A SIGNIFICANT MOVE, BUT IS IT TRUE???

For the Syrian Freedom Movement to reach out, or at least talk as if they are reaching out to Hezbollah, is a very important event.

Burhan Ghalioun may or may not speak for the whole movement and that is one of the factors this is hurting the Freedom Movement's cause.

Regardless, the idea of the SNC seemingly changing it's attitude towards Hezbollah is absolutely a disastrous turn of events for Al Assad and Iran.

With Hamas braking ranks with Syria last week, and most likely Iran as well, Iran and Al Assad can ill afford to have Hezbollah tantalized by an offer from their enemy.

Now, pulling Hezbollah away from Al Assad would mean they would have to pull away from Iran and I would have to see proof of that before I even came close to believing it.

None the less, Hezbollah is more about Hezbollah and their hold on Lebanon than going down with a sinking ship such as Al Assad. ( see my post from last week about Hezbollah and the Titanic.)

Hezbollah has not lost sight of the fact their credibility in the Middle East is greatly damaged with their continued support for Al Assad.

The concept of the SNC offering Hezbollah a continued " friend" in Syria after the fall of Al Assad, is at least a  tempting conversation!!!!

This almost seems like a SNC version of, " Ether you are with us or you are against us"!!

The Sunni tide cannot be stopped by Hezbollah and if Hezbollah wishes to survive the wave, they may need to make new friends.. at least temporarily..

All in all, I brilliant move by the SNC..

I didn't think of this when I talked about the future of Hezbollah last week.

Good move SNC, but don't forget.... Iran gets a vote!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259894

HOW TO DEFEAT THE AL ASSAD MACHINE

Part Three:

After talking to a few "friends" dealing with the events in Syria day by day , I decided to continue the topic of how to counter and defeat the murderous events in Syria.

How to defeat Air field operations.

The Resistance Fighters, although I would recognize them as Freedom Fighters now, have shown the skillcraft of attacking the Syrian Air Force Bases.

The problem was, they were after the intelligence operations there and not the Air Field itself.

Tactically speaking, the best and most basic way to defeat Air Power, ether rotor wing or fixed wing, is to never let it get off the ground.

by simple design all fixed wing aircraft are easy targets to ground, direct fire, operations and the runways are easily targets for indirect fire ops such as mortars.

Simple hit and run operations against Air fields can be conducted from nearly the maximum range of the automatic weapons and still have devistating effects.

Target the fuel farms if at all possible at the same time the aircraft are being targeted.

Once the attack is underway, do not linger!!!  Attack and leave.

Have observers who can spot the reaction forces, for this will allow you to maximize your escape timeline.

Hit the Air Field from more than one direction at the same time.

Have a small element that places fire on the reaction force.

A force under fire moves and apx 20 percent of the speed of a force not under fire.

Rake the area you are firing into. Do not aim at just one target.. This creates far more confusion.

This is big... Do not use ammunition with tracer rounds.

The damage cause by the rounds is great enough when dealing with fixed wing air craft and the tracer rounds only give away one's position.

As I have said before, have a place to hide if you can't get completely away from the attack.

Have the ability to "blend" with the local population at all times.

Leave the weapons if you need to.

You can find weapons far easier than you can replace skilled attack teams.

Night time attacks from a distance that last less than five minutes have a devistating psychological impact on an enemy.

An hour after you are gone, the enemy will still move, act and think you are still there.

Trust me this works!!!  I trained for these type of events for years.  

HOW TO DEFEAT THE AL ASSAD MACHINE

Part Two:

A few weeks ago, I talked to the issue of how to defeat the killing machine run by the Al Assad dictatorship.

After talking with a few " friends" of the movement, I promissed I would address this process once again, with perhaps a few additional items of advice.

First, let me start by saying it is far easier to sit thousands of miles away and dictate how someone should place their life on the line for the sake of their families and their loved ones.

The old expression in the US is, "talk is cheap"!

It is for that reason I can only hope these words add value to those that are truly risking everything for freedom, a freedom that does not have a single definition.. it is not a Western concept... it is not a Eastern concept... it is not a political concept... it is the essences of being Human; thus those that suppress freedom are not human.

When I last spoke on the concept of defeating Al Assad's machine, I started with some very basic tenants of conflict that cannot be broken.

For the sake of clarity, I will go over them again before I move on to tactical issues.

THE THREE "NEVERS"!!

1.  Never lose your sense of humanity. Do not brutalize anyone other than the armed enemy facing you, and when they drop their arms, show compassion at all cost; for this is the difference between what you are fighting and what you are fighting for.

