DOES THE ARAB LEAGUE  HAVE A "PLAN"???

Stories have been flying all week long about Nations in the Middle East taking actions that appear to be military preparations.

Rumors are moving faster than usual even for the Middle East.

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood may want a nice systematic  rhythm to events around them, but they are quickly learning how difficult it is to lead once you are a "leader"!

Turkey really doesn't want a war, but they must show their people they are not "soft".

Iran.. well.. we all know where Iran stands...  " Use of Lose" is quickly becoming their only option.

Israel movement of units based on possible "issues" along the Syrian border  are mirrored by actions in Jordan and now Saudi.

So, is the whole region working the their way towards a conflict none of them with perhaps the exception of Assad and Iran want?

The verbiage in the first article leads me to believe the Arab League believes a conflict is about to take place.

It sounds as if the AL has all but written off the Annan pipedream.

The world seems to think the Russians, the US and the UN will decide if conflict is going to take place in the Middle East.

It's amazing how the old Colonial "Think" is still alive and well.

If the AL has decided to take matters into their own hands and they have come to some level of agreement with Turkey, who would love to be seen as the new " go to power" in the region, then the rest of the world may just have to sit back an react to what takes place.

Think about Putin's trip to Israel this week?

What does Putin know that we may not?

Did Putin show up in Israel and do what we did in Desert Storm; convince Israel to stay out of a Arab on Arab conflict?

Does the AL and the GCC have the military capability to move into Syrian land for the sake of a " safe zone"?

Are the Arabs ready for what that might mean?

They may think so, but I for one hope this is not fantasy they are living under.

Trying to show the world the AL or the GCC is ready to lead the region is a goal, but blundering into a war with a nation like Syria who has a partner such as Iran is a wild dream at best.

One concept that worries me is the AL and the GCC and perhaps even Turkey, a NATO member, are convinced that if they start a fight, the rest of the world will have to get involved.

I know this; something is " cooking" with the GCC and the AL.

Very well equipped, very poorly trained military units can easily start an event that spirals out of control in short order.

Here is the point we cannot forget!

The rest of the world, as hard as it tries, may not prevent the AL and or the GCC from doing something disastrous.

Everyone is ecstatic of the EU pipedream of economic turnaround.

I'm afraid that issue is about to take a backseat to other events.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/29/us-syria-crisis-talks-idUSBRE85S11I20120629

http://www.debka.com/article/22145/Saudis-forces-mass-on-Jordanian-Iraqi-borders-Turkey-Syria-reinforce-strength

ASSAD, " THIS IS A JOKE"?? SO NOW WE KNOW IT'S TRUE!!!

So Assad gives a speech today and comments that Iranian support inside Syria is a "joke"?

I would be willing to bet the Saudi's and the rest of the region are not laughing at this "joke".

Two days ago I mentioned I had a fear about events in Syria, other than the common fear of a regional war; a regional war Assad will not get a chance to vote for.

Here is the "fear" I was making reference to.

If we consider Assad's Generals may be close to deciding in favor of the future of  the Syrian people over the future of Assad, then Assad and his Brother will know this danger is amongst them.

Imagine a Syrian military that has a majority of it's leadership and foot solders no longer willing to take orders?

Remember last week when I talked the danger of defections at the unit level, such as the Air Defense Brigade that joined the Rebels?

Now, imagine Iranian military leaders, who are already in Syria and have been for months, knowing the Syrian Military Leaders may be plotting to make a move on Assad.

Is the day near where Assad has to rely on Iranian leadership  to fight his battles because he can no longer trust his own Generals?

How does Iran justify to the UN the out in the open issue of Iranian Military Commanders actually leading engagements against the Syrian people?

If Iran is committed to keeping Syria in it's "Camp", then they will have to figure out a way to sell this event.

The only way Iran stands a chance of doing so, is painting a picture of coming to the aid of the "Syrian people" not Assad and doing so because an "outsider' has entered the conflict.

