PUTTING HEZBOLLAH ON THE SPOT.  A BRILLIANT MOVE!

Well, as is sometimes the case in the Middle East, the story has changed again and again.

Last week the "Breaking News" was the Lebanese Hostages were " about to be freed!

The line of who was taking credit for the breakthrough was longer than the list of suspects who kidnapped them.

"They will be free shortly.... They will be home today... They are on their way back to Lebanon"... and so on and so on and so on......

It's June and that promise, like so many in that part of  the world, has been broken again and again.

Turning them over without getting anything out of it never really seemed a logical end-state to this event, and it turns out it wasn't.

So what are the Rebels who hold them going to get out of this?

I will be the fist to admit, the final asking price was one not even I would have thought of!

Not money... not a prisoner exchange, at least not yet.... but the perhaps the most damaging thing anyone could have come up with.

To ask Nasrallah to apologize for something he said and to make Hezbollah humiliate themselves in every Middle Eastern media network there is, and they would all cover it, with the exception of Syria and Iran, is a stroke of genius.

Why genius?

Think about what this demand does?

If Nasrallah refuses to make such an apology, then he and Hezbollah must face the Shia families in Lebanon.

The fate of Lebanese Shia, the very people LH is sworn to protect, is in the hands of Nasrallah!

I wonder how long it took his Iranian Masters to call him?

If Nasrallah gives in, then whatever statement he gives, even if it's at 5am in 10 second sound bite, will be heard and replayed a thousand times in the region alone.

Creating a split, no matter how small, between Hezbollah and Iran  is the goal is the end result.

To the rebels, the end state is humiliating LH in Lebanon.

Now, let me end this analysis by stating the obvious.  

A boxed in.... potentially humiliated Hezbollah is a very....very... dangerous animal!

This could end with the classic, "be careful what you ask for", but I must admit, it was a brilliant concept.

Score one for the rebels.... for now!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272262

IRAN... PLAYING IT JUST AS I THOUGHT THEY WOULD!

The story of Chicken Little is about to apply  to the Middle East.

For over a year now, many of us have warned how out of control the Syrian event could become.

I have said time and time again, Iran cannot accept the loss of Syria, Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah.

These are Red Flag issues that would push Iran into a corner they would have no option but to fight from.

The fall of Assad leads to the fall of the current coalition government in Lebanon, a coalition government that is controlled by Hezbollah.. the Iranian Puppet.

Hamas has been lost to the Muslim Brotherhood and only small factions inside Gaza remain committed to doing the potential bidding of Iran...

The saving grace for Iran in the Hamas issue would be the amount of damage that could still be launched from Gaza.. an event Israel would have to react to neutralize.

The troubles in Iraq I wrote about last night only add to the paranoia building inside Iran.

Nothing is going their way.

Even Azerbaijan is beginning to increase it's resistance to Iranian influence.

So, it must be no surprise to anyone the statements coming out of Iran.

The problem is, for too long people have talked of wars and rumors of wars when it comes to the Persians.

I fear many are simply not listening or have simply adopted the " Chicken Little Syndrome"..

What's important here is the sequence of these announcements.

Larijani knew full well the briefing that was taking place at the UN today.

In the minds of the Iranians, the comments by the US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, were focused directly at the supporters of Assad.

The idea of the US pressuring the UN to realize the time for unarmed, passive observer missions in Syria may be coming to an end is a warning to Iran... at least that is how Iran will have interpreted the statement.

Threatening a regional war is one of the last options the Iranians actually have.

Many may say the price is too high for Iran to take such reckless action, but the moment of truth is closing in on Iran quickly.

I have predicted for months now, Hezbollah is the key to what Iran is willing to do.

If War in the region is the option Iran takes, then Hezbollah will be the key to the initial act.

Making Israel overreact is the key to Iran having any chance of keeping the Arab Muslims on their side of the war and even then it will not work with the GCC / Turkey and Egypt.

Now is the moment is pre -conflict events when Nation States decide to take sides or sit  it out!

Some are often forced into the fight and as such, they  limit their involvement.

The fact of the matter is this.

Iran grows more dangerous by the day....

Options are limited and growing smaller by the day.

As soon as everyone thinks conflict is about to start, it probably will.

