MEAN WHAT YOU SAY AND SAY WHAT YOU MEAN

Two very clear messages are in this article.

1. Israel will not wait for the West / US / to take action if the time comes.

            Some still don't believe that or as I would say, some still don't want to believe it.

2.  Israel will not allow Assad to arm Israel's enemies if he thinks he is about to lose his     rule.

Both of these comments were not put out there for the consumption of the US or the UN.

They are exactly what they seem to be; warnings to Israel's enemies.

Who is right and who is wrong is not the issue.

Once again, the concept of " Red Lines" is being demonstrated by Barak and Israel.

Could Israel being pulling a failure line from post 9-11???

" You are ether with us or against us"!!

That is how I have heard some of the talking heads interoperate Israel's actions and statements over the past few months.

Those that perceive the message this way need to take a course in comprehension.

The statement is clear...

Israel will do what it needs to do, even the most disastrous  / dangerous things / when the time comes if it must.

As I have said time and time again; I hope the enemies of Israel understand this.

For all the "talk" of standing up to Israel in a war, the region has no military on par with Israel and they all know it.

Again, who is right and who is wrong is lost in the fog of tension.

Barak didn't chose to make these two bold statements today for the fun of it.

He is not trying to boost his standing in the eyes of the Israeli people.

This message was not for the Israeli people.

Those who aspire to destroy Israel know all too well who this message was for.

The people wish to avoid conflict with Israel are running out of options.

To rise up against your own leadership, leadership that is not supported by the people of the land they rule, is a more acceptable act than destroying everything they have for the sake of hate.

Beware of " Chicken Little" mentalities in the region.

Israel is not Chicken Little.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=290012

BAHRAIN JUMPS ON THE HAMAS BANDWAGON???

I just have to wonder what Mr Abbas thinks of all this attention suddenly being given to Hamas.

Strange how the Gulf states are counting on the US and Israel to deal with the real threat to the GCC wealth.. Iran, yet they seem ready to kiss the ring of Hamas!!

I wonder if the GCC leaders remember an old saying from their part of the world.

Just because you feed a Scorpion, that doesn't mean it won't sting you!!!!

Now, some are arguing this is all a ploy by the GCC to try and get Hamas and the Fatah factions to settle their differences, but I simply don't buy that theory.

If that were true, we would see dual meetings...

Again, there is no mention of Mustafa al-Sayyed, visiting Abbas in the West Bank, so how is this an attempt to bring the two factions together?

Hamas, the group that is 90 percent back in the camp of the Muslim Brotherhood; a Brotherhood that invasions tearing down the Royal Families of the GCC.

So, perhaps this is an attempt to "buy" the Hamas love..

If so, the wrong target is being chosen for this point in time.

The most immediate threat to the GCC Royals comes from Tehran and the Shia and the Royals know it.

A strange game is being played out here and as is always the case in the Middle East, nobody knows the second order effects of this game.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-30/193254-bahraini-prince-to-visit-gaza-on-thursday.ashx#axzz2An58S79e

KURDISH  ISSUE  REVISITED.

If you search my site, you will find I have addressed the issue of the Kurds on several occasions and having said that, I'm going to do so one more time.

First off, an issue that is 30 million strong, far larger than the Palestinian issue, is simply not going to go away.

 Much has been written about the Kurds being "paid off" by Assad's regime to not enter the revolt.

Even more has been said about the true fears of Turkey and the issue of the Kurds in Syria and inside Turkey.

So, let me ask a question.

From a simply Kurdish perspective, should they pay the price of being involved in the Sunni, Shia civil war inside Syria?

As they have said, what's in it for them?

Where were the Sunni when the Kurds tried to separate from Iraq at the end of Desert Storm; oh by the way... they did have some Sunni support; just not much was made of it, but the Kurds must admit it happened.

What Arab Clan has made a "stand" for the Kurdish cause?

Now, the argument, and it's a good one, can be made the Kurds have never known freedom under Assad or  Assad's Masters.... the Iranians.

Is there just as much a chance for real freedom if they help with the downfall of Assad?

Will the Islamic Fundamentalist agree to divide a slice of Syria for the sake of Kurdish support?

