PRESIDENT SULEIMAN AND HEZBOLLAH.. THE THRILL IS GONE!

Well, it's been coming for a while now, but it does appear it's official.

What could have once been described as a uneasy alliance between Hezbollah and President Suleiman now appears to be officially over.

Giving support to the concept of Hezbollah turning it's weapons over, ones they don't want the world to know they even have, to the Lebanese Military, a military that has been cooperative with them yet involved in a "working relationship with the West.....well... that is a bridge too far for the Persian Puppets.

It's been a classic example of Statesmanship, fence sitting that Mr. Suleiman has been executing, but as the old saying goes it became time to "fish or cut bait"!

Those who truly understand Lebanon, sense times are changing and the future of Lebanon cannot include an armed group of killers who have been actively engaged in a sectarian war.....a war that has seen Muslim's murdering Muslims... a war that has Arabs killing Arabs.

Hezbollah, like Hamas has not changed with the times and their leadership's desire to hold on to power and wealth has made them as transparent as any of the other ruthless leaders in the Middle East.

Suleiman knows all too well Hezbollah has no problem letting blood fill the streets of Lebanon's towns and cities if it means staying in control of what they desire more than anything else...power!

Does Suleiman and those around him who are beginning to see the light have future of holding hands with the opposition in Lebanon?

Probably not, but the difference is, the opposition  is not  willing to burn Lebanon to the ground to gain power!

Yes, the Sunni leaders in Lebanon are not without guilt, but the fact of the matter is they have far less blood on their hands than Hezbollah.

When Hezbollah first ventured into Syria, at the orders of the Persians, I said then it was the beginning of the end for them.

Hezbollah wakes up tomorrow morning, like every other morning in the past two years, realizing the people of Lebanon grow tired of their games and the will to support them is fleeing the country.

In the end, the only safe place for the leaders of Hezbollah may very well be Damascus and I have a feeling that is where they are already.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/132501/hezbollah-snubs-lebanons-national-dialogue

 side note: My old friend and fellow blogger is telling me he has over thirty countries following him now!

Well.. He writes Comic Books and I write what needs to be said!! 

But, push my post around if you can... I would love to show him who gets more hits!!!

SNAPSHOT..... HEZBOLLAH....RUSSIA... SAUDI AND THE ARAB LEAGUE

I've not done one of these is months, but today is a good day to do one; SNAPSHOT.

(A quick look at several key topics that lead to a common "picture").

HEZBOLLAH:

It appears Nasrallah felt it was time to give one of his canned, "why are we here", speeches this week.

Why is Hezbollah in Syria?

Those that know the region, know the answer and it's an answer that really upsets those who support Hezbollah with their families blood..... by the way. Hezbollah doesn't need the money for the fighting in Syria, Assad and the Persians supply that part.. the cheap part of the process.

The young men of Hezbollah are in Syria because for two reasons.

1.  They fear the Sunni movement more than they fear an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

2.  They given their orders by their Persian Masters and their Masters want them in Syria leading to Arabs killing Arabs!

Now, both of these points are more than hard sells for Mr. Nasrallah and a very evil government once lived by the premises of, " The greater the lie, the more often you have to tell it"!

The fact of the matter is, just as some of us predicted, Hezbollah ran to the glory of young men fighting in the streets of Syria only to realize there is no way out!!!!!

The other ugly fact that Mr. Nasrallah wants desperately to avoid is the reality that Lebanon is now in more danger than ever of becoming yet again a failed nation-state.

The chances of those who wish Lebanon to survive the event in Syria; those who wish to avoid shoving Lebanon into a sectarian war have been greatly diminished by the selfish actions of Mr. Nasrallah and his Persian Masters.

Finally, if there is one thing Hezbollah's leadership understands, it's the reality their Persian Masters also have a Master and that Grand Master's name is Putin!

What does the Tsar's complex game have planned for the Persians and how will the Puppets of Hezbollah be tasked?

Who knows...... they will just have to wait to see what the Persians are told to do.  

NEXT:

RUSSIA:

Well, that leads to the next interesting slice of the Snapshot!

In the past two days, a great deal has been made of the Tsar's 'reaching out" to the US.

Even this morning the Western Press is ripe with stories of "further diplomatic meetings"!

Well, as my Mother always said, "talk is cheap", and that is exactly how an X KGB Chief would see it!

"Talk", most likely a necessary round or phase of the Tsar's Master Plan; he can't let that public image get too far out of hand!

So, the obvious question remains, what's next?

What happens?

Is there another phase to the Tsar's Master plan?

Well, ask yourself this one simple question and I think you will begin to form your own answer.

Would Putin and Russia knowingly had their economic future jeopardized for the sake a physically taking control of a small slice of land....a slice of land the whole world knows they already control outright?

Does the Tsar fear the Russian version of a Arab Spring so much, that he has decided to launch his reinstatement of the Russian Empire with full force?

Most of us know, he has long dreamed of regaining Russian glory, but have the events of the past three years... have the growing protest in Moscow and the expanding Social Media concept driven his worries to the point of complete panic?

My guess is, unfortunately....yes!!!

Well, that should give everyone their answer!

