ARAFAT'S DEATH.. THE STORY CONTINUES, OR DOES IT?

If you have followed my post on the issue of Mr Arafat's death and the money his family sliced away from the Palestinian movement.. oh.. that's another story for another time.. you would know my opinion of Fatah and Hamas struggles is the center of gravity for this event.

                   

Once again, to put it simply; could Israel have had Arafat killed?

Yes.. 

Did Israel want him dead at the time in history when he died?

Before you answer that question with a mindless "yes", think about who would have benefited from his death the most and who did?

Did his widow turn in the money they had skimmed / swindled / take your pick,   off the movement.. .woops.. forgot.. wrong time for that story....

So this new round of scientific testing is over and it looks like the typical PHD / grant funded response we all should expect from academia.... "maybe".... Possibly... .ect.. ect...

Next question:

 Where is the outcry?

Where is the rioting in the streets over these "findings"?

Has anyone even heard the story retold in the past three weeks?

Nope, but perhaps in the Barbershops of the West Bank it might be a topic for a moment or two.

So, why  is there no real outcry on this earth shattering news?

I have my theory!

Those who are in the middle of a power struggle over the leadership of the Palestinian movement are too occupied to care.

Secondly; it's far too dangerous to make the Israelis go on the defensive over the issue.

Both Hamas and Fatah know full well the Israeli government could probably place the finger on Arafat's own followers and even it that was not true, they could make the case anyway!

Arafat is too far removed from the current problems of the region.. the Arabs / Persians... Nukes... Civil War in Syria.. ect... ect... oh ya... the Ottomans...

His ghost is not going to lead the Palestinian cause into the final stage of victory!

What was the real story behind the death of JFK... Nasser... Elvis..... ?

Who knows and to the youth of the West Bank and Gaza and to those Palestinians fighting in Syria in a religious Civil War...... who cares!!

Arafat was dug up, literally, too late to do the Palestinians any good.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/so-how-did-jaradat-really-die-and-does.html

NASRALLAH SPEAKS... BUT WHO CARES?

Nobody is surprised that Mr Nasrallah raised his head out of his hole and gave yet another fire and brimstone rant about War in the region.

So, the question once again becomes, who is his targeted audience?

The people of the GCC?

The West?

If his message was, "you better sign the deal with Iran or else", who was the message for?

Now, typically his threats are nothing more than motivational sound bites for his loyal followers in Lebanon, but this time around he may have actually had other intentions.

Here is my next question and perhaps one of his loyal follower can provide the answer.

Does he really think it will have one once of impact of the outcome of the Iranian talks?

Of course he knows it won't, so then ask the question of why?

Why did he give it?

Was he obligated  to say something on the holiday of Ashura?

Yep, that is the most likely reason he popped up!

Well, it's for that reason no one really cares what he said today.

Poor Mr Nasrallah.. He and his follower know he will never have a voice on when or where the fight with Israel will take place.

His phone will ring... the Persians will give him his orders and the Arab Muslim will go back to work killing Arab Muslims.....much like he is doing day by day in Syria.

His voice means nothing to his Masters and he knows it!

The Persians and their unbalanced, uneasy ally the Tsar pull the strings that make Mr Nasrallah dance ... and we all know it.

But, today....today.. he was once again allowed to sound important.. and his 15 min of fame for this week are over!

As soon as this empty statement was finished, he went back to his task at hand.... doing the bidding of the Persians and hiding his Shia dead as they are sent back from the battlefields of Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Nasrallah-Failure-to-strike-deal-with-Iran-will-result-in-regional-war-331673

THE BATTLE FOR ALEPPO.. AN UPDATE... IF ONE IS REALLY NEEDED!

Ok, so rumor, Turkish rumors that is, are flying over the Battle for Aleppo and the areas around it.

You know I have said for over a year now that a true conflict for the status of Aleppo is a Bridge Too Far for the Assad Puppet!

Hezbollah is not capable of tipping the balance of such a scaled force on force conflict as Aleppo, regardless of what their overweight blow hard leader spurts out at one his raging press conferences.

Now, it's true the victories of the Tsar over the called off attack on Assad have embolden the Shia fighters and it's also true the Kurds have drawn more than their share of attention away from the Sunni units pushing for victory in Syria.

But, the facts remain the same.

The supporters of Assad do not have the ability to take or hold Aleppo and they know it.

Those who understand the art of conflict realize the actions taking place in Aleppo are equivalent to a continuing counterstrike against the enemies stronghold; a stronghold that was long ago conceded to the Rebels.

Two years ago, I made the argument that Assad had to do far more than win decisive battles on his own land.

What was true at the beginning of the Syrian Civil War remains true today.

The government under siege must not only defeat the enemy, they must return a since of order / normalcy to the land.

So tell me; how Does Assad give his people, what is left of them, a perception they are going to go back to a normal life?

