Ok, it's time to take a break from, "how do we stop
it... why did it happen... what can we do about it:.. and so on and so on....
Let's go back to my favorite game.. the game of "what
if" and let's play what if based upon the assumption the Tsar intends on
occupying the whole of Ukraine; and please lets not go down the road of,
"that's not going to happen"... I don't want to waste time on that
line of thought.
So, here we go; What if?
What if the Tatars of the Crimean decide to reach out to
"outside help", namely fellow Muslims who are skilled in the art of asymmetric
warfare?
How long might it be before we witness events such as car
bombs and IED's ?
Well, that depends on how long the Tatars have been anticipating
the invasion by the Russians.
If certain groups in the Crimean have been preparing for
this moment in time, then the opportunity to counter strike is much sooner that
most would think.
Have the Tatars had individuals fighting in Syria ?
Who has learned what skills in the Sunni / Shia battles of
the past three years?
Ok, next "what if"!
What if this does take place in the Crimea ?
What will the reaction be.. by the pro Russian government... by the Tsar?
We have witnessed the heavy handed tactics of the Tsar when
dealing with the Northern Caucus fighters and who can forget...most have.. what
the Russians did to the city of Grozny .
What if, the Russian armored vehicles and Navel ships are
not the targets of the pending "resistance" in the Crimea ?
What if the Tatar's decide the Crimea is the new Chechnya .. oh
by the way...it will be!
What if the successful annexation / secession of the Crimea
turns into the Ukrainian version of Aleppo ?
Who do you think the Tsar is going to blame for such an
event, regardless of the truth?
On to the next, "what if"!
What if the Tsar decides the eastern part of Ukraine must
come under Russian control?
Will the West fight for it?
No!
Will Europe give up it's fuel from Russia over Eastern Ukraine ?
No!
Will sanctions last or even work?
No!
Will the Tsar stop with just securing Eastern
Ukraine ?
No!
Will the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, fight?
Yes!
Can they win?
What is the definition of "wining"?
Please define wining in a confrontation between Russia and the non Russian slice of the Ukraine .
Will the Ukrainian military fight an unconventional war?
Yes!
Is the Russian military ready for an unconventional war?
No!
There is no comparison between the modernization of the US military and the Russian military and yet the
US
military could not master unconventional warfare after twelve years of nonstop
practice.
The Russian military has no chance of conducting effective
operations on Ukrainian land and the Ukrainian military and civilians who will
become fighters know it.
In December of 1979, the Soviet military invaded Afghanistan and
ten years afterwards they left with their tank turrets turned to the rear!
Putin remembers this nightmare just as well as anyone else
and you can bet it has not left his train of thought with the Ukraine .
Have the Russians derived a plan for dealing with the Ukraine ?
Most likely yes.
Is the Ukraine
the only issue here on the Tsar's Master Plan table?
No.
Does getting completely bogged down in a very ugly conflict
in the Ukraine serve his
dream of the future Russia ?
Now that is the most dangerous question of all!
You see, the Tsar seems to live in an alternative universe
and it that universe he could very easily see himself as the new leader of a
redesigned Europe .. if not the world..
Look... the sane individuals in history have not been
responsible for changing the course of the world.
Unfortunately, it's been the irrational / insane figures
that have taken the world in a new direction.
The new Tsar fits this mold to the letter and that is the
most dangerous thing about the events in the Ukraine .
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