This Crimea / Ukranian / event was not about the Crimean people longing to be part of Mother Russia.

This was not a single "blip" on the world's radar.

In my opinion, this was round one of a very paranoid, egomaniac's reaction to a threat he cannot live with.

NEXT!

SAUDI ARABIA:

Where is Saudi after this week of "talking" with the US?

Are the fears of abandonment gone?

Insert laughter here.

Will the central figure of the Gulf Region begin to calm down over it's future with the US?

No!

Like the Tsar, the Saudi leadership fears change.... change they cannot control and change that leads to future that may or may not involve them.

Who can help them prevent this change?

China.... India.... Russia... Israel......yes I said Israel!!!

Never...ever...forget...."The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend"!

If the West is no longer perceived as part of the process and the Gulf States have what others desperately need.. fuel..... then what new strategic alliances are in the making?

History has always shown us Alliances have three parts... beginnings.... Test...Breakup!

Here is another historical fact of Alliances; after they fall apart, the old members have very little say so on what the other member / members / do or who they form new Alliances with!

Here is my hint.... we nee to produce every ounce of energy in this country that we can and we need to reach out to Mexico like we never have before.

NEXT:

THE ARAB LEAGUE:

 Let's face the reality of the world as it stands today.

The Arab League is a complete waste of time!

No one pays attention to it, not even it's members.

It's like a dying country club in an area that at one time was the place to live, but is now rundown.

My prediction is that after new alliances are forged in the Arab world, a process that is taking place right now, the Arab League will be renamed and maybe even reenergized!

Until then, the organization is not even with mentioning or tracking.

The events surrounding the rifts in the GCC are going to change the course of the Arab world.

Simply put.. as the GCC moves, the rest will follow...

It's the same old story....follow the money!

SO THE TSAR CALLS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES?

So, the Tsar called the President of the United States while the President was in Saudi Arabia?

Did anyone catch that point?

Why make that call now?

Why call him while he is discussing regional visions and alliances with an allie that is more than skeptical now?

Does anyone think the point was lost on the King or his staff?

I bet it was not lost at all!

In the eyes of an Arab leader, who would look like the person truly in charge?

The person visiting another country, a country the person is struggling with?

The person who made the call, knowing the location and topics the other side was involved in?

Am making something out of nothing?

I would like my friends in the Middle East to answer that question.

Gamesmanship..... an art form the Tsar has come to master....that is what I believe is taking place here!

Next question; did the Tsar simply make the phone call to make the President look weak in front of the Saudi King or did he make this stunt a "twofer"?

I would love to hear what the Tsar had to say and even more, I would love to know who got to listen in on both sides.

On one side is most likely  Ms Rice.... Please!!!!

On the other side.... well...who knows.... ask the Western intelligence agencies who is part of the Tsar's inner circle and see if they have a real clue!

Ok, on to what was said.

Does anyone really think the Tsar "reached out" to the President of the United States?

Really????

If the Tsar's perception of the President of the US is let's say, less than favorable, then what message was given?

"Here is what I'm going to do and here is why and I want to warn you about taking this too far... I want you to understand why I am doing what I am and that I will not change my mind"!

What if that was the message....more or less?

Early today a lot was said about the US President's comments about understanding what worries the Russian President!

Let me ask a simple question.

How does everyone think that somewhat sympathetic stance played in Eastern Europe?

What was the fly on the wall version from the leadership of Poland... Bulgaria ect...ect?

Is it possible the Tsar read and heard this stance and figured it was the right time to make the next move? 

Here is what I believe.

Whatever the purpose was behind the Tsar's phone call, we will see the results soon.

I am sure the Tsar was not feeling desperate or pressured to "reach out" to the US President.

If anyone thinks that could be the case, and most liberal media will, than they are simply hiding their heads in the sand...once again...

SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE FEARS OF ERDAGAN:

It was hard to decide to stay on the topic of Egodan and his struggle to suppress Social Media in Turkey, given all the events that were worthy of discussion today.

None the less, what he is attempting to do is more than important enough to justify at least one more review before I move on to what is taking place with the rest of the region and Europe.

Ok, in my reoccurring desire to keep it simple.... let me just reiterate why Egodan is doing or attempting to do... stifle social media events by the people who he perceives to be his enemies... and that list seems to be growing by the day.

As if his attempts to close the door on Twitter were not enough to get people to turn their heads in disbelief, now he has his lapdogs make a move on Youtube?

I will give you the fact Google made "deals" with China, but Google saw a BILLION...FIVE HUNDRED MILLION potential customers in China and what company would not sell their collective soul for such a goal?

And besides, in the end, not even China's governmental machine will achieve the goal of limiting the people's ability to communicate with the outside world.

Here is the next part of this Egodan story that caught my eye.

What was it that Youtube did that upset him so much?

Oh ya.. showed a clip of his lapdogs laying out the plans for actions inside of Syria; and event many like me think is coming if needed to take the heat of Egodan.

Did Youtube fabricate the clip?

No!

Did someone in the opposition "doctor" the clip?

Who knows.

The one thing I didn't hear today was the lapdogs of Egodan stating the whole story was a fabrication; as a matter of fact they said, "parts had been doctored"?