Has anyone heard such a statement made by the Rebels or the FSA or any other Sunni group fighting Assad?

If the resistance doesn't find a way to "reach out" to the Kurds, then they run the real risk of Assad continuing to play one off against the other.

This issue has so many complicated sidebars, but it is clear the resistance needs the Kurd's support and they cannot afford to allow Assad and Iran to leverage the Kurds against the fight for freedom.

Oh, by the way, if the resistance wants Kurdish support, they need to clearly define what the definition of " Freedom" is!!!

Sharia law and Sunni rule is not the "vision" the Kurds will be looking for.

 http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/07/iran-threatens-iraq-pay-close-attention.html

ONCE AGAIN.. THE QUESTION OF... Whose SIDE ARE THEY ON?

Ok, so, again, Hamas operatives are killed in Syria by Assad's men... who are supported by Iran... who some believe is still supported by Hamas??????

Did Assad's troops know they were Hamas?

Hard to tell who is who when the bullets start flying all around you, but given the area they were in and given the fact Assad's troops know Hamas is in that area.. yep.. go figure.

So, is Hamas supporting Iran as everyone thinks?

If so, why are they fighting Assad's troops?

Confused???

Can Hamas have "slits" based upon bloodlines?

Yep..

Once you kill someone's family members, as Assad's troops did in Deraa, then all localized "deals" are off!

Oh ya.. don't forget Palestinians are Sunni; trust me.. Assad's troops didn't forget.

That leaves some to ask the question, one that is irrelevant in that part of the world. is Hamas Playing both sides on both sides of the fence"?

Who doesn't play on both side of the fence in the Middle East???

If the Hamas, Assad issue gets even close to getting out of control, unfortunately 400 dead doesn't qualify in this conflict, then you can bet Iran will make adjustments to what is going on.

In my opinion, Hamas hasn't been in Iran's "camp" for over a year, but Iran can't allow that fact to become common knowledge.

The tensions in Gaza are not all just Hamas's doing.... and Hamas knows it.

As has been the case for years and years.... the scorecard in the Middle East is simply impossible to keep track of.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=97748

HOW TO LEVERAGE A RELATIONSHIP OF MISTRUST!

The tension between Ahmadinejad and leadership of Khamenei has been a topic of mine on many of occasions.

What I find interesting time and time again, is the Iranian government's inability to hide this obvious split.

The Persian Nationalist and the Islamic Fundamentalist both have visions of Iran's future that simply do not match.

Again, none of this is new to the rest of the world, so why hasn't someone or some group tried to leverage this tension to destabilize Iran?

One issue that has always worried me is the consistent mistake by the West to categories everyone who is in the Middle East as the same pot of Islamic Radicals.

It just makes their lives easier when they refer to everything that goes on in the region as, "Those Arabs" or " Those Muslims"..

For all the talking heads who appear on cable TV you would think someone would hold the theory of playing these two Iranian egomaniacs against each other... or better yet.. you would think someone in the GCC would figure out what it takes to get these two coming to blows.

Now, as I have talked about in the past, Ahmadinejad doesn't own much in the way of military support; practically nothing is the real answer.

But, I still don't give up on my theory that Ahmadinejad could create tension far more than most people realize.

His time grows short and his "keepers" are standing on top of his every move, as this story indicates, but has anyone even tried to take advantage of this complicated conflicted relationship?

Would it work?

Who knows!

The more important question is, why don't we give it a try?

Oh ya.. The sanctions!!!!

Is that a tool under executed in this potential plan?

Someone remind me again... what is the strategic "plan" behind the sanctions?

Does anyone really have a "plan" fro dealing with Iran????

My opinion..... We are missing an opportunity to at least take a shot of disrupting Iran's leadership without having to wage a regional war.

Just my two cents worth.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/2012102223530435716.html

DID SHEIKH HAMAD ALTHANI'S VISIT TO GAZA SPARK A CONFLICT?

The question is a simple one.

Did the Sheikh of Qatar's visit to Gaza spark the current round of fighting?

Perhaps.

I would say it was absolutely a factor that must be weighed into the analysis.

I have a few other questions that, in my opinion, are more important.

Why?

Why now?

Why not the West Bank as well?

