CAN PARANOIA BRING DOWN THE AL-ASSAD REGIME?

 I was reading this story on CNN today and I found it interesting the reported conflict between Asef, the brother-in-law, and Maher, the Younger, meaner, brother of Bashar.

As I was digesting   what that might mean, when  I then read the part about the strained relationship between Asma, The Syrian First Lady and the Sister in-law, Bushra.

Ok, all the makings of the typical dysfunctional elitist, rich, family.

Just the kind of internal weakness needed to start the fire from within.

This cannot be news to those that know Syria and it's surly not news to the people trying to hold the Al Assad clan together... Iran... The Sunni Business class that refuses  to turn on him....  

Paranoia!!!

I've talked about the danger of such a sickness for the entire region, but paranoia just maybe the key to bringing down the Syrian government.... it wouldn't be the first time it's happened.

In the Middle East.. .blood feuds ... and family feuds run long and deep!!!

Could Asef and Maher be leveraged.... to pull down the empire?

Is someone already taking this track?.. Hmmm.. now who could pull such a stunt off???

If the plan was to get the inner circle under pressure, then why not add a few extra levels of stress?

Many years ago, in one of my former lives... I once convinced a real bad-guy.. that another bad-guy, who he trusted, was giving him up and it seemed both where too dumb to figure it out.

The damage was done... the trust was gone.. and the end result was exactly what I was looking for!

The Rumor Game:

Any Street Cop worth their weight in donuts will tell you the damage you can do to an "outfit" by utilizing the " Rumor Game"!

Just think what rumors could do to a whole group of paranoid elitist?

Rumor: Maher is out to strike a deal with Iran and give up his Brother..

Rumor: Bushra and her husband are out to blame Maher for everything and strike a deal to leave with her Brother's family to a neutral country.

Rumor:  Iran is looking to replace Al - Assad with someone the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would support but would still work with Iran behind the scenes.. more than a rumor!!!!

Rumor: key Syrian Generals are quietly talking to the FSA and SNC to turn over their forces for amnesty!!!

Ok, everyone gets it..

The Rumor Game could be the most powerful weapon in the Syrian conflict right now..

Lets see who knows how to play the game!!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/26/world/meast/assad-family/index.html

IF TRUE.. AND I SAY IF... THEN ITS ANOTHER REAL BAD SIGN!

Ok, I'm going to gamble here and say Egypt is probably telling the truth when they state the two people they arrested for plotting to bomb a ship in the Suez Canal.

The fact that Egypt stopped, or claims to have stopped, such an event might be Egypt's way of showing the West the real value of their partnership at a time when they were relying on continued US military aid.

Adding the storyline of the plot being Iranian and an Israeli ship could be part of the, "see how vital we are to you", plot of this story.

What is really freighting is the fact the story may actually be true!!!

Israeli intelligence has the capability and the relationship with Egypt's military to determine if the story is factual.

If it's true, Israel will make a huge deal out of this event; one that will rival the Saudi Ambassador story.

Ok, lets face the facts.. if this story is true, then Iran and the events of the past six months are truly indicating to the world how far they are willing to go to defend their vision of their future.

If true, I simply don't know how anyone would speculate a military exchange with Iran will be " limited"!!!

These attempts.. are not the actions of a nation thinking of "limited actions".

This story snuck by most given the events in Syria, but it might boil back to the top soon!

 http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-iran-planned-to-bomb-israeli-ship-in-suez-canal-1.420463

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=263219

FEEDBACK FROM A FRIEND.

This is from someone I've worked with in the Middle East in the past. He  has forgotten more about how the region really works than most "Talking Heads" will ever now.

I trusted him at all times and I never allowed myself to show concern with his suggestions or the suggestions of those he called friend.

What he says in this email is more profound to me than anything else I hear from others who I've worked with.

I have also great fears concerning Syria, no matter how things will turn.

Unfortunately with the lack of Western resolve and support on the ground or from the air, the Islamists are just going to gain ground for many reasons:

-First, the amount and level of repression by Assad's men is just

unbelievable:

Bombing whole neighborhoods and cities, then ethnic cleansing involving butchering entire families, gang raping of women to defile Sunni women and to scare others from rebelling and looting and destroying properties on a massive scale.

When any people are confronted with such horrors, it is just normal they will turn to religion and God.

Perfect ground for Islamism to grow and to fester into a Sunni Jihadi movement, even though the demonstrations started out as peaceful and mainly secular.  However Assad has tapped on the West fear of Al Qaeda and has rallied the Alawi sect to defend itself by attacking entire Sunni neighborhoods and committing crimes against humanity.  I heard on Al Jazeera that Damascus Has 25 000 Chabbiha (Thugs) and Aleppo 31 000, who go into areas to clean up, kill, rape and loot with no mercy, and have been out of control.

