ASSAD AND IRAN SENDING A MESSAGE TO HAMAS?

In the never ending conversation about distractions and counter distractions, did Assad just send a message to Hamas at the same time Iran pushed yet another distraction event?

This DEBKA story talks around the edges of a reoccurring topic; the issue of Hamas leadership leaving Syria.

Everyone is fairly confident Hamas is not supporting the missile events of the past few days. 

 The problem is, Hamas has little to no control over the actions of  Jihad Islami and the Israelis know it.

If needed the Israeli government can place the blame for such events on the Palestinian leadership, but this time around to do so would only play into the hands of Iran and Assad.

So the events of the past few days have two true goals.

One; Assad's message to Hamas on how hard he can make like for them.

Again, the good news is, Israel didn't fall for it.

The second goal was Iran's way of showing everyone their ability to control events in the Middle east.

In that respect, goal number two was successful.

As a sidebar to this Iranian lead event, the issue of Egypt and Iran can be addressed.

Who can give orders to groups like Jihad Islami is a point of contention between Iran and Egypt.

So, it many ways the events of the past few days only epitomize the day to day complexities of the Middle East.

Tension finds a different way to build from day to day..

So many seem to be looking for a ways to damage each other and in doing so make it dangerously easy to stumble into a major event.

 THE FUTURE KING.. NOT WHAT IRAN WANTED TO SEE.

A quick note about the announced heir to the Throne  in Saudi.

Prince Nayef bing Abdul-Aziz, as I stated earlier in the week, is an interesting choice.

He is a real traditionalist, conservative who looks upon reform reluctantly.

He has a strong, working knowledge of how the business world works and is very in tune with world government.

He especially has a " understanding" of the issues with Iran.

If he becomes King, Iran will have to deal with a strong Saudi Nationalist / Sunni who will not look towards Iran with a sparkle in his eye!

The bad news for the Saudi youth will be his vision of "reform".. He doesn't really have one!

The Arab Spring will not find his endorsement anytime soon. 

All in all, an interesting choice that spells future trouble for Iran and perhaps the Saudi youth..

A fact the Iranians will not overlook!! 

A SURVEY THAT TELLS FAR MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK.

Again tonight, I am going to continue to look at the issue of Syria and Iran as it continues to be the most important and volatile issue in the Middle East.

 Although the DoS conducts a series of detailed surveys on Middle Eastern
societal trends, this one presents a timely look into one of the most
volatile issues taking place in that part of the world..... Syria!!!

The opportunity for Iran to save Assad is quickly coming to a close and
Iran's leadership knows that.

The fact the two Iranian leaders are in a state of conflict only insures that
decisions on how to react to Syrian evens will remain uncoordinated and
poorly thought out.

If the time has come for Iran to abandon Assad, rather than create an
external threat to the region to divert the attention from Syria, then true
panic could be about to take control in Iran.

Did the situation with Assad create the Assassination plot?

Was it an attempt to divert the world's attention from Syria?

It doesn't seem logical this would work, but Iran is becoming more illogical
with each passing day.

Rumors of Iran looking for some new "working" relationship with an Assad
replacement has been flying around the Middle East for over two months.

Iran has and probably continues to talk to Turkey about the future of Syria;
Assad name is becoming less of the center piece of any negotiations.

Iran must look for some common ground with Turkey if it is to stand a chance
of controlling the future leadership of Syria.

Frankly, I think the time of Iran calling the shots in Syria are all but
over.

What Iran has to settle for now is agreeing with Turkey on what the next
Syrian government should look like.

The problem will be the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, once again, will be the
issue for Iran.

The Sunni and Shia  dynamic  sets the tone.

What should terrorize Iran more than anything is not just the pending loss of
Syria, but the fact the Arab Spring will spread from Syria to Iran itself!

Just look at the survey results and it is easy to see the future of Iran's
current leadership.

I have said this for months, but Ahmadinejad only chance is to let the Arab
Spring come to Iran and align himself with the Persian Nationalist Youth
Movement.

He will have to make a desperate attempt to abandon the Khamenei leadership.

He will have to show a future for "Persians" that speaks to the dreams of
young, educated Iranians not the Mullah's and the repressive past!

He will have to do this knowing he will not only alienate the Shia, but the
Sunni Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as well.

I don't think he can do it.... but someone in Iran might!