Yep... If Iran needs this chain of events to happen in order to react to a Syrian military that is too weak to win and no longer run by leaders who can be trusted, then all that I have said is going to have to happen.

If this is going to take place, it's going to have to happen soon!!!!

The neighbors of Syria are nervous and well as their militaries.

Iran is closer to needing an "Event" than anytime in the past year.

How does Iran justify setting foot on Syrian land?

They must be coming to the rescue!!!!

What they are missing is a "Invader"

What they are missing is Assad saying Syria is at war with "outside forces"...

OH ya... He just said that this week.

Let's see what may be about to happen?

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275682

SIDENOTE:

Saudi is convenced a fight with Iran is coming.

Look at the Reuters story today.

I will talk more about Saudi tomorrow. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/28/us-saudi-oil-hormuz-idUSBRE85R0KT20120628

SO... WHO KILLED KAMAL RANAJA?

So, a key player in Hamas is assassinated in Damascus?

A Hamas member who had ties to al-Mabhouh who the Israelis did get in Dubai back in 2010; a bold killing at that!

Ranaja was absolutely on the Israeli target list, but would they kill him in Damascus, a city in the middle of a civil war; a civil war that already has the entire region on the edge of conflict?

Would Israel want a truly mid level player in Hamas so bad as to take the risk of activating a "kill team" inside Damascus?

My hunch is they would not.

What is really to gain by making this move at this moment in time?

So, who else would want him dead?

If you guessed Assad, you are more in tune with the dealings of the region right now than most.

We cannot forget Hamas openly turned it's back on Assad and that act was bound to cause some level of repercussion.

Now, it's a good knee-jerk reaction for Hamas to point the finger at Israel.

I would be willing to bet many inside Hamas are pointing the finger at Assad.

Having said that, is Israel clever enough to know they could hit this guy and let Assad take the blame?

Don't you just love the drama of world espionage?

What is interesting is the idea of Assad killing a Hamas member as a message to Hamas.

Messages such as this one are not well received in the Middle East and Hamas will find a way to answer the message.

I say it was Assad and I say it's just another indication of how desperate Assad has become.

Let's see what Hamas does.

Things are "hot" right now in Gaza and lower level units may react to the news before they get the word on what Hamas really believes happened.

Miscalculations is a common event in the Middle East and we may be in for yet another one.

http://www.israelandstuff.com/assassination-in-damascus-mabhouhs-aide-killed

  http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275522

US INTELLIGENCE, "SEES", BUT DO THEY SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE?

It's a fairly safe bet to make the statement a protracted event is going to  take place in Syria when it's already been going over a year and a half!!!!!

All in all, the first article is a nice, safe forecast that really doesn't lead to anything.

It's the next two articles that have my interest.

In the past few months, I have broached the issue of what depths Assad and more importantly Iran would be willing to go to in order to stay in power.

I've covered my opinion of Assad's "Red Lines" for taking Syria into a general war with it's neighbors and the possibility his military commanders might not follow him.

Trust me, it's an issue that weighs heavy on his mind and the minds of the Iranian Puppet Masters, especially after the aircraft defections.

The problem is, the successful Rebel tactics may be forcing Assad's hand.

For months, the Rebels could accomplish little more than simple, hit and run events that gave them just the right amount of video to make good You Tube clips.

That has completely changed and that change may end up taking this crisis to a level not even Assad or Iran wants it to go.

You see, when a group becomes so well organized, disciplined and equipped that they can stand and fight a conventional battle or even better go on the offensive in a conventional fight, then defending force must take the fight to the next level;  a level without fixed wing aircraft given the paranoia of defections.

If you look at the reports coming out of Syria on a daily bases now, you see a dramatic change.

The number of reported destroyed Tanks in the past two weeks is more than alarming to the Syrian Military Leaders.

When armor is vulnerable, infantry must secure it and infantry in the open, on the move, is an easy target; thus the causality numbers for the Syrian military are climbing dramatically.  

Again, an issue the Syrian military leaders are losing sleep over.... what sleep they have been able to get in the past eight months.  Yes.. a very...very fatigued force!!!