I'm not sure what Ambassador's Rice's comments meant to the US people, if they even heard them, but I know what they meant to the Iranian leadership.

I wonder how many phone calls are taking place between Moscow and Tehran?

Oh ya... 85 dollar a barrel oil is bad for the Tsar!!!!

This is a fight he may make a killing off of!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=272093

TROUBLE FOR IRAQ??  WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok, if anyone really anticipated a working relationship between the Kurds, Sunni and Shia in Iraq, I have some Swamp Land in Arizona I would like to sell you!

I'm not sure the world was paying attention last week when the Kurds announced the oil pipeline deal with Turkey.

If you noticed, it didn't go over well with Maliki and his followers.

As for the relationship between Maliki and Muqteda Al Sadr... well there really isn't one and that's been the case for a long time.

Now, Maliki and Sadr have both been Iranian puppets for the past several years and for the most part, they have both done as they have been told.

Here comes the rub!

Maliki and Sadr do happen to have something in common, they both don't really like being told what to do!

That trouble is only compounded by the fact the Persians are once again dictating to the Arabs.... A group of Persians and Arabs that just so happen to fight a extremely violent war less than one generation ago.. a war Maliki remembers as a man and a war Sadr remembers as a young man.

Here comes the second part of the issue.

Maliki is much more of a autocrat than he is a " religious man".

Maliki's love of power comes far before his faith.

Sadr... well he's a guy trying to grow into his Father's shoes.

On top of that complex, he loves power just as much as Maliki.

The difference is, Sadr loves the religious power he feels entitled to.

Well, by this time, you may have figured it out.

We are dealing with the Kurds who want their own land and two ego maniacs that have grown tired of listening to Iran.

So, how much trouble is Iraq really in?

A whole lot of trouble.

I'm not sold on the theory that Iran is happy with Sadr making a move on Maliki.

The last thing Iran needs right now is their other puppet government sliding into crisis, especially at the hands of two Arabs who are supposed to be taking orders from the Persians!

Oh ya, the idea of the Kurds making a deal with the Turks... Ottomans.... makes perfect sense.

They have what the Ottomans need and want...... OIL!!!!!

Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, you can soon add Iraq to the list of troubles in the Middle East, as if they hadn't been!

Great news to the GCC and Saudi..

The King can sit in Saudi and stick his finger in the other eye of the Iranians.

We will have to watch to see where this one goes.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90647

SO.. WHO REALLY THINKS IT WASN'T ASSAD'S FAULT?

As would be expected, Assad, Russia and the Syrian Puppet Master Iran all tried their best today to place the blame for the  massacre on anyone other than Assad.

Let me state a few hard facts and then I will let you decide who did what?

1.  Not even Sunni Zealots would take knives to the throats of Sunni Children.

            One only has to ask, what faction were the victims.. Sunni or Shia?

2.  The only way a group of ground troops can move building to building during artillery and mortar attacks is by knowing what areas are safe to move on and at what time they would be safe from shelling.

            In short, you have to know the " plan" of attack" and you have to know when the indirect fire would end or start or move.

            This leaves out the Sunni combat units and it leaves out the radical groups such as             AQI.

I'm convinced the Russians didn't think through their statement about who might have conducted this atrocity.

In my opinion, they panicked.

They heard the news of the children and simply ran to the media outlets to give a statement.

Russia and Iran may be forced to stay at Assad's side, but taking knives to children is something not even nation state politics can withstand.

Assad may have very well signed his own death warrant!

The interesting issue becomes who caries it out?

If Iran and Russia can find a happy middle ground "Puppet".. Assad is a dead man!

Russia and Iran realize this may not stop the larger issue of Sunni / Shia / confrontation, but Assad is past the point of being an asset to ether of the two nations.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90611

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=271765

CLOSER TO THE EDGE!

Two stories that paint an ever desperate picture of events in the Middle East.

As I have stated in the past, DEBKA, has a tendency to hyper inflate storylines when it comes to the issue of  Iran.

Having said that, they usually fall into the category of,  where there is smoke, there is fire.

Given the current personal relationship between Netanyahu and the President of the US, it is not out of the question this snubbing might have taken place.