Tell me how you paint that picture when a city such as Aleppo, the equivalent of Syria's New York City, is a smoldering pile of concrete dust?

What is ever going to be "normal" again about no water, limited power and not a window

left in the city?

Who is going to fund an infrastructure program of the magnitude required in Syria if Assad and his Bosses battle to a stalemate?

Iran?  

Really?

the Tsar?

He will sell them new tanks... oil... and rockets.. but he could care not a damn about doors, windows and sewer plants... no money there!

So once again, let's face reality.

Assad and his Puppet Masters lost the conflict for Syria the day it started.

Syria will never again be what it was as long as the Assad / Shia / Persian / Russian Alliance is in power.

 Are the Persians worried about the power in Aleppo?

Please!

Assad's tanks could drive up and down the streets of Aleppo for months and the city will never be normal again... not under his rule!!

The only people who will ever be interested in rebuilding anything in Syria are those who make money rebuilding things..

Yep.. the Capitalist!!

The GCC.... EU.. ect...ect..

The Battle for Eleppo...... What does it really matter?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122625

KHAMENEI; " WE SHOULD NOT TRUST AN ENEMY WHO SMILES"!!!!

Truer words have never been said and it's more than ironic Khamenei spoke them!

I've attached two interesting stories that relate to a topic I've addressed on several occasions. 

Here is the question much of the world is trying to find the real answer to.

Just what is Iran attempting to achieve?

A real change with it's longstanding adversaries... with the exception of Israel?

Are they buying time with some great deception plan?

Like many others around me, I've tried to find a definitive answer to this pressing issue, but it's simply too complicated and far too important to speculate to the point of standing on a conclusion.

For the sake of argument, let's skip over determining the real answer of Iran's actions and instead, let's concentrate on what risk Iran is actually taking.

As I've done several times in the past, I would ask that we once again play the, "What if" game!

Ok; here how it goes this time.

What if:

What if the, "enemy that smiles" approach taken by the Iran is the real answer?

What is the real risk the Iranian Leader is taking?

Is it the threat of the West not taking the bait?

Is it the threat the Israelis may finally convince themselves they must go to war "alone"?

PS.. Here is my reminder... they will not be "alone"... even if the US / West abandons them... think GCC... and you are on the right track.

Is the real threat of this "enemy that smiles" plan an internal threat?

BINGO!

If you said yes, you may very well win the prize.

What if:

What if the Iranian youth didn't realize this whole process was simply a way of buying time?

What if those in Iran who longed for greater freedoms and normality truly believed change was coming to Iran?

If Khamenei is standing knee deep in social unrest gasoline, can he afford to be smoking?

One of the attached stories address Khamenei warning the conservatives in Iran to support Rouhani in his ongoing negotiations.

Really?

Who is he warning?

Yes, there exist factions inside of Iran as there are in any government, but Khamenei warning those who are not in the inner government to not interfere is more confusing than he may have imagined.

What if:

What if the disillusioned  members of Iranian society interpreted Khanenei's warning as a sign the time was right to push for more progressive leadership?

What if:

What if the real threat of playing the "Enemy who smiles" game came from your own society?

Ah yes, the world of Second Order Effects and the  Law of Unintended Consequences, two of my favorite topics, may play large in this smiling game!

The final segment of this month's episode of " the What If Game"!!

What if:

What if Iran's real enemies, Israel and Saudi, believed this smiling game could be leveraged against Mr Khamenei?

He has his distracters in Iran and his enemies know of these distracters.

As we sit here tonight, wonder what Iran is really up to, I will ask this one simple question.

Are those who worry about Iran really fretting over the right question?

In the Chess game called the Middle East, has Khamenei made the right more at the right moment in time?

Sometimes when you think you have "check" .. you end up in "Checkmate"!

Someone call and see if Riyadh and or Jerusalem is playing Chess tonight!

 http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122087

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/518735-iran-arrests-head-of-reformist-daily

EGYPT AND THE COVER OF SYRIA:

Now I realize I've not addressed the issue of Egypt for well over a month now, but I can assure you there remains a great deal to discuss.

As is always the case with me, let me attempt to keep this as unacademic as possible.

It's no mystery the current Egyptian leadership has taken full advantage of the complete distraction that continues in Syria.

Having said that, many Westerners simply don't realize just how neutralized the Muslim Brotherhood has become and if you don't think so, just call their best friend Mr Erdogan in Turkey and ask him!

If we realize the Egyptian leadership has taken advantage of the Syrian crisis, we still have to ask the question, " why hasn't someone cried foul"?

Well, here is my answer.

Who is available to do so?

The GCC is firmly in the corner of the Egyptian government.

The Israelis are ecstatic over the whole situation in Egypt to the point they are allowing the Egyptian military to fly over Gaza.. Just think about that statement for a minute.