Next we must consider a logistic complex that is bleeding almost as fast as the Syrian military.

Technical equipment like tanks, helicopters and large vehicles need maintenance and when do you think these Commander have time to conduct this maintenance?

 Ok, here is the picture I'm trying to paint!

The Syrian military is physically exhausted and morale is  as low as it can possibly get.

On top of the exhaustion and morale issue, you can stack FEAR!!!!

Fear of failure.

Fear of punishment for act you have committed and acts you may not commit; thus fearing both sides of the conflict.

simply put, fear for the future.

Now, put this on top of equipment that is most likely bordering on failure.

What do you have?

I will tell you what you don't have.

You don't have a military that is capable of a conventional war with another nation state  such as Turkey... a NATO member to boot!!!!

Bottom line, if Assad ask his military leaders to launch a conventional war, they must consider if they are even capable of doing so; and at what cost to the nation?

I have a fear of how that scenario might turn out and I only hope the Syrian military Commanders prevent my fear.

I can envision  Syrian Military leaders in conflict with their Iranian handlers.

 http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275346

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275355

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275356

MORSI ADDRESSES THE " INFIDELS", BUT WHO ARE THEY?  

Listening to the Muslim Brotherhood declaring they will or will not do something , like run for the Presidency, is yet just another reminder of what the Islamist live by.

To put it simply, it's perfectly acceptable to lie to an " Infidel" as long as it is part of the process of converting or concurring in the name of Islam.

So, yesterday, Morsi quickly makes the statement, words inside of words, he will not change Egypt's "existing treaties" could be seen as yet another example of "Lies to the Non Believers".

If you read exactly what he said and you understand the Art form of expression in the Middle East, a nice way of saying "double talk", then you could come to the conclusion Morsi didn't promise anything, especially when it comes to Israel.

The good news is, the Israeli government understands this trait to perfection.

 Oh ya... the joke of the day was when I read he had " left" the Muslim Brotherhood... that's like leaving the Mafia.

Not only must we contemplate the "double speak... lies to the Infidels, but we need to think about who is on the " Infidel list?

Fars news agency from Iran, posted  a story today about an interview they conducted with Morsi last week.

In that story, Morsi talks about his desire to reestablish "ties" with the Iranian government and more importantly he allegedly commented about "reviewing" the Camp David Accord.

Here is my million dollar question!

Was Morsi once again, "lying to the Infidels"?

Does a devout Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood member consider a Persian Shia a true believer?

I bet not and if not, then he is free to say whatever he wants to them, just as he is doing  to  the rest of the Nonbeliever world.

Now, Far, a Iranian government rag by the way, is publishing this story for the sake of Iran, a country that fears the Muslim Brotherhood / Sunni movement as much as the rest of the region.

Does Morsi truly intend on reaching out to Iran?

Does he intend to keep existing treaties?

Does he ever intend on telling the truth to anyone that is not Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood?

Time will tell, that is what time the Middle East may have left!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275137

   

EGYPT, SYRIA, IRAN, TURKEY..... HOT SPOTS THAT ARE GETTING HOTTER.

It's hard to keep a accurate scorecard on events in the Middle East right now.

Gaza events and riots in Israel have gone all but unnoticed for the past four days and this is just an indication of how fast things are moving in the whole region.

Egypt's pending presidential elections results even took a backseat to the event between Syria and Turkey; at least for the past three days.

Today, Egypt will become the major news story.

Some will watch the NATO meeting call for by Turkey, but nobody wants that event to get anymore out of hand than it already has.

Turkey has time to design their response and it appears they are doing just that.

It's interesting Iran has said very little, if anything, on the Syrian / Turkish incident.

If we don't see some indication of the Iranian opinion, it's a sure sign Iran was caught off guard by the whole thing and they to are busy formatting their " Official" opinion.

As for the events in Gaza, it was obvious the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt simply doesn't want this nonsense taking place at this moment in time.