2.  Never let someone join your cause that has their own agenda and if they do, show the world they are not with you but yet another element of suppressing  the path to freedom. Expose them!!!

3.  Never lie to the people you are trying to free!!!

TACTICS AL ASSAD CANNOT DEFEAT!!

Document any act of inhumanity and take the risk of bringing impartial observers, such as the media with you.

If your own people commit a " wrong" own it and show the world you will not allow it to continue. let it be documented and let the process of fixing it be documented as well. take the tool / weapon / of " accusations out of the hands of the Syrian Government. Tell the story before Al Alssad's supporters get the chance to shape the event.  again.... let a third party show how you owned the event and made changes to prevent it again. Hide nothing!!

  If you can prove Iranian support, do it at all cost and document it with a third party if at all possible.

TACTICS AL ASSAD'S MILITARY CANNOT DEFEAT!!

1.  Never let them rest!!

            Never let the " rear" rest!!!  early in the morning, pre dawn!! Fast. and leave.

            Let there be no "peace", but limit the actions to those that are armed who face  you.

              When conducting operations to the rear, do not attack the unarmed and do not  allow others to do so.

2.  Know where you can hide after an attack and do so quickly. have an " exit plan".

3.  Keep attacks simple and spend little time planning them.

            the longer you take, the greater the risk it will be compromised

            As I said a few weeks ago, this calls for "specially trained members who trust each other.

4. Fight at night and never fight the armor at night.

            Fight the troops outside the armor that are defending them.

            If there is no one outside the armor defending it and you do not have the weapons to defeat the armor, then let it go. Do not lose valuable lives for the sake of heroics against armor.

5.  Pick fights near the border with Turkey or Jordan.

            Force these countries to worry about the Syrian actions.

            Hit and Run tactics that let these two nations realize how close the conflict is.

            Do not run to a safe zone in their countries unless you have casualties and then drop them off and leave.

            Show these two countries you are not hiding behind their borders and that you are willing to keep from drawing them into the conflict.....Win their minds by not making the media pressure them into action.

6.  When you capture an enemy, show compassion and document it as soon as possible.

7.  Turn some of them lose when possible and tell them they are not the enemy.. .Al Alssad and his followers are.  the word will spread like wild fire!!!!

Again, these are easy sometimes mindless comments from thousands of miles away, but they represent " ideas" that should be reviewed and modified to achieve the desired goal for the Syrian People.

Last but not least... be prepared to go this fight alone!!!!

Do not let anyone in to "help" that is not there to do anything other than free the Syrian people and be prepared for Iran to wage a war on your ground if needed.

If Iran does, let them.. .this will unite the Syrian people and Al Alssad will fall!

Never...Ever.... lose your compassion for others... You enemy is only an enemy until you convince them not to be one!!!

As soon as that happens.. your hand much reach out... You must take the risk!!!

HEZBOLLAH.. REARRANGING THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC!!! 

Two days ago, I talked about the apparent split between Hamas and Syria and the repercussions of such an event on the entire region.

For months now, the general opinion has been, 'as Syria goes... so goes ... Lebanon'...

The problem was and continues to be, most people don't understand what that could mean to the rhythm of the Middle East.

As the two attached articles point out, the split inside the leadership of Lebanon is growing and could quickly reach a crisis point.

What does this have to do with Hamas splitting with Syria?

Simple, if Hamas has made a clean break and that break is based on Sunni / Shia lines, then Hezbollah ends up on the other side of playing field for Hamas.

When a group such as Hamas makes such a bold move, it only puts pressure on Hezbollah and it's goal of maintaining control in Lebanon.

The fact that Lebanese leadership is split over support for Syria is not new.  

The increased pressure on Hezbollah by the actions of Hamas is the new twist!!!!

Hhaled Abu Toameh brings up an outstanding point in his article attached.

There never was any 'love' for the the PLO inside Syria and in fact the age old Arab tactic of manipulating a so called 'Friend' in order to achieve a self-interest was always priority one for the Al Assad family.

The Al Assad families goals have never been based on religion or nationalistic pride and only a fool would think so.

The goal has always been for the family and it's loyal friends to maintain a vast fortune.

 From being the ruling party; not unlike any other dictatorship in the world, was out to secure personal power and wealth.

This is the legacy of the Al Assad family in the Middle East and everyone that lives there knows it and that includes Hezbollah and Hamas.

The mirage of Hamas and Syria was forged on brittle steel just like the Titanic and just like the Titanic this brittle foundation has crumbled.

Hezbollah sits aboard the Sister Ship, HMHS Britannic.. this time called Lebanon.. and sees the Titanic... Syria going down fast.