The Tsrar!! He is already heading down the road of getting out the military hardware catalog and letting the Egyptian Generals gaze at it like little kids at Christmas time.

The Ottoman then?

Well, yes EgoDan is fuming over the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood, but the fires of Syria are too close to his own house and the Kurds are walking around with buckets full of gasoline!

The Iranians? Nope .... no help there.... The old Sunni / Shia issue regardless of what anyone tries to tell you.

Jordan?

Forget.... the King is happy as happy could be... He may even move on his own MB members before too long... the timing is right..

Lets face facts.

Next week starts the trial of Morsi and a few other of his loyal lapdogs and the Muslim Brotherhood is simply powerless to do anything about it.

The world may watch... the world may even say a few encouraging words, but the bottom-line is the MB experiment in Egypt has failed, at least for years to come.

Oh ya.

Nobody and I mean nobody is happier than the Royal families of the GCC.

SIDE NOTE:

Starting Friday.. I am going to introduce a new site that talks to the issue of Mexico.

Why am I doing this, well... I will tell you it's more important than most of you think.

If you could do me a favor, please pass the word.. What I have to say about the events and future of Mexico is something I am more and more passionate about.

It will be

 coldansviewpointmexico.blogspot.com

HEZBOLLAH AND THE FUTURE'S BLOCK.. A TICKET TO NOWHERE!

Two stories here and both draw us to the same conclusion; Lebanon is deadlocked.

First of, you can always tell when Nesrallah has no logical explanation for his actions; he simply points his finger towards Israel and starts babbling like a five year old!

As of the issue of forming a working government in Lebanon, well that is more than a pipe dream right now.

The Future's block has placed an impossible requirement on Hezbollah with the comment they must withdraw from Syria before any talk of a coalition government for Lebanon.

Everyone, including the Future Party, knows full well this is not going to happen.

Now, I  must admit, the concept of watching politicians stand around and point fingers at each other is common place, but Lebanon's issues are far more dangerous than most.

In a time of true social and political crisis, a nation can ill afford to have little unity much less absolutely no unity!

Most of us realize the fuse of Lebanon is burned down to the casing of the bomb and yet the so called leaders are still deadlocked in a death gaze battle.

Throughout history, when governance is unable to lead, someone or some group will fill the void.

In Lebanon's case that void is about to be filled by a whole gaggle of clans and groups throughout the nation and we all know where that leads.

Time and time again, I have made the statement that as Lebanon goes, so goes the future of the region.

Somehow the parties involved in the proxy war between the Persians and the Arabs, and notice how this Arab / Persian split is leveraged in the story of the Future's Block meeting, have managed to or been unable to light the fires for the whole region.

Battle lines continue to be drawn, even while the fools at the UN still plan on holding court for the STL process..

Does anyone remember the STL issue?

Persians forcing violence on Arabs in Lebanon and Syria.,.... that's not just the message delivered by the Block members.

This script is scripted ... if you catch my drift!

The writers of this pending tragedy live to the South and are preoccupied with the horror of Women driving cars!!!!

Really!!

Oh ya.... the Royals worry about cracks in the government armor... the armor that keeps the radicals content and the sake of the oppressed public.

Is anyone really trying to figure out a way to salvage the Middle East?

If you happen to find someone, please send me their name!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Oct-30/236250-future-no-partnership-until-hezbollah-leaves-syria.ashx#axzz2jAHdLIcp

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Nasrallah-blames-Israel-for-17000-Lebanese-missing-persons-330082

GENEVA-2... WHAT IS THE POINT?

Ok, the who's who of who is coming and who is not coming to the maybe on maybe off Geneva 2 conference is not near as interesting as the wondering over why this meeting is taking place and who is it really for?

Is the Arab League shaping the process?

Is the Tsar?

Is the West?

How about the Turks...

The GCC????

Yep, you guessed it... what in the world is going on here and what is the purpose?

Oh and by the way... if the real battle for  Qalamoun is underway by the time this Geneva cocktail party / soap opera starts, you can bet the date will be pushed back yet again.

Here is the next question.

Is Geneva 2 about Syria or is it about the Tsar and his desire to once again out maneuver the West?

Is it about the GCC making a point on what they are willing to do in their proxy war with the Persians?

Is it a stepping stone to some nuclear agreement with Iran?

Is it about the so called Syrian government in exile... you know.. the ones sitting in Turkey and London drinking mix drinks and attending meetings with people who would not have given them the time of day two years ago?

Is anyone really going to show up and talk about ending the fighting in Syria?

Here is my bet and it's in two parts.

First off, the event is going to be overtaken by the Qalamoun issue unless Assad's Master in Tehran gets the phone call from the Tsar to hold off until after the Dog and Pony show in Geneva.

Secondly; you should assume the GCC / Saudi  will also have a vote on Geneva 2 taking place.