If the US message trying to be relayed to Israel was one of, "we are going to met yet again.. and again.. and again",  until we get past November of 2012, then Netanyahu may not have been in the mood to listen.

If the information in the second linked story has any level of validity to it, then it's even easier to see why Israel may simply not see the logic of continuing to talk with the US about " meetings" with Iran.

There comes a point in time in every conflict where leadership makes the emotional decision to take action.

Are we closer to this point than before the Baghdad meeting?

Mostly likely yes.

As I read these two stories, what really bothered me was the insanity of the mass killing in Syria to include dozens of children.

I can just imagine the reaction to this story in Iran and Moscow.

I'm not sure how many times the world can turn it's back on Assad's actions, but this one may very well cost him more than any in the past fifteen months.

The West will not condone military actions against Assad based on this event, but the Saudi and GCC support to the FSA and "other" groups now active in Syria is going to go astronomically higher.

So why does Assad's massacre in Houla make me worry about Iran and Israel?

As I have always said; Iran will do whatever it takes to keep Syria, to include forcing Israel to attack Lebanon to distract from Assad's actions.

It's clear this event in Syria is going to have fast repercussions and Lebanon / Lebanese Hezbollah  or "events" in Bahrain are sure to follow.

 Everyone has a breaking point.. .... Iran.... the West... Saudi.... the UN....

The fact of the matter is, something is going to give...... something is going to take the whole region to the next level.

We all continue to run out of time.

http://www.debka.com/article/22032/Netanyahu-Barak-refuse-to-see-US-official-with-negative-report-on-Baghdad-talks

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90508

WHAT DOES MEXICO HAVE IN COMMON WITH THE MIDDLE EAST?

First off, you need to read the linked article before you read this post.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

Now, the concept of Mexico possibly having the beginnings of it's own Arab Spring is not new to the Americas.

Chile has had it's "look alike" issues on it's college campuses for over a year now.

My other concern with this theory is in both cases it seems the demonstrations are limited to college campuses and college students.

Never the less, let's take a look at what we have potentially going on in Mexico... a place I keep track of on a daily basses.

Yesterday, I was reviewing an article about this same subject and reading a

few blogs about the protest against the PRI and Nieto's relationship with

the media, one that is true, and I couldn't help but remember my initial

thought when I first heard of the Arab Spring.

What if this social media driven process was to come to Mexico?

I think I sent an email to my friend Chuck, warning him how this "concept"

could come to the US and worse to a weakened country like Mexico.

For several years now, some  of us have talked about the DTO issues in

Mexico not from the perspective of drugs impact in the US and the violence

this process creates, but how Mexico's  government continues to lose the

confidence of the Mexican people.

Many have argued that DTO issue, although dramatic in its violence, has had

little " impact" on the overall "health" of Mexico.

Most who have taken this stance base it on the economic status of Mexico.

Simply put, they make the argument, "Mexico's numbers look good and

therefore the problems are minimum"!

Social fabric is held together by more than just economic numbers!

A society that cannot feel safe at home... a society that continues to lose

its confidence in its leadership is a society ripe for change.

I have long feared the overall health of Mexico was reaching a point of

danger and the DTO issue was simply one of the viruses that have sickened

the social organs of Mexico.

The corruption and exhaustion of the civilian law enforcement and Mexican

Military, is a dangerous combination when it comes to potential protest on

College Campuses and people taking to the streets.

If this article is truly pointing to a dangerous shift in Mexico, our

enemies will be sure to leverage it.

Nothing would make Iran happier than to see Mexico in crisis and a US

government distracted at its border.

Another issue to consider:

The demographics of the US and the future trends in these demographics makes

the issue of Central and South America far more important than they

currently seem.

Perception is reality, especially to the people who are scared to go to bed

at night.

Mexico could be in far more trouble than some realize or want to admit.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

SO.. WHO IS THE TSAR REFERRING TO?

Everyone should understand the Russian viewpoint towards the Middle East is not based upon peace and tranquility.

That is not how they operate, or at least that is not how the Tsar keeps the price of oil inflated.. something the Russians need to rebuild their economy.

"Artificially aggravated"... ??????

The Saudis???? the US.... Space Aliens???

If anyone is the absolute master of " Artificially aggravating" some event.. it would be the Tsar's team!

