ASSAD USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ANNOUNCED.. FINALLY!!!

Well, I was going to head back to the topic of Turkey, but the announcement on Assad's use of chemical weapons changed all of that!

Ok, first things first!

Why now?

That is the question everyone is going to ask, well, the ones that care!

Why did the US break this announcement now?

Now, some are going to say, " its a distraction for the NSA scandal or the IRS scandal"!

We all recognize governments often use "distractions" when they feel they are in turbulent waters with their own citizenship, but I'm not convinced that is the issue this time around.

Let me put it this way; does anyone think this could have anything to do with the pending attack on Aleppo and the results that could have for the Sunni Rebels?

Is Assad gaining the upper hand in his civil war about him or is the whole Syrian conflict about the region and the future of who runs it?

I know my opinion!

If you were a Sunni Rebel member and you were digging in to fight in Aleppo, how much would your attitude change if someone announced the US had declared Assad had officially crossed the Red Line?

What level of "hope" might you gain back?

Ok, it's obvious this "announcement" is far from a un-timed, uncoordinated scientifically  backed "discovery"!

Lets drive past the issue of why the announcement was made and get to what I consider the more important question.

What next?

Here is an important rule of governments making international impacting "announcements", the other side gets a chance to react!

Anticipating those possible reactions is part of the detailed work of government planning.

If we assume the US deliberated in great detail over taking this dramatic step, and it is a dramatic one, then what possible reactions did it create Courses of Action / COA's / for?

We could play, "what if" for hours on this topic, so let's stick to the "Who" and avoid the "What" for a day or two.

Here is my list of "who" is going to have something to  say and then have something to react with.

Assad:

Words.... and more words.. as he stands by for his Master's to give him his next set of instructions.

The Persians:

Words... as they stand by and wait for "guidance" from their "Big Brother"!!

Hezbollah:

Words... and the extreme worry they have been sold down the river by the Persians.

The Tsar: 

If we assume the US has talked to the Russian about this announcement prior to making it, then we have to assume they ether agreed or disagreed.

If they disagreed, what will be the reaction?

If they agreed, what will the Tsar's message to the Persians be?

Bottom line; understanding this announcement is going to have implications for the battle of Aleppo is a given.

The saga of Syria and in reality the Sunni / Shia Civil War just took a turn.

What direction and with what implications, we will have to see.

A blinding flash of the obvious just took place, but then again, timing is always the key in international politics.

You can bet on one thing.

Mr Egodan is more than happy to see this dramatic event take place just a day or two before he may have to drop the hammer on his own people.

Everyone loves a distraction at the right point in time!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22899289

THE PENDING BATTLE FOR ALEPPO..  A TRAP NEEDS A TRAP  !

So, what has changed for Assad?

Why have his forces been successful in a conflict they have been losing for two years?

Lets list the major reasons and then dive into why Aleppo may bring this short wining streak to a dramatic end.

I've mentioned this several time in the past few months, but the input of Hezbollah forces has had a significant impact on Assad's ability to go on the offence.

The other danger is the amount of experience Hezbollah is gaining from this operation as well....something the IDF is not overlooking.

Open support from Iran and Russia, and I don't mean verbal!

The disunity of the Syrian resistance has proven to be more than harmful to their cause.

The apparent change of heart by Western supporters, and event that is still taking place ever sense the comment about Support to AQ...... note in history books... STUPID on the Sunni's part...

Along with this rift in the Western unity to support or not support the anti Assad forces is the ever growing fear of civil war in Lebanon.

All of the above issues are vital to the shift of momentum in Syria, but one other issue has to be addressed.

If you watched how the city of Qusayr was attacked, you will notice a dramatic change in tactics for Assad's forces.

Up until now, even when artillery and air strikes were utilized, there remained some consideration for " collateral damage".

That consideration is gone!

Syrian actions now are much more to the liking of the Persian Masters, total, kinetic warfare!

Add to that the predictable, yet tragic mistake by the Sunni Rebels to truly believe they could step out into the open and fight a truly kinetic fight with Assad's forces.

This shift in both of their tactics spelled disaster for the Sunni forces.

So, when you put all of these issues into one big bowl, you come up with a recipe for defeat for the Sunni Rebels, at least for now!

Now, if things weren't going bad enough for the Sunni Rebels, now the Turkish support process could be in real trouble.