The Baath regime with its actions, is setting the seeds of Islamic fundamentalism, especially that the most dedicated fighters against Assad are Islamic fighters or guided by the Jihad conception of defending their houses and families.  Now of course you might say Al Qaeda will benefit from such scenario, especially that Al Qaeda or Jihadi groups are on the ground in Syria.

It should be mentioned that Jihadi groups were previously supported by the Syrian regime to go fight US troops in Iraq. Well guess what, the chicken are coming home to roost for the Eye Doctor-dictator.

-Second, the Shiaa (mostly very pro-Iran) have gotten stronger since the Iraq war:  Pro Iranian parties are controlling Iraq since 2004, courtesy of the US invasion of Iraq.  What ensued was an ethnic cleansing of Baghdad and Southern Iraq of major Sunni population groups, mostly done by the Mahdi Army and SCIRI. 

Of course the Iraqi Government was citing de-Baathification and fighting Al-Qaeda, which translate mostly into de-Sunnification (even though Baath was from all religious groups.)

When Iyad Allawi's alliance won the last parliamentary elections, Maliki used the de-baathification again as a tool to disqualify 3 or 4 winning candidates, and therefore turn the elections result to his advantage.

So much for democracy Iranian ayatollahs'style.

Same strategy was used in Lebanon to weaken the winning majority of Saad Hariri's bloc in the last parliamentary Elections.  Hizbollah and their cronies managed to reverse the elections'

results through threats and political

manipulations.  Again, same trend is showing: Ayatollahs' democracy in action.

Now, the Sunni world is wide awake to the Iranian threat, especially after the Syria's massacres, again of mainly Sunni populations (In Homs, Edlib, Daraa, Damascus countryside.)  and again they see the same trend from pro-Iranian Shiaa sectarian parties like in Iraq and Lebanon, which is the threatening or massacring Sunnis.  It is inevitable that there will be an awakening of Sunnis, and the armed faction of it will be definitely Jihadi, but not necessary Salafi. 

The GCC countries are definitely feeling the Iranian threat, and are definitely supporting the Salafi Jihadi trend, For simple reasons:

-First of all, the GCC countries are the prime target of Iran and in their direct line of fire.

-Ideologically speaking, Salafism is GCC made, nurtured and properly funded.

-For practical reasons, Salafi Jihadis will fight, especially that they consider the Shiaa as heretics  and blasphemous.

-Finally, if the Shiia fear something, it is the Salafis (who don't even consider the Shiaa as true Moslems)  and the grand Sunni awakening.

So having said that, the imbalance we created in 2003 by making the Shiia and Iran stronger, need to be counterbalanced in Sunni's eyes by a rise of Sunnis, especially Jihadis (We have to consider that the Sunni educated middle class of Lebanon and Syria are not fighters.)  Who will fight for the Sunnis?  It will be this hardcore Jihadi element who now see the Shiaa and Iran as their main enemy.

Like you said in a previous article, there is a Sunni-Shiaa war going on in the Middle east, staged and funded by Iran.

I don't think there will be a turn back to Sunni quietism.  Now the Sunnis are rallying, Syria was their breaking point, And became the rallying point.

History again is repeating itself in the Middle East!

My initial fears for the event in Syria are growing by the day.

He was responding to this email I sent him last week.

The classic, "damned if you do and damned if you don't" probably applies here.

Finding a balance for support of the resistance in Syria is so incredibly difficult.

The concept the islamist will simply wait to take advantage of the conflict seems to be a foregone conclusion now.

If it was difficult before to get the free world to support the movement, it will become nearly impossible now.

How factual the Islamist issue is will not be the problem.... perception is the issue and perception rules when it comes to the Middle East.

I would love to listen to Israeli leadership discussing the future of Syria.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA_RISING_ISLAMISTS?SITE=AP&SEC

TION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-21-18-03-33

SO... WHAT IS A " REGIONAL WAR"?

If you've been following the events in the Middle East for the past 20 years, you've heard the term, "regional war", over and over and over again.

Let's ask a fundamental question, what is a " regional war"?

When you do the standard Google search you get something along the lines of, " A conflict with two or more countries that involves structural and collateral damage".

When you search US Military Doctrine, you will find a definition written by some Think Tank Academic that resembles a lawyer describing a Baseball game.

But, why is this issue important?

Simple; everybody and their Brother has jumped on the bandwagon, to include me, that the Middle East could be heading for a " Regional War".

Here is my problem!