In the past 48hrs the MB has all but warned the actors to stop immediately.

The problem, as it has been, is several of these groups don't march to the drum of the MB.

So, it's going to be an action packed week in the Middle East!!

What else is new???

CONTINUED REVIEW OF SYRIAN / TURKISH INCIDENT.

As I warned yesterday, the "facts" and the "opinions" on this incident are becoming diluted.

It's based, as it should be, on the "politics" of the incident.

Did Syrian Air Defense / ADA / shoot down the Turkish jet based on poor training, weak rules of engagement, paranoia over their own pilots defecting, Turkish pilots not paying attention????

The more important question continues to be, was it an accident or was it a initial step in a far more complex plan.

The second question, and perhaps the most critical question becomes, what does Turkey believe?

            Sub issue:  How does Turkey " use" the event?

Let's take a look at what would have to have taken place if Syria took this action deliberately.

Would Assad risk his support from Russia and more importantly Iran, without some level of consultation?

Is he so confident, based on how he perceives their support for  Syria, that he would authorize the shooting down of a NATO aircraft without even giving Moscow and Tehran a warning?

There is a huge difference between being "decisive" and being an "Incompetent"!!!

I think we all know what camp Assad falls into.

So, for the sake of trying to figure out what is going on here, let's assume, dangerous thing I know, but let's assume Assad had given some indication to both Russia and Iran.

Let's assume he may have made some statement, perhaps weeks ago, that Syria would not tolerate the possibility of "Outside Interference".

Oh... That's right..... He has already made this statement time and time again?

Was anyone, Turkey, really listening?

Oh, ya.. don't forget the Turkish Fighter is a " NATO" Fighter!

All right, let's move on.....

Let's assume the Syrian military has had standing orders to challenge, up to interception, any aircraft entering Syrian airspace.

            Side note: Did the Turkish Fighter enter Syrian airspace? P.S. It happens all over   the world.

Now, let's assume that a micromanaged, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander is notified a " fast mover" is approaching his Air of Operation.

Let's assume this same Commander has just been part of a larger " butt chewing" the day before over the issue of the Syrian Fighter defecting.

Now, has this Air Defense Commander ever had a Fast Mover approaching his AO before?

Probably.

Has he ever had it happen the day after his entire chain of command had their heads handed to them for the defection event?

Nope.

Does he command a unit that he knows by and large is anti Assad?

Probably.

So, he panics, orders the "unknown" Fast Mover intercepted and the next thing he knows, he has shot down a Turkish Fighter Jet????

Maybe!

By the way, do you think he would be a little curious about just ONE jet approaching the Syrian airspace?

Was it just one?

For all you Air Force folks out there.. how many "solo" flights does the Turkish Air Force fly; in a region where tensions are about as high as they can get?

So, the phone rings in Assad's Command and he is initially informed of the event.

What did he do?

Did he call Moscow or Tehran and let them know before the Turkish news media and government make an announcement?

I bet not and that may have been a huge if not fatal mistake.

If Assad didn't properly set up this event; if he didn't get " support" for such a volatile act, then his support may have gone down with the NATO aircraft.

A even more dangerous theory:

But, and this is a huge "but"; but just what if Moscow and Tehran were ready for this event to take place?

What if, Assad was following a plan that has been written out for him incase his ability to hold onto power in Syria was about to fail?

I can't get my mind around this theory, unless you separate the two supporting nations.

Could it be this escalation was a Iranian sponsored event without Moscow support?

Would Putin really support the concept of shooting down a NATO partner aircraft?

His actions since coming back into power have been bold and he knows he has "issues" inside his own country, but supporting a regional conflict, something they have warned about, really?????

I just don't know that I believe it.

Now, Iran is an entirely different story!

For months now, really over a year, I have said the fall of Syria is an unacceptable event for Iran; a " Red Line" they would be willing to cross!

On mutual occasions I have spelled out my " Use or Lose" theory from the Iranian viewpoint.

Over the past few weeks the world has witnessed several hurried meetings between Moscow, Iran and Syria; one on one and as a group and that is only the list of meetings that we overtly know of.