Egodan's actions have Turkey more than distracted.

If all of this is the case, then is it any wonder the Persians and their hand puppet Assad is tempted to go for the jugular?

Aleppo!!!! Is that really the key to victory for Assad?

Simply put, I believe the pending assault on Aleppo is yet another trap and Assad and his Persian Masters are falling right into it!

Look at the map of Syria.

How far is it from Qusayr to Aleppo?

What has be bypassed?

Homs!!!!

Now, many times in military history Commanders have made the conscious decision to "bypass" a stronghold in order to reach deep into their enemies rear; thus going for a killing blow!

I believe this is the theory Assad's handlers are taking.

Is Homs and the area around Homs so secure for the Syrian forces that they can afford to drive right passed them and set up a siege of Aleppo?

Are the sure and if so why?

Did Hezbollah Scouts give them the " all is clear"?

Scotts only see what the enemy is foolish enough to let them see!!!!

Did they fight their way to Aleppo?

If not, why not???  ( I bet someone is asking the question.)

Ok, let me wrap this up and get back to Turkey on Thursday's post.

In my opinion, the trap for the Sunni Rebels was the combined effort to take Damascus.

Assad's forces let them concentrate their efforts and forces, build their confidence with a few minor victories near the city and then they  close, they sprung the trap!!!

The Persians sent in Hezbollah and at the same time the switch to total kenotic combat was executed on the Sunni Rebel's rear.... Qusayr!

The battlefield results were all but a given.

But now!!!!

Now, in my opinion, the Sunni trap may very well be set.

Aleppo!!

Aleppo is NOT Qusayr!!!

Assad's forces and Hezbollah must move far north.. far away from supporting units.

They must bypass Homs and what ever forces they think ran back into Lebanon or Turkey.

When Assad's forces feel they are ready to move on Aleppo, the Sunni trap may spring!

The attack on Damascus from the South!!

The Attack from the area around Homs!

And finally, the support of a few "others" .... GCC and Europe, namely in the form of key weapon systems with perhaps even a few "experts" from the GCC!!!

What could make this possible Sunni Rebel counter trap execute with devastating results?

Concentrated effort to kill Hezbollah units!!!

In the history of close order battle, if the elite units are seen as failing, the panic of the common fighters, in this case Assad's forces, will crumble!!

If the Sunni Rebels hand the Hezbollah fighters devastating losses in and around Aleppo or Homs or the "Rear Guard" Hezbollah has most likely left in or near Damascus or even better yet.... in Lebanon.... then Assad's forces may be in far more trouble than he ever dreamed.

Ok!

Back to Turkey, for that issue is about to boil and the battle of Aleppo is probably a few days away yet, especially if Assad or his Persian Master's smell a trap!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/06/2013612144125191128.html

ERDOGAN DIVING INTO THE ABYSS???

As little as two days ago, most of the "talking heads" were sticking to their predictions Turkey would weather this protest storm and Egodan's administration was in no real danger of collapse.

Well, that was two days ago and I have to tell you, many of those talking heads have begun to go silent or they are quickly adding the Turkish chapter to their new book on the Middle East... ( Insert stab here!!!).

So, what has changed in the past two days?

Easy answer, Egodan has successfully taken exactly the wrong move in dealing with the Terrorist... Trouble Makers...ect..ect.. he just keeps adding categories to the list of names.

Today's move into Taksim Square was all but predictable given the mindset of Turkey's leader.

What was also predictable today was the controlled media, something Egodan has accomplished in the past ten years, went into full swing painting the government as just trying to protect Turkey's image!

I must admit, I loved how the government offered to "meet with the protesters"!

Meeting them with gas and clubs...well... I guess that's one definition of "meeting"!

An "Olive Branch".. to beat the protesters with!!!

So, is Turkey on the road to a actual civil crisis?

This weekend will tell the story.

When Egodan sends his "supporters" to the streets and the Soccer Club hooligans come out to meet them, that will start the next phase in this crisis and you can bet Egodan will do everything in his power to stoke the flames; although he won't realize he's doing it!

Oh, by the way, play close attention to the comments, or the lack there of, from the Turkish military.

That will be yet another indicator as to what direction is heading.

All of this may not take place to this weekend and that gives me time to comment on the other vital story in the region.

Assad's assault on Eleppo appears to have begun and it will not go as planned.