Why appear as if Qatar is leaning towards Hamas and not Abbas?

What does Saudi think of this move?

Did they have a vote in the visit?

What are Iran's thoughts on the Qatar visit to Gaza?

And last but not least, did the Sheikh just buy Hamas off to keep them from supporting Iran?

Now.... that is the real question!!! and nobody seems to be asking it.

As for the current exchange of fire between Israel and Hamas and more likely the Islamic Jihadist groups in Gaza, it should calm down quickly; at least let's hope so!

Egypt, and I have said this over and over again, doesn't want a conflict between Hamas and Israel... at least not yet!!!!

I am sure there is a full court press by the Egyptians to calm this series of events down as soon as possible.

As for Hamas, it scored a major victory not only in the region, but over the PA / Fatah / by having this Qatar visit take place.

Qatar, who has been more than ambitious in the region for the past two years, may be showing its value to regional issues by boldly going into Gaza and buying Hamas loyalty.

How much "coordination" took place between Egypt and Qatar and Saudi on this media event is going to need to be reviewed.

I would be willing to bet, the Ottoman's were not part of the planning phase.

So, the exchange of fire between Israel and Gaza / Hamas / Islamic Jihadist / should calm down quickly for no other reason than it was probably not in the Qatari " Plan".

We shall see what Iran thinks of this event.

None of this is being accomplished to favor Iranian interest.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=289141

TIME FOR AN UPDATE ON EGYPT AND its "DEMOCRACY".

Well, it's becoming more and more clear the use of the world "democratic" in Egypt is spelled.... ISLAMIC LAW!

If you remember way back when... I initially framed the Muslim Brotherhood as the slow version of cancer.

If you're not paying attention or you just simply ignore the warning signs, you wake up one day to have the Doctor say, "There is nothing we can do".

That day is still coming for the Western World's relationship with Egypt, but it's still coming.

Not only is the MB slow in its quest to shape the region to its liking, it has no problem deceiving anyone and everyone it needs to in order to achieve this goal.

A point I also made over two years ago.

As the Islamist quickly places the finishing touches to the new Constitution, the next set of, "what a minute.. that isn't what you said a few months ago".... issues will come to the forefront.

Oh ya.. It's about time Jimmy Carter step into the "Home" and watch reruns of Gun Smoke!!!

Don't be surprised if the new Constitution has "changes" to the issues of Women's rights... and Religious freedoms all in the name of " The People".. the crutch the MB leans on when someone questions the MB.

Perhaps it's time we lend a little "support" to those who are willing to make life more difficult for the MB?

That might take a change in leadership in other parts of the world, but that might happen in about two weeks.

At some point in time, the World has to realize the MB is part of the problem and not part of the solution.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-23/192467-egypts-top-court-to-rule-on-constitutional-panel.ashx#axzz2A8ZsKOfN

THE ASSASSINATION OF AL-HASSAN..  WHO...  WHY NOW?

Ok, so much for "conventional wisdom" when it comes to the theory nobody wants to see Lebanon catch on fire.

So, did Assad call for the murder of al-Hassan?

Only if he got the green light from Tehran.

Did Tehran want Hezbollah to take the brunt of the Sunni wrath in Lebanon because of this attack?

NO!

So, would Tehran have sanctioned this attack?

Did someone or some country just execute a key individual in the Special Tribunal of Lebanon case for the UN?

Yep.

Ok, then who would want that to happen?

Hezbollah?

Would Hezbollah conduct this operation without the approval of Tehran?

If so, why?

So far, the "conventional wisdom" on what happened doesn't fit the logic of current events in the region.

Having said that, let me say something that is "unconventional".

If you go back and read some of my post from early this year and even late last year, you will find several occasions where I talked to the issue of Iran and or Russia come to terms with how to out Assad, yet keep control of Syria.

If anyone thinks that ether the Russians or Iran would not turn Assad into a dead man if they knew they would not lose influence in Syria.. then you are wasting your time reading about the region.

If anyone has and still realizes this issue, it's Assad!

If he can't trust the guy who cleans his floors day to day, then how in the world does he trust Tehran or Moscow?

Paranoia has been his middle name for well over a year now and it just gets worse day by day.