If the Russians blew them off last month stacked on top of the US change of heart, then my bet is the Saudis are not in any frame of mind that leads to the West or the Tsar looking like a leader in Geneva.

Lets face facts... .nobody expect anything out of Geneva 2...3 ..4...5...ect....ect....

The true fighters in Syria are not coming to the party and the money behind them is in no mood to bend to the pressure of the West or the Tsar.

Qalamoun is the issue and the end state is Hezbollah pulled back into a Lebanon cast into the fires of Civil War.

I will end tonight with yet another classic example of an applicable adage.

" Money talks and Bullsh-- walks".. Hence.. the GCC and those showing up to nap at Geneva 2.

HEZBOLLAH AND ORDERS OF THEIR PERSIAN MASTERS!

So, how dare the Saudi leadership "interfere" in Lebanese political matters?

The nerve of those "meddlers" trying to keep Hezbollah from forcing their will on the people of Lebanon!

Yep, as outrageous as this statement may sound, Hezbollah leadership and loyal followers completely believe this is a valid complaint.

Now, are the Saudis  actually influencing events in Lebanon?

Silly question!

If you can find me someone in the region who doesn't understand the proxy fight that is taking place between Saudi and Iran, then I would submit that name for the next round of Dancing with the Stars!!!

Whenever I hear Hezbollah complaining about how they are being treated or in this case not being allowed to run Lebanon, I have to laugh!

Let me tell you what Hezbollah's Master does realize.

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.... Insert Saudi / GCC and Israel here!!!!

Then pending battle of Lebanon is a price Hezbollah can ill afford to pay.

The peaceful existence of Hezbllah's villages and towns are at stake  and with each passing day, their loyal supporters see the doom just over the horizon.

I would be willing to bet you the tension amongst Hezbollah's families, supporters is to the point the ultimate blame for the destruction about to rain down on them is going to end on the doorstep of leadership.... .Hezbollah leadership!!!

I've said this time and time again and here we go again.....

Hezbollah is about to bring pain to the people of Lebanon and all for the sake of severing their Persian Masters!

Arab's are killing Arabs and the Persians could care less!

For days an epic battle along the border of Lebanon and Syria has occupied just about every conversation in the region.

This pending battle is going to prove to be disastrous for current Hezbollah leadership and hiding in Syria may end up being a safer option than sleeping in Lebanon.

Shia Arabs are heading to the graves at the control of the Persians and that is a scenario that is not going to last.

As for the Iranians, I would remind them of yet another age old adage; " You can win the Battle and lose the War"!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Oct-28/235992-hezbollah-blames-saudi-arabia-for-deadlock-parliament-paralysis.ashx#axzz2iyXIJLxn

TRIPOLI AND THE PENDING BATTLE OF QALAMOUN :

So, is there a collation between the much anticipated battle of Qalamoun and the conflict now in it's six day in Tripoli?

The short answer is yes, but the reasoning is far more important to comprehend than just this simple answer.

We have talked time and time again about the issue of Saudi  forcing countermoves  in the proxy war with the Persians.

Given it is Friday night, and I have Halo games to play, let me get right to the point.

Saudi and it's Sunni fighters would be foolish to allow Assad and his hired Guns / Hezbollah to dictate the rhythm of the pending battle for Qalamoun.

This concept is so repugnant, we must assume it's not going to happen; hence, the issue of Tripoli!

The fires that are starting in Tripoli are not new, but this time around even the Lebanese leadership fears the outcome will be different; along with the UN if you've been reading the regional news today!

So, are the Hezbollah forces preparing for a combined conflict in Lebanon?

Yes.

Is it Tripoli that will be the center of the fighting in Lebanon?

No.

Tripoli will be a battle of small somewhat well armed militia groups, but the preparation by Hezbollah has a more important objective.

The Bekaa Valley!

Where is the Sunni counter strike going to take place?

Yep...  The Valley!

Will Beirut be spared?

That depends on just how hot the conflict gets.

I will tell you this; as of tonight, the odds of Lebanon sliding into full scale crisis is now higher than at any moment in the Proxy war between the Persians and the Arabs...

Yes... That is what is now taking place in the region!

It is no longer about Syria and the people of Syria wishing for greater freedoms; freedoms the defenders of freedom, the West, seem no longer willing to defend.

What we are now witnessing is the beginning of the next phase of the Persian / Shia / Arab Sunni conflict.

Can the Arabs get the Shia Arabs to pull away and turn this conflict into truly what it should become; a battle between the Persians and the Arabs?

Keep you eye on Iraq!

Let's see what true line of loyalty exist!

Religion or Blood!

LEBANON.. ONCE AGAIN THE TALK OF "CIVIL WAR"

Yesterday, I ended my posting by stating we could only hope the people of Lebanon would find the resolve to save their country.