What does that mean?

Do government's and their militaries draft "contingency plans"?

Of course they do!

So, why not simply say, someone hung a clip that showed a typical planning process.... like any planning process that has most likely taken place dozens of times since the crisis in Syria began?

I will tell you why; Because the leaked clip is not the issue at all.

The issue is the fury over social media not being controllable in Egodan's Land... Remember.... he owns the whole country...just ask him or listen to his speeches.

Look, there are many issues taking place right now both in the region of the Middle East and the areas around it and most of them are capable of sparking very dangerous events.

The whole region has been an accident waiting to happen for years, but Turkey is not just a trivial matter.

Yes, Egodan is just another egomaniac who is terrified of losing power...power he wants to hold on to for years to come, but Turkey is a gateway nation and this gateway nation sits at the doorstep of a region already reeling from the actions of the new Tsar.

Squeezing social media is going to and actually already has, backfire on him and his government.

As some try desperately to "keep it all together: in the region and even in Europe, it is critical that someone else doesn't set the wheels in motion for larger problems.

Now is not the time for Turkey to decide to move on Syria for the sake of saving Egodan's rule.

Social media usage in Turkey is not the issue here, but the actions of his government are a real indication just how dangerous his actions... thoughts are becoming.

We don't need anymore "bad news" in the region, but I don't know that Egodan knows that or even cares.

ERDOGAN'S LOSING CONTROL ... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

In a flash of the obvious, I will state once again just how idiotic the attempt by Egodan to kill TWITTER in Turkey, or as he would put it, "in my country"!  I keep forgetting he owns the whole country... Side note.. When a national leader speaks in first person, that is a very...very dangerous sign!!!! Always has been.... always will be!

As if the assign attempt on TWITTER wasn't outrageous enough, today's comments about the CHP, the opposition party in Turkey, being "hand in hand with  Assad and the "Terrorist" working inside Syria is sadly anther example of just how irrational Egodan truly is!  Another side note:  how is it you can accuse your political rival of being sympathetic to both sides of a civil conflict...... I'm not the only one who was "lost" on this comment!

And if this still not enough, Egodan then went on to compare the Gulen movement to yet another Terrorist organization!

So, according to Egodan's vision of the world, if you are not in support of him.... then you are a member of or support a Terrorist organization!

Are you lost yet?

It also appears Egodan is possibly getting ready to take a page from the Tsar's new book, "how to capture territory you really didn't need to"!

All the talk over the status surrounding the Tomb of Suleiman Shah in Syria sounds eerily familiar.

I do find it interesting the ISIL would be confident in goating Turkey into sending troops into Syria only days after Egodan launched his anti Twitter distraction action against the Syrian Fighter aircraft.

If the ISIL was really cunning enough to derive a plan that would lead to Turkish interdiction in Syria, even if only limited,  then they may truly have a working understanding of just how fragile Egodan's government is.

The facts remain the same.

Egodan's Iron Fist rule of Turkey is under attack and his list of enemies is growing by the day.

Trying to keep social media from the people in Turkey he fears the most, the youth, well only an out of touch fool could possibly believe such a stunt is even achievable.

The danger is, yet another key leader in the region, a leader who is linked to NATO, is becoming more and more irrational and he is a leader the West has supported... well... up until now!

Ask Mubarak how fast Western "support" can fade!

MIDDLE EAST AND THE UKRAINIAN CONNECTION.

Two weeks ago, I stated the impact of the Ukrainian crisis could easily end up impacting the conflict in Syria.

That was an easy and safe thing to predict, and because of that, I would like to take the time to go back to a topic I've not spoken of in the past three months.

I've not said much about the events in Syria for several months for one basic reason; not much was changing.

The stalemate that nearly everyone who knows the region predicted had come true.

The North cannot be retaken by the Assad forces and the South cannot be won by the Rebels thanks to Iranian and Hezbollah support.

What had become more than apparent was the ability to prevent Lebanon from becoming the fuse that truly ignited the entire region.

Most of the credit for this accomplishment must go to the people of Lebanon for it is they who have fought hard to keep Lebanon from sliding into the abyss.

I gave and would give very little credit to the West or "others.... insert GCC members here, for keeping Lebanon from imploding.

It is truly Lebanon's will that has kept the country from slipping over the edge of madness.

So, what has changed?

What has the Ukrainian crisis done to the day to day odds of Lebanon and the events in Syria or the Middle East in general of falling into a regional conflict?

Well, the true answer rest with the Tsar!

Yes the Tsar!

How far is he willing to counter the Western reaction to his plan of reestablishing the Russian Empire's grip on Eastern Europe?

Just how is the Middle East fit into the emerging struggle between the West and the new Russian Empire?

When the Master Plan was being drafted in Moscow, what was the "plan" for the Middle East?

The Middle East; a region that is a competitor for petrol dollars?

Never ever forget.... the bottom line for the future of the Tsar's Mother Russia is based upon the price of fuel!

You can philosophize to the Cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, the Tsar centers his master plan based on the profits of fuel!

Let's assume, remember... the "assumption game is one of my favorites, the Tsar's plans for the region called the Middle East are based upon keeping the price of fuel high!