Who becomes that someone and can this course of action take place before
Khamenei decides to crush the movement or distract the region with a proxy
war?

If Khamenei waits too long, the Civil / Sectarian / War in Syria will be
underway; it actually already is!

This is why Syria is important.

This is why the events in Syria far outweigh the issues in Egypt... Libya.... ect .... even the Palestinian Statehood issue; for the moment!

Here is my bet....

Khamenei makes a move on Ahmadinejad and then quickly creates a crisis for
Saudi and the GCC...

He can't go to war with Israel.. that would destroy Iran and all of it's dreams both of a Persian Empire and or, depending on what leader's eyes your are looking through, an Iranian Caliph!

Khamenei can chose a proxy war with the GCC , namely Saudi, but even that runs the risk of spreading and escalation into Iran's destruction.

  The bottom line is this; the Middle Eastern fuse is almost to the bomb and this survey proves it.

http://aai.3cdn.net/e0279d08c84eee1ebf_iqm6b1t2w.pdf

GORILLA TACTICS IN A PENDING CIVIL/ SECTARIAN WAR!

Take good look at this picture from Syria.

This is not what the entrance to  a city that is dealing with, " small bands of armed thugs" should look like.

This is the look of a city that reflects a pending sectarian conflict.

For weeks now the stories of checkpoints based on clans and or religious beliefs have grown in numbers and details.

This picture, as most pictures do, tells a thousand words.

Sandbags are not the tools of "insurgents"!

Sandbags are a sign of a Syrian Military checkpoint.

A military checkpoint that knows it can see more than just a random drive by shooting from a " thug" in a vehicle.

The mounded dirt is a vehicle denial barrier.

These are not the actions of a " Policing effort to counter a few " thugs".

What this does indicate is the Syrian Military is trying to hold " Hostile" territory.

That means they do not control the area they are in.

They may occupy parts of it, but they are under siege and the bunker is their fighting position.

If what Syria was dealing with was nothing more than " thugs" roaming the streets of otherwise peaceful cities, there would be no dug in fighting position.

Defectors from the Syrian Military grow in numbers with each passing day and each time they do so, the add to the collective intelligence the Opposition needs to make decisions .

 Just imagine if a young Sgt or Officer defects.

The information they have of troop strength, unit capabilities and unit locations are all compromised.

If these defecting members are brining unit equipment with them, not just weapons, but radios, then the issue is even more dire for the Syrian Military.

Bottom line:

This is a very telling picture and it's unlike most I've seen coming out of  Syria.

The Arab League is meeting in the next twenty-four hours on the Syrian topic and they know all too well time is running out.

PS. I wonder how many Turkish " Military Advisors" are inside Syria?

If you think not.... .think again..

If you find one, he will have a Saudi Debit Card in his wallet. 

WILL ASSAD PAY THE PRICE FOR IRAN'S ACTIONS?

Last night and in fact several times in the past two months I have mentioned the theory of Assad becoming the Saudi target in order to strike back at Iran.

Lets take a minute and review this topic given I truly believe this " theory" is quickly becoming reality.

What facts add up to from the Saudi viewpoint?

The Arab Spring:

  It's been a frightening issue from the very beginning with Saudi convinced Iran has tried and will continue to try to " weaoponize" the concept against the Gulf States.

All Saudi has to do is look to Bahrain and Yemen and  suddenly Iranian " plots" show up in every conversation.  ( Not far from the truth)

 The Assad Factor:

Saudi knows all too well how desperate Iran is over the Syrian issue.

Paranoia and desperation are dangers ingredients in the hands of a unstable government such as Iran.  This one keeps the Saudi leadership up at night!!! It's the "fuel" behind the Iranian plot against the Gulf States.

As I have said time and time again.... Iranian / Persian / dreams are all but dead with the loss of a buffer partner in Syria. 

Saudi leadership realizes the domino event in Lebanon if Assad falls.

The Palestinian Statehood issue:

Trying to keep this issue from blowing up at a time when Saudi and it's Gulf State partners don't need any additional events is a top priority for Saudi.

Knowing that, Iran fingerprints are virtually all over the issue and Saudi has to work daily to counter Iranian involvement on yet another issue that could end up in Saudi's backyard.

Turkey:

Anyone who thinks there is a pending love story between Iran and Turkey / Persia / Ottoman Empires in the making / is simply not a student of history.