Well, by the end of the today and after reading the linked articles, I'm afraid once again the allure of violence that draws young men like moths to a flame  has  once again taking a firm grip on Lebanon.

What is even more disturbing is the theme coming out of not just Lebanon but Israel and Saudi.... the theme of " Lebanon is in real danger"!

The simple fact that senior leaders of both Saudi and Israel, two countries who have more in common with each passing day, utilized the same sensational title when speaking to the current events in Lebanon.... " Civil War". 

Oh.. by the way.. could someone please tell me what is "Civil" about War?

The storyline on the comments of Yallon are more than sensational, they are confusing!

When you read this article, and I highly recommend that you do so, notice an utterly perplexing possible mindset.

An Israeli Defense Minister talking about Hezbollah being attacked by a world wide movement on their own land, Lebanon; I find that mind boggling.

Now, it's common knowledge the proxy battlefields of the Sunni GCC and the Persians have been set for well over two years now, and it's even more obvious the GCC/ Saudi / understands this battle is no longer even closely supported by the West.

Its also obvious the counter to the Persian / Shia / events in Syria is the developing battlefield of Lebanon.. the home of the Persian proxy force.... Hezbollah.

Do the people of Lebanon realize the GCC / Saudi / is willing to turn their land into the 1980s all over again?

Yes!

Do they have the ability to stop it?

No.

Does Israel understand what is taking place in Lebanon?

Silly question!

For months now, the allegiances in the region have been in flux, but the true epic "Shift" may have officially begun this week when Saudi announced their pending dramatic shift in their relationship with the US.

If you are one of the ones who believes this statement is simply for show, well, you don't know the Saudis!

The Saudi announcement was not pulled out of thin air.

The leader of the GCC did their homework and gave out their guidance to the rest of the GCC prior to this very disturbing statement.

New Alliances are being finalized and key major powers who once kept reckless thoughts and concepts in check have now been moved to the side.

Arab Muslims are killing Arab Muslims on a massive scale in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, so please don't tell me the concept of Egypt, Israel  and Saudi forming a new bond is outrageous.

The Western world has cried to become more independent of " Arab Oil" and the events of the region  for  years now.

Let's face it... the old adage applies here.

" Be careful what you ask for"!

 http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Yaalon-Civil-war-between-Hezbollah-and-Global-Jihad-has-erupted-in-Lebanon-329679

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Elite-Hezbollah-fighters-are-spearheading-battle-in-Syria-IDF-commander-warns-329707

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Oct-25/235724-residents-trapped-as-tripoli-clashes-hit-fifth-day.ashx#axzz2igvo9Lro

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/517150-lebanon-on-the-edge-of-civil-war-saudi-prince-says

THE PENDING BATTLE FOR QALAMOUN

Before I say once again, "I'm back", I must admit, I think it's true this time!

In the past week, I had the privilege to make a new acquaintance with an individual that is a recognized writer and one sharp individual.

So, to my new friend Ted, I have only one request.

Please don't judge my knowledge of the Middle East based upon my... let us say.... writing style!  Be kind and look at the "big picture"... please!

Ok, now to topic of the day, at least from my perspective.

In the past few weeks, a great deal of talk has been circulating over the pending battle for the town of Qalamoun.

If you've been following the Syrian Civil War, then you understand the significance of this location not just from the perspective of supplies to the Sunni Rebels, but to the people of Lebanon in general.

Is this small little town more relivent than other past conflicts throughout Syria?

Yes!

Why?

Ask the people of Lebanon!

For nearly two years now, the peaceful people of Lebanon, and that is most of the population there, have been worried over what real event would trigger a response so important that their country would finally be pulled into the Syrian conflict completely.

So many of the Western "talking heads" have predicted the future of Lebanon it's frankly hard to remember all the different "theories" as to what will happen and when.

So again, why is this pending conflict for Qalamoun different?

Simple; because the people of Lebanon truly believe this battle is the breaking point.

You see, they don't weigh Qalamoun by it's singular importance.

To the Lebanese, Qalamoun is the culmination of a process that has been underway for almost two years.

If that doesn't worry those who are trying desperately to keep Lebanon from the flames of Syria, than all you have to do is look at the statements coming from Hezbollah in the past week.

Nothing is a better indicator of a pending conflict having significant importance than one side of the conflict telling the world how important the event will become.

Hezbollah's statements about the pending defeat of Saudi backed forces, yes they called out the Saudis, in the coming battle is nothing shy of drawing a "redline"..... and we all know what happens when you draw redlines in the Middle East!

As for this calling out of the Saudis, well in my opinion, it's not the brightest move I've seen young members of Hezbollah make.

Young men and their mouths have a tendency to be over played in the region and we can only hope the Hezbollah Puppet masters back in Iran will make the final decision on just how bad Qalamoun becomes.