So, let's assume for a minute Assad decides that regardless of what Tehran or Moscow wants he gives the orders to turn up the heat on Lebanon; thus further terrifying the whole region.

Again; does this mean he places his own survival ahead of his support from Hezbollah?

It's just hard to accept!

Ok, let's take the other track.

Lets assume Hezbollah and Tehran are involved and dreamt up the whole plot.

Why?

Back to one of my other theories.

Iran is so desperate not to lose Syria and Hezbollah they would rather see Lebanon in flames than to see the Sunni movement succeed in Syria.

Perhaps the threat of social unrest based upon the sanctions has the Iranian leadership so desperate and paranoid they are willing to create the "distraction event" many have feared?

Again, I have a hard time with this logic line.

Tehran has to know killing someone as prominent as al-Hassan in such a dramatic act, one that just smells of 2005, is an act with uncontrollable consequences.

Hezbollah fighting for its life in Lebanon is a Hezbollah that is in no position to conduct operations against Israel in a proxy war set by Iran.

Notice how quickly Hezbollah "condemned" the attack?

Ok.

Back to the primary issue.

Who killed al-Hassen and why?

It's clear there is an argument from both camps.

What's not clear is the repercussions of this murder.

Just because someone or some government anticipated the act as beneficial, that by no means guarantees positive results.

A region living on the edge day by day, is simply not predictable.

Containment of the event is job one for all in the Middle East and the UN.

The call for the current government of Lebanon to step down will probably get louder.

If that government does fall, one supported by Hezbollah, then Lebanon could turn into a Syrian replica... .something that is probably already happening.

Again, this is an event where the region teeters for the next several days.

Will the situation calm down to some acceptable level or will Lebanon cook off?

Can someone find a way to blame Israel? I bet they already have.

I don't have the answer just yet, but If Iran was not at the center of this attack, Tehran is in full scale panic mode.

A lost Hezbollah is a lost Iran government.

How many more fires can the peace seeking people of the region and the rest of the world put out?

Don't look now, but I smell smoke in Kuwait and Bahrain.. again!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/2012102113542122371.html

UAVs AND HEZBOLLAH...... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've stayed away from this story for several days now in the hope of seeing what transpires as a result of this event.

Several issues to talk about here, so let me take a hack at this.

For starters lets all realize this was yet another Iranian generated event.

So, why did it take place?

My opinion of Iran needing as many distractions as it can possibly generate given its economic crisis and the pending fall of Assad in Syria; yet all the time knowing they must avoid open warfare at a time when Israel will strike them first and the hardest is the overall reason events like this take place.

Lebanon knows all too well Iran is going to make it the target of Israel actions if at all possible, yet the current Lebanese government is powerless, for now, to prevent Hezbollah from pushing them around.

From Hezbollah's foxhole, they get the chance to make the age old statement of, "why can Israel do something and we can't"?

Now, the UN is very aware of Israel's commitment to protecting itself and remember part of that process is insuring everyone in the region understands Israel's willingness to do so!... Salesmanship is key to Israeli survival...

It's my opinion this all falls into the category of the continuous Chess Game being played out in the region; a Chess game with more than two players all playing at one time and not always waiting for their "turn".

What's going to happen?

Good question!

My bet is as long as these UAV's continue to show up approaching Israeli airspace, they will continue to be shot down.

The fist shot missed and the IAF has made the technical adjustment to insure that doesn't happen again.

I also would predict the Israelis will not wait for the next UAV to enter Israeli airspace or it might be taken out as soon as it does.

Not sure how many of these Iran wants to waste on Hezbollah and I'm not convinced Nasrallah will continue to see the value in being the fall guy for the events.

It could be he and Hezbollah will not be the "fall guy" for the next one.

The blame line might go directly to Iran and I'm not sure what the consequences of that might be.

I do know this, Israel continues to understand Iran's desire for Israel to take action against Lebanon or Gaza on a massive scale, but I'm beginning to think Iran's warped leadership doesn't comprehend no Arab nation, Hezbollah and Hamas.. who would fight anyway, are not Arab nations, is going to side with Iran.

To put it simply, pushing Israel into attacking Arabs like Lebanon is a hard sell to the Arabs, especially by a Persian country.