Now, the problem with this statement  is the part about it ending very badly is absolutely  true.

Russian understands the Iranian Master Plan and how vital the Lebanese proxy support is.

If properly managed, the price of oil based on controlled Middle East tensions could keep oil prices far above where the Russians need them.

Conversely, a regional war could lead to a world wide economic crash that might last for years.

That is not how the Tsar plans to rebuild his Empire.

Controlled tension has been the plan for the Middle East for every country that makes a profit off of higher oil prices.. .yes the Saudis and the GCC are right in there with the Russians.

When Sergie Lavrov made the statement, "it could end very badly", he was most likely talking about the issue from the Russian perspective.

Oil at 115 dollars per barrel .... Good for the Tsar...

Oil at 45 dollars per barrel.. Bad for the Tsar and mad Tsar's are dangerous Tsars!

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/41159-lavrov-warns-of-bad-end-if-syria-up

LEBANON.. A FIRE THAT IS GETTING HARD TO PUT OUT!

Earlier in the day, the hope of keeping a lid on Lebanon gained some momentum when Shadi Al-Mawlawi was released on bond by the Lebanese government.

As is almost always the case in the Middle East, hope was short lived.

The kidnapping of the 13 Shia pilgrims, if that is what they were, has dumped gasoline back onto the fire of the Lebanese crisis.

The fact the reactions to this event took place all the way back in Beirut seems odd, except for  the fact that is where the families of the kidnapped victims live.

What I found unusual was how un prepared the Lebanese government was for this reaction.    

Now, I will grant you it's a lot easier to walk out into the street, when you are unemployed and bored to tears, as soon as your cell phone rings with the news family members have been abducted, than it is to officially respond to the neighborhood.

Having said that, it is not mystery to the Lebanese leadership what neighborhoods run the risk of having " problems"!

It is no mystery Lebanon's leadership has been anticipating trouble, especially after the events of the past two weeks.

What I did find interesting was how fast Hibollah's leadership, Nasrallah, took to the airwaves to attempt to keep the situation as calm as possible.

I've argued with some of my counterparts for several days over the insane concept that Iran or Hizbollah is attempting to bring a crisis to Lebanon to make them pay for the Sunni support coming from the Lebanese sympathizers. 

It is not what Iran or Hizbollah wants and Nasrallah's actions validates my theory.

One thing is for certain; Lebanon is now front and center for potential violence and everyone is beginning to understand how dangerous that truly is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18169174

LEBANON MOVES CLOSER TO THE EDGE.

Several times in the past few months I have commented on the danger of Lebanon slipping into crisis.

As a matter of fact, it was well over a year ago when I talked about the risk the STL announcement could bring to Lebanon.

It's not worth repeating what happened there in the past few days, but it is very important to understand why it happened and what it could lead to.

First the Why:

Why would a Lebanese military checkpoint fire on and kill a Sunni cleric knowing all to well the tensions that hung over the entire country?

Well, it hard to tell someone is a Sunni cleric if they are in a vehicle that is not stopping at a checkpoint... oh ya.. .did anyone notice the vehicle Alawite was in? A Ranger Rover??? 

Being a Sunni cleric must pay well!!!!

So, it could be a under trained, uneducated conscript in the Lebanese military that was assigned to Checkpoint duty had all the risk in the world of doing something as disastrous as shooting a Sunni cleric... oh and add.. poorly supervised to the list of screw ups!!

Here is an additional question I've not heard an excuse for just yet.. but I bet one is out there already....

Why did the cleric and his bodyguard run the checkpoint?

In the Middle East.. running a checkpoint is the US version of " Death by Cop".... a phenomenon where someone deliberately sets themselves up to be killed by the Police.

I'm not suggesting, or perhaps I'm not, this cleric would do something as bold as deliberately getting himself, "martyred " for the sake of sparking the sectarian flames in Lebanon, but you have to ask, why?

For the sake of time, let's move on and cover the second part of this topic.

What does it mean to Lebanon?

I'm not convinced this is the proverbial " straw that broke the Camel's back"... silly cliché I know, for an event in the Middle East, but I had to use it.

The event, if properly managed, may not ignite the flames of a crisis in Lebanon, but notice I said " if properly managed". 

What I do know is this was not the sanctioned act of Hizbollah or Iran or Syria.