So, now the question becomes, what does Hezbollah do?

Do they rearrange the Deck Chairs or do they jump ship while they still can?

Here is their real dilemma and they know it!!!

Who do they jump ship to??????

If Hezbollah decides not to turn Lebanon into  a battle ground for the sake of Syria and ultimately  Iran, the Persians, then what alternative to they have???

My bet...... Look at the IRA in Ireland...

Go " Political"... Go legit...

Go the route of the Muslim Brotherhood and state you are willing to meet the Sunni and the rest of the world in the middle!

Some are going to ask.... " would this really work"???

My answer... Ask the Murderer Jerry Adams!!!

Hezbollah has now way out...

Hamas has shown the way....

Will Hezbollah follow????

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259357

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259360

AS THE OLD SAYING GOES, " I TOLD YA SO"!!!!

If this story is correct, and I believe it probably is, then the tables are really begining to turn in the Middle East and that is not all good news.

At face value Israel may see this split of Hamas from Syria and most likely Iran as a good thing, but the rest of the word and in the end Israel must really start to worry about a Sunni / Shia conflict.

Yesterday I spoke of the possible split in Hamas and how it may happen suddenly.

It could very well be the radical side of Hamas has decided not to split and to keep their allegiance based on their Sunni faith; and thus side with the Muslim Brotherhood.

If this has truly become a reality and the split in Hamas did not take place, then Iran will go into a full fledged panic!

" No Hezbollah and no Iran"!!!!

A statement by the masses at Friday prayers is a shocking message to Iran and to the rest of the Gulf.

The problem could quickly become one for the Arab League and the GCC to figure out.

In their drive to support the Sunni of Syria, have they set in motion a Regional Sectarian war between the Sunni and the Shia?

Again the law of Second Order Effects comes into play.

Did the AL and the GCC ever truly stop to think about how this movement may get out of hand?

More importantly, was this a designed plan by the Gulf States to prevent the sequential spread of the Arab Spring along the Gulf States?

If we do not hear from the more radical side of the Hamas movement that they do not agree with this announcement, then things will move quickly.

Iranian funding will stop instantaneously, if it has no already done so!

I'm not sure there is anyone left in Syria for Al Assad to expel.

Iran without Hamas means an Iran without the Gaza for attacking Israel.

Iran without Al Assad to feed Hezbollah, means an Iran without Lebanon land to attack Israel from.

The loss of Hezbollah's hold on Lebanon, means an Iran without a proxy battlefield. 

Their common enemy is Israel, but the two sides, shia and Sunni, could be  about to enter a fight to see who will lead the movement!

As a side note; Turkey must quickly decide what this announcement means to them!

If they didn't have input in the ongoing conversations between the MB and the PA / Hamas, and I don't think they did, then they must react soon.

I want to end this discussion by saying just how important this announcement may be to the rest of us.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259264

THE CONTINUING THREAT OF A SPLIT IN HAMAS!

It appears the threat of a potential split inside Hamas continues.

To keep this story  simplistic, it continues to be about the part of Hamas that is drawing closer to the MB along with the Pa and that faction of Hamas that is wishing to side with Iran and the more radical elements of some of the Sunni groups.

The question continues to be, is this potential split an advantage for the West or a dangerous turn of events?

From Iran's perspective, they would not require  the entire Hamas organization loyalty  to Iran in order to conduct operations against Israel.

If we accept that fact, then the split may take place sooner than we think and the PA will continue its process of becoming the Palestinian MB. ( My opinion of where Abbas is heading.)

So, the real friction becomes, who controls what ground in Gaza?

Who gets to keep the tunnels and the funds that come from that smuggling operations?

The tunnels are vital to continuing the flow of arms into Gaza, so we should think the more radical element of Hamas will not relinquish this slice of land.

Now, it can be argued the amount of arms needed to start a conflict with Israel are already in place, but remember... more than just arms pass through those tunnels.

Truly the lifeline for Gaza is made up from some percentage of goods passing.

Would this allow the more radical element of Hamas to control the commerce of Gaza?

Would the PA and the split faction of Hamas in Gaza allow this?

Egypt and the MB can address this to some extent by opening the flow of above ground trade into Gaza, but that would take coordination with Israel.

Israel must chose it's battles carefully given the situation with Iran and being seen as not reaching out to a PA/ Hamas "reformed" organization on the simple matter of trade would be a real risk.

It's is clear to see, a split Hamas is a far more complex issue than most would understand.

The issue of Hamas' struggles are not even making it to the Western Press, but then again why should they... all eyes are on Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=259159

A MESSAGE TO THE RUSSIANS AND THE WEST.. DID WE HEAR IT?