Can it happen?

Yes..

Will Lebanon be the only one to suffer?

NO!

Iran will "suffer" and will probably suffer first.

That Israeli plan is far more complicated than Iran realizes.

Can Israel and Arab countries, "come to terms" to avoid conflict in an Iranian war?

I bet the Generals in Iran know the answer:)

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=288440

ANOTHER TWIST TO THE IRANIAN SANCTIONS PLAN?

The idea that sanctions would create social stress in Iran has been greeted with skeptical questions from some time now.

Sanctions tend to hurt those who have nothing to do with what a government is being punished for, especially in a dictatorship such as Iran.

But here comes an interesting "twist".

Could it be the sanctions were designed to do just what this article suggest is taking place?

Could it be the sanctions are designed, at least in part, to created stress between two factions inside the government that already exist?

The anti Ahmadinejad movement has been known by all for several years.

Perhaps the friction caused by economic hardship is designed to split a government that depends on being united?

Perhaps this is not about Students and Middle Class working folks, but about rival political camps that are looking to climb to the top?

A Government divided is something that becomes very difficult to sick the Secret Police Thugs on.

It's easy to beat up protesting students, but what about political party members at each other's throat?

Ok, even if this was the case, I have to ask the question.

What is the desired outcome?

If we get political party factions fighting, does that mean the Qud force will no longer back the religious leader??

Does Khamenei lose his grip on power if the political underlings continue to fight?

Khamenei knows all too well what this end fighting can lead to and he is already well aware of the fact the sanctions are creating pressure on the day to day politics of Iran.

So, perhaps there is yet another possibility of what the world is trying to accomplish with the sanctions, but I still have to wonder... what is the end state?

What is it that the "plan" is trying to accomplish?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=288227

IRAN "BACKS" TURKEY'S BORDER ISSUES????

Ok, as the saying goes in the US, "If you believe that, I have some Swampland in Nevada I can sell you".

I have to wonder what Erdogan thought of this "announcement" by Ahmadinejad?

I know one thing for sure; he believes it about as much as I do!!!!!

Now, the two of them do have a common issue and that is a Kurdish independence movement that is not going to go away.

Would the Kurd issue be enough for Ahmadinejad to strike a deal with Erdogan?

Would the collapsing status of Ahmadinejad inside his own country make him reach out to Turkey?

The answer to both of these questions is no!!

Here is what I think The Mad Carpet Rider is up to.

An age old ploy is being put into motion here.

If Iran openly announces its support for Turkey on the issue of "Territorial Integrity", it has a stronger position than normal when it defends Syria's right for the same.

So, to position the issue of Assad's " Rights", Iran pays homage to Turkey.

Now the question becomes, what does this get Iran or Assad?

My bet is, when the time comes, it gets both of them absolutely  nothing.

A nice photo op and a few kind words will not change a thing between the two countries.

Turkey has a "vision" of what needs to happen with Assad and Iran has one that is 180 degrees out.

Bottom line; nice try, but nothing changes.... nothing at all.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=97201

 THE TAKING OF AN AIRBASE.. ONE ...TWO...THREE...

Months ago, I reviewed the topic of countering the Syrian air superiority without concept of a no fly zone or even air support.

It appears the Rebels are perfecting the skill craft of attacking airbases with each passing week.

It's clear the Rebels have realized its one thing to attack and temporally neutralize an airfield, but trying to keep it is still a bridge too far.

Fuel farms, runway surfaces and weapons storage areas are soft targets for an airbase and the impact of consistently rebuilding or resupplying after short violent attacks is taxing in more ways than one.

The logistical drain on keeping a base that comes under attack, constantly, functional is an operational victory by itself.

For every unit assigned to defend critical airbases, that is one less unit moving into combat operations.

So, not only are the Rebels impacting Assad's ability to flying offensive operations over

Their heads, they are creating a drain on an ever depleting logistical process.

Yes, Airfield attacks are just another example of, " A death by a thousand cuts"!

My concern, being a guy who spent a large part of his life fighting this type of an event, is realizing the al-Qaida operatives are learned a very valuable lesson in Syria.