Saudi's interaction with Turkey is a delicate balance between future Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood goals and Iranian reaction to the Brotherhood.

How does Saudi insure  a " Two Front" counter to Iranian desires in the Middle East..... Turkey!!!!  But.... Nothing in this world is free and the Ottomans' have their own visions for the region. A careful future game for the Saudi government.

So, in the game of Middle Eastern power struggles..... who has the advantage?

The issue is clearly becoming one  of  Persian ... Arab... Ottoman concepts with all three attempting to highjack  the Muslim Faith! Sound familiar ??? What's the old saying about History????

Ok, here is what I think the real advantage is..... MONEY!!!

If we look at the rhythm of the world right now, the undeniable fact is this..

A large part of the world is feeling left out...

The " Social Injustices" or "Economic Imbalances" make up a large part of the world perception right now.

Social Media and Social Networking is having an impact on daily world events far beyond what any Think Tank can possibly comprehend right now.

So, who has the advantage in the Middle East?

Saudi!!

Remember the " real" advantage .... MONEY...

Can Saudi buy it's problems to the point they don't happen?

I've been there when they have successfully made this happen even when I thought it was an outrageous concept.

Social unrest is the key weapon for Iran right now and Saudi can buy their way out of trouble.

Pushing the Peninsula Shield Forces, a concept I know well,  into Bahrain was not to send a message to the Shii of Saudi or Bahrain, but a warning to Iran itself.

Iran will not get the results it is looking for in Saudi by convincing a few Shii to take to the streets in the  Eastern part of the country... even with the help of Iranian instigators.

As soon as Iran realizes this is a flawed plan, the next step will have to be taken....

Violence and it will have to be somewhere rather than in the Eastern Part of Saudi..... hence the issue with Yemen...

Ok... it comes down to this... It's a race... 

Who strikes first?

The Saudi push on Assad or the Iranian plot in Yemen and Bahrain?

My bet is Assad is going to lose!

In typical Saudi style... the fingerprints will not belong to a Saudi.... but the money will!!!

"The Enemy of my Enemy".. It rules the Middle East....

Keep an eye on Turkey...

Keep an eye on Hamas ...

Assad sees Assassins all around him... if not physically.. politically ... and their paycheck is cashed in Riyadh!!!

BATTLE LINES DRAWN FOR SAUDI AND IRAN.

With the official announcement of US forces withdrawing from Iraq, Saudi may have the "proxy" battlefield it needs to confront Iran.

Now, most of us realize the border of Iraq and Kuwait will continue to be what it has been since 1990; an ammo dump and jump off point for US forces if needed.

It's is also well known the US and Allied forces have kept the confrontation between Sunni and Shia in Iraq under control for several years now, even as Saudi tried to keep the fire burning.

Saudi has had ample time to build it's plan for confrontation in Iraq and I am sure this plan, whatever it may be, will  go into operational mode by the end of the year.

For all the talk of how Iran will  " call the shots" in Iraq, Saudi will not sit back and let Iran have it's way.

Saudi will not allow Iran to open a Two Front Campaign on Saudi, Yemen and Iraq.

If Saudi's resolve was somewhat passive, that all but died when  the US exposed the alleged plot to assassinate  Saudi's Ambassador.

And finally, the  possible new future leadership of Saudi, Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz will see Iran as far more of a threat than even the current leadership.

None of this is taking place in a vacuum, or you would hope it's not!

What will be difficult for the US and the West is not letting this future proxy conflict get too far out of control or lead to actual regional war.

When you stack this Saudi, Iranian growing tension on top of the issues of social unrest and weekend state governments, it's easy to see just how volatile the whole region remains.

As for the Iranian leadership, if they, and I don't think the two of them are doing a great deal of joint strategizing right now, believe for a minute the Iranian plans for Iraq are going to execute as planned,  then they are sucking on the Shisha pipe too hard!

I will go back to my comments last week about Saudi and Syria.

Assad knows all too well how the alleged plot on the Saudi Ambassador will impact his survival.

He and Syria are " Target Number One" for Saudi.

Iran's worries are only going to get worse.

IS ERDOGAN POINTING THE FINGER AT ASSAD?

After the events of this week, it's easy to see how Turkey's ego was damaged by the PKK attacks.