Does he want "peace" in the region?

No!

Does he desire competitive markets?

What do "competitive markets do...drive down prices....thus... drive down profits and profits make the Motherland grow.

If the West truly understands how to counter the Tsar, then they understand the price of fuel is the real Center of Gravity.

If the Middle East stabilizes, then the price of fuel is determined by the GCC and then the question becomes does the GCC have the same "vision" the Tsar has?

I know that answer and it's NO!

Here is the truly ironic part of this story... the GCC / Saudi / reached out to the Tsar when it felt abandoned by the West / US / and the Tsar did not take the handshake.  

IDIOT!!!

Can the Tsar control the events of the Middle East?

No!

Can the West?

No!

Can the people of Lebanon hold on for much longer?

Let's all pray, regardless of what we think our God says, so!

The only thing holding the Middle East together right now are the people who want to avoid a regional war at all cost.

If the Tsar needs a regional war in the Middle East and the West would rather have the Israelis fight one there than the West fight in Europe, then we who do not wish for war need to support the good people of the Middle East at all cost!

THE ARAB SUMMIT AND TROUBLES AHEAD FOR THE GCC.

A week or two ago, I commented on the rift inside the GCC that seemed to be deliberately made public by Saudi Arabia.

I spoke of how damaging this "rift" could be to the GCC, a GCC run by families who don't understand the speed of social media in the 21st Century.

From day one of the Arab Spring.... Tunisian Virus... yep.. I'm not giving up on my nickname... the Gulf State Leaders have feared what they could not understand and still cannot control.

It's not just the close-minded Gulf States that are lost, but governance in general.

The problem is, the fear factor is compounded in the Middle East.

As the fear of what the Arab Spring might bring to each countries doorstep grew, as is always the case, some leaders decided to break ranks and taka an individual approach to surviving / dealing with the Arab Spring.

In my opinion, this is exactly what Qatar has tried to execute..... getting on the " we are with you" side of the Arab Spring.

I know some have speculated Qatar's bizarre abandonment of the GCC pack was based on the desire to " take a leading role" in the region.

I'm not sold on that theory.

My bet is what Qatar did was set in motion a process they truly believed would allow them to survive the Arab Spring if and when it showed up on their doorstep.

Obviously, this concept was not discussed or approved by the Mother ship of the GCC.... Saudi!

And so now we get to the bottom line of the Qatar issue!

So what?

How much attention does the world give to the rift taking place inside the GCC?

What does it mean to Europe, Asia ect...ect....?

Well, that is a complicated question to even begin to ponder, but I can tell you who is more than interested in what is taking place!

The Persians!

And what does this have to do with the pending Arab League Summit?

Everything...... Nothing.... depending on your world view!

To the Persians it is everything.....

To Europe... given the actions of the Tsar.. It's probably nothing!

And then....well... there is my opinion...the one that is most important to me!

On a good day the Arab League is not much more than a weekend getaway for the wealthiest men in the world!

In troubled times, it's a group that simply can't shoot straight! ( P.S.. I think I have called them this before, but I can't remember and don't feel like searching my site.)

Now, on a typical day, the Arab League would meet.... talk... .drink tea.. and other things in the company of a few trusted members.. give a few hollow speeches and then go home.

Come to think of it, not much different from the day to day workings of the UN!

Here is the problem.

These are not "normal times".

Not even close!

As a matter of fact, the "times" right now may be more dangerous then they've been in fifty years.

How stable is the Tsar?

What is he really up to... Hint... The West doesn't have a clue!

Where is China going in the Pacific and more importantly.. when?

How much longer do the Israelis tolerate the Persian Western shell game?

To put it simply, the word is moving fast and moving in several dangerous directions with social media acting as the catalyst of distrust of typical governance.

For the rest of the world these are troubling times.

For the Arab League, this is an extremely dangerous period sliding into a crisis.

Think about it!

The Arab nations who upset with the direction of Qatar are the same ones preparing to cut a "deal" with the Israelis over any pending actions against the Persians.

Talk about not holding the party line!

What could happen to the GCC?

In the law of nature, the weak go fist and the GCC is one of the weakest Alliances out there.

What holds them together is simple....profit!

What is good for one is only good for the other if the profit margin is there.

Just how much interference would it take to drive the GCC into actions that might have disastrous outcomes for it's members?

What if that interference came from a nation that was skilled in the art form of interference..... Hint.. more than just Iran... Think... the Tsar!

Is there any true bond between the Tsar and his vision of the world in a few years and the GCC?

In the long run, is the GCC not just a competitor for a market the Russians wish to dominate for decades to come?

What chance does the Arab League have of pulling in Qatar?

What is Qatar really afraid of?

If the Arab League can address that question, then they may have a chance, but the Persians will get a vote and the Persians have a friend / Master / in their corner... The Tsar!

So, if the GCC wishes to hold itself together and the Arab League is tasked to help address that wish, then they better do more in the next two days than give hollow speeches and send their wives to shop!

The world is moving faster by the second and the complications of governance are becoming more of a challenge with each passing day.

The Arab League needs to find their nitch and they need to find it quickly.