What was decided?

What was talked about?

Ruthless world Leaders don't take the time to sit down and argue over dead-end topics.

Remember, after several of these " meetings" the very first thing the Russians would come to the microphone and say was, how dangerous the situation in Syria was becoming and how it would have repercussions for the whole region.

Ok, let's assume:

Let's assume the Iranians have their " Red Line" and when they reach one of those Red Lines, they have a series of actions they are willing to risk.

Let's assume one of those actions is a " warning" event.

Let's assume this warning event is based on the typical, historical warning events of aircraft and airspace.

Let's assume, that if this " warning" didn't have the desired outcome, and I don't believe there is any chance that it will, Iran was looking for, then there will be another and most likely more dangerous.

Conclusion:

I have looked at two possible scenarios as to how this event took place and the bottom line is..... it's all about to get worse.

Europe is desperate to avoid  more bad news, such as a NATO partner, regional war although some would probably argue the European economy needs a " good war" right about now.. a real dumb theory that idiots always come up with.. the Black Helicopter Gang!

The US administration would like the whole world and the world economy to simply sail along like a scene from the Teletubbies.

Turkey; well from day one of the Arab Spring, the Ottomans have worked hard to figure out a way to be the Regional "Leader".

That is the problem here and I think that is the problem Iran didn't properly think through, if this event was their idea.

The Turks get a vote on what do to about the "event".

A regional war is not what Turkey needs or wants, in my opinion.

But, if Iran, the Persians, overstep the limits, then the Ottomans may show the world they are ready to be  the true stabilizing force in the Middle East.

In the end, my  opinion is a reckless, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander has pushed the region to the brink of conflict.

A conflict that Iran and the Turks cannot come out looking like the losers!

Turkish " Perception" and "vision" is the key to the next few days.

Hold on...

SO.  WAS IT REALLY A SHOOTDOWN ??

Well, lets keep this simple and short given this event will have multiple updates as the day moves on.

My best guess is the Syrian Anti Aircraft unit shot the Turkish fighter down thinking it was yet another defecting pilot.

Syrian AA units are about 1/100 as trained and proficient as a typical NATO or Western unit.

What they probably did get was a standing order to fire on any aircraft flying in a  certain area that was not properly identified.

Syrian aircraft to not have FF, Friend or Foe, electronics and a trigger happy AA battery commander would only be thinking about what would happen to him if he allowed another Syrian Jet to travel his air space without authorization.

So,  I don’t buy the theory this was a deliberate act, but the actions of a poorly trained AA unit and paranoid leadership.

This would explain why Turkey has responded so carefully, knowing full well what a disastrous  event this could turn into.

Bottom line, this is just another indication of just how dangerous this whole crisis is becoming.

Have countries fallen into conflicts over a miss communication or a paranoid mistake?

Really… is that a serous question?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html

DID THE UN REALLY PULL OUT?

Many were not surprised by the announcement of the UN teams “halting” their activities, whatever they may have been.

So, what does this mean  to the rest of the world and more importantly what does it mean to the people of Syria?

Lets look at this decision from a viewpoint that may not be a normal media reaction.

Let’s talk about those who have quietly been supporting Assad and those who have been too afraid to rise up against him,  and this is a large part of the first group I just mentioned.

Every day the lives of these two groups is based upon hope.

The hope that things will get better is the dominant issue with the rise of every morning Sun!

Imagine waking up today and hearing on the news the statement you probably knew was coming?

Now, an optimist would say, “the UN didn’t say they were leaving. They are just holding fast until things  calm down”.

These two groups know what we all know, that is not going to happen anytime soon!

Fear, once again, rules the day coupled with despair  for those who are simply trying to survive in Syria.

Imagine the feeling of knowing  you have to open your store, go to work not because you want to, but because the government Thugs threaten you and your family if you don’t.