Sidebar:   With all the talk of the big pending battle of Qalamoun, perhaps the Sunni groups should ask Hezbollah what happened to the "great assault on Aleppo?

Is the taking of Qalamoun the Iran plan for taking the prize.... Aleppo?

If so, that's one poor developed plan... Just ask the Ottomans and their supply lines.

And just how is all this talk being received in the GCC / Saudi?

Unless you've been under a rock for the past few days, you have read or heard the story of the Saudi's announcement of their changing "relationship" with the US.

Things have not gone well for the GCC in the past two months and the statement by Hezbollah that they are going to defeat Saudi supported operations in some decisive battle, well, once again I would go back to my comment about young Arab men and their mouths.

A few weeks ago, all the talk was about the apparent withdraw of Hezbollah forces from the Syrian battlefield....

The intelligent talk centered around why they were moving the units they were and what did it really indicate?

Perhaps we now know!

Perhaps the movement was nothing more than reinforcing the "home front" because they now realized the battle was soon to come to the Motherland... Lebanon!

Is the pending battle for Qalamoun really the next phase of the Syrian conflict?

Here is who I think will have a vote.... the Persians... the Tsar and the GCC / Saudi.

Here is who will not have a vote... the Western world.

If American Exceptionalism  is dead and ridding in the coach section of seating is now where the US sits, then watching a pending crash is probably about all we can do.

Let's just hope the peaceful people of Lebanon continue to hang on and keep their country from sliding into the Abyss.

 https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/516591-kataeb-urges-international-intervention-to-counter-qalamoun-battle

SYRIA... IRAN... HEZBOLLAH... THE TSAR... AND THE BIG PICTURE SNAPSHOT.

It's been more than difficult to keep up with my postings for the past few weeks and I am still trying to get back into a real rhythm and hopefully soon that will happen!!!

Ok, there is a great deal that we could talk about, but in the interest of getting back into a personal rhythm, let's take a look at what I use to call the, "Snapshot" for the region.

Lets start with what I consider one of the most interesting rumors in well over a year; the withdraw of Hezbollah forces from Syria.

Is it true?

Most likely the answer is yes.

Why is it taking place?

Ah... now there is the fascinating part of the story.

If you've followed my opinions of Hezbollah's actions in Syria, you will remember that I considered Hezbollah's movement into the Syrian Civil War as a huge strategic and even a tactical miscalculation.

The tide of the war was not in favor of Assad and his Puppet Masters in Iran pushed one of their most precious resources into the fight in a desperate attempt to save Assad.

If you remember, I said then and I still believe this would lead to Hezbollah's base becoming a prime target for the Sunni fighters and that is exactly what took place.

Not only did it take place, but it continues to take place and my bet is the worst is yet to come for the Hezbollah clans of Lebanon.

Saying the deployment into Syria was unpopular with the Hezbollah supporters was, and still is, an understatement.

What came next for Hezbollah would only make the dicey situation even worse.

Just when Hezbollah and their Persian Masters became convinced the West was finally about to intervene in Syria, the call went out for even a larger deployment of Hezbollah forces; a call that was not well received in Lebanon.

The fact these forces were set to defend against a highly anticipated Sunni counterstrike synchronized with the promised Western strikes made this additional manpower drain of the HomeGaurd in Lebanon somewhat more palatable, but once again, Shia Arab males were being sent into battle not against the dreaded IDF or even the Infidels of the West, but against fellow Muslim Arabs... on Arab land!!!! Think about it!!!

Well, we all know what became of the Western response.

That gets us back up to date on the Hezbollah issue in Syria and it may give us some understanding of what we see taking place.

Could the observed, and trust me, the IDF knows, withdraw of forces from Syria be nothing more than the return of the surge sent for the Western attack?

Most likely!

Is Hezbollah leaving Syria?

I would bet not.

Remember, Assad and the Persian's primary goal has not been reached; the capture of Aleppo!

And that brings us to the next real issue; what is the real status of Assad's campaign to take Sunni strongholds?

Again, if we go back to my comments from months ago, we will see the primary objective of Iran's push in Syria.... the taking of Aleppo!

So, here is the update!

Can Assad and his Masters take Aleppo?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is leaving?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is going to stay?

Yes!

Here is the next phase of the "update".

Has Iran changed it's mined?

Is the survival of Assad the real end-state still?

Have the Persians and the Tsar taken a new course on the issue of Syria?

Again, go back to what I said at the very beginning of the conflict in Syria.

The survival of Assad and his government is based upon one simple factor; the support of the Persians and the Tsar.

Time and time again, I have commented on the lifespan of Assad and the reality he will never know if a "deal" is done to move Syria forward without him.

I was and still may be convinced his use of chemical weapons back in August was based upon his paranoia of his Masters plotting his demise.

In the spirit of keeping this discussion with " Snapshot" framework, let's ask a few simple questions.