It's nearly impossible to defeat a superior Air Force in the Air, but it's not impossible to strike them where they live.

Yep.. It worries me!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/syria-rebels-air-defense-base_n_1960773.html

AH ..YES... SOMETIMES IT'S JUST HARD TO SHUT UP!!!

Back in the days when the Muslim Brotherhood stated they would not seek the Presidency in Egypt, remember.. it's ok to lie to the Infidel... I spoke to the issue of what I believed the MB ultimate goal truly was.. what I called their " Master Plan".

This statement by Badie simply confirms my theory.

The "End State" for the MB is the capture of Jerusalem.

The difference was the road to success had other areas that needed to fall first.

All "local Infidels" must be dealt with before the grand prize is set into motion and that includes neutralizing the Shia movement.

Now, we all know if Morsi takes any heat of this comment from one of his "Partners", he will simply say, " in the new Egypt, all people are free to speak their mind!", or something close to that.

He will then try and remind the world, remember.. the greater the lie, the more often you must tell it... he is no longer a member of the MB... Ya... Right!!!

Why this Badie was allowed to say such a potentially damaging statement at this point in time is an interesting issue by itself.

So many events are taking place in the region, it's nearly impossible to keep track of what event is linked to what other event.

Turkey's move on Russia and Assad yesterday is still a puzzling event and now such threatening words out of Egypt...... well... that does nothing but turn up the heat for everyone.

If I were " BB" I would simply tweet Badie, if he knows how to work a phone, and tell him the day Badie walks the streets of Jerusalem under his control is the day he will see nothing but glass made from the sand he stands on.

http://www.france24.com/en/20121011-egypts-brotherhood-heads-urged-jihad-jerusalem

HOW SIGNIFICANT OF AN EVENT IS THIS?

Well, first and foremost, you have to know Tsar is none too pleased with Turkey's actions.

To get caught cold handed doing something everyone in the world knows has been going on for months is not that surprising.

What is interesting is why the Turks chose now to question a process that has been going on for months?

What changed?

More importantly, what message was Turkey attempting to send to Russia and Assad?

The odds are the only way this will be interpreted in Moscow or Damascus is that of an escalation on Turkey's part.

The fact the Turks moved additional fighter aircraft closer to the Syrian border can not be overlooked.

Stacked on top of that event is the announcement it was no longer "safe" to fly over Syrian airspace?

Really????

Again.. Nothing new here... so again the question of; what changed?

I can tell you that the "clearing of airspace" is a worrisome sign to those that know the process of CAP, Combat Air Patrols.

So, what is taking place with these three events.. . Syrian airlines with Russian gear... movement of fighter jets to the border and the closing of Syrian airspace for Turkish airliners.. A process that will be copied by other nations very soon.

                                                                                                                          

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210102183860603.html

AN "EX" UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE??? GIVE ME A BREAK!!

David Rothkopth??? Give me a break!

I have only one comment for a guy like this... stick to selling Chinese goods in Walmart and leave the concept of how conflicts execute to those who have lived in them.

Now, I have talked time and time again about the possibility of actions over Iran or by Iran and how they might take place, but people who write articles like this poor effort in Foreign Policy Review need to catch a clue.

Take a wild guess as to who gets a vote on how long such a strike would last?

Yep.. a ten year old who has mastered Modern Warfare Four on Xbox can figure this one out....... The Iranians do!!!!!!

No one ever said you had to be intelligent to get an article published in a rag like the Foreign Policy.

Take a look at what the other attached article says and remember what I just said above.

Does anyone truly believe the US and Israel could simply bomb locations in Iran for a "few hours" and then head back to the Academic Dinner for Brainless ex administration officials in DC?

One of my favorite TV shows from the 60s was a program called, " Lost In Space".

In that show there was a robot who just about every episode yell, "WARNING... WARNING...DANGER ...DANGER"..

This is exactly what should be going on right now when a left of center, ex administration official starts telling  how easy a strike on Iran might be and how the region might be better off soon afterwords.

What worries many of us is the possible issue of why someone would start floating a story like this.. right now....

I know I have written about the ability to disrupt the Iranian program without having to completely destroy each facility, but I took the time to talk about the danger of Iranian reaction.