There is always, a message imbedded in statements by Arab leadership and

this is especially true of the Saudi Royal Family.

When King Abdullah makes the comment, "we cannot abandon our religion and

moral position towards the situation in Syria", he is almost assuredly

referencing the status of the Sunni population.

I am confident this is exactly how this statement will be interpreted in

Iran and Syria.

I also love  the oh so typical Arab way of saying to 'Russia,  get on the

right side of this',  with the comment about coordinating with the Arab

League.

A polite slap in the face Mr Putin will not appreciate!!!!

Just one more uptick in the pressure cooker called the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=258940

IRAN'S THREAT OF PREEMPTIVE ACTIONS.. WHY?

I find it interesting the top Turkish newspaper ,online , the World

Bulletin, did not run the story of Iran threatening to take preemptive

measures.

Turkish impartial media???

It also appears the media didn't catch on to the fact Iran never identified

who the preemptive strike might be against.

If you just read the article as you were sipping your morning coffee, you

would most likely assume the threat was geared towards Israel.

If you did so, I would remind you in the past Iran typically spells out

their willingness to fight Israel if needed.... by name usually!!!

In addition, to have a prominent General make this preemptive statement

surly implies it was sanctioned all the way to the top.... I.O campaign.

I still stand by my theory Iran cannot afford to strike the first blow and

expect to have any chance of Arab support in a conflict.

Arabs destroying their countries for the sake of Persians is just not

likely.... they won't even do it for the Palestinians!!!

Again, Iran must be seen as the hero, liberator in the next battle, but they

seem to be focusing on trying to set when that battle takes place; thus the

statement about not waiting.

Hezbollah and Hamas must feel like they are more and more just the pawns in

a Persian game.... Lebanon has to feel the same way.

Can Iran get Israel to strike out at Hezbollah or Hamas?

Can Iran insure this conflict takes place at the right moment in time?

Can Iran avoid the next cycle of the "Arab Spring" this time a Persian

version??

Every day is a challenge for all sides... .

It is only going to take one mistake to get out of hand.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17116588

http://www.worldbulletin.net/

HOW TO DE-GLORIFY A TERROR CELL?? WELL... MAYBE!!

This story is important and fascinating on several levels.

The skillcraft of being able to discredit a Terror organization is still fairly new in the US and has never been "professionalized" to the level it should be.

Fortunately, some of our Allies overseas have mastered this " sillcraft" and some even have a history of being very proficient  at destabilizing public support... Columbia and the FARC is a very good example.

Now, to give the US somewhat of an alibi, most nations that have become well versed in the art of de-glorifying movements have had the advantage of a controlled press / media environment. This is simply not the case in the US and thus handicaps the potential for being as effective as other Allies.

Thailand is one of the nations that has a long history of being able to change public opinion based on a well thought out Information Operation / I.O. campaign!!!

This event with the Iranian team is a classic example.

Exposing their interaction with prostitutes and alcohol is a very deliberate and most likely factual issue the Thi government fully intends to exploit.

The concept of publishing photos of such allegations is yet another example of, " a picture is worth a thousand words"!

The Thi officials know all too well the impact this I.O campaign can have on the crucial public supported needed for the Terror Groups overall, long term goals.

So, here comes the problem, at least from my perspective.

This " cell" had and has much more in common with typical Special Forces Operations at a military level than with any fundamentalist movement.

The concept of "discrediting" can be highly effective against standard fundamentalist movements, but that is not what this team was.

The Thi government has applied the wrong tool to the problem at hand.

This team was, like the others that are out there.. and that is the real story... is a tactical operation designed to have strategic impact on the Nation State of Israel.

The Iranian Hezbollah, Qod, fingerprints are all over the event and Israel knows it.

As important as this event was, the real message is not lost on Israel or the US.

Iran has stepped up the game and you can bank on the fact other teams are in place and ready to execute missions upon orders.

So, sorry Thi government.... the idea of Special Forces guys hanging out with Hookers and alcohol.....well..... that's almost a requirement to become an SF member!!!!

That's not to say the Qod Force Commander will not be happy with the news, but the mission is far more important that a few small teams.

PS.. the folks they are looking for fits perfectly into the model of a Hezbollah / Qod / cell.

Lets see what Israel does to prevent the next attack!!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/17/thai-police-2-more-suspects-in-terror-case/

KHADER ADNAN'S HUNGER STRIKE AND WHAT IT MEANS.

In a typical year for the Middle East, this event would probably  not rise to the level of international attention, but these are far from " normal" times in the Middle East.