Lebanon falling into a full blown crisis is more than Iran can stand right about now.

As I said a few days ago, Iran needs Lebanon and Hizbollah for one thing and one thing only... to place a Proxy War between Iran and Israel.

An internal conflict based on a non Israeli threat would be absolutely disastrous for Iran.

Does anyone stand to gain from this senseless killing?

Yep.. You may have guessed it...... The Muslim Brotherhood.

The question becomes, is the timing right?

Is this what the MB wants right now?

If not, then the whole thing was an idiotic blunder and it might not ignite Lebanon into a full crisis.. although many conflicts have started by accident.

Are the Sunni ready for additional conflict in Lebanon?

Is Lebanon going to be more than just a launching board for operations in Syria?

If the answer becomes yes, then look for Iran to react and react in a huge way.

If anyone has been looking for a " Red Line" in the Middle East than this would be it!

Iran will not stand by and watch Lebanon fall into full Sunni control as they march on Damascus.

If Iran was going to start a proxy war in the Middle East, this scenario would speed up the Iranian timeline dramatically.

The hint of this happening is Hezbollah.

If Hezbollah attacks Jewish targets in the world and Israel knows it was LH, then we will all have our answer on what Iran is willing to do to prevent the fall of Assad and Lebanon.

Simply put; if Lebanon begins to fall into crisis, look for LH to go into action and the whole region will be next.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/20125212324201596.html

"UNITY GOVERNMENT FOR THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE!! LMAO!!!

Now, I know LMAO, is not a very professional way to post an update on a serous topic such as the Palestinian issue, but really.. yet another, "we swear to meet and talk about it" statement?

If you think the fist story, linked below, has any chance of becoming an actual event, you only need to read the second link from about four days ago.

Hamas and Fatah have what really amounts to a " blood Feud" going on and agreeing to additional " talks" is nothing more than trying to appease  the Muslim Brotherhood as they demand the two stop embarrassing the Palestinian Cause.

But, as is always the case with Blood Feuds in the Middle East, nether side can "let it go"!

You see... It's not about who is right or who is wrong for the Palestinian people; what  they want are jobs, and to feel happy and safe... just like the rest of the word.

To the ego maniacs in Hamas and Fatah, it's about power....money... control... and worst of all... EGO!!!

So many Asses, but only one fits in the chair at a time!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=270768

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18097303

WHO'S IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT???

A lot of "Smoke and Mirrors" going on here.

Is it possible the West is concerned arms flowing to the Syrian Rebels  /

Resistance Fighters / take your pick /  could end up in the hands of pro

radical Islamic forces?

Yes!!

Is it possible these arms movements are being supported by countries such as

Saudi and the GCC?

Yes!

Would this, once again, place the goals of the West / US / in conflict with

the desires of Saudi and other GCC members?

Yes!

Is it possible the Lebanese government is trying to take some of the heat

off of them for the arrest of  Al-Mawlawi, a Sunni leader, by pointing the

finger at the US?

Yes!

Would Hezbollah deliberately inflame Tripoli in order to " take the pressure

off of Syria"?

NO!!

Would Iran think inflaming Lebanon to distract the world from the Syrian

issue would be a sound plan?

NO!!

So, what is going on in Lebanon?

A Civil War, or a version of one, is taking place in Syria and Lebanon, who

is already a house divided, is on the border of that Civil War.

Iran doesn't want a "proxy war" in Lebanon unless it's a conflict with

Israel.

Wasting Hezbollah and Lebanon battlefields on anything other than war with

Israel would be a huge mistake for Iran.

It's not Iran / the Persians / who are moving to turn Lebanon into a "proxy

war".

It's the Sunni..... The Muslim Brotherhood!!

Lebanon is the tactical jump point for operations in Syria.

As the final push to win over Syria comes, Lebanon will move back into Sunni

control.. and that is the Master Plan.

Iran knows this.

We all know this... or we should!

Ok, the million dollar question!!!

Will Pro Qaida forces begin to take action in Lebanon?

YES!!

Look for the IED campaign in Tripoli soon!!!

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8935

ISRAEL PREPARES FOR IRAN CONFLICT..... AGAIN????

