IT JUST KEEPS GETTING WORSE AND WORSE FOR ASSAD!
Well, true to their word, the United Nations Special Tribunal on Lebanon / STL / handed down the first set of indictments today.
Badreddine seems to be the 'big fish' in the first list of names.
I say first list because the STL intends on announcing several list.
As some of the media coverage stated today, Badreddine is a real Hero in the ranks of Hezbollah and implicating him is a real hot issue for Hezbollah.
Mikati's statement today was cryptic and weak at best!
In the next day or so, he and the leadership of Hezbollah will respond.
Mikati will take the soft, 'we must do what is right for Lebanon' approach.
Don't look for Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, to be as impartial.
"It's a huge US / Israeli plot", will be the basic tone coming out of Nasrallah's mouth.
Two real questions need to be answered.
1. Who shows up on the next list of names?
Are there Syrian links?
2. What does the Sunni population of Lebanon do?
If Mikati tries to disrupt the process, Lebanon may slide into violence.
That is exactly what most outsiders, and even most Lebanese, have feared for months now.
Let's look at this event through a different set of glasses.
Israel now has two huge events potentially on their hands.
1. The second round of Gaza blockade busting ships sailing soon.
2. The potential for Hezbollah to implode inside Lebanon.
I am sure the consultation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is a hot topic right about now.
The fact that Israel has warned Hezbollah and Assad on the issue of potential actions by Hezbollah is a sign of what Israel thinks the response might be.
The STL was going to be a bad situation for Lebanon, Syria and Iran and they have known that for months.
Now that it is finally here, what is the outcome?
The Lebanese government has thirty days to respond to the STL.
I am not sure it will take that long to see how Iran and Syria try and react to the news.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011630103132763170.html
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