I am convinced my definition of a Middle Eastern "Regional War" is most likely much different from the ones depicted by the Media Talking Heads or the Academics trying to make it sound so complicated that everyone is forced to buy their book to figure it out.

 Here is the basic problem with finding a definition for " Regional War".

What constitutes an " involved nation"?

Who do we determine the true list of " actors", especially in the murky world of the Middle East where certain " partners" are kept on a low profile?... No not Israel!!

If one nation accuses another of being, "involved" does that make it true?

Who determines who is involved and to what level?

The UN???

Please!!!

The regional war would be over by the time the UN could figure out  something that complex.

 Ok, I could spin this issue around and around and the next thing we would know, I would have a book on the Middle East and be wearing a black Turtleneck Shirt on CNN or FOX... Inside joke!!!

I can't paint you a picture of what everyone else understands a " Regional War" may look like in the Middle East, but I can tell you what I believe one may look like, and even then that is dependent on a stack of variables too large to review.

So, let me pick a scenario and then try and show what my theory of "Regional War" would look like.

Scenario:

Iran executes a Hezbollah backed attack against Israeli citizens, outside of Israel, resulting in a huge loss of life.  

Now I say outside of Israel given I believe this is what Iran is looking to accomplish at this point in time.

Just look at the events of the past three months.

Why would Iran want this method of attack?

Israel's reaction would have the appearance of attacking innocent Lebanese's citizens  given the attack didn't physically originate from Lebanon.

Their goal would be to punish or even possibly eliminate Hezbollah operations in Lebanon.

Ok, at this point in the "regional war".. who are the most physical  players?

Physical Players:

Israel. Lebanon...The Palestinian  Authority, remember they have camps in Lebanon as well... depending on how saver the Israelis respond would determine if these camps would be impacted.  Hezbollah doesn't operate out of these camps, but with a little effort Hezbollah could insure they were targeted.

Is this a "Regional War"????

Again, who are the sideline players? and does their indirect involvement make this a "Regional War"??

Sideline players:  Nations that would be directly  working to limit the conflict.

Turkey.. Egypt... Jordan... US.. Britain... France... Russia... Saudi.. the GCC...

Ah yes... how confusing can this all really get????

Ok, lets push the scenario further.

If Iran's master plan was to have Israel attack Lebanon and the Hezbollah forces, then lets assume they would also involve the factions of Hamas an other radical Gaza units.

A large scale, over 200 in a few hour period, rocket and missile attack is launched from Gaza into Israel and this all happens within two days of the initial Hezbollah attack somewhere else in the world.

Israel strikes into Gaza with a force designed to neutralize any threat coming out of Gaza.

Now, who are the physical players at this point?

Physical Players:

Israel, Lebanon, the PA.. ....... still no real change!!!

Who are the sideline players:

Sideline Players:

Turkey.. Egypt... Jordan... US.. Britain... France... Russia... Saudi.. the GCC..... still no real change!!! Maybe..

Did the escalation now make this a "Regional War"??? no!!!

Would many in media to include the virtual army of " talking head experts" start foaming at the mouth over a "Regional War" threat?

You bet!!!

By now we are probably adding a new level of players...

The " active sideline support players!

Who are they?

Sideline Support players:

Iran.... providing Hezbollah with follow on world wide targeting guidance and logistical support.

Some of the sideline players now become sideline support players..

The US would most likely be providing information to both Israel and several other nations in the region for the primary purpose of limiting the paranoia of escalation. yes.. this has is not new news.  

I bring this up because these are the two key nations that most experts , and I use that term lightly, are currently warning a "Regional War" might involve.

Ok, at this point, we have Israel pounding Hezbollah in Lebanon.. oh ya.. did I mention there are UN Forces in Lebanon??? How fast they can depart the battlefield I hope is a very practiced drill... we have Gaza under a land invasion.... we most likely have some level of armed conflict in the West Bank... we have Hezbollah potentially executing follow on Terror attacks around the world.. if Iran calls for them.. depends on what plan they unleashed. 

this is all starting to get confusing even to me..... but... here is what we don't have and this is the picture most of these so called experts keep depicting or at least have the average citizen thinking!!!!

We don't have Egyptian Tanks pushing through the Sinai...

We don't have the Syrian Air Force being shot down in one day by Israel.. Old news...

We don't have Jordanian troops backing up Egyptian ground troops...

We don't have Iranian armored divisions crossing into Iraq..

We don't have Iraq supporting anyone for any reason.

We don't have Saudi forces moving on Israel.

In my book.. by my doctrine.. we do not have a "total warfare / regional war"..

Again.. .what is a " Regional War"?????

yes.. .we have a war unlike Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom, but we do not have 1973.

what we do have is an event that is just as deadly as 1973 if not more so... for you see.. the weapons of war are vastly improved and the body counts can rise just as quickly and the buildings can fall just a fast as they did in 1973.