I will switch over to this topic before going back to Turkey and that will happen by Friday night.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/world/europe/disputed-square-in-istanbul-turkey.html?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065&_r=0

TURKEY AND ERDOGA'S. THE CRISIS DEEPENS!

The Middle East is simply full of events worthy of further conversation, but no issue in the near future has more propensity for danger than the one know growing in Turkey!

From the very first day of the current crisis in Turkey, many regional observers came to the same conclusion; if Egodan ( remember... my nickname for him) overreacts, the violence in Turkey could take on a whole new level.

One particular issue was referenced more than just about any other and that had to do with Egodan's supporters.

It was and has been a dire warning that he seems to, as predicted by some of us, completely ignored.

" If he calls for his 'supporters' to turn to the streets, there could trouble on a national scale"!!!

Well, apparently, that is exactly what he is calling for and that in it's self is simply unbelievable.

Now, I and many of those like me should have expected this egomaniac to do exactly what we all warned he must avoid.

But, now that he has crossed what many perceive to be the real Red Line for Turkey, it may be time to think ahead to what course of action might take place when his  supporters take to the streets.

Of all the issues we could review on this topic, perhaps none is as important as the one dealing with the Soccer Clubs!

If you know anything about these movements in Turkey, then you know what the odds are of the streets of Ankara and Istanbul becoming extremely violent.

These groups are skilled in the art of confronting the Police and you will see them in full swing if this pro Egodan event takes place; that is if Egodan doesn't have their leadership rounded up all this coming week... I bet it's already underway!!!

That leads to the next question, one that I have my own opinion on, and that is the issue of the Turkish Military!

Who has done more damage to the Turkish military in the past ten years than anyone in Turkey's modern history?

Yep!!! Egodan!!!

How bad can things become when these groups meet on the streets of Ankara and Istanbul?

My hunch is over the course of the next few days, we will start to see the warning signs.

One thing is a given!

No matter how bad it gets, Assad and his Persian Masters will bask in the pending crisis.

The good new is, if there is going to be any "good news", there is still time for someone to knock some sense into Egodan!!!

I know... The odds of that happening are slim to none!!

By late this week, Turkey could be the major news story and maybe, just maybe, the next victim of Tunisian Virus!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2013/06/20136972552978418.html

ERDOGAN " EGODAN" ... FULL SPEED AHEAD.. JUST LIKE I THOUGHT!!

Two nights ago I commented Egodan had a better than 50/ 50 chance of completely botching the act of de-escalation.

Well, I think I will move those odds to 90/10 now!

As we witnessed today, the talk of "outsiders" is back in his vocabulary and that posses the question!

Is there any ounce of truth to what he is saying?

I would be the first to admit he has his share of "outside" enemies, both ones he knows of and one's he may only speculate over.

Would Assad and his Persian Masters love to see Turkey destabilized?

Most likely the answer is yes to some degree.

As has been the case since the start of the conflict in Syria, Assad welcomes anything that takes the attention off of his plight.

As for the Persians; with elections less than two weeks away and the growing fear of civil unrest, the concept of the world watching the streets of Istanbul burning while the Iranian Government Thugs beat their people into voting the way they are expected to, well, that would be  a welcomed outcome from Tehran's view.

Witnessing a Muslim Brotherhood supporting government like Egodan's slipping a few notches would most likely bring a few smiles to the faces of the GCC leadership.

With all of this said, does that equate into any of them actually being  responsible for the troubles in Turkey?

Probably not!

That honor goes strictly to Egodan!

Here is the problem or should I say, here are the two problems.

Perception!

That dirty little word I always seem to come back to when talking about the Middle East.

Paranoia!

So, mix perception with paranoia and you have the makings a Turkish meltdown.

Egodan's perception that his "enemies" are drumming up this revolt for the sake of " keeping Turkey from achieving their place in the world", can easily lead to his government taking actions that ignite the real fires.

The ability of those around him, those few he actually trust, to keep his level of paranoia from over fueling his "Perceptions" is almost assuredly limited.

So, I go back to my point about the percentages of failure.

A level headed leader with strong listening skills could find a way clear of this event, but then again, if Turkey had such a leader, they would be in the pending crisis to start.

Finally:

Egodan has one thing in common with his old friend Assad.

He is praying for a distraction and perhaps a big one!