Has the "objective" of the Persians and the Tsar changed?

Has it become clear to both of them the battle cannot be won in Syria?

Do they realize they cannot take Aleppo or even protect the land they have retaken; what little that is?

If Assad is no longer seen as the future of Persian and Tsarist plans for Syria, then what is the "plan"?

Did the Tsar take great pleasure in making the West / US / look foolish over the chemical weapons event and more importantly, is he done?

Simply put, has the other side redefined what they are trying to achieve?

Could the answer be found in the highly talked about Iranian Initiative?

Just how close is the Russian / Persian team?

Who really gets to set what the "goals" are?

We know the Tsar needs Sunni fighters tied up somewhere else until after the 2014 Winter Olympics and Syria is the location he has selected.

We know the Iranians are in a full court press to show the "kinder.. more gentler... Persian Empire and we know the world is foaming at the mouth to believe what they seem to be seeing.

As the Western world plays the "good cop... bad cop" game with the Persians, the reality for Israel will not be distracted.

"We will go alone if needed"... That was the message by the Israelis at the UN, but I wonder who was listening!

Ok, it's October 2013 and the fact of the matter is, a Sectarian war is still in full swing with the key players... the GCC and the Persians showing no signs of pulling back.

Hezbollah's movement is in it's own self-interest and I have to wonder how that event is playing out in the Persian Empire.

Does the Middle East remain dangerous?

Yes.

Does the glimmer of "hope" coming from the Persians indicate "light at the end of the tunnel"?

No.

What it does mean is the region grows more and more confusing by the day and those with the ability to figure it all out simply don't exist.

The region is a proxy tool to the Tsar..

The region is the battlefield of the Arab, Persian, Ottoman Empire hopefuls.

To the Israelis, it's just another day of struggle for survival.

To the rest of the world.... well...just keep pumping and it will all just go away!!!

NETANYAHU'S "BLUNT SWORD".

A few days ago, and it's still difficult to be consistent right now, at least for a few more days, the topic was the ramifications of the Syrian chemical events.

For all the scholastic level discussions and all the book writers restless to pen their next chapter, the issue became very simplistic; and it's hard to get paid when you talk with the media simplistically:)

Had the West, more to the point, the US, lost it's ability to "Control / influence" events in the Middle East?

Had the Tsar become the new power broker; a power broker the GCC would now turn to?

Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus...yes.. I will never give up calling it such.... the GCC leaders have had and continue to have one basic fear; the abandonment of Western support!

Are they the only ones with that fear?

No!

We have talked before about the strange bedfellows that can take place, especially in the Middle East.

Go back and "search" this blog and you will find my discussions on the pending relationships between Israel and the GCC / Saudi.

"The Enemy of my Enemy"!!!  Never... Ever forget this saying when you are looking at the Middle East!!!!

But, the Israelis also remember yet another age old saying in the region, "you can feed a Scorpion, but it will still sting you"!

So, what is taking place as a result of the Syrian chemical debacle?

Skipping the subject of the Tsar and his grand designs for the region, lets look at the topic near and dear to Israel.... the Persians!

" A sword which as gone blunt"?

Really?

Does anyone think Rouhani is such a fool as to really believe such an insane statement?

Let's assume he understood the insanity; so why did he say it?

Who was the message to?

His people?

True, the tensions between the Hawks and the so called Moderates is worthy of watching inside Iran.

Was the message for the people of Israel?

I doubt it, but if it was he was only showing his arrogance at his own peril!

Was his statement meant for Western / US / indulgence?

Is this a move to negotiate with the West from position of strength?

Does Rouhani and his Puppet Master truly think their talks with the US are leading to Israel being unable to strike on it's own?

What a catastrophic  miscalculation that would be!

So, what is going on with the Persians?

What lesson / perception did they gain from watching the Syrian chemical episode unfold?

Now, I know the people in the US were very occupied with the drama the media conjured up over the government shutdown and it's obvious the coverage of what Netanyahu presented to the UN had little to no coverage in the West.

Here is what is really interesting.

The words of Israel did not go unnoticed in the Gulf States!

Here is the bottom line:

Did the events of the Syrian chemical event set in motion the path to war between Israel and Iran?

How many times have we looked at the issues of, " the laws of unintended consequences" and how often has the topic of " Second and Third Order Effects" come up in the past two years?

If Rouhani truly believes the IDF is now a "blunt sword", then I would highly recommend he still don his armor and research the dangers of blunt trauma!

    

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Israels-sword-has-gone-blunt-says-Iranian-President-Rouhani-327686

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF INACTION????

Well, it's been rather obvious I've been away from my opinion postings for over two weeks now, but I'm happy to say I'm back and I've picked a great topic to come back to!

I'm not going to waste your time or my time talking about the events leading up to the drive for Western intervention in Syria.