Ok, here come the icing on the cake and then  I will tell you why it will still not be a "Regional War" like the one the talking heads keep depicting.

The decision could then be made by Israel that given their level of activation for such an event and given the pending nuclear issue with Iran.. Israel decides to solve that issue at the same time.

Israel decides, as they have historically done before, to take their nation to " total warfare" and deal with Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran to the fullest extent possible.

Now, who are the physical players?

Physical players:

Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the PA

Sideline Support Players:

US, Britain, France... do they support the attacks on Iran? perhaps logistically, but the main drive would be to keep the Straits open.  limited support would be the most likely course of action.. thus... sideline support.

Everyone else is completely immersed in keeping the event limited.. calming the world economic markets to the extent possible... in other words.. they are looking out for themselves.. to include the Arab States..

There is no Arab army... There is no Arab Air Force.. there is no Arab Navy and this is not an Arab War!!

This is why Israel will be willing to go to war.. This is why nations like Saudi and Jordan, will let this event take place..

When the dust settles.. there is money to be made and that is what drives the Middle East.

ANOTHER SNAPSHOT ON THE IMPORTANCE OF LEBANON TO THE REGION..

        

Two  nights ago,  I mentioned I would update my theory on  how Iran might leverage Lebanon to minimize the impact of a pending Israeli attack on Iran.

When I looked back at my previous post on how events might unfold in a Middle Eastern / Regional War / there is not much I would really change.

Now, after reading about the " Internal Look" exercise from Central Command, an exercise concept I have taken part in with that command in the past, I've discovered a few talking points that concern me.

Now, I've not read the After Action on the Exercise, but there are  some common, reoccurring, events in most of these " war games" that could  lead to the wrong impression of how  a true Middle Eastern " Regional War" might take place and what the outcomes may be!

For example, most of these War Games are developed and then executed by individuals who have a very " kinetic warfare" background.

Often words like, "Asymmetric" and " unconventional" are sprinkled into the exercises ether to avoid criticism or to insure the pre exercise briefing is approved by senior leadership.

This comment is not meant to slander senior exercise members or the leaders they work for, but the simple fact of the matter is most people are limited to what they are comfortable with and this is especially true when the time comes  to express  your ideas with others who will judge your product.

The age old saying of,  stick with what you know", becomes the norm.

The next common practice of these War Games is to execute them in a Alliance vacuum.

Most of them have a classification level that prevents some of the key players in the region from being partners in the development and execution of the exercise.

What happens is a group of US personal who are accredited with being " experts" at knowing the capabilities and limitations of identified partners are tasked to play the part of the " Allies".

Often this process is acceptable to a certain point, but without the "real deal" it's a risk factor that must not be lost on the outcome of the exercise.

In reality, there is simply no substitution for real players.

Ok, so let me see if I can paint you a picture as to why these two issues can come into play as we look at the importance of Lebanon.

If someone was to design a war game where the baseline assumption is Israel utilizing a first strike plan, then Lebanon and it's importance becomes one of the very first issues that must be addressed.

Israel could not afford to not to be prepared to neutralize a full scale attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza, even if Israel first strike is a limited campaign.

Israel would have to leadership that would be willing to assume the risk of a limited response by Iran give a Israeli limited attack. A huge risk in my book!!!

For the sake of argument, if Iran limited their response, Israel would still need forces allocated to dealing with Lebanon and Gaza.

This preparation would be visible to the thousands who would be funneling information back to Iran.

The act of preparing to deal with Lebanon and Gaza would drive the paranoia level in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran to levels that would make overreaction more than just a possibility.

Ok, you are starting to get the picture here.

The ability to fight a limited conflict in the region is nearly impossible.

It's so hard to rationalize and in my opinion impossible to believe Israel would risk a repeat of 2006 , 2008...

All or nothing.... I think that is the issue and it's the forces / Hezbollah forces / in Lebanon that make this limited concept nearly impossible to believe in.

Lebanon.... the loaded gun that Israel simply cannot afford to risk leaving alone!!

There you have it... Lebanon is key and it will remain key.

What factor Lebanon played in the Re-Look War Game, I have no idea or I wouldn't say, but if it was not a key factor, then the planners committed a grave error.

In the next two days or so, I will give my explanation of what is a "Regional War".

I'm fairly convinced most people, to include the media, has a misconception of what a Regional War is in terms of the Middle East.