Now, this is not the first time Israeli authorities have encountered hunger strike tactics, never the less, they understand how easily this particular event could get out of hand.

What is important to remember about this event is who is willing to allow it to escalate and who may feel the timing is all wrong for any event to overtake current events.

Islamic Jihad groups that are outside the control of the Muslim Brotherhood appear to see the status of Adnan as a potential flashpoint ripe for exploitation.

The Iranians assess the Islamic Jihad's focus on this issue as an opportunity for distraction from the Syrian crisis.

That doesn't mean Iran and Islamic Jihad in Palestine are sharing ideas, although , " the enemy of my enemy is my friend" , concept is never far from day to day reality in the Middle East.

So, to keep it simple.... Iran see this Adnan's hunger strike as a potential opportunity as does Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The Muslim Brotherhood has a master plan underway and this hunger strike issue threatens to get out of control and thus threatens to disrupt the MB's " Master Plan".

Israel must be careful and not over react, yet they cannot afford to have anything happen to Adnan; unless of course the Israelis have figured out a way to manipulate the event to their advantage.

So you see... a simple hunger strike... like thousands in the past.. is no longer a " simple" event!! 

Just one more issue that needs to be watched carefully.

When the entire area is doused in fuel and sparks are flying everywhere.. it's impossible to  believe there will be no fire!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/201221842847443790.html

THIS IS  A REPOST OF THE LAST STORY I POSTED.


When I posted this story the other day, I did not cut and paste the whole article. 
This is the complete post.

A few things about these recent attacks need to be addressed.

1.  It's not just the opinion of the US as to the likelihood of these
attacks being coordinated that is important.

I would argue that in a time of heightened paranoia on the part of
Iran and Israel, the real concern here should be what Israel believes.

Some will speculate Israel is looking for an excuse to take action
against Iran or Hezbollah and some would argue that Iran may wish this as
well.

Two nations looking for a fight can blunder into an event with
little logic.

2.  The classic, " A picture is worth a thousand words", applies to the
video released by the government of Thailand today.

Those two young Iranian men where not just local knuckle heads!!

The physical conditioning, the way they wore the extremely heavy
backpacks and the confidence in their walk does not resemble a mentally ill
individual, who would "Lone Wolf"  an attack.. oh ya... two guys
does not constitute a " Lone Wolf"!!


Is it possible Iran is attempting to push Israel into an altercation?

Let me answer that by making a statement.

Iran cannot save Syria by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Hamas by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Lebanon and Hezbollah by initiating an
attack on Israel.

Iran has no chance of gaining any support in the region or the world for
that matter, if it goes on the offensive; regardless of sanctions or their
impact on Iran!

For Iran to utilize Hezbollah operatives to attack Israeli key leaders;
remember who died four years ago, might be the only way they can insure an
Israeli response that would show Iran as the victim.

Hezbollah operations in Lebanon being pounded  by the IDF ,allows Iran to
react from the side of " savior" not as aggressor.

Is Syria and Hamas and Hezbollah worth this risk to Iran?

How could it not be?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2012/02/201221555522250455.html

SO WHAT IS IRAN UP TO

THE POST ARE HARD TO DO FROM 30 000 ft!!! On an iphone

A few things about these recent attacks need to be addressed.

1.  It's not just the opinion of the US as to the likelihood of these
attacks being coordinated that is important.

   I would argue that in a time of heightened paranoia on the part of
Iran and Israel, the real concern here should be what Israel believes.

   Some will speculate Israel is looking for an excuse to take action
against Iran or Hezbollah and some would argue that Iran may wish this as
well.

   Two nations looking for a fight can blunder into an event with
little logic.

2.  The classic, " A picture is worth a thousand words", applies to the
video released by the government of Thailand today.

   Those two young Iranian men where not just local knuckle heads!!

   The physical conditioning, the way they wore the extremely heavy
backpacks and the confidence in their walk does not resemble a mentally ill
individual, who    would "Lone Wolf"  an attack.. oh ya... two guys
does not constitute a " Lone Wolf"!!


Is it possible Iran is attempting to push Israel into an altercation?

Let me answer that by making a statement.

Iran cannot save Syria by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Hamas by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Lebanon and Hezbollah by initiating an
attack on Israel.

)

A SPLIT IN HAMAS??

For several months now, some have argued the possibility of a split in Hamas over the reconciliation with Fatah was a just a show, but all indications are now pointing to a real issue inside the Hamas camp.

 Side Note:   Once again, Qatar is right in the middle of the interaction as

it continues to increase its status in the Middle East.