My last post addressed my most simplistic point, and if you notice, I posted it before the Tsar made his move on the whole issue.

The short answer is this... The Tsar scores a victory, but what will be his reward?

Ok, back to what I'm convinced is now a far more important topic.

The news today, outside the US, on the topic of Syria was more than fascinating and in fact, what was announced today was not only a long time in the making, but it was also completely predictable by those who know the region.

If you look at some of my older postings on events in Syria you can find time and time again where I spoke to the issue of so called, Leadership in exile members and the real fighting force in Syria... the Rebels.

As a reminder, the age old saying has not changed; "One man's freedom fighter is another man's revolutionary/ Terrorist.

Let's cut to the chase.

Many of us have known for over a year now the fighters in Syria were never going to march to the drum of the social elitist living in high-rise condominiums overlooking the streets of capital of Turkey!

Again, as a important reminder, just because you eat dinner and drink fine wine with Western Political power brokers, that doesn't equate into victory on the true battlefields of Syria.

For months, the storyline was all about how the radial fighting groups, most of them fundamentalist, were in a real power struggle with each other and how the Assad regime was going to be able to take advantage of this infighting.

Most of those who came up with this theory were more worried about being paid to say it or write it then they were figuring out if it was actually true!

It was and remains a "picture" the so called leaders, the ones living in the condos taking a bath every night, continues to attempt to sell to the rest of the world.

Are the fighting groups in Syria going to hold hands now and fight as one synchronized organization?

Of course not, but what they are going to do is make it known the appeasement approach taken by the false leaders of the Syrian revolution,  the fine wine club, will not have a say so in what takes place on the ground, door to door in Syria.

If you accept this announcement today, you need to ask yourself, what happened?

What changed?

What event made the "middle of the road" FSA groups jump ship?

Well, do you think they may have lost hope when the great Western assault on Assad and Hezbollah didn't take place?

Do you  think that could have been the proverbial, "straw that broke the Camel's back"?  

What pushed them off the center of the fence, if they were ever really there?

Is this announcement today a byproduct of the failed Western intervention?

Most likely yes!

Now, ask yourself one last question.

Who does this benefit?

Who fills the vacuum?

Who can bee seen as the voice of "reason"... a voice that takes the opponents into the back room and puts a bullet in the back of their heads?

Ah yes.... the TSAR!!!!

As soon as this breakaway announcement was given, perhaps even before, the GCC was hard at work figuring out what needs to be done.

If you live in Iraq or the Hezbollah side of Lebanon....keep your head down...

The GCC knows how to make pull the right strings.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/25/syrian-rebel-groupsslamwesternbackedopposition.html

SYRIA'S WMD "PLAN".. WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE CIVIL WAR?

I'm not going to get into the politics of the incredibly confusing events that have taken place over  the past twenty-four hours, but instead, I will look at what this all might mean to the war in Syria.

If anyone forgot, the country of Syria is still knee deep in a civil war!

Over the past two or three weeks, it seams the daily headlines from the fighting have taken a backseat to the events of the 21st of August.

Needless to say, the forces in support of Assad have been hard at work fortifying their assets in anticipation of the once pending Western strike; a "Western" strike that was to be supported by the GCC if you believe what you read; oh ya... what is the definition of " supported"?

But, with the Assad Team digging in as deep as they can and dispersing as much as possible, it's probably a safe bet the Battle Plans for Aleppo were put on hold, if not disassembled. 

Well, if the pending doom of a Western strike is now less than probable, what does that mean to the Rebels/ Sunni fighters?

Can the Sunni fighters take advantage of the Assad Team while they are still deciding to uncover and regroup everything they hid?

Will the Assad Team start to reassemble the Aleppo Assault Package?

If so, will the Rebels wait?

Ok, here is my point.

When the lack of unified, coordinated "plan" takes hold, the end result is complete confusion on all parts.

What should the Sunni groups do right now?

What does Assad's Team dare to reassemble?

What about the thousands of Hezbollah fighters that mobilized over the past two weeks?

Just how confused are both sides?

Probably just as confused as those who are convinced they need to do something about Syria!!!!!

The Coalition of the Uncoordinated is not linked with the Coalition of the Confused or the Coalition of the Confused!

The only one that seems to have a "plan" is..... yep.... you guessed it.... the Tsar!

So what happens if the long drawn out game of "where are the WMDs" repeats itself?

Does anyone remember how long this game took in Iraq???? About 10 years!

Where did the WMDs move to?

Who has them and how long does it take to even form a team to look for them?

Oh ya, a group of teams that has to look for all the dispersed sights in the middle of a Civil War... We didn't even have to do that in Iraq.

"Here... Here is my 100 tons of weapons.......What... I don't have 1000 tons.. You just want to bomb me"!!!

It seems like this story has been played out before!!!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/russia-to-send-us-syria-plan-on-tuesday-kerry-says