And finally... just how much money can Saudi spend to solve the Qatar  problem...oh ya.. and who will they spend it on?

THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND A SHOT DOWN SYRIAN FIGHTER?

Had a great question asked of me today.

Does the Ukrainian crisis have any link to the downing of the Syrian jet?

I had to think about it for a few minutes before I realized it was a great question.

Has the theory of applying pressure to the Tsar somewhere other than in the Ukraine come into play?

Does tension in one area of the world lead to tension in other locations?

Actually, my opinion is the answer is probably twofold.

1.  Yes; others are often embolden to take actions they may not typcally take when they believe the rest of the world is "distracted".

2.  Erdogan truly needs a "distraction"!

If you have followed my post for the past few years, you know my opinion of the man I call Egodan!

Things have not been going well for him over the past year and the decay of his support along with the increased cunningness of his adversaries has made life difficult at best.

This weeks disastrous comments about TWITER and other social media networks were not just irrational, but they were amazingly stupid!

As I was reading Egodan's comments about the Syrian fighter event, I was stunned to see his comment about "flying over his land".

" His land".... Not the Turkish people's land....not the airspace of his nation, but "his land"!

Did Egodan decide that his train wreck of a week need an immediate distraction?

My bet is he did.

Has the crisis in the Ukraine given people like Egodan the perception wild actions can be taken when the world seems distracted by lost jetliners and Europe Bear Watching?

Yep...

What is really dangerous is the fact that Egodan is most likely not the only two-bit Thug who is now more tempted than ever to leverage a distracted world.. Insert... Hezbollah here!

Again; shy of the Tsar not launching another "rescue mission" in the Ukraine, I will be following one of my favorite topics for the next two days or so.... The so called... Arab League!!!!

What a Circus this meeting is going to be!

HOW TO "DEAL" WITH THE NEW TSAR / PUTIN?

Over the course of the past few months, it's been more than interesting to talk to friends and others about the events in the Ukraine and more importantly the rise of the new Tsar, but someone finally asked the question I've been waiting for; "how would you deal with him"?

Well...... given someone finally asked..... here ya go!!!!

Just about every conscious member of the Simi informed world knows the engine behind the revitalized Russia is fuel!!

The Master Plan set by the new Tsar was simplistic and as such nobody in the political... cocktail drinking social elite club seem to have a clue what was taking place or worse yet....didn't care!

By the way, in many part of the world they have believed for years the "West" would sell the guns to the very people that will kill them!

How is it that the left leaning Europe could possibly believe the Great Russian Empire was not planning the whole time to have Western Europe "addicted" to the fuels of Mother Russia?

History is an excellent teacher, but only if one pays attention in class!

Ok, let me move on.

So the plan was to rebuild the Russian economy based on fuel needs in Europe and at the same time, modernize a section of the Russian military that would allow it to gain respect in the world once again....Does anyone remember the "Big Red Machine".... well.. It's not as big and it's not as modern as they would like, but it's in the hands of a man that is not afraid to use it and that makes it much larger than it appears.

What to do?

For weeks now the battle cry in the US, by one party that is, is to export as much fuel as possible, thus reducing the market demand for Mother Russia's products.

At face value this sounds logical and would even bring value to the US economy, but a few facts remain.

One; the Russian fuel sent to Europe is still in demand in other parts of the world.

Two; the process of executing such a plan takes time; and yes I am aware of the fact that even the announcement of such a plan would impact the market price...umm.... all market prices...think about it.

Three; The Tsar may have anticipated this, although I doubt it, and the short term impact of him cutting off key lines to Western Europe would be dramatic and that is a real threat....one that he has executed before.

So, at face value, the idea of the US doing what it could do better than anyone out there, produce fuel, is a plausible course of action, but one that is full of risk.

Side note: I won't go into why this is not going to happen anytime  soon because.... well... it's just too aggravating to think about right now.

If it sounds like, "My Plan", is the same one that has been on all the talk shows for the past few weeks, then here is my twist!

Europe has to announce the plan first!

If the EU would stand up with one voice, something that will not happen until Mother Russia is "securing the safety of Russians in Poland or Bulgaria ect...ect..., and announce the EU is starting a ten year plan to end the import of Russian fuels and is doing so with the help of it's new partners in the Middle East....yep.. the Tsar may yet regret slapping the Saudi's face over Syria, the message would have just as much impact as a US announcement if not more.

Short answer; Europe has to take the first step!

The US is no longer in the position to run to the rescue of Europe!

Times have changed!

PS: I'm heading back to the topic of the Middle East for a few days starting tomorrow; unless the Tsar needs to rescue more Russian in the Ukraine!

JIHADIS... CRIMEA.... AND THE TSAR... JUST LIKE I SAID.       

If you search my postings for the word Tatars, you will see my comments from a two weeks ago on the pending threat of Jihadis entering the Ukrainian / Crimean event.

It turns out, the "Nafir" was announced just about the same time as my posting.

It also seems the age old saying of, " The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is also going to hold true, at least for now!

The pending alliance between Pravy Sektor and the radicals who will link up with the Tatars is probably a forgone conclusion.

The question becomes, did the Tsar and his planners anticipate this?

