IT JUST KEEPS GETTING WORSE AND WORSE FOR ASSAD!

Well, true to their word, the United Nations Special Tribunal on Lebanon  / STL / handed down the first set of indictments today.

Badreddine seems to be the 'big fish' in the first list of names.

I  say first list because the STL intends on announcing several list.

As some of the media coverage stated today, Badreddine is a real Hero in the ranks of Hezbollah and implicating  him is a real hot issue for Hezbollah.

Mikati's statement today was cryptic and weak at best!

In the next day or so, he and the leadership of Hezbollah will respond.

Mikati will take the soft, 'we must do what is right for Lebanon' approach.

Don't look for Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, to be as impartial.

"It's a huge US / Israeli plot", will be the basic tone coming out of Nasrallah's mouth.

Two real questions need to be answered.

1.  Who shows up on the next list of names?

            Are there Syrian links?

2. What does the Sunni population of Lebanon do?

If Mikati tries to disrupt the process, Lebanon may slide into violence.

That is exactly what most outsiders, and even most Lebanese, have feared for months now.

Let's look at this event through a different set of glasses.

Israel now has two huge events potentially on their hands.

1. The second round of Gaza blockade busting ships sailing soon.

2.  The potential for Hezbollah to implode inside Lebanon.

I am sure the consultation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is a hot topic right about now.

The fact that Israel has warned Hezbollah and Assad on the issue of  potential actions by Hezbollah is a sign of what Israel thinks the response might be.

The STL was going to be a bad situation for Lebanon, Syria and Iran and they have known that for months.

Now that it is finally here, what is the outcome?

The Lebanese government has thirty days to respond to the STL.

I am not sure it will take that long to see how Iran and Syria try and react to the news.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011630103132763170.html

TWO ISSUES THAT SPEAK TO ONE TOPIC.... ASSAD'S FUTURE...

The first article simply reminds everyone how Israel views statements that come from their enemies.

The concept of Assad lashing out at Israel to save his own hide has been talked about for over two months now.

Assad utilizing Hezbollah to create a distraction in Lebanon in my opinion has better than a fifty.. fifty chance of happening

As I keep saying, both Assad and Hezbollah will not make a move without the blessing of Iran.

The fact that Israel feels compelled to let Assad know the price he will pay if Hezbollah does take action should not be and will not be overlooked by Assad, Hezbollah and Iran.

Israel is simply saying, "we are ready and you will pay the price".

Making the threat directly to Assad is a very clever way to get at a person who, in my opinion, lacks self-confidence to think hard about their future actions.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to take action, and Assad understands his head is on the line, hesitation could be a crucial factor.

The second story address the Hezbollah issue from a different direction.

The STL is not going to be ignored!

Hezbollah cannot wish the results away.

For the US to make the statement it doesn't matter what the new cabinet in Lebanon does, the STL will be followed up  on is just as bold as the Government of Israel telling Assad he will be held personally responsible for Hezbollah's actions!

Two hard hitting messages delivered  at a critical point in time!

One topic, Assad and what he needs to think about.

Pressure is something Assad doesn't need right now, but pressure is what he gets.

He wants to be a 'leader', well it comes with the title.

Let's see what he does.

PS. Pay attention to North Korea!!

Something 'funny' is going on over there and it may not be good.

I have always wondered about the 'relationship between North Korea and Iran.

Don't forget my theory of Iran needing a distraction!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=227061 

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/29/us-envoy-hezbollah-deflecting-attension-from-its-internal-tension/   

A DOUBLE STANDARD THAT IS MORE THAN DOUBLE!

Lebanon's current government  policy of ' No statehood for Palestinian Lebanese, even when they are born in Lebanon', is the height of hypocrisy.

Everyone knows the real story; nobody wants the Palestinians to think they can permanently stay in their country.

Even the ones that are second generation Palestinians are not allowed to have citizenship.

Not in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt ect... ect...

Why?

They will all tell you they do it for the good of the Palestinian people!!!

Ya... Right!!!

They all make the lame argument that if they are granted citizenship, they will never convince the rest of the world Palestine must have its independent state.

What they are really trying to  say is, " we don't want them here".

If you don't believe me, let me ask you a few simple questions?

1. Why are they forced to live in Refugee Camps?

            For their own safety??? Laughable!!

2. Who  has killed more Palestinians, the Israelis or the Jordanians?

            If you don't know the real answer, ask the King about his Father and the  Refugee Camps in         Jordan years ago.

The simple truth of the matter is the Palestinians are seen as the "Gypsies" of the Middle East and nobody wants them living next-door to them.

Sounds ugly, but it's true and they all know it!

Here is the funny part, in the US, a Palestinian can move here, buy a home and their kids will be just as American as anyone else.

The Middle East knows that and they hate it and that is one of the many reasons why the US is hated.

For all the name calling and finger pointing that goes on in today's world, the US is still the land of opportunity.

Oh ya; please don't try and tell me the American Indians live in Refugee Camps.

They live on their own land and can live anywhere in the country if they wish!

As Al