Ok, the message I am trying to get across here is one of every increasing despair, not only for the ones fighting to free themselves from Assad, for you see when you are fighting, you have the opportunity to counter despair with your anger and your determination, but when you are just simple working people who only want the world to be somewhat normal while you struggle to provide for you family, there is little to grasp on to.

It is this group the UN announcement impacted the most today!!!

It’s just one more sign of how tragic your life is continuing to become.

I really don’t care, at least not right now, what this announcement means to the political leadership in the West, Russia, China or even the UN.

Right now, today, this message sinks the hearts of those who are so desperately trying to hang on in Syria.

The world has far more good people than evil ones and it is up to the good people of the world to save the good!!!!

The evil are just that evil!!!!

Some can spend their entire life trying to right the wrongs of the world and thank God these people eventually rise to the occasion. 

MB.. THINGS NOT GOING ACCORDING TO THE "PLAN"???

last night I mentioned the MB may not have things going just their way and that could impact their "Master Plans" for the Palestinian Authority and even actions elsewhere in the region.

Well, it became clear today the Egyptian Military was not finished with their long history of calling the shots in Egypt.

I listened to both Shafiq's speech and Mursi's rant... that is exactly what it was!!!!

Some are calling today's court decision a coup, and to the general population it's not too far fetched to believe that is exactly what happened.

I would not place this dramatic announcement in the category of a coup, but I would admit the path chosen today by the Scaf is a dangerous one.

Mursi's tirade was confusing, partially because the translator on Al Jazeera was terrible, but the emotion exhibited by Mursi was undeniable.

Now, does the MB really believe they are going to lose the election this weekend?

I would say they are ready to make the Scaf pay the price if they do not win.

Egypt, as some have predicted, is possibly about to slip back into the crisis of 2011 and the region knows it simply can absorb anymore bad news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18453721

FATAH AND HAMAS CLOSE AGAIN....SO THEY SAY!! AGAIN!!!

With all the world watching the events in Syria, this issue simply is not getting any traction in the Western media.

For the 300th time, sarcasm inserted, Fatah and Hamas state they are "close" to a unified government.

Right!!

Not much has changed on this front.

Hamas still can't stand Fayyad and Abbas won't work without him.

So, what is changing this time around?

My answer is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Notice how they real decisions on this topic are once again put off until the second round of the Egyptian Presidential Elections?

It's just another sign of who is really calling the shots here...

In the MB Master Plan, the Palestinian Authority will have a unified government and that government will answer to the MB.

The MB problem is the situation in Egypt is not going as easy as they planned.

It's not that they have forgotten about the plan to unify the PA government, it's just that they must solidify their Egyptian issue first.

In the meantime, the Israeli government watches to see what the MB plans for the PA.

Israel knows all too well the end-state for the MB is to have a unified PA government that demands statehood and Jerusalem.

The timetable for this plan is something the MB wants to control and that means getting Hamas and Fatah to do as they are told.

 Not too many people are really holding their collective breath for this " unified" event, but Israel is still formulating what the reaction needs to be if it happens.

If things don't go the way the MB wants them to in Egypt, and I think they could, then all bets are off and the MB will be distracted for sometime to come.

Add to that the now declared Civil War in Syria and the PA unification issue could continue to be nothing more than a typical mirage in the desert. 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=273730

UN OFFICIAL "SYRIA IN CIVIL WAR"...... NO KIDDING!!!!!

Two nights ago I commented on how ominous it appeared not that reports were getting out that entire units, brigade size units, were defecting!

It didn't take long for some of the UN members, who have a tactical background, to come to the realization that events such as this one would push Syria over the edge.

Having said that, it still had to be a coordinated event for the UN to support their member making such an obvious statement.

If the UN didn't support what their member said, they would have jumped on the airwaves of the media and shut the story down as soon as possible. 

So, what does it mean now that the UN has made such a bold statement?

Here is my spin.

How this plays in the GCC and Turkey is the real issue.

For Turkey to formally hear the UN declare a "Civil War" on Turkeys' border is something to worry about.

How Saudi plays this against the Iranians is the next issue.