Ok, this story has run perhaps a dozen times in the past ten years and each time it's a modern day version of The Boy Who Cried Wolf!

The problem with that metaphor is the actual ending of the old folk story..

The Wolf really did show up!!!!

Over the past twelve months, I have posted two or three times on the topic of what to look for if Israel was really preparing for a conflict with Iran.

Every time I've addressed this subject, I've ended the conversation with the premise Israel knows all too well what actions may tip it's hand.

Knowing this, the art of cloaking a nation's intentions can become very...very.. complicated.

I won't go back into the discussion of the tactics of " no notice vs scaled vs unlimited options, but it is important to readdress the issue of what option is the most logical.

Simply put, small and fast is easier to conceal from your enemies than large and complex.

Something else has changed since the last time I addressed this issue and it's an extreamly important issue.

Iran's paranoia!!!!!

If we were to go back to the last time the rumor of a pending attack by Israel was published, apx eight months ago, we would have found an Iran that was much more convinced that even was some distance away yet.

The primary reason this logic prevailed at that time was Iran's belief The Israeli government would not move without the support of the US.

It's my opinion, the most drastic change in the theory of pending war between Iran and Israel is Iran's growing belief Israel will attack without the US.

On top of this dire change, I would add the theory Iran may actually be contemplating provoking this conflict to distract the Syrian, Lebanese events.

Short answer... Iran may actually want the conflict to take place.....

The foiled and honestly poorly executed Hezbollah / Qod / operations of a few months ago was a dangerous message that many missed.

I said it then and I will say it again... I believe Iran attempted to goat Israel into attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and that attempt failed.

So, are we truly closer to a conflict between Iran and Israel?

Yes.. I believe we are..

How close???

Someone is going to have to let Benjamin Netanyahu answer that question.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

NOW IT'S ASSAD'S TURN TO "WARN" SOMEONE!

Last night I talked about Turkey's warning to Iran, indirectly, based on concerns over Lebanon and Syria.

Today, it was Assad's turn to warn Lebanon and the GCC and maybe even Turkey.

" If you sow chaos in Syria,  you may be infected by it yourself"!

Assad's correlation of the Arab Spring to someone "Sowing chaos" is a clever way of him creating doubt amongst those in the "other" countries who may worry about their own future.

If it can happen to Syia, it can happen to you!... That is Assad's message.

Some have even interpreted this speech as Assad treating  to send the  same "chaos" to his enemies.

The underling message here may be Iran's actions against the GCC states such as Bahrain.

I am also convinced this is also Assad's way of saying he is willing to continue and most likely increase his actions in his own country.

He played this message at an ideal time.. .on Russian TV.. although his real audience was not the Russian people, but the people of the Gulf Coast.

So, in the past few days, we have witnessed the Saudi's attempt the annexation of Bahrain, something that was not very well thought out and poorly exicuted.

We have seen Turkey warn Iran over it's actions in the region.

Now, we have seen Assad warn the Arab States.

All in all... a lot is taking place at an ever increasing pace and it will become more and more difficult to keep making sense of it all.

In the meantime, AQI will plot the next set of dramatic bombing in Syria. 

Yes... it's is only going to get worse....

If I were the UN Observers, I would be very careful where I go and what road I drive on.

AQI, now in Syria, would love to blow them up and spin the events in Syria right through the roof.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90098

TURKEY'S WARNING ...... TO IRAN!!!

The events of Lebanon over the past few days have not gone unnoticed by Erdogan and Turkey.

His statement of, " whoever views these events through a sectarian window, through an ethnic or ideological window, and whoever adopts an according attitude, is committing a big wrong", is a message to Iran and Hezbollah!

He may have been addressing the issues in Syria, but it's Lebanon that has Erdogan more worried than ever. 

The ability to "control" events in Syria are still somewhat possible although highly unlikely.

What makes the whole problem completely uncontrollable and in reality a catastrophe for the region is violence based on sectarian lines in Lebanon.

What the Shi'ites will find disturbing about this speech is his call for the Shia to be "understanding and compassionate".

If Erdogan sounded one sided in his lecture that's only because he was.

Did we forget he is Sunni?????

The twin bombings in the Syrian capital may have been to focus of his discussion, but the events in Lebanon and the repercussions they could have are giving him a real sense of urgency.

