Sunday, March 10, 2013

























HEZBOLLAH / JABHAT AL-NUSRA... IT'S MORE THAN THAT!!

 Attached is a great article that, in my opinion, misses the most important theory as to why this conflict is going to take place.

The concept that both sides of this pending fight have a "Master Plan" as to when and how this event will take place gives, in my opinion, far too much credit to both.

In reality, the true issue is the simple fact that no one has the ability to prevent it from taking place.

Forget the concept of a Master Plan for a NUSRA ..HEZBOLLAH fight and think more along the lines of small, factional groups on the Sunni side simply provoking localized clashes with little "Master Planning" from any key leadership.

Does Iran want a conflict to take place right now that would spell Civil War for Lebanon?

Does Saudi or Egypt or the West?

Would any of these isolate, nearly street level units, have the mindset to listen to anyone's guidance?


Here is the reality!!

The lawless landscape of Syria has become a modern day setting for " Mad Max" than anyone wants to admit.

Inadvertent clashes spinning into a regional conflict; that's the fear and has been for almost two years.  

Now, are "regional players" ready for such an event?

Does Iran have a plan for a Lebanon on fire?

Does Egypt..... Turkey.... Jordan.... the GCC????

Don't count on it.

The ability to control anything going on in or around Syria becomes more and more distant with each passing day.

Lebanon is facing a calamity they are nearly powerless to prevent..

Jordan will watch in a complete state of horror as Lebanon falls into  turmoil all the while imploring the GCC members to prevent an event they have no chance or perhaps even desire to stop!!

It's sounds like a broken record to almost all of us who watch the region, but the truth will not go away.

A Sunni / Shia conflict inside of Lebanon is nearly unavoidable.

The other fact that remains unchanged, is the issue of what are the regional players willing and more importantly able to do once this travesty takes place?

Last but certainly not least..... what is Israel willing to put up with?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/jabhat-al-nusra-hezbollah-confrontation.html



No comments:

Post a Comment