What did surprise me was how quickly the US Department of State, Secretary of State, came out with the comment about Russian support to Syria.

If the UN's backing of their members statement was not coordinated with the Secretary of State's comment, and I don't believe it was, it will still be seen as a "coordinated event" in the eyes of Iran, Russia and Syria.

Today was a day of dangerous words and these words will be responded to by all three, Russia, Iran and Syria.

A war of escalating statements is probably coming within the next day at most.

Tomorrow , I will cover what tactically may be about to change in Syria and how that might change the level of the conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261222721181345.html

PENDING VOTE IN LEBANON COULD DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST


Lebanon continues to be a key issue in the gauging of Middle Eastern
conflict.

It is not realistic to believe Assad or Iran would threaten the West with
spreading the crisis by pulling in Lebanon and it is clear Lebanese
leadership has no intention of allowing that to take place.

We must not forget that Lebanon is vital to Iranian strategy, but  not from
a standpoint of neutralizing the Syrian crisis.

Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah remain tools of Iran for conflict with
Israel and will not be squandered on the Syrian crisis as a retaliatory
measure.

Having said this; there is some credit to the concept of "use or lose".

 The Iranians could contemplate "use or lose",  but that becomes a factor
only if it is clear Syria was to  fall into total Sunni control.

A Syria that is at its worst a land of civil war with no real leadership is
still a place where Iranian guided Lebanese Hezbollah can execute missions
on Iranian orders.

Lebanon in the 80s was a land of crisis, with operational terrorist units
free to train, execute missions and live as they liked.

Iran along with Russia may be coming to the conclusion crisis without Assad
is better than the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in control.

Russia is on the wrong side of world opinion and even someone as egotistical
as Putin understands this cannot continue.

If this holds true, then the idea of Assad falling or the West conducting a
Libyan style attack becomes far more likely.

So, the key becomes Lebanon!

Keeping the Syrian crisis out of Lebanon is vital to the overall stability
of the region.

The problem is, the Sunni leadership sees the timing may be right to move on
the Lebanese Hezbollah if Assad falls.

Keeping Lebanon out of crisis, one I think they are already in is going to
prove very difficult to accomplish.

Thus; the Iranian "use or lose" theory comes back into play.

Hezbollah actions worldwide, to include in the US, cannot be overlooked.



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-11/176414-lebanese-rival-
leaders-break-the-ice-meet-for-national-dialogue.ashx#axzz1xUcX86M3

A TROUBLING STORY THAT MIGHT BE OVERLOOKED!

Taking control of a brigade?

What does that mean?

It appears this brigade defected and if true, a defection at brigade level is a serious escalation of events for Assad.

Brigade level assets are a substantial issue.

Brigade level leadership and expertise is even a larger issue for Assad.

Just look at this issue in terms of equipment, radios as an example.

Frequencies.... operational, communication and command and control issues are huge implications of this possible event.

It's one thing when a few young solders or a single Senior Officer defects.

It's even more important when it's let say an Company size unit.

But when a unit with the capabilities of a combat brigade jumps sides, that is a huge tactical as well as strategic  event.

Now, consider the intelligence value of such a unit.

Think of the knowledge a brigade level headquarters element would have of area operations?

Knowledge is power and this is never more true than in combat.

If this really happened as this story indicates, then a major step has been taken towards the ever feared, and in my opinion already here.. Civil War.

Let's see if this story pops up again soon.

Let's see if Al Jazeera covers it.

Don't underestimate what this might mean to the crisis in Syria!!!!

Oh, and it's not good news... not in terms of increased violence.

As a reminder... A Syrian brigade is not the same structure or size wise as a typical US or NATO unit, but that is lost in the strategic value of this possible event.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=273357

NO PROGRESS????? NO KIDDING!!!!

As much as Putin would love to be the hero of the hour at the next round of talks in Moscow, it seems the Iranians didn't get the message.

With a statement like, " No Progress", coming from the IAEA's chief inspector, the stage may be set for the Moscow talks in ten days.