I'm also convinced he knows all too well Iran is probably going to turn up the heat in Bahrain and the Gulf Coast States as much as possible as they try to counter the events in Syria and now Lebanon.

Erdogan may do well to make real peace with the Turkish military and do so soon.

He may need them sooner than he thinks.

It's a hard future when you are pushing Generals into jail cells and then suddenly asked their loyal follower to defend the Turkish leadership.

Sometimes timing is everything!!!

LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN  REACTION.

The news from Lebanon, as predicted, is getting more and more dire!

For months I've commented on the grave consequences for the region if Lebanon where to slide into the Syrian madness.

It now appears that event may be on the verge of taking place.

I could comment about the consequences for nations such as Israel, Turkey ect.. ect.. but it is far more important to readdress the primary issue resulting from these events.

Iran!!!

Again and again I have sounded the alarm about Iran not tolerating the loss of it's proxy

 front for war with Israel.

Miqati is very close to decision time.

Does he stick with the sinking ship named Assad and Hezbollah  or does he begin to move Lebanon away from the madness?

The rumors Iran is now issuing orders to Lebanese Military Commanders are most likely true, and it would be nothing new!!!

He knows Tripoli has always been the canary in the cage for pending trouble in Lebanon and that canary is very sick!!!

So, just how bad is this for the region?

Simple.... it's the one thing nobody wanted to have happen and yet, they all believe it's about to.

So... what does Iran do?

To understand that potential answer, just read the attached story about the GCC.

Saudi understands all to well what Iran will do to attempt to counter the loss of Syria and now, unbelievably, Lebanon..

The GCC understands as well.

Bahrain will become target number one!!!

It's been in the spotlight from time to time, but other more pressing issues have overtaken the media every time.

Early last year, when Iran tried to get Bahrain to become the spotlight issue.... to take pressure off of Assad, Saudi jumped in and made their commitment known to the whole world.

Before Iran could develop the turmoil needed in Bahrain, Syria caught fire and refocused Iranian leadership.

Initially, the GCC set out to shore up their kingdoms fearing the wave of the Arab Spring!

Soon, it became clear to them, the proxy counter by Iran would be along the Gulf States.

Ok.. let's keep this simple!

Lebanon is closer to real violence than at anytime in the past ten years. even worse than 2005 assignations.. .does anyone even remember that event or the current STL issue?

Iran is watching it's worst nightmare come true... the loss of Syria.. the loss of Hamas.. the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah.

Make no mistake... Hezbollah will redirect all of it's energy to address issues in Lebanon and by doing so, Iran dictatorial relationship will be in jeopardy.

The region is about to become a great deal more dangerous.

Keep you eyes on Lebanon!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89972

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8920

THE EXCHANGE OF LETTERS... WHY THE WASTE OF TIME?

Absolutely no one expect this "stunt", by both sides, to accomplish anything.

Positioning one's self to counter the argument, "you are not trying", was the only real goal of this " exchange".

Netanyahu and Abbas know all too well the Administration in the US is focused on November and simply not interested in creating any additional work such as restarting the Quartet with no chance of a progress.

Europe is in the early stages of truly crisis that they can't buy their way out of this time.

The Arab states, GCC, are simply too nervous over Iran and the struggle for he Gulf region to answer the phone calls from Abbas.

Russia and China simply have nothing to gain by addressing the issue.

So..... it looks as if nothing is going to change soon right????

Maybe!!!

If Israel is actually going to take itself into a conflict with Iran, it would be wise to neutralize, to the extent possible, the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Solving this issue is impossible in the short term, but Israel could start the Information Operations / IO / now to show the world there maybe real light at the end of the tunnel.

That is why the issue of Settlements right now would be a good start to selling this theme.

It's vital to Israel that Iran not be allowed to hold the "high ground" of telling the Arab world they will fight for Palestinian statehood.

Take away the image   of Iran being the "liberators" of the Arabs / Palestinians.. something none of the Arabs believe.. and they will stand alone!

Simply put... If Israel is going to 'deal' with Iran, they must be ready to deal with the statehood issue...and thus take away Iran's link to Arab causes...

If there is one thing the Arabs understand its.... Iran is no Arab... at least not yet!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=269756