The attached story on "relook" is interesting and the other links are to older post on the topic of conflict scenarios.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/military/macdill/centcom-war-game-sees-dire-results-of-an-israeli-first-strike-on-iran/1220857

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/01/limited-warfare-with-limited-damage.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/israel-s-tactical-review-combinations.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/tactical-side-of-conflict-tonight-i.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/02/options-and-consequences-of-options-if.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/09/iran-is-not-only-factor-last-night-i.html

ONCE AGAIN THE TOPIC OF LEBANON, SYRIA AND IRAN!!

Over the past ten months, I have commented on the complex relationship between the events in Syria and the future impact on Lebanon.

The attached article is a fair assessment of what Lebanon means not only to Syria, but to the region as well.

To reiterate what my theory on what Lebanon means to Syria, we must once again look at Iran.

As I have said over and over and over... Iran cannot continue on it's current path without the leverage of Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and what faction of Hamas that is not returning to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Having said that, with each passing day, things change to include the attitudes of Nation States such as Russia and China.

The importance of Syria to Russia is not the same as the importance of Syria to Iran.

The same holds true for China and in China's case, it's far easier to see a future where China turns on Syria for the sake of future oil contracts from the region.

So, what does that have to do with current events in Lebanon?

Again, I will make the point of Iran's needs!!!!

Iran needs the ability to launch a proxy conflict with Israel prior to trying to adsorb an attack from Israel.

If Iran needs Lebanon to become yet another battleground, then my theory is it will happen!

If Iran needs to hold onto Syria at all cost, and they do, then making Lebanon a battlefield is again the option.

Ok, now everyone in Lebanon knows this and the tension can only be getting worse by the day.

Picking sides in Lebanon was an issue long before the events in Syria began to boil and old memories of Syrian occupation still run deep.

I use to love to ask the Saudi's, " what is the name of the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon"?

If you read through my post, you will see this is not the first time I have had this conversation about events in Lebanon, but it's worth repeating because each day is a new day and each new day could be the day the conflict switches to Lebanon.

My theory remains, if Iran feels Israel is about to take action, it will launch the Lebanon, Gaza option and force Israel to execute a three front war.

How they might pull this off is a important topic and one I will dive into the next time I post.

My theory is I better do so quick or it might be a historical posting and not a prediction.

 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2012/1089/re5.htm

A CEASE-FIRE THAT MAY NOT HOLD!

Two days ago, I spoke of the unrealistic concept called " compromise".

This is the world that is usually used when nations or groups are trying to develop a

 " Cease-Fire"!

You need a " compromise" in order to achieve a " Cease-Fire".

The problem is, a Cease-Fire is often utilized as a Re-supply or Reorganization for follow on actions.

In this most recent event coming from Gaza, it is hard to tell if this utilization concept is being utilized or not, but we may soon see.

The reality of how many so called splinter groups are in Gaza is not a recognized excuse for why the Cease-Fire may not hold.

These so called "splinter groups" are still armed by Iran and even if they are not dirrectly controlled by Iran, it's crazy to think for a single second they are not given a green light to continue operations.

So, if someone wants to tell the Israelis, as I am sure Hamas and Egypt are trying to, these "splinter groups" cannot be controlled.... well... we all know by now what Israel's reaction will be.

As I said two days ago, if this action is truly a stepping stone to Iran turning up the heat, then the Israeli reaction will be based upon the damage the continue attacks create.

I found two other events from today interesting and worrisome.

One was the capture of yet another Terror Team supported by Iran, this time in Azerbaijan.  http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/03/14/22-arrested-in-azerbaijan-plot-against-u-s-and-israeli-embassies/

The pattern of Iranian backed teams is at a tempo unlike anything the world has seen from Iran or Hezbollah. 

It is more and more obvious to me the mission behind these teams, world wide, is to goat Israel into taking action.

Side note; I still wonder if Iran really feels they are ready for what that "action" may become?

The second was the reported meeting between Hamas and Hezbollah.

It's reported the meeting was to discus Syria, Gaza and Iran.

I'm not sure that was the real purpose behind this meeting, if it did take place.

My hunch is Hezbollah has been tasked to try and keep Hamas in the Iranian camp and this meeting was an attempt to keep the unnatural alliance.

The danger comes from Israel interpretation of this meeting taking place at a time when rockets and missiles continue to come out of Gaza.

Remember my theory of unintended consequences when extremely paranoid nations are at the edge of conflict.  http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=261818

Ok, here is my prediction and it has not changed for several months now.

If Israel suffers a tragic loss of life attack at the hands of Hezbollah or Hamas "splinter groups", then the fuse will quickly burn towards a Regional War...

Remember, Israel is finished with 2006, 2008 type of conflicts!!!!

I just hope Iran realizes this.

  http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=261905

BATTLE LINES FOR THE MIDDLE EAST... HAVE THEY BEEN DRAWN?