What will be interesting is Putins' reaction to this announcement.

I have to wonder if he has made a phone call to Tehran reemphasizing his desires for the next round of talks.

Iran needs Russia and needs them desperately.

Russia needs to show the world they can solve worldly issues such as Iran's nuclear program and Syria and a headstrong Iran will not go over well with the Tsar!

The Iranians know the US wants nothing but smooth water between now and November, but after that, all bets  are off.

Iran must juggle the nuclear issue with the crisis in Syria without letting ether issue come to conflict, unless it's a conflict Iran wants!

Somewhere in this mess is Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah teams we all know are out there right now plotting to attack and probably soon.

When it comes to the Middle East, no issue is a standalone event right now.

As much as Putin and the Iranians would love to talk about what great breakthrough the talks in Moscow are going to be, and trust me, that is what they will both say, the fact of the matter is, nothing is going to change.

The US leadership wants any and all issues to hold off until after November.

Somebody better get that message to the Lebanese Hezbollah!

We are one mass casualty, Israeli causality, event away from conflict.

Israel knows they are being pushed to respond, but it's leadership will not stand for a media event that covers a large loss of innocent lives.

The "Moscow Show" is only ten days away!!!

The headlines are already written in Tehran and Moscow...

I really hope nobody is foolish enough to believe this event will lead to anything.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18370334

OK.. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF A " CIVIL WAR"?????

Let's look at what's going on in Syria as of today and see if we can figure out why all the so called "experts" believe Syria "may be heading for a Civil War, when it appears to most of the world they are already well into one.

I found this article that basically asked the same question about Iraq back in 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4902708.stm

After thinking about this issue and reviewing what took place in Iraq and what is taking place in Syria, there is one very logical reason why Iraq was never really a "Civil War"...

The Coalition Forces!

It's hard to have a civil war when one side has a collection of highly developed military units on it's side, especially when those forces are from other nations to include a Super Power.. the most powerful Super Power.

So, does this mean without intervention in Syria, Syria is heading for a so called " Civil War"?

Again, in my opinion, they are already there and have been for months.

I'm not sure what the academic talking heads will say, but most of us who have watched a city or a town get bombarded by artillery, attack helicopters and heavy armor, well.. we have a different opinion..

Lets come to terms and lets hope the UN can come to reality....

Syria is in a Civil War and the flames are burning closer and closer to the fuel stored in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and yes... Iran....

I've said this before and I will say it again..

What is the cost of no intervention and what is the cost of intervention?

If we don't figure these two questions out very quickly, they will find their own answers and we will all have to live with the results.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/06/02/Annan-warns-Syria-heading-for-civil-war/UPI-36471338675601/

ANOTHER REAL BAD SIGN FOR ASSAD.

As I start this post tonight, there is news of yet another massacre in Homs!

The finger pointing has already started, but the court of public opinion will come down on Assad, rest assured.

Ok, back to my real discussion tonight.

The attached article speaks to an issue most of us have agreed on would be a reliable sign Assad's support was in real trouble.

It's been known from the beginning the business class, Sunni, members of the capital  has been the major factor in Assad holding on.

The idea of the people who have the most to lose, business and trade, have feared what would come after Assad more than what Assad was doing.

Looking at pictures of virtually piles of dead children and knowing you are backing the person who followers conducted this act, is more than most of the " businessmen" can stand.

Fear still rules the day, but anger and a even greater fear of Assad fall and being left behind labeled as a " supporter" is starting to take it's toll on the real Middle Class of Syria.

Damned if you do and Damned if you don't... that's where they stand and they know it.

As the article states, this closing of the stores is a major challenge to Assad's power.

Kicking down the doors and forcing the stores to open, will only help these fence sitters make up their minds.... Yep.. a real dumb move on Assad's part.

If this second massacre is true, and it looks as if it is, then these business class member of Syria may be pushed over the edge.

Russian and Iranian support is not going to make them open their doors and be seen as supporters of a government that stacks children like firewood.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272807