Khaled Meshal and Haniyeh  would not let the public know they were meeting to discuss the disagreement in the Hamas camp if they didn't want to.

These men are specialist at not letting the public know where they are and what they are talking about.

For this meeting to be out in the open, is a good indicator just how much Hamas leadership is troubled by this split.

Meshal and Abbas have hitched their horse to the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt.

Mahmoud Al-Zahar and his faction of Hamas are still holding on to the Iranian supported operation.

One of the real issues here is purely a extension of Arab organized crime in nature.

Mahmoud Al- Zahar's group has a good thing going in Gaza and the money that is made on smuggling has allowed he and his supporters to live the good life!

If this "Reconciliation" deal goes through, the " new" leaders in Gaza will take away the honey hole!!!

Yep.. it's not always about religion or political ideology... most often it's based on good old fashion corruption and greed..

Two traits that are looked at as true skill crafts in the Middle East.

If the "buyout" for Al-Zahar is good, then Iran will lose its last foothold in Gaza.

Take a guess at what the Iranian counter offer might be?

What I find fascinating, is the Israeli reaction to the whole issue of "

Reconciliation".

A Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood movement.. after the demise of the hated and labeled Hamas / Fatah movements, is something Israel is really worried about.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85794

THE LIMITATIONS OF SYRIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS:

I promised a few friends I would talk to the issue of the Syrian military and it's  tactical / strategic limitations.

I will also attempt to address the possible second order effects of these limitations and how the Resistance might be able to take advantage of the issues.

Lets start by saying any military is only as good as it's will to follow it's leadership.

The most advanced and deadly force in the world is powerless to defend the nation it serves if the nations leadership is not worthy of following.

Regardless of why or how an internal conflict starts, when a professional force is utilized to attack and kill it's own people, that force is bound to be taken to the brink of destruction.

What has become obvious in Syria is the necessity for the Resistance to break the will of the Syrian Military; thus taking away it's ability to  attack and murder it's own people.

Defeating the Syrian Military cannot be the goal of the FSA or the Resistance political groups.

Defeating the support of the members who make up the Syrian Military is the key.

Many of the Resistance members have understood this from the very beginning and as such realized the psychological  impact of defections being shown to the world.

Getting the defecting members on a  media network  was and is vital to the movement.

Getting senior members of the military and the Syrian government to state in a logical and professional manner why they left and why Al Assad's government must end is a pillar of wining the conflict.

As much effort must be placed on this process as is being placed on procuring weapons, if not more!

In the end, if Al Assad and his family are the only owners of massive amounts of equipment that is no longer manned ....... if the humans that made up the formidable Syrian Military are all but gone.. then Al Assad and his followers will be finished.

Now; in the meantime the Resistance must continue to fight for their survival and they must be seen as professional at all cost.

Being successful against a superior force is achievable, but doing so while maintaining  a professional, " Just" appearance is vital to the movement.

Lets look at some of the tactical issues that must be leveraged in order to break the will of the Syrian military.

Classic Hit and Run tactics are already a basic theme of the SFA, but the process must continue to improve.

Ironically, the Syrian Military was not designed, equipped or trained to conduct Asymmetric, Urban, Guerilla Warfare.

The Syrian military was developed to combat a  "Force on Force" operation; such as Syria would encounter in a conflict with Israel.

Nation State warfare is not what the Syrian Military has been or is currently facing and that is a major reason why they are not only unable to maintain momentum, but are losing badly in the public information war; again.. make no doubt.. the public information campaign is vital to the downfall of Al Assad.

When the Syrian military overreacts, and shells cities with field artillery units.. when they use Tanks to fire into apartment buildings.. they are falling back on the only true training their forces know... common kinetic operations.

Their problem, and they know it as well as the Iranians do, is the Resistance fighters can simply melt away into the surroundings and live to fight another day.

When the Syrian military spends four days pounding a city with indirect fire and the only casualties shown on TV are Children and innocent civilians, they are losing the war!

It's a classic example of, " You may win the battle, but lose the war"!!!!

Fighting an enemy that simply chooses to leave the battlefield never ends well for the aggressor.

General warfare Vs Guerilla warfare.. it is a well documented concept that many senior military leaders  and political leaders fall back on time and time again.

Taking ground to only give it back may seem senseless, but in the art of wearing down an enemy, thus breaking their spirits....... it's a brilliant tactic.

Guerilla warfare needs a baseline concept to maintain it's operational success.

The members must never compromise their professional, " Just" appearance.

Put simply.... do not kill just for the sake of killing.... do not murder in the name of revenge ... do not take revenge on the innocent.