Lebanon and it's pending crisis; that is probably high on Egodan's wish list right about now.

without a " distraction" closer and closer Egodan will head to the edge!!!

Funny.... now days... .so many leaders in the world always seem to be looking for a "distraction".

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=110722

SO.. QUSAYR BATTLE ENDS??????  NOW WHAT?????

So, the Rebels, Terrorist, take your pick, have been pushed out of Qusayr?

Yes, it was all the talk today, but the intelligent conversations on what it means or more importantly, what could it lead to.......well... that never seem to take place today!

Lets take a quick shot at this in order to get back to the issue of Turkey on Friday.

Ok, If the Sunni fighters have suffered a true tactical defeat, one that was bound to happen given their decision to turn into a regularly fighting force, we have to ask the question, what are they going to do about it?

First off, as I've been saying for several weeks now, the target of opportunity is going to be Shia / Hezbollah's support in Lebanon.

By the way, the tactic of attacking a border outpost right on the Israeli line, knowing all along the Syrian regular military would be forced to respond with overwhelming force........ well... that was a stroke of extremely risky genius..

Think about it.

The Sunni fighters forced the Syrian regular military to engage in close order combat right up on the Israeli border knowing the IDF would only tolerate such actions for a limited time.

If the gamble was to get the IDF to react to the Syrian regular army events, it could have lead to actions that would have swept the issue of Qusayr right off the table.

Luckily, for all of us, the IDF didn't take the bait.

Ok, back to the options for the Sunni fighters.

Striking Hezbollah's "base" is going to be the focus of Sunni operations perhaps for months to come and Lebanon's government is virtually powerless to stop it.

As a matter of fact, Lebanon's military will have its hands full just dealing with Tripoli, not to mention car bombs and gun battles in Beirut.

With all the talk of supply lines now being cut from Lebanon to the Sunni fighters, you would think they are done for...

Take a look at a map...

Notice what other countries border with Syria?

Do you get the picture?

Ok, here is my third and final point on this supposed disaster for the Sunni side of the Civil War.

Taking a objective is only have the battle.

Once you take something, especially in bad guy territory, you have to have the ability to hold it.

In this case Assad, or should I say Hezbollah, not only has to hold the town, they have to convince the people, the ones that are left, it's ok to try and salvage your day to day life!

Hezbollah has the advantage now and that is helping Assad hope for his future, but the reality is, Hezbollah has never been a force of prolonged combat.

Lets see where they are after a year of sustained losses.

Lets see how their leadership begins to deal with IEDs in Tripoli, Bekaa Valley and even Beirut.

When the bodies of the young Hezbollah fighters start to come home from Homs and Aleppo, how will Hezbollah leadership explain they are defending Shia towns in Syria's North?

Yes, the victory of this one battle goes to Assad, but the price that is being paid is the combat effectiveness of Iran's top Proxy / non Iranian / fighters.... Hezbollah.

It's all fun and glorious right now.... it's the nature of young men in love with the thrill of battle!

In a few months, when their homes back in Lebanon are the scenes of endless street battles and car bombs, then what?

As the song goes, " The Thrill is Gone"!!!!

ERDOGAN ( EGODAN) GETS "ONE UPPED" BY ASSAD!!!

Well, yesterday I commented it would be more than interesting to see how Mr Egodan continues to respond to the events in Turkey.

What became very clear today was yet another similarity  between his government and the falling dictatorships of Egypt, Tunisia ect...ect..  The state controlled media.

Not only is the story dying a thousand deaths at the hands of the Turkish Pres, it's obvious  there truly are no problems other than a simple misunderstanding over a few trees and everyone needs to go home!!!

Ok, does anyone think that is going to work?

Yep... of course not!!!

Is Egodan in trouble of losing power?

Not yet, but he has ample time to screw things up much worse than he already has.

Off to the next point, and I must admit it's one I find amusing.

So, just how mad do you think Egodan is over Assad getting the opportunity to say, " Why don't you practice what you preach"????

I wouldn't want to be in the same room with this egomaniac when someone tells him what the Syrian press is putting out, much less the Iranian rags!!!

Lets talk about what might take place  if things do happen to get worse for Mr Egodan.... I.E... he continues to blow it!!

We've seen the hint of where he is willing to take this event over the weekend, when he thought things really could get out of control.

" Foreign support.... Those against Turkey becoming a real power.....ect....ect.."