The law of Disproportional applies to the Iranian issue like no other time in modern history.

To Iranian leadership, the act of destroying their nuclear program is an attack on their soverinty and can only be seen as a open attempt at " Regime Change".

So, how is it that anyone, even someone as highly skilled as a Deputy Commerce Secretary, insert smirk here, could paint such a rosy outcome?

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287118

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=287148

UPDATE ON HEZBOLLAH'S FUTURE.

Interesting read attached, but I think the author misses an important issue.

The theory Hezbollah may come out of this Syrian event just as strong as they were before based upon their military status still being intact is questionable to me.

What the author overlooks is the issue of Hezbollah being depleted in a conflict and no longer having a 'lifeline" to be resupplied by.

The short answer is, if Iran falls into conflict the future of Hezbollah is bleak at best.

A campaign to deplete Hezbollah's stockpiles as quickly as possible, hopefully far sooner than their ability to deplete it by utilization, is the key to their defeat.

A campaign involving Iran will lead to Hezbollah taking an assault unlike any they have witnessed in the past.

When the dust settles the ability of Hezbollah to have someone resupply them will be gone, along with their influence in Lebanon.

Simply put, to support Iran in a regional war means the end of Hezbollah as we know it.

Hezbollah understands this and in the end, as I have said before, they must decide if destroying their movement for the Persians is truly the end state they can accept!

At night, when the lights are out and the Iranian leadership is contemplating their fate, do they truly believe the Shia Arabs of Hezbollah will cast away their dreams for the sake of the Persians? 

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Oct-04/190070-syria-widens-hezbollahs-contradictions.ashx#axzz28GFEyiBN

FLASH POINT FOR BOTH IRAN AND SYRIA.

Two events took place today that made the news in most of the world with the exception of the US; where all eyes are on the Presidential Debate set for tonight.

One was the exchange of fire between Turkey and Syria.

The other, the far more serious event, was the demonstrations in Tehran.

As excitable as the exchange of fire was between Turkey and Syria, it remains to be seen if this will turn into a true escalating event.

Turkey may use this event to pressure the UN and it's NATO partners into rethinking the "safe zone" issue and some already believe that is what this event really is all about.

Some may think Assad is looking for a "distraction" thinking a limited exchange between Syria and Turkey may pressure "others" to demand a cessation of violence.

I don't buy ether of these stories.

My theory is the rounds fired into Turkey were fired by a unit that is so unprofessional they didn't even realize the repercussions of what they were doing.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply cannot afford the public outcry of not reacting to casualties on their own soil.

Does this mean this event cannot escalate into something far more dangerous?

No, but I don't believe Turkey or even Assad has War on their minds between the two nations.

We shall have to see what takes place in the next 24 hrs to know for sure.

Now, for the real news of the day!

Iran and the dreaded event; the event they have been terrified of for almost two years.

Protest and not just protest by angry College Kids....

For the past few days I have talked to the issue of the impact of the sanctions and how the consequences might very well be more than the West bargained for.

Forcing civil strife in Iran was a foolish goal to begin with and now the age old rule of " law of unintended consequences" could be taking effect.

Iranian leadership's  reaction to these protest of the state of the economy is critical to the overall future of the region.

For days now, they have warned the world they perceived the sanctions as "economic warfare" on the people of Iran.

There is only one way they will frame the protest that started today; it was a Western / US / designed event; one designed to bring about regime change in Iran.

What is Iran willing to do to stop this from growing larger?

How long before the people of Iran see what is taking place and decide now is the time to take to the streets?

Will Iran punish the people of Iran or will they lash out at the ones they believe has brought this upon them?

Yes, two significant events took place today, but the Iranian protest is the one that truly could lead to regional even global consequences.

Months ago, I said if these events came to Iran, Ahmadinejad would become the victim of choice, but that will only buy his Boss a small amount of time if any at all.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

The flaw in the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plan to toss Ahmadinejad to the wolves is the simple fact that the people of Iran will not be satisfied with just one head on the stick.

It will not work!

As of today, Iran's leadership  just became far more desperate than any point in the recent past and there is the real danger!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286516

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/clashes-reported-in-tehran-as-riot-police-target-money-changers.html?_r=0