Can the Tsar use this as the predictable excuse to move further into the Ukraine?

His countries track record of dealing with such groups is less than stellar and all one has to do is look towards the Northern Caucasus to see my point.

If the Russians did build this scenario into their Master Plan, then the potential Tatar key players have long been Identified and when you are "identified" in Russia.. well we all know what that means.... There is no water boarding in Russia!!

That would lead me to ask one basic question!

Did any of the key members of the Tatars "disappear" prior to the actions in Crimea?

How long before we witness the first signs of " The resistance" in Crimea?

How will the Russians react?

Once again, we are back to my comment on how the Tsar, try as he may, cannot control every aspect of this crisis.

He may feel confident on controlling the West's actions, but the smaller, more radical Crazy Eddies... that is far different story.

Oh ya.. and if these Crazy   Eddie groups turn out to be Sunni......you can guess who the Tsar is going to blame for supporting them?

Hint.. Who did he blame in Libya?

UKRAINE AND THE ESCALATION OF "COUNTER MOVES".

Russia states it may change it's involvement in the Iranian Nuclear Program?

Israel has it's largest air operations in Syria to date?

Serbs hint at the issue of secessionism?

Who was it that said one of the most dangerous outcomes of the Ukrainian event would be Second / Third Orders of Effect.... The Law of Unintended Consequences?

I always hate to say, " I told you so"... but... " I told you so"!!!!

Here is the bad news.

These three actions are more than likely only the beginning of the Ukrainian fallout!

Why... there was even talk of Orthodox nations needing to come together!!!

Where have we heard that before....hint.... think 1854!

 While all of this was taking place, I couldn't help but notice the leadership of the US was in Eastern Europe and more or less....drawing "redlines" again!!!!

If you have three or four redlines that have been trampled out in front of you......do you really think the next "redline" is going to have any impact at all?

Is the message; "ok....this time we really...really mean it"?

An as for those countries where these new redline type of statements were made... take a guess what they think.... at least in private.

If I had to grasp for some example of minor success, I would wish the Israeli strike into Syria would be an example of the West letting the Tsar know not everything is going to go his way.

Here is the problem, I don't believe that to be the case...not at all!!!!

My theory is the reason we witnessed the largest air strike into Syria since the beginning of the conflict based upon an even more pressing problem for the West.

Israel's rapidly depleting trust in Western support.

In my opinion, the message was clear; " we are not the West".... We will not step backwards from a threat"!

What the IDF accomplished was to not only put Assad on notice, but Hezbollah as well.

It would be more than foolish for Assad to be convinced by the Tsar or the Persians that he can act like the Tsar and Israel will act like the West.

What is working for the Tsar could prove to be disastrous for Assad and his Puppet Master's in Tehran.

By the end of the day, one fact stands clear.

Where this is all heading is not just up to the President of the United States and the Tsar.

That is how the game was played in the "old" Cold War.

In this new version... many players have the will and capability to change the playbook and that makes this a far more dangerous Cold War than in the past.

CRIMEA AND CONFLICT.. IT CHANGED EUROPE ONCE BEFORE!

In 1853, England, France and the Ottoman Empire wanted no part of a large scale war.

On the other hand, Russia did; and with that........Europe went to war.

It couldn't happen again right?

I mean, it's the 21st century and everyone knows a regional conflict is bad for the economy and simply beyond the civilized beliefs of all the people in the region!

It simply can't happen.....right?

So, what does happen when one side decides they are willing to fight and the other side or sides just really doesn't want to?

Well, historically two things happen.

First, the side or sides that don't want to fight give ground on just about every issue that is placed on the table; usually one at a time, systematically with each "negotiated" topic a "sign" the conflict is going to be avoided.

Mr. Chamberlain comes to mind.

Yes, I am on record with my opinion that the Tsar doesn't want a regional war over the issue of the Ukraine, but what he wants and what he doesn't want can get lost in the emotions of the moment or overcome by "events".

What of an event such as a Ukrainian unit firing on a Russian detachment with losses on both sides?

What's the "plan" to keep that "event" from escalating?

What is the plan if after such an event; the Russian units crush the Ukrainian unit / units responsible for the "event"?

You see, the historical patterns of conflict have never really deviated from the simple truth that when one side commits to conflict the other side / sides / really have no choice!

In 1853 the British wanted no part of a total war with Russia and thus they opted for a limited conflict confined to the Red Sea and mostly Crimea.

It was a conflict that was to be "limited" in it's impact of Europe and by the time it was over , the stage was set for WWI and thus leading to the complete imbalance of the entire Middle East / Ottoman Empire!

The Crimean war of 1854 gave us more than the Charge of the Light Brigade and a modern modeling of military logistics.

The Crimean war gave the world an unbalanced Europe and cultural fragmentations that were compounded by the First World War to the point we sit were we are today with a Middle East designed by military Engineers.

As stated last night the Tsar only thinks he knows the outcome of the events taking place in the Ukraine.

He ether is confident of his Mater Plan or he doesn't care what ramifications may come.

His words on Tuesday were spoken not just to his "Comrades" in Moscow.

His "intent" may finally be coming to the surface.

Ignore those you don't respect and no longer fear.

