Tuesday, March 4, 2014



 UKRAINE... WHAT IF THE FIGHTING DOES ACTUALLY START?

Ok, it's time to take a break from, "how do we stop it... why did it happen... what can we do about it:.. and so on and so on....

Let's go back to my favorite game.. the game of "what if" and let's play what if based upon the assumption the Tsar intends on occupying the whole of Ukraine; and please lets not go down the road of, "that's not going to happen"... I don't want to waste time on that line of thought.

So, here we go; What if?

What if the Tatars of the Crimean decide to reach out to "outside help", namely fellow Muslims who are skilled in the art of asymmetric warfare?

How long might it be before we witness events such as car bombs and IED's ?

Well, that depends on how long the Tatars have been anticipating the invasion by the Russians.

If certain groups in the Crimean have been preparing for this moment in time, then the opportunity to counter strike is much sooner that most would think.

Have the Tatars had individuals fighting in Syria?

Who has learned what skills in the Sunni / Shia battles of the past three years?

Ok, next "what if"!

What if this does take place in the Crimea?

What will the reaction be.. by the  pro Russian government... by the Tsar?

We have witnessed the heavy handed tactics of the Tsar when dealing with the Northern Caucus fighters and who can forget...most have.. what the Russians did to the city of Grozny.

What if, the Russian armored vehicles and Navel ships are not the targets of the pending "resistance" in the Crimea?

What if the Tatar's decide the Crimea is the new Chechnya.. oh by the way...it will be!

What if the successful annexation / secession of the Crimea turns into the Ukrainian version of Aleppo?

Who do you think the Tsar is going to blame for such an event, regardless of the truth?

On to the next, "what if"!

What if the Tsar decides the eastern part of Ukraine must come under Russian control?

Will the West fight for it?

No!

Will Europe give up it's fuel from Russia over Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will sanctions last or even work?

No!

Will the Tsar stop with just securing Eastern Ukraine?

No!

Will the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, fight?

Yes!

Can they win?

What is the definition of "wining"?

Please define wining in a confrontation between Russia and the non Russian slice of the Ukraine.

Will the Ukrainian military fight an unconventional war?

Yes!

Is the Russian military ready for an unconventional war?

No!

Russia, like the US and other Cold War nations are still dominated by military leaders who may talk the talk of unconventional warfare.... COIN....ect...ect... but they still walk the walk of good old kinetic fighting... Armored vehicles, jets... ships...

There is no comparison between the modernization of the US military and the Russian military and yet the US military could not master unconventional warfare after twelve years of nonstop practice.

The Russian military has no chance of conducting effective operations on Ukrainian land and the Ukrainian military and civilians who will become fighters know it.

In December of 1979, the Soviet military invaded Afghanistan and ten years afterwards they left with their tank turrets turned to the rear!

Putin remembers this nightmare just as well as anyone else and you can bet it has not left his train of thought with the Ukraine.

Have the Russians derived a plan for dealing with the Ukraine?

Most likely yes.

Is the Ukraine the only issue here on the Tsar's Master Plan table?

No.

Does getting completely bogged down in a very ugly conflict in the Ukraine serve his dream of the future Russia?

Now that is the most dangerous question of all!

You see, the Tsar seems to live in an alternative universe and it that universe he could very easily see himself as the new leader of a redesigned Europe.. if not the world..

Look... the sane individuals in history have not been responsible for changing the course of the world.

Unfortunately, it's been the irrational / insane figures that have taken the world in a new direction.

The new Tsar fits this mold to the letter and that is the most dangerous thing about the events in the Ukraine.



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