided; so divided the concept of a truly
capable Peninsula shield force cannot become reality?
The reality is, most will see this Saudi vision as one thing
and only one thing; an opportunity to make money…large amounts of money.
The Middle East has been crawling with what I call Mr Haneys
for decades with 9-11 being the zenith of a “ It just so happens I have what
you need right here in the back of my truck”.
Side note: For those of you who don’t know who Mr Haney
was, he as a character on a TV show in the US back in the 60s called Green
Acres….. Mr Haney would show up everyday at Mr Douglas’s house, a rich New York
Layer who moved to the country to work a rundown farm, and sell him anything he
was looking for….Get the picture?
Billions have been made and the GCC still feels it needs a
dramatic “change” in the unified approach to defending their countries.
Why?
Again, both side are at fault, but the Mr Haney’s of the
world are the ones that made the Billions and the leaders of these nations know
when they are being “took”!
Remember…Arab Businessmen have a few thousand years of
experience in the skill craft of “dealing”.
Spending the last few decades, since the oil money showed
up, being “taken” usually had a level of “kickback” built in!
Remember what I said; the reason effectiveness has been
limited goes to both sides of the process…very few innocent members have been
at the table.
Ok, it’s easy to criticize and it’s easy to sit here and
explain why this modernization has failed to provide the leaders of the GCC
with the confidence they desire.
Tomorrow I will spell out what I believe it will take to
make this process finally become reality; and guess what… I won’t charge a
dime!!!
Pass this post around for the next few days…this is going to
be fun…fun to me that is!
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