Two days ago, Kofi Annan commented that achieving a settlement in Syria would be " difficult".

Perhaps he should have spoke the truth and used the word, "Impossible"!

Peace may come to Syria and even the Middle East.. Inshallah... but the "Settlement" seems to have no meaning in the region.

When " Settlement" is achieved, it is historically short-lived... short in relative terms for a region with nearly five thousand years of history. 

So, maybe it's time to stop to think about where this event in Syria is leading?

Perhaps it's time to ponder what the Iranian nuclear program really means to the rest of the world?

Should we also consider the Tsar of Russia and his drive to corner the world oil market, at least the markets near him and the Stans/ Middle East are in what he considers his "sphere of influence".

And last but not least.. should we entertain the concept of a Muslim Faith Civil War... Sunni / Shia??

Now, each of these issues has it's own set of champions... leaders and followers who are convinced their issue is top priority  for the region.

Each on it's own merit requires  some level of attention, but none on it's own sets the course for the rest of the world!

It's only once they  all are  applied in a single formulary, does an event that has the rest of the world in jeopardy,  become a true risk.

The words have already been spoken, but the Middle East has truly become the " Perfect Stormm"..

The question becomes.... does it hit the city or does it skirt the countryside?

Do the events that could take place in the Middle East lead to a collapsed world economy.. based on the disruption of oil?

Can a region that has biblical support, become the cataclysmic trigger to a world changed forever?

Can nations that today do not intend to war with each other stumble into a war that even if short-lived, leads to economic disaster.

History is a wise Teacher to those that listen..

Months ago I spoke of the Excuse the Assignation of Arch Duke Ferdinand brought about.... Thus the History!!!

As we sit tonight at look at the travesties of Homs. and Syria.. as we listen to Israel warn the world they are close to doing the unthinkable.... what are the world's options?

A regional war must be avoided.. everyone agrees..

How to avoid a regional war.... That is a far more difficult issue.

More issues are coming unraveled than are being pieced together..

We are running out of fingers and the cracks grow larger in the dam. 

Smart people cannot afford to rest... people who are willing to listen and trust must not be allowed to step away from the table.

All options... must be reviewed.

Compromise.. the key to finally finding a " Settlement" must be the goal.

The problem will be.. "compromise" and Settlement" have a five thousand year history of being short-lived.  

The next word all parties will be forced to the table over is, " Sacrifice".. the word that usually shows up after the dead are counted. 

  

WHAT AIR OPTIONS DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD REALLY HAVE?

I promised a friend I would readdress the issue of Air Operations against the killing machine taking place in Syria.

I will keep this as simplistic as I can so those that read it can see what the options are compared to the risk, and to be honest, the risk are far greater than the options.

When I am finished, I will give one glimmer of hope, but it just may be that one glimmer that allows the rest of the world to act.

Ok, here is the down and dirty.

If you want to send the right message to Russia, Iran and the Eye Doctor and his Brother, the one really calling the shots, then you strike targets that are supporting the killing machine that is surrounding the cities.

Strike the supply routes, strike the main roadways the Syrian Army is using to move support to the North.  Cover them in cluster bombs.

Be ready for the Syrian news showing innocent people being killed by these attacks.

Have the briefing ready to go that shows what was used and where it was used and do so before the Syrian press get the false stories out.

Get this information out to the UN as soon as possible or even tell them it's going to take place just prior to the attack, like maybe 20 min prior.

Make the troops manning the artillery and the tanks realize the retreat will cost them their lives, thus putting the pressure on them to surrenders or just walk away from the equipment, much like the Iraqi soldiers did in Desert Storm!.

Conduct these strikes with weapons platforms that can penetrate the Syrian Air Defense Systems such as cruse missiles and such.

Avoid manned aircraft platforms with the exception of standoff options such as B52s and B2s.

Avoid destroying the Syrian Air Defense system for that would simply drive up their fear of being unable to defend the nation.

What I am talking about here is a large, fast, quick, one time strike.

A message would be sent...

"Shock and Awe" without six months of planning... simply not needed now days..

Strike the ability to continue the assault on Homs or another city.... not all at once.

Saving every city is simply too complicated and a step too far.

Now, the point of this type of attack is not to show Al Assad what can happen to him.

The point is to show his military leaders what awaits them.

After a few days of nothing but words from the Russians and the Iranians.. the Syrian Military Commanders will have to make a choice; Stay with Al Asssad and destroy Syrians' ability to defend the country or turn on him and negotiate.

Our trick will be to not do something as asinine as we did in Iraq; don't toss out the whole military leadership and leave the country to idiots like we did we with Debathificatoin in Iraq.