When a country is in  the process of convincing the world they are a rising regional powerbroker, it's  a painful event take a brazen attack such as this.

In that part of the world, the message is often inside the "message"; so much so many look for the implied statement more than they pay attention what is actually said.

In that regard, one has to wonder what the message Erdogan was delivering yesterday or more importantly, who was he addressing it to?

The attached news story may be on to something when it mentions the possible link between Syria and the PKK.

The question becomes, would Assad be so bold as to support a PKK attack on Turkey?

Why not?

What does Assad have to lose?

If the answer is yes, then the next question is why?

Is Assad letting Turkey and Erdogan know Syria can create just as many difficulties for Turkey as Turkey can create for Syria?

Don't forget all the stories from this week about arms flow from Lebanon and Turkey into Syria.

Add on top of that, Turkey hosting and supporting the new somewhat recognized government in exile " SNC".

Finally, what better way to distract the Kurds who may be about to support the revolt in Syria than to have them crushed by their real enemy.. the Turks!

It's hard to tell what exactly is going on, but one thing is for certain, Turkey and Erdogan are desperate to show how they can handle this event and do so professionally and quickly.

Winter operations in that part of the world are less than ideal and the PKK knows this all too well.

Turkey may have to hold off until Spring to conduct a protracted operation and a lot will have changed in that region of the world by then.

Assad pulls a powerful threat away from the events in Syria by setting Turkey up to crush the PKK.

So, back to the question of what's in it for Assad to have supported this attack?

I think we have answered that question.

The question,  and it's the harder one, is how could he have pulled this off?

It's not like the PKK is on a first name bases with the Syrian Military.

Oh ya... I forgot the " Golden Rule" of that part of the world....

" The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend". with my own added subset... " Until I need to betray my Friend"!!!

Side note:

I see the Iranian FM is making a trip to Turkey on Friday the 21st of October!

I wonder if they are trying to mend fences before Turkey shows Iran / the Persians / how the new Ottoman Empire deals with it's enemies?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=80508

WHY 1,000 FOR 1????

A recurring question wrapped with tons of speculation continued today.

Why would Israel trade 1000 prisoners for one young Soldier captured over five years ago?

Here is an answer I am skeptical of, but if true would make real sound logic.

If Israel knew they were about to be involved in a major conflict and they knew this you man was alive, they may do whatever they needed to get him out of the future battlefield.

His death would be all but assured in a regional war.

Couple this with the fact he had become a national symbol of Israeli dedication to it's youth and citizens!

Then add the concept of turning lose 1000 enemies that will not have the opportunity to inflict harm on Israel again before the new conflict starts  and we may have a very dire answer to a very perplexing question.

I am not sure I go along with this theory, but it does have some tactical value.

My theory of Israel trying it's best to show it is willing to work with the Palestinian people is the one I will stick with for now, but the conflict theory does worry me.

CREDIT, CONTROL AND EXPLOITATION.... OCCUPY GETS "COMPLICATED!

The last time I referenced this " Occupy" issue, it was, in the eyes of the media, still just a good excuse to have a campout and sing old songs!

The media caught on quickly they were underestimating what was going on and agencies like CNN changed their attitude on how to cover the story.

It's now interesting to see the groups that are trying to find a way to turn the event into an advantage.

The US Democratic party is trying it's best to fold " Occupy" into a 2012 Campaign weapon, but I'm not sure all the groups involved are going to go along with the idea.

The US Republican party seems to still be gathering information to frame their response as a collective, although a few members have jumped on the media bandwagon and labeled the movement as anti Capitalism College Kids looking for a good time.  

The US Democratic party is going to need to be very careful with attaching their name to the movement.

If groups like the World Anarchist meld into the " Occupy" event, and they are trying with each passing day, then US politicians could see their affiliation with the movement virtually blow up in their faces.  

In the realm of "Exploitation" Iran seems to have been the first to strike.

Iran's Information Operations machine was quick to utilize the " Occupy" event as a weapon to word off the Ambassador Plot.

The statements about the US simply trying to distract the  world from the problems the

" Occupy" movement posses for the US was a brilliant counter by Iran.

It may not have sold to many people in the US, but it was meant for the population of the Middle East and the youth of Europe and in that regard it worked masterfully.

I find it interesting that some of the movement purest are reluctant to attach a overall "cause" to the event.

Internal power struggles with those that are passively attempting to Hijack the movement are  becoming more and more common.