Push Russia to the forefront and if the price is a "limited conflict" then so be it.

Remember... the British wish 1854 to be nothing more than a "limited conflict".

One side... willing if not wishing to fight and the other... floundering with even the concept of conflict.

I'm not sure how many Billionaires the West can "sanction" but my guess is the next real threat will have to have more than sanctions attached.

SANCTIONS ... "MORE THAN BUSH  IN 2008"!!!!ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Ok,  as I predicted, the "vote" took place and nothing really happened.

I say nothing really happened simply because, to the Tsar's people the so called sanctions announced today in the US and Europe.... well... they amounted to nothing.

What I was stunned by was the argument by some in the US that President Bush didn't even execute sanctions against Russia for the actions in Georgia in 2008!!!

Really...It's been over five years... How much longer does the current US administration continue to compare what does and doesn't do with the Bush years?

As I said last week, the backers of the Tsar are as financially safe now as they were before the crisis in the Ukraine started and that explains the lackadaisical response today.

Having said that, let's take a look at what the current "perception" environment most likely is in Europe, not to mention other parts of the world.

If you were in... let's say...Poland.... and you heard the actions taken by the European Union and the US today, what comfort level would it give you?

How about if you were not pro Russian and you lived in Moldova?

What would be your gut feeling about support from the US or the EU if you lived somewhere that use to have a Soviet flag flying on your land?

When you heard how the US could increase fuel exports to pressure the Tsar in the one area he worries about... fuel profits.... and at the end of the discussion you heard absolutely nothing about this increased action taking place..... what would you think?

If you were a Muslim Tatar in the Crimea; after today's results.. who would you start contemplating turning to?

If you lived in the part of Europe; soon to be all of Europe, that felt most threatened by the new Tsar's hunger for power, how confident would you be in your "independent" future?

Ok, here comes my next question.

Just how serious is the Tsar about physically controlling Europe... all of Europe?

Is that what he really wants?

Does he want the Russian flag flying in Berlin.... Paris...?

Well, if we were talking about anyone other than Mr. Putin, I would quickly answer no!

Having said that, I am still convinced that is not the Tsars goal!

So; just how big of a threat is this more forwardly aggressive Putin?

It's a very hard question to give a definitive answer to, but my gut tells me the hype is growing larger than the intent.

The world media loves a story and the world of social media is truly an unregulated rumor machine.

It would be easy to say, "we will all wake up tomorrow and the world will mostly likely be just the same as it has been for years"!

Here is the problem with the, ' I'm not worried about it" camp!

Although the Tsar and his followers have a vision of what the new Russia will look like, the path of implementation will do as it has always done.... create second and third order effects....

Ah yes... If you know me, you know I have drifted into one of my favorite topics;
" The Law of Unintended Consequences"!!!!!

Putin had and has a "plan"..

The world has and will react... overreact!

Key parts of the world will under react.. ( insert the word 'sanctions here)!

Under reaction will lead to have hazard over reaction based upon internal political pressure...In the West.. everyone has to get reelected and if you are seen as "weak".. then your odds go way....way .... down!!!

So, it's like this.

Putin's plan probably doesn't call for the Russian flag in Berlin... at least I not at this time!

Making money and gaining respect... those are the key goals of the new Tsar.. my bet!!

The trouble is... his actions will set into motion other events...even in other parts of the world... that have absolutely nothing to do with his original plan.

And that is the future... that we all must fear....

Things will not be the same after the events of the Ukraine..... just as they have not been the same after the events of the Arab Spring.. Just ask the GCC....

Putin knows where he wanted this all to end up, but does he realize as much as he would like to think other wise... he doesn't control the entire process?

It's the historical downfall of methodical Tyrants.

BEFORE THE UKRAINE BURNS.. LETS GO BACK TO THE GCC ISSUES!

Yesterday, I stated the only way the events of the Crimean referindum would pull me away from addressing the issues surounding the GCC was if the Russians took the next step in their Master Plan in the Ukraine.

Well, if you listened to the Ukrainian spokesman from Kiev today, you might believe that next phase was underway.

The stories of Russian troop movements into key towns that support critical infrastructure support to the Crimean started popping up today, but nobody is really sure how much of this is "hype" and how much of this is fact.

Again, pictures are worth a thousand words and the pictures of Russian air assets in key border towns seem to be unavailable.... at least right now.

So, lets see what tomorrow brings to the world's table and we shall move on from there.

Now, back to the topic worthy of discussion, at least for now; the GCC and why it's under pressure.

Several times over the past two or three years, I've mentioned the issue of the failing relationship between the GCC leaders and the "West / US".

As I was reading the attached story tonight,  a very well written piece by the way, I convinced myself the time had come to once again comment on the consequences of what obviously seems to be the new US policy towards the Middle East.

Again, the simple truth of the matter is, the GCC is continuing to lose confidence in the relationships with the US and the West.

As this confidence slides, the comfort level of survival slides proportionately!

Those who have always been seen as somewhat on the fence are now being identified as potential enemies.

Is the rift between Qatar and the Saudi government for real?

You bet it is!

Is this "change" the direct result of the changed US policy towards the Middle East?