Tell the FSA and the SNC that some of the leadership must stay or the support is off.

How bad to they want the killing to stop?

Nobody in this world gets everything their way every time they want it.

Compromise is a word they must understand or they will continue to be slaughtered.

Here comes the dangerous part!!!

If Iran chose to fight it's coming battle with Israel and the US in Syria and not in Iran and not over their nuclear program, then they will not stand by why the rest of the Worlds far more advanced military machine devastates the front line units of Syria.

Russia is not going to fight a 'proxy" war with the rest of the world, but the Iranian event would give Putin exactly what he desires... 150.. 200 per barrel oil and the chance to be the " peace maker"..

Can the world strike the Syrian killing machine without the risk of immediate losses?

yes..

Can the word do so without driving the Middle East into a Regional war?

Maybe?

Ok. in closing... here is the one hint of optimism I alluded to in the beginning!!

Iranian military commanders are loyal followers of the regime, but the rank and file are young... and they have dreams of a world as they see it, not as the "old men" see it.

If Iran is pushed to the brink of a war and the youth of the military truly are lead to believe they are never going to see a normal life after that war, will they follow?

Are they devout nationalist??

Are they all fanatical Fundamentalist?

Or, are they mostly young and full of life!!

I honestly don't know,  but it may be the only saving grace we can count on.

The whole area is simply boiling!!!! 

ESCALATION OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?

By now, nearly everyone realizes the Middle East is far from, "normal", with normal being periods of violence, separated by periods of harsh words. followed up by meaningless meetings... then back to periods of violence.

It's seems to be a timeless metaphor  when we hear, ' The Middle East is a Tinderbox'!!!

These are usually the overexerted words pouring out of the mouths of some "talking head"  looking for  a paycheck from one of the news programs.

Unfortunately, after years and years of hearing this redundant comment, it's probably truer than it has ever been.

Time and time again, I have talked about the danger of Iran picking a fight to keep the devastating loss of Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah from taking place.

In the past few months, the discussion of splits inside Hamas have been examined over and over and over....

Does Hamas split with part going into partnership with Abbas and the Muslim Brotherhood and the other more radical branch of Hamas staying the course with Iran and  Hezbollah?

Is it about true regligous beliefs and there splits inside Hamas or is it about young radicals who simply don't wont to give up the vision of killing Jews?

Two months ago, I made the statement Iran would rather see a split Hamas than lose their strategic location and dedication.

I commented that Iran doesn't need the whole Hamas organization, but they do need the radical slice.

Gilad Shalit was a key figure for Iran's slice of Hamas...

His ties to Lebanese Hezbollah were undeniable.

If Iran could live with a split Hamas, then members like Shalit were vital to Iran's plan.

No one understood this more than Israel.

So, why did they kill him now?

Why did they take the appearance of striking the first blow in a potential violent breakout event?

Why play into the hands of Iran by striking first?

Simple.....

Israel is not in the business of accepting causalities in order to prove to the world they were right about a pending threat!!!

A concept that must not be overlooked as Israel threatens to take action against Iran's Nuclear program.

Sometimes, the "message" is sent inside a smaller event, and this may be exactly what Israel is doing right now.

I am convinced that is just what happened!!

Is now a dangerous time for Israel to take such bold preemptive actions in Gaza?

Yes!!!

Is it possibly playing right into the  Iranian plan of forcing Israel to be the Aggressor???

Yes!!

Does Israel understand this risk?

Yes!!

In my viewpoint, Israel just sent the message to Iran...

To me, Israel's message was this; "If you think we will not become the aggressor for sake of world opinion... you are wrong... dangerously wrong"!!!

Gaza is more dangerous now than it has ever been, yet Israel sent a strong message..... NO... Israel sent a WARNING!!!

Lets see how Iran hears it..

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/03/201239191418231164.html

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=261152

THE INSANITY OF SYRIA'S LOGIC

Within the past few days, I have read and heard the most ridicules and frankly poorly scripted excuse as to why the Syrian Military utilized Heavy, field artillery units against the city of Homs and the suburb area of Bab Amr.

To keep things simple, the Al Assad government storyline was based on, "Terrorist" hiding inside the city!!!!

Lets think about that for just a minute.

Lets suppose a group of armed " Terrorist" barricaded themselves in Lower Manhattan.

Lets suppose the US Government had information that some of the people in Lower Manhattan were, "sympathetic" / passively sympathetic  as most Women and Children are.

Does any rational person believe for a minute the proper way to react to such an event is to call in the United States Army's Field Artillery units accompanied by Tanks and level Lower Manhattan????