As I said yesterday, this sounds more than familiar and many in the Middle Eastern media were quick to pick up it. 

That's an important issue for one simple reason, it's an indicator to Mr Egodan's government how little "play" this excuse will have if they have to  keep with such a theme.

Let's make this real simple.

Turkey has a chance to escape at least this round of civil discontent, but only if Mr Egodan doesn't blow it.

Here is the problem....getting him to shut up and getting him to not start pointing fingers is going to be nearly impossible.

It's for that reason I think this event, although perhaps just being "round one", has a better chance than most are giving it of really turning into a problem for the Turkish government.

Mr Ergodan is not a compromiser and simply doesn't have the defusing skills of someone like Mr Morsi in Egypt.

Mr Ergodan is a hothead and a Bully and those are  not the characteristics of someone who can talk there way out of a conflict.

I will continue to keep an eye on Turkey for the next few days to see if the ambers reignite the next forest fire, but the topic of Syria deserves a follow up and for that reason I will drift back that direction next; unless of course the Turkish Bully decides to do something stupid!!!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/assad-erdogan-riots.html

TURKEY. WAS IT THE TREES ARE THE BOOZE????

Ok, I've been away from the daily inputs since Friday when the whole event in Turkey took place for one simple reason.

I've been trying to figure out just what is taking place, why and most importantly; what does it mean?

Let's look at those three basic questions.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TURKEY?

The most commonly asked question continues to be, "is this the Turkish Spring"?

The answer is more than complex, but my hunch is it's way too early to tell.

Erdogan is flying down the road that several leaders have traveled since the early days of Tunisia!

His increasing drumbeat response of, "these actions are sponsored by 'outsiders', is rumbling like a three year old echo!!!

Now, everyone knows Erdogan has an ego second to none and his ability to talk down his nose to everyone around him has a ten year track record.

If he is really in trouble, the killing wound of arrogance simply wont be that surprising to those who know him.

Today's move by the Unions was most likely unanticipated by the Turkish government and their response to this commitment will tell us the real story.

Next Question:

WHY?

You know, sometimes when you are in power for too long and for too long everything goes the way you demand it, the breaking point comes at the least expected moment and typically with little warning.

Does anyone really believe the "Trees" in a park is or was the issue?

Really????

The fact of the matter is, when enough people are reaching the breaking point, but they just don't have the nerve jump first, it takes someone else's actions to get the game started.

This is exactly what happened.

Nobody set themselves on fire, not yet that is, but the anger has been building and Erdogan's ego simply didn't let him believe it; I still don't think he believes it!!!!!

Last week, just prior to this crisis starting I was reading about the new Alcohol Laws for Turkey.

I remember saying to myself, I bet this gets the people into the streets!

Well, trees or no trees.... I think the Alcohol crackdown was the real breaking point.

Like every good "revolt" once it gets underway, it's hard to gage just where it will go and how large it will become.

The anger built up in the people of Turkey is the fuel and the more fuel there is, the more the chances are the protest will grow and sustain themselves; it's the simple math of civil unrest.

Third Question:

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Simply put, is Erdogan's government in trouble?

As I said earlier, it's a little early to tell, but the next few days are more than critical.

His leaving the country right in the middle of this crisis was a real gamble, one that once again shows his arrogance.....

For a person who has been in power for over ten years and has spent a great deal of time driving his country towards the religious baseline, his reactions are somewhat strange.

Is there Erdogan Fatigue in Turkey?

Yep!!!

Is the youth of Turkey ready for covered women and the closure of night clubs?

Have you ever been to Istanbul.... at night???

There is your answer.

Ok, one of the reasons I've been off the net for the past few days is simply because I've been trying to figure out how Egodan ( get it????) is going to react to this potential disaster for his government.

I've resurfaced today to start the process of predictive analysis  and over the next few days I will try to paint a picture of where Egodan ( my new name for him) is heading.

This will not only be more than interesting, but it's going to signal a brand new chapter in the Soap Opera called the Middle East....one that was not predicted.

That's right.. What is taking place in Turkey was unanticipated, but not to everyone and that is what Egodan will try and play off of if he has to save his job.

You will see what I mean over the next few days..

Stay in touch.. this is more than interesting.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Its-neither-Zuccotti-nor-Tahrir-its-Taksim-315481