Is this "rift" a byproduct of the ongoing paranoia brought on by the Arab Spring.. an Arab Spring that was supported by the West / US?

Yep!

 What the world has witnessed last week was more than a fracture surfacing in the GCC.

What the world witnessed last week was the destabilization of the GCC at a time when the stability of the GCC could be fare more destructive than in the past.

Yes, several of the GCC members have had their differences in the past, but this is not the 70s and this is not about bragging rights.

The balance of power in the Middle East is faltering and the policies of the West / US are doing little to stabilize the pending crisis.

Yes the situation in the Ukraine is dangerous and yes it could lead to rising tensions between old enemies, but other regions of the world and the events taking place there cannot be overlooked and what took place last week with the GCC is a dangerous reminder of that truth.

Again and again, the effects of a decisive leader in the region / the US /  changing it's course and doing so with what appears to be little coordination with "old friends" is having an impact that many will not be able to predict.

I may very well go back to addressing the events of the Ukraine by this time tomorrow, but what is taking place in the Middle East must be addressed.

A weakened, destabilized and fractured GCC will be a prime target of the Persians and a aggressive Tsar who sees everything going his way.

"Nothing will really change".

If that is the thought process of those who should be listening, then we all better be ready for other "changes" that will seem to come right out of the clear blue sky.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/539078-saudi-moves

THE UKRAINE AND THE FEVER PITCHED.. WHAT IF'S?

As much as I would like to speak to the issue of the ongoing disturbance in the force called the GCC...  I will end up spending one more night on the Ukrainian issue before I just sit back to watch what happens after this Sunday.

I promises all my followers who cover the Middle East, I will get back to the topic of the GCC on Saturday.... barring of course a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

Ok, I've heard just about every talking head I think could possibly fit their way on to the theater now know as modern day news media and their "opinions" of what is going to happen with the pending Crimean referendum.

Here is what is going to happen.

The vote will be to join, in the near future not right away...something the Tsar's people demanded would be placed in the verbiage of the victory speech... the Russian federation.

The announcement will not be recognized by the current government in Kiev and it will not be recognized by the West.

Moscow will announce they understand the concerns of the Crimean people and will begin the "process" to find a " workable solution with all parties".

More Russian troops will move into the Crimean.

The more radical side of the Tatars will begin to organize their "resistance".. even thought the Tsar had their leader in a meeting asking him to go along with the Russian plan.

The West will used worlds like, "outrageous.... unacceptable.... unrecognized.... ect...ect..". and in the end...doing absolutely nothing.. physically.

The current government of the Ukraine will announce the do not recognize the referendum results, but will do little to physically react to it.

                                                                                                                   

And the Tsar... Oh yes..... the Tsar.... Well.... He will look to his key staff and quietly say, "lets move on to the next phase now"!

So, Sunday's vote will pass.... the war of words will be full steam and may overtake, finally after a week, the mystery flight in Asia......

But, the simple fact is, nothing will change... not unless the Russian decide to take the Master Plan to the next phase or the Tatars are far more prepared to create disruption than most give them credit for.

And you see... it's for that exact reason, by Saturday night, I will move back to the topic that I truly wish to address and that is the GCC!

Until then, keep listening to the talking heads on the media if you have absolutely nothing else to do with your time.

As for me...... I'm going to play HALO.. yep old school... and get ready to talk about the shift in the Middle East everyone is overlooking....

See you all on Saturday! Night that is:)

UKRAINE'S "NATIONAL GUARD" ? WHAT IS THE REAL REASON?

Last week, I spoke to the issue of how the Ukrainian military might be more divided than many realized and how the ousted President may have insured the Military would not follow new leadership that is simply based upon protest in Kiev.

Again and again I have reminded everyone just how detailed the planning process by the Russians may have been and how anticipating having to split the Ukrainian military to insure it was not combat effective was most likely a priority of effort.

Continue this concept by considering how reluctant the new government would be to even hint to the outside world there was dissension amongst the ranks of the Ukrainian military?

Yet, if the new leadership truly had evidence or a strong perception of this being true, then the question of forming a "new defense force" might just be logical.

Short version of this question!

Is the development of the new Ukrainian National Guard an indication the Ukrainian military may be more divided, thus ineffective, than anticipated?

As much credit as I have given the Russian military planning process, I'm not sold on the idea they anticipated a formal National Guard realignment.

In a Chess game where the new government and the West have been losing almost every move, this National Guard concept may be the first indication of a offensive victory.

Now, I say that, but you can bet the Russian reaction to the National Guard announcement will sound something like this; "we do not recognize a formal alignment of Fascist groups into a military organization".

So, does this National Guard concept indicate trouble in the Ukrainian military forces and their questionable loyalty to the new government in Kiev?

My opinion is yes; it means exactly that.

As to the tactical capabilities of this new concept, I would suggest we wait to see who makes up these new units?

If they are bits and pieces of existing units, then I think we have our answer.

Will this new concept be capable of defending large portions of Ukrainian land?

It depends on what they are trying to defend against.

On the other hand, if the rumors of Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border are true, and I believe they are, then this new National Guard concept will be nothing more than a prime example of a too little and too late.

My bet is, we shall see sooner than we think.