This should sound a little like familiar   if you live in Egypt.... Remember.. some said the Occupy event was nothing more than an extension of the Arab Spring.

I was talking to some folks Saturday night and an interesting opinion came up.

In the early 1930's the root of all evil in Germany were the Jewish Bankers and Company owners.

Everything that was wrong with Germany... everything they had lost... jobs... houses.. savings.. ect...ect... was the direct result of the Jewish people of Germany.. or at least that was the story the German people were told by what would become the   new government of Germany.

It is more than a little frightening to see a particular section of society be labeled for all the world's ills.

It's easy for a young Arab Muslim to associate " Banks" with the Jewish People.

Is this insinuating the " Occupy" movement could become an movement of hate?

Well, is it possible a movement can be hijacked?

Ask the Students and the Socialist who brought down the Shaw of Iran!

If you don't know the history of what happened in Iran, then you need to read.

Some things are far too coincidental for paranoid members of the world population.

The 1930s are not that far removed...  Some are still alive and remember how it all started.

Remember the old saying about " history".  

Is it ok to demonize the Banks and Big Business??

Who knows!!

Where could it all lead???

A frightening question.

SNAPSHOT ..  WEEK OF 16 OCT 2011

I would like to talk about the typical list of nations and events, but two issues are really worthy of giving a discussion all of their own.

SYRIA:

For several months now the talk of a potential Civil War as been on the minds of leaders.

It appears this talk is quickly becoming more and more a reality.

The stories of revolts and defections in the Syrian military and towns closing off neighborhoods based on ethnic and religious backgrounds continue to grow.

The ability of media organizations to find creditable individuals to interview and the recognition of the SNC has tipped the scales of believers and non believers when it comes to the worry of Civil War in Syria.

The seemingly desperate actions of the UN to request immediate consultation on events in Syria do nothing but inflame the perception Syria is sliding closer and closer to the edge of the abyss.

The paranoia level of people who only a few weeks ago stated the situation in Syria was manageable, is doing nothing but instilling panic in the Iranian government.

 Iran knows the Turks are pushing the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood issue harder and harder with each passing day and the support of Saudi is a forgone conclusion after the Ambassador plot event.

As a matter of fact, as I said just a few days ago, the Saudis will do their level best to bring " pain" to the Iranian government and that pain will come from the full support for Assad's downfall in Syria.

That in itself is amazing considering Saudi was quietly wishing Assad's government would survive just a few months ago.

All of this ties into the second issue I want to review today..... Iran and the unfolding threat of confrontation with Iran.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=241940

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=80320

IRAN:

The article by DEBKA is full of the typical drama that makes DEBKA sell subscriptions, but it does make a statement I have not seen them make and it's one I have been talking about for months.

The idea that Iran is so desperate to save Assad and Syria that they would actually risk a " limited" war is getting a great deal more traction in the open press.

The second link talks to the issue of Saudi and their warning of Iranian supported violence going into next months Hajj.

The threat of violence is mentioned in the DEBKA link and the fact that Saudi would make such a public statement ads some validity to the threat.

How crazy would it be for Iran to support violence in Mecca durring the Hajj?

Two answers:

As crazy as plotting to assassinate the Saudi in the US.

As crazy as attacking Mecca with a Terrorist force for the second time; yes it has happened before... hundreds killed inside the most sacred of Muslim compounds.

The final link speaks to an issue that continues to worry me more and more.

For someone like Feinstein to talk about the possibility of Iran actually wanting a confrontation with the US is extremely alarming to me!

Feinstein is not your typical " Hawk" of US politics especially when it come to Iran.

As I said the other day, the US administration's response to the Ambassador's plot has many in the world wondering what is really going on.

The level of paranoia in the Middle East is at an all time high.

My friends who are there tell me they have never "felt" anything like what is going on now.

The tension in the air grows worse with each passing day.

Calling the Middle East a " Powder Keg" is, in their words, an understatement!

As the issues in the Middle East grow more and more complex, they continue to speed up thus not allowing rational, calm world leaders time to keep things from getting out of hand.

Most world leaders and the people they trust to listen to are in " reactive" mode and when the do speak, it makes more and more people paranoid.

I am fascinated with the impact of Social Media and Social Networking is having on day to day governance in the world.

