Tuesday, June 26, 2012


















US INTELLIGENCE, "SEES", BUT DO THEY SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE?

It's a fairly safe bet to make the statement a protracted event is going to  take place in Syria when it's already been going over a year and a half!!!!!

All in all, the first article is a nice, safe forecast that really doesn't lead to anything.

It's the next two articles that have my interest.

In the past few months, I have broached the issue of what depths Assad and more importantly Iran would be willing to go to in order to stay in power.

I've covered my opinion of Assad's "Red Lines" for taking Syria into a general war with it's neighbors and the possibility his military commanders might not follow him.

Trust me, it's an issue that weighs heavy on his mind and the minds of the Iranian Puppet Masters, especially after the aircraft defections.

The problem is, the successful Rebel tactics may be forcing Assad's hand.

For months, the Rebels could accomplish little more than simple, hit and run events that gave them just the right amount of video to make good You Tube clips.

That has completely changed and that change may end up taking this crisis to a level not even Assad or Iran wants it to go.

You see, when a group becomes so well organized, disciplined and equipped that they can stand and fight a conventional battle or even better go on the offensive in a conventional fight, then defending force must take the fight to the next level;  a level without fixed wing aircraft given the paranoia of defections.

If you look at the reports coming out of Syria on a daily bases now, you see a dramatic change.

The number of reported destroyed Tanks in the past two weeks is more than alarming to the Syrian Military Leaders.

When armor is vulnerable, infantry must secure it and infantry in the open, on the move, is an easy target; thus the causality numbers for the Syrian military are climbing dramatically.  

Again, an issue the Syrian military leaders are losing sleep over.... what sleep they have been able to get in the past eight months.  Yes.. a very...very fatigued force!!!

Next we must consider a logistic complex that is bleeding almost as fast as the Syrian military.

Technical equipment like tanks, helicopters and large vehicles need maintenance and when do you think these Commander have time to conduct this maintenance?

 Ok, here is the picture I'm trying to paint!

The Syrian military is physically exhausted and morale is  as low as it can possibly get.

On top of the exhaustion and morale issue, you can stack FEAR!!!!

Fear of failure.

Fear of punishment for act you have committed and acts you may not commit; thus fearing both sides of the conflict.

simply put, fear for the future.

Now, put this on top of equipment that is most likely bordering on failure.

What do you have?

I will tell you what you don't have.

You don't have a military that is capable of a conventional war with another nation state  such as Turkey... a NATO member to boot!!!!
Bottom line, if Assad ask his military leaders to launch a conventional war, they must consider if they are even capable of doing so; and at what cost to the nation?

I have a fear of how that scenario might turn out and I only hope the Syrian military Commanders prevent my fear.

I can envision  Syrian Military leaders in conflict with their Iranian handlers.

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