Set standards for conduct and let the world know what standards you live by.

Last but not least... show compassion when known is expected, and let that compassion

( YOUTUBE) be seen by all. LIVE BY IT!!

Let me end by talking about a few tactical issues I'm not sure the Resistance movement is utilizing.

1.. Keep you enemies from getting sound sleep for more than just a few hours.

            A. Harassment is key to psychological fatigue. Simple.. .fast .. loud harassment.  

            B.  No Peace!!!  No days off

            C.  If your enemy is rotating units to give them time to refresh both mentally and equipment wise, find       those units and attack them.. Attack them where they rest..

2.  Train special units that can travel from city to city who are good at fighting at night.

            ( The Syrian Military is totally inept at night fighting.)

            A.  Equip them to fight at night.. train them or get them trained to fight at night.

            B.   Attack key sites at night.. late at night.. pre dawn... Fast.. in and out..

            C.   Use indirect fire such as rockets or mortars or heavy machineguns

            D.  Again.. be fast .. and be GONE! know where to hide and stay there until you move again.. and        know where the unit is going next.. prep the location.. not the movement.

            E.  Do not let these units " gloat".. No YOUTUBE.. NO  BLOGGS..

            F.  Let the reputation of these units build based upon the nightmares of it's enemies.

            G.  Let the word leak out these units exist in far greater numbers than actually exist.

FEAR... HOPELESSNESS.. These weapons are far more powerful than anything another country can sell or provide the Resistance in Syria.

I will come back to this topic of fighting, but there is much to talk about soon and some of it doesn't involve Syria.

ANOTHER PIECE TO THE PUZZLE!

Yesterday I commented we needed to see what additional speeches came our of Iran before we had the chance to possibly figure out what was taking place.

Well, the attached story may not be the whole answer, but it does provide another clue as to what direction Iran is worried about or heading towards.

Yesterday, Haniyeh  was seen in public with Ahmadinejad and the picture of a unified front was the objective.

On Sunday, Khamenei gave Haniyeh the real warning.

Don't follow the path or take the orders of the Muslim Brotherhood!

Tall orders considering the origin of Hamas is completely imbedded with the Sunni MB.

Make no mistake and don't listen to anyone who says otherwise; Khamenei's message is clear.

It's the Iranian version of, " You are ether with us or against us"!

For months the MB has strived to pull Hamas away from Iran and part of that process is for Hamas to make peace with Fatah.

Hamas and Fatah meeting in Cairo for "reconciliation" talks was a message to Iran.

Khamenei knows the time is near that Iran must ether count on Hamas support or accept the fact they have slipped back into the Sunni / MB camp.

Nothing sparks more anger in the Middle East than being duped and Iran rebuilding Hamas' military and terrorist teams only to see Hamas break away is the just about the worst case of being duped!!!!

So, this Hamas part of the puzzle becomes, perhaps, a little more clear!

Now the deciphering of the Hezbollah statement about not marching to the drums of Iran becomes even more important.

It is clear the friends list of Al Assad is shrinking and even the Russians are starting to realize the price they may pay in the Arab world for backing the Shia Al Assad killing machine.

As I have said before, if Hezbollah see the survival of their movement being dragged down by it's support to Al Assad, then the allegiance may come to a sudden end.

In the past two days the clashes between Sunni and Shia inside Lebanon has increased.

Although this is nothing new, it comes at a very bad time for Hezbollah.

Is it a sign of the Lebanese resistance to Hezbollah?

Is Hezbollah's future truly with the Persians or is the Hamas / Fatah model something they may need to look into?

Iran's problems continue to grow.

AHMADINEJAD BIG ANOUNCEMENT ???

Ok, a couple of interesting issues with this speech of a pending, " big announcement" in the next few days and to interesting side notes about Hezbollah and Hamas.

First off, on the surface it seems logical Ahmadinejad would make such a bold statement on the anniversary of the ouster  of the Shah; notice I didn't say,  anniversary of the Islamic revolution because that is not what it was.

Some may wonder why Ahmadinejad would be given the opportunity to reinforce his position given he has been summed to account for his actions by the Iranian parliament.

If Khamenei wants Ahmadinejad minimize, then why allow him to take credit for such a pending " Big Anouncement"?

Perhaps Khamenei didn't sanction Ahmadinejad making such a bold statement?

My opinion is Khamenei did sanction the stunt and here is why I believe this to be true.

A picture is worth a thousand words and look who is in the picture with Ahmadinejad... Haniyeh!!!

Why would Khamenei permit Ahmadinejad the clout of being seen as the rep to Hamas if Ahmadinejad was on the outs with Khamenei?