The danger is, it seems world governments simply don't know how to deal with the speed at which  the world is moving.

On Monday, I will move back to talking about the Occupy movement and how it may impact the above topics or how the issues above may impact the Occupy movement.

Interesting stuff.

 http://www.debka.com/article/21387/

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.b3c719706b66f81b6c630a0845ddd319.1b1&show_article=1

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.d47c1989dfe7f8200937897242970663.441&show_article=1   

PRISONER SWAPS AND DANGEROUS CONVERSATIONS

Two quick topics tonight that both have interesting undertones.

The Prisoner swap;

 " if you can call it that... 1000 for 1??, has a hidden message to it that DEBKA clearly picked up on.

http://www.debka.com/article/21380/

Over the past few months I have talked about how Hamas was beginning to see " other options" other than staying with the sinking ship named Assad.

The " Mother ship", Muslim Brotherhood, was been on a steady course to pull Hamas back into the " Master Plan".

Like any good Mafia handshake, there was going to be a price paid for the new power brokers in the Middle East reaching back out to Hamas.

Hamas also see value in this " swap'.

It's a good time for Hamas to show the Palestinian people Abbas is not the only one who can make " great deals" for the Palestinians.

Here comes the catch, at least as far as Hamas is concerned, the MB will control how this deal unfolds and what parts will change, not Hamas.

As soon as the Palestinian people understand this, and that is probably already happening, then Hamas could end up looking like a MB Puppet.  If the shoe fits......

So what's in it for the MB, the swap that is?

First off, it sets the playing field as far as letting Israel and the US and the EU know who is calling the shots for Hamas.

Hamas may not even recognize this yet, but the rest of the world will and quickly.

Hamas Syrian main office moving back to Egypt is a forgone conclusion.

It's what the MB wants and Hamas will listen to their new Master.

Remember, the pace of the Palestinian statehood issue will be set by the MB, not Abbas or Hamas.

Abbas set the ball in motion at the UN ,but only after traveling to Egypt to get the God Father's blessing.

Next question:

What does Israel get out of this deal?

Yes, the emotional issue of a young man who has becomes a centerpiece of Israeli party politics is finally solved.

More importantly, Israel, at a moment in time when they desperately need it, gets credit for trying to work with the Palestinian radical Hamas.

Yes, for Israel right now, public perception, especially outside of Israel, is critical.

So, 1000 for 1 is a message in itself.

" We are trying ... . just look how far we went on this issue"?

The dangers of tough talk to paranoid governments;

The news media was buzzing with stories of the US administration " talking" to Iranian leadership about the " plot".

The logical question becomes, what was the message and what was the response?

Did the US administration call Iran and say, " look... don't get too paranoid.. we are upset but no hostile actions are going to initiate on our part"?

As spooked as the Iranian government is right now over their nuclear program and the events of the Arab Spring, this might not be a bad message, but I seriously doubt  that took place.

If this would have been the message, the US administration would never admit it.

So, what else could have been said?

" You need to understand just how serious this situation is and the dangers it presents to your nation".

Sounds too much like Ronald Reagan and Lord knows Ronald Reagan is not in the White House.

Regardless of what the alleged conversation centered on, the danger is once again based on the all important reality of " Perception".

What is said in DC must be weighed very... very... carefully as to how it will be "Perceived" by Iranian leadership.

The US administration must remember the concept of public media in the Middle East, especially in Iran.

Making a open press announcement that the US leadership has " spoken" to Iranian leadership, can be easily misinterpreted.

Does Iranian leadership perceive this comment implies the US " Threatened" Iran?

Perhaps!

Does the Iranian leadership perceive the US administration is fabricating this into a campaign issue?

I would put money on this one.

I go back to my point about DC being very careful in analyzing how their statements in the West will play in the Middle East.

As an example; Al Jazeera is not known for being a supporter of Iranian leadership, yet their coverage today of how questionable this " plot" allegation really is can not be overlooked.

Even CNN ran a front page story on the "doubts" some  so called " Experts" have on the charges against Iran.

I can't tell you how much that CNN story and those like it will feed the " conspiracy" fire in the Middle East.

Iran could easily turn this story into yet another allegation of US " Lies" concocted to punish the Iranian people.

I will end this by stating a simple fact.

US agencies such as the FBI and the Department of Justice are the best in the world at winning in the US Court of Law!!!

