Sunday, September 4, 2011
















ISRAEL FACING THE " PERFECT STORM"?



As we get ready to end the first week in September,  a month that could prove critical not  only to Israel but the whole Middle East, it is clear a "Perfect Storm" scenario could be unfolding.



Mass protest movements become cable of critical mass when they link common causes that cross over typically diverse groups.



The economic realities of Israel combined with the emotional issue of Palestinian Statehood allows the enemies of Israel to mask their objectives without appearing as the obvious antagonizer.



What Israel's enemies, namely Iran, needs is a pre September 20th environment that allows members of the UN to vote at a time of high emotions.



It is the reason Israel is preparing for violent protest starting several days before the project vote on the 20th of September.



Common people taking to the streets may not stay in those streets when the issue is Palestinian statehood, but forcing the Israeli government to step from one crisis right into the next is a clear advantage to her enemies.



The stories of the IDF arming the Israeli public with tear gas and stun grenades were no accident.



For the IDF to not deny they were taking such action is even more compelling and plays directly into the Iranian plan.



Along with the pending protest violence in Israel, we now have, for reasons confusing to many, an increasing conflict between Turkey and Israel.



I don't believe for a single second Turkey would take any action that is advantageous for Iran.



So the issue of Turkey wishing to gain an apology from Israel at this moment in time is interesting.



It has to have everything to do with the UN vote, but the question becomes how and why.



No one believes Turkey is even remotely contemplating open conflict with Israel.



Turkey has taken great strides to paint a picture of being the regional peace maker and leader in conflict resolution.



To suddenly pick a fight ether politically or physically with Israel is not realistic.



So, what is Turkey doing?



If Turkey is not going to vote in favor of Palestinian membership in the UN, then it needs to show a strong anti Israel stance now and thus buy some collateral defense come UN vote time.



Having the ability to say, " the timing is simply not right, but we must continue to find resolution of this issue", is probably the end state Turkey is looking for.



I will repeat what I have been saying for weeks, months now, Turkey doesn't want a regional war, but Iran almost certainly must pursue one.



Turkey knows Iran's options for survival are limited and so they must stay out in front of the issue of Israeli... Palestinian statehood at all cost.



Like I have been saying all along... It's the Persian concept of the future Vs the Ottoman vision.



In between these two is the ageless issue of Palestine and the Jews.



September is going to heat up by the end of next week.



The only thing that might distract the media would be Syria or the anniversary of 9-11.



Iran can control one, Syria, but the can not control the second.



One thing is for sure, by the end of September, the Middle East will be a far different place than it is now and probably far more dangerous.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14777260

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