Why give him the prestige when his prestige and power is what Khamenei is reportably  worried about?

Next, lets look at the statement made by Nasrallah, Hezbollah's mouthpiece!

A comment about not doing just what Iran tells them to do if Israel attacks Iran is interesting.

He basically states Hezbollah will  do what is right for Hezbollah and Lebanon; they still act as if they own Lebanon,

Now, in the never ending world of " words inside of words" for the Arab world, this is an interesting message at the same time Hamas is visiting Iran.

Where the two comments by Hamas and Hezbollah coordinated?

You would be a fool to not think so.

So, as you can see, the conversations and rhetoric continues to grow in intensity and pace.

What is Iran about to announce and why would a leader who is reported to be on the " outs" with the Ayatollah Khamenei be allowed to have the glory of a nuclear announcement?

Why would Hezbollah and Hamas give what appears, on the surface, to be somewhat confusing messages?

Yes.. the Middle East continues to be a very complex situation and it seems the complexity is getting worse.

Lets see what the announcement is and see if that gives us a clue as to what the next move may be.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=256899

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85652

TURKEY LOOKING OUT FOR TURKEY.

This "Three Stage Strategy" Davutoglu talks of  is a little confusing.

I find it interesting how he paints a picture of Turkey leading the way for the Arab League's approach to the UN.

I'm not convinced the Arab League really did anything close to consulting with Turkey before heading to the UN, but it does make Turkey look important; perceptions... considering he was addressing a college student body.

His announcement of new consultations with the AL and then a follow on with the US Secretary of State, again paints the picture of Turkey taking a leading role in the Syrian crisis and in fact they probably are and should be.

My problem is, it seems the Turks are more interested in showing the world they are a regional leader, much like the AL tried desperately tried to do, than they are concerned about the people in Syria.

Davutoglu's real information theme of " Turkey is the new leader", is enforced by the somewhat confusing transition to the topic of  old Cold War structures for the region.

Besides a possible swipe at Russia and China, but mostly Russia, for the veto vote, he again sets out to show how the future for the region is an issue for Turkey to impact and not the Cold War powerhouses.  Classic ..  " Be careful what you ask for"!

It's also interesting that he attempts to make the point the issues of the region are not sectarian; " new dynamic powers of the society".

I'm not sure what the "new dynamic powers of the society means?  ( Words inside the words again.. Talking more like an Arab than a Ottoman..  )

One thing is certain, the events of Syria are proving to be a monumental test of Turkey's new "we can lead" mentality for the region.

Syria's crisis proved far more than the AL could handle, thus forcing the Arabs back into the world they know best... backdoor deals and denying overt involvement.

The AL learned you cannot inter the Major Leagues by trying to show up at the World Series.

As Turkey continues to struggle with the Syrian event, it will become more and more obvious to Turkish leaders that when you strive to be a leader, words are often simply not enough. 

Sacrifice is a cornerstone of leadership!

What is Turkey willing to sacrifice?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85611

SANCTIONS  AND THE  TURK'S  VIEWPOINT

Turkey's message to the UN is worthy of real review by the West.

Far too often the concept of sanctions and embargos become the quick and easy response by leaders who have no stomach for conflict.

What makes this concept even more complex is the reality that sanctions often have the opposite impact they were intended to produce.

The Turk's point that sanctions will only hurt the ones that they are intended to help is a valid statement.

The Turks are also correct in their estimate of the Syrian Middle Class fearing what comes after Al Assad.

So, if Turkey is correct and sanctions are not the right option for Syria, then what is?

Sitting back and waiting for the next worthless Arab League meeting, even if it does have UN participation, will not stop the rockets from raining in on the resistance.

Blaming Russia and China for vetoing the UN resolution, one that would have had no real impact on Al Assad, will not stop the violence.

By the way; Putin's interest in the events in Syria have nothing to do with the welfare of the Syrian people.

Syria is just another opportunity for Putin to show the West, the US, that Russia must be consulted on worldly issues.

Rumors of Turkey establishing a " safe zone" in Syria are still nothing more than rumors!

The Arab League calling for a " Peace Keeping" force going into Syria is code for " let someone else go into Syria and we will pay for it".

Personally I would love to see any one of the GCC states attempt to deploy a " Peace Keeping Force" outside of the GCC... That would be a first!!!

If Turkey has a point about sanctions, and I believe they do to some extent, then what is it that Turkey proposes be done?

If the Ottomans want to be leaders in the region, then now is the time to lead.

Talking is not leading...

The GCC found out how hard it is to become a leader.

What will Turkey do?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85595