This argument of " Terrorist" being in Homs and Bab Amr even if true does not address the deliberate decision to murder every, Hostage" around the " Terrorist" in order to eliminate the " Terrorist"..... for you see.. if the world is to take Al Assad at his word, then he must admit the Syrian Government had and has absolutely no remorse over killing the innocent Syrians who just happen to be in the Homs, Bab Amr..

When, "Terrorist" are hiding in a school.. do you bomb the school??

Now, let me try to explain why I think Al Assad used and will continue to use such disproportionate tactics.

First off, and most importantly, he does't care about the people in these cities and towns..

They are all his  "cattle" and if he must kill a few here and there to keep the "herd" in line... so be it!!!

Secondly, his tactics are inherited.

Like Father.... like Son!!! to include his Brother....

Bombing a city is a tactic his supporters can and obviously support... I.E.. The Russians.... just ask the people of Crozny..

" Kill a few hundred  to make a few hundred thousand fear you"... That is Al Assad.

Ok, let me give some hope to those who are trying to weather Al Assads Rapture!

I firmly believe we have seen a fundamental change in Al Assad's governments tactics for a reason based on desperation.

You see...... when you can no longer trust your ground troops to follow your orders....when you have your Commanders informing you their troops grow tired of  the face to face killing of fellow Syrian Citizens... when the rumors of mass defections become more than rumors.. .then you must take action.

Two things must happen!!!

First... you must speedup the process... crush the conflict as quickly as possible or risk losing the bulk of your militaries support... Thus the use of disproportionate  force.

Secondly... you must remove your forces from face to face murder!!!!

Allow the units to kill from a distance and kill with little knowledge of who they are killing.

Take away the troops ability to see the truth.. take away their contact with the outside world and do not let them communicate with their families.. .especially their Mothers or Sisters or Daughters... thus.. .again.. the use of distant weapons.. Field Artillery..

Finally; If you can inflict the overwhelming force with limited unit involvement, utilizing "specialized units, then you can control the flame that spreads desertion.

And when it is all said and done, and you forces move into the area to, "clean up", make sure your state controlled media has a well thought out story line about the damage left behind by the " Terrorist"... and the Atrocities they committed.  

Those stories are not for the Free World to believe.

 They are for the Syrian people to hear and more importantly for the troops to see and hopefully believe.

Yes... Al Assad  use of distant killing machines is a sign of how desperate he and his government  has really become.

MOTHER RUSSIA NEW TSAR????

It's interesting how fast and how complicated the talk of Putin not being

"legitimate" has become.

Putin is wiser than most of our modern day political leaders realize and in

fact most of them do not remember a time with Putin ran the most ruthless,

complicated organization in the world... the KGB...

Some of the early indicators that showed Putin knew what he was going to be

up against really came to the surface last week.

As a Master Manipulator, Putin shaped two stories  that hinted how he would counter

the opposition plotting against him.

One was the story of the foiled assignation plot against him and the second

was the discovery of what he called ' fake You Tube clips showing corruption

during the elections even though the elections had not been held yet.

Both stories were brilliantly scripted, both with an overall theme of

someone or some government was out to stop him from taking Mother Russia to

a new level!

His next hint came not soon after that.

His speech on the night of the election had a dire warning imbedded in it....

that is if anyone was listening.

His comment on how "others" / insert the US here / who continued to attempt

to  disrupt the government of Russia had failed and would fail in the future was yet another indication of how he planned to rule.

Again, we must remember, this is a man who had the entire KGB machine at his fingertips smack in the middle of the Cold War.

This is a man who formed his personality and his leadership skills inside

the KGB.

This is a man who is convinced the Russian version of the Arab Spring is

perhaps just around the corner; a man who believes only he can dictate what

"change" should mean to Russia.

This is a man who lived and lives his life in a version of paranoia unknown

to most Americans.

It is probably more than accurate to see others already referring to him as

the " New Tsar" of Russia.

His weapons are many, but one stands out.

Oil is his tool for rebuilding Russia to the vision he tried to achieve

inside the KGB.

Oil is the weapon he will use against his enemies.. just ask Europe!!!

It is  his paranoia and his drive for Mother Russia that  will make his stance on

issues in the Middle East hard to accept, but easy to understand.

In the long run... 150 dollar a barrel oil is good for Russia... and it's

even better for a Tsar who is out to rebuild his homeland.

Iran and Syria..... it all spells crisis and crisis in the Middle East

spells $100+ a barrel.... exactly what the Tsar is looking for.

A Middle East on the verge of a regional war is a world that doesn't care

about crushed demonstrations in Moscow!!!

Yes.. in my book... the Tsar is back and this particular Tsar may become the

most famous one of all.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/03/20123664929140327.ht

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