The problem is the US Court of Law is not the gold standard of Middle Eastern public opinion.

Yep, the US may be correct in it's allegation towards Iran and yet lose the " Perception War" with  a large part of the world.

It's a concept the US simply doesn't understand to this day.

FOLLOW UP TO THE IRANIAN  ASSASSINATION PLOT

Yesterday, the million dollar question all the talking heads were scrambling to answer in order to get paid or promote their next book was, " Why"?

Why would Iran contemplate such an act?

With another full day of inputs from just about everyone who knows where Iran is on a map, I only read one logical train of thought, other than mine that is!

Iran wanted to create a crisis for the US and it's neighbor, Mexico.

What made this line of thought more plausible was the very well scripted response of the US government in conjunction with the Mexican government?  

If, like I theorized, the US government figured out this plot was, at least in part, designed to create a public outcry in the US over the Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations / DTOs, then it was a good move by the US to quickly show the  Mexican government's  involvement in solving the case.

Iran's concept of creating an international incident that included our Southern neighbor would easily fall into the "distraction" category.

I am not convinced this was the primary goal behind this plan, but it could easily be a second order effect that may have paid huge dividends to Iran.

Now, I am sure Saudi and Israel could care less about the relationship between the US and Mexico and both of them have little public understanding of the emotions in the US when it comes to the Southern border.

Utilizing a DTO may have lead  this volatile conversation and even lead to a anti Illegal rise up in the US, but it would not impact how Saudi and Israel would react.

So, as of tonight, the absolute facts on this plot are still up in the air!

Here is what I do know and you can take this one to the bank!!!

Saudi will do everything in their power to create the downfall of Assad.

They have gone from quietly supporting his government to taking the lead in his demise.

Whatever the SNC needs ... guns... money.. .information... .Saudi is going to supply it!!!

Revenge on Iran will come in the form of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood or a sectarian civil war and possibly the downfall of the Hezbollah backed government in Lebanon.

Yep... If you don't know Saudi, you can bank on them taking this to a whole new level all the time talking about how everyone in the region must learn to communicate and understand a peaceful path to the future.  Ya .. Right..

Saudi will be out for blood and Assad is going to be the target!

You just sit back and watch.. 

ARCHDUKE  FERDINAND ON US SOIL???? 

  A few weeks ago I talked about how events like the assassination  of Archduke Ferdinand are  simply catalyst for events that are going to happen.

The huge story that broke today begs us to consider why Iran wanted this event to take place, and to take place in the US?

Before we go down that hypothetical road, lets me go over a few sidebar points that will be overlooked in the sensational size of this event.

For years the theory has been Terrorist organizations would never make any headway with the Drug Dealers of South  and Central America.

The theory has always been the Drug Lords would never want their operations tied to something as emotional as a Terrorist act.

So, how is it that the Iranian Qod would believe a Drug Organization would be willing to help with something as international as assassinating an Ambassador in the US?

How is it when this "plan" was brought up to the Qod leadership, they saw it as a sound concept? 

My answer is, they were more focused on the end results and didn't  analyze  the plan the way they typically would.

Never the less, this is a question that will need some detailed review.

I'll get back to this very worrisome issue in a few minutes. 

Now, back to the issue not alienating Mexico.

It was wise for the US government to explain how " involved" the Mexican government was in solving this case.

Just think if the US would  have announced this operation and Mexico didn't know of it?

If the US government has to keep the Drug Lord ... Terrorist link theory to a minimum, then they have to show how Mexico was involved.

The US must maintain the " theory" Drug Lords will not deal with Terrorist!.

The fact the "go between" was a DEA paid informant will strengthen the US government's stance or at least they hope it will.

The storyline will be, " the paid informant turned the Iranian contact in because they Drug Lords don't want anything to do with them.

The fact of the matter is, he probably turned the Iranian operation in for the same reason all paid informants give  information...... MONEY and staying out of Prison.

Ok, lets get down to the HUGE issue of why???

Why would Iran take such a dangerous path?

First of all, it's not new news!!!

Iran has had their fingers in plots to kill political leadership in the past.

This time around they may have just been real sloppy in their execution.

The fingerprints on the attack in Argentina were all over the place and nothing really came of it internationally.

Perhaps the Qod is trying to make a name for itself?

Perhaps some of the mid level leadership is simply trying to climb the latter?

