Wednesday, October 3, 2012












FLASH POINT FOR BOTH IRAN AND SYRIA.

Two events took place today that made the news in most of the world with the exception of the US; where all eyes are on the Presidential Debate set for tonight.

One was the exchange of fire between Turkey and Syria.

The other, the far more serious event, was the demonstrations in Tehran.

As excitable as the exchange of fire was between Turkey and Syria, it remains to be seen if this will turn into a true escalating event.

Turkey may use this event to pressure the UN and it's NATO partners into rethinking the "safe zone" issue and some already believe that is what this event really is all about.

Some may think Assad is looking for a "distraction" thinking a limited exchange between Syria and Turkey may pressure "others" to demand a cessation of violence.

I don't buy ether of these stories.

My theory is the rounds fired into Turkey were fired by a unit that is so unprofessional they didn't even realize the repercussions of what they were doing.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply cannot afford the public outcry of not reacting to casualties on their own soil.

Does this mean this event cannot escalate into something far more dangerous?

No, but I don't believe Turkey or even Assad has War on their minds between the two nations.

We shall have to see what takes place in the next 24 hrs to know for sure.

Now, for the real news of the day!

Iran and the dreaded event; the event they have been terrified of for almost two years.

Protest and not just protest by angry College Kids....

For the past few days I have talked to the issue of the impact of the sanctions and how the consequences might very well be more than the West bargained for.

Forcing civil strife in Iran was a foolish goal to begin with and now the age old rule of " law of unintended consequences" could be taking effect.

Iranian leadership's  reaction to these protest of the state of the economy is critical to the overall future of the region.

For days now, they have warned the world they perceived the sanctions as "economic warfare" on the people of Iran.

There is only one way they will frame the protest that started today; it was a Western / US / designed event; one designed to bring about regime change in Iran.

What is Iran willing to do to stop this from growing larger?

How long before the people of Iran see what is taking place and decide now is the time to take to the streets?

Will Iran punish the people of Iran or will they lash out at the ones they believe has brought this upon them?

Yes, two significant events took place today, but the Iranian protest is the one that truly could lead to regional even global consequences.

Months ago, I said if these events came to Iran, Ahmadinejad would become the victim of choice, but that will only buy his Boss a small amount of time if any at all.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

The flaw in the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plan to toss Ahmadinejad to the wolves is the simple fact that the people of Iran will not be satisfied with just one head on the stick.

It will not work!

As of today, Iran's leadership  just became far more desperate than any point in the recent past and there is the real danger!



http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/clashes-reported-in-tehran-as-riot-police-target-money-changers.html?_r=0

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