THE ARAB SUMMIT AND TROUBLES AHEAD FOR THE GCC.

A week or two ago, I commented on the rift inside the GCC that seemed to be deliberately made public by Saudi Arabia.

I spoke of how damaging this "rift" could be to the GCC, a GCC run by families who don't understand the speed of social media in the 21st Century.

From day one of the Arab Spring.... Tunisian Virus... yep.. I'm not giving up on my nickname... the Gulf State Leaders have feared what they could not understand and still cannot control.

It's not just the close-minded Gulf States that are lost, but governance in general.

The problem is, the fear factor is compounded in the Middle East.

As the fear of what the Arab Spring might bring to each countries doorstep grew, as is always the case, some leaders decided to break ranks and taka an individual approach to surviving / dealing with the Arab Spring.

In my opinion, this is exactly what Qatar has tried to execute..... getting on the " we are with you" side of the Arab Spring.

I know some have speculated Qatar's bizarre abandonment of the GCC pack was based on the desire to " take a leading role" in the region.

I'm not sold on that theory.

My bet is what Qatar did was set in motion a process they truly believed would allow them to survive the Arab Spring if and when it showed up on their doorstep.

Obviously, this concept was not discussed or approved by the Mother ship of the GCC.... Saudi!

And so now we get to the bottom line of the Qatar issue!

So what?

How much attention does the world give to the rift taking place inside the GCC?

What does it mean to Europe, Asia ect...ect....?

Well, that is a complicated question to even begin to ponder, but I can tell you who is more than interested in what is taking place!

The Persians!

And what does this have to do with the pending Arab League Summit?

Everything...... Nothing.... depending on your world view!

To the Persians it is everything.....

To Europe... given the actions of the Tsar.. It's probably nothing!

And then....well... there is my opinion...the one that is most important to me!

On a good day the Arab League is not much more than a weekend getaway for the wealthiest men in the world!

In troubled times, it's a group that simply can't shoot straight! ( P.S.. I think I have called them this before, but I can't remember and don't feel like searching my site.)

Now, on a typical day, the Arab League would meet.... talk... .drink tea.. and other things in the company of a few trusted members.. give a few hollow speeches and then go home.

Come to think of it, not much different from the day to day workings of the UN!

Here is the problem.

These are not "normal times".

Not even close!

As a matter of fact, the "times" right now may be more dangerous then they've been in fifty years.

How stable is the Tsar?

What is he really up to... Hint... The West doesn't have a clue!

Where is China going in the Pacific and more importantly.. when?

How much longer do the Israelis tolerate the Persian Western shell game?

To put it simply, the word is moving fast and moving in several dangerous directions with social media acting as the catalyst of distrust of typical governance.

For the rest of the world these are troubling times.

For the Arab League, this is an extremely dangerous period sliding into a crisis.

Think about it!

The Arab nations who upset with the direction of Qatar are the same ones preparing to cut a "deal" with the Israelis over any pending actions against the Persians.

Talk about not holding the party line!

What could happen to the GCC?

In the law of nature, the weak go fist and the GCC is one of the weakest Alliances out there.

What holds them together is simple....profit!

What is good for one is only good for the other if the profit margin is there.

Just how much interference would it take to drive the GCC into actions that might have disastrous outcomes for it's members?

What if that interference came from a nation that was skilled in the art form of interference..... Hint.. more than just Iran... Think... the Tsar!

Is there any true bond between the Tsar and his vision of the world in a few years and the GCC?

In the long run, is the GCC not just a competitor for a market the Russians wish to dominate for decades to come?

What chance does the Arab League have of pulling in Qatar?

What is Qatar really afraid of?

If the Arab League can address that question, then they may have a chance, but the Persians will get a vote and the Persians have a friend / Master / in their corner... The Tsar!

So, if the GCC wishes to hold itself together and the Arab League is tasked to help address that wish, then they better do more in the next two days than give hollow speeches and send their wives to shop!

The world is moving faster by the second and the complications of governance are becoming more of a challenge with each passing day.

The Arab League needs to find their nitch and they need to find it quickly.

And finally... just how much money can Saudi spend to solve the Qatar  problem...oh ya.. and who will they spend it on?