Maybe that would explain the official Iranian statement full support if the accused are shown to actually involved in the event.

Perhaps this is a result of the power struggle in Iran?

Perhaps this... ....... perhaps that..... and so on.. and so on.....

Here is the cold hard fact!

Does anyone think for a single second that something as outrageous as assassinating two Ambassadors on US soil would not be blessed off on by the top of the leadership in Iran?

Some are going to speculate the Iranian President may have concocted this plot and not informed Khomeini.

Here is the problem with that theory; the Qod doesn't work for the President and as a matter of fact the Cod Commander is only loyal to Khomeini and would take out Ahmadinejad in a heartbeat if Khomeini said to do so.

So, lets, for the sake of argument, say the plot had the blessing of the highest levels.

Oh by the way, that is exactly what the Saudi and Israeli leadership  is going to believe anyway.

Back to the question of why?????

On page 15 of the FBI complaint, you will notice in one of the conversations between the accused the statement is made, "it's already late"; late being the assassination of the Ambassador.

This adds yet another twist to this event.

Was there a timeline and if so, why?

The FBI and other agencies will be hard at work to prove the case in court.

The  US Administration and DoS will need to make the case on why actions should be considered against Iran and what actions should be taken.

So, who is looking at " why" and perhaps why a timeline?

Let me take a stab at why?

It appears this plot has been underway for over a year if you take into consideration how long the Qod would have worked on the concept with senior leadership before ever talking to " middle men".

That means this event predates the Arab Spring.

Why is that important?

It means this act was probably not, at least initially, designed to save Syria or keep the Arab Spring form coming to Iran.

So, back to why?

Would killing the Saudi and Israeli Ambassadors to the US in the US lead to anything but the real possibility of war in the Middle East?

Some will say how could it not?

It's one thing to bomb a building, but killing another countries Ambassador not to mention two Ambassadors who both happen to represent the mortal enemy of only one other country.... Iran, would be interpreted by the whole world as an act of War.

Was Iran looking for war with not only Saudi and Israel, but the US as well????

How insane would that possibly appear?

How could Iran ever believe for a minute the whole world would not see their fingerprints on this event?

Again..... back to the million dollar question.... Why????

Here is the problem with answering this question... there is absolutely no logical answer!!!  

Right?????

Wrong!!!!!

Here goes my answer and it's the only one I can come up with for now and that may change soon!!!

Over a year ago the Iranian government was convinced it was facing an imminent attack over it's nuclear program.

It's military and it's religious leadership was fixated with the idea of being " Invaded"!

Iran knew and knows it has absolutely no chance of surviving such an attack.

Yes, they talk a good battle, but when the door are closed and the real analysis is conducted, they know they are finished and the dreams of their Empire are gone!

Perhaps.... just perhaps... they had come to the conclusion it was the only way out.

Why wait for your demize?

Why not terrorize an already war weary public such as the US and take you chance with the US staying out of a regional war?

I know it sound unrealistic, but desperate nations come up with desperate plans.

Thus... my lead in on the history of WW1 and the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.

Now, remembering this plot started well over a year ago, the dramatic and demoralizing events of Syria and the Arab Spring could have only made this fear of a lost future all the more realistic.

Could the assassination of two arch enemies Ambassadors on US soil be the last desperate attempt to show how willing Iran was and is to survive?

For the sake of moving on with this mystery, lets assume the Iranian leadership was willing to accept the gamble of this " warning" leading to war.

" What do we have to lose"??? That could very well be the mindset.

Finally; lets look at the statement of " already being late".

Assume they say this as the last warning, why a timeline?

Assad!!!

For over four months now, Iran has known Assad is not going to survive.

Looking for someone Iran can " work with" is less and less likely given the relationship Turkey is building with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Yes, the door is closing on Syria, or at least Iran believes so!

Wanting this WW1 type of event to take place soon could simply be a matter of knowing how much longer Assad has left.

Without Syria, there is no Iranian Regional power  future... There is not Persian Empire!!

I have talked for months about Iran desperately needing a distraction.

I must admit, even I could not imagine an Archduke Ferdinand plan!!

the next few days will be not only fascinating to watch.. they could be down right dangerous.

The attached document is complaint filed by the FBI.

It was posted on CNN this afternoon.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/10/11/complaint.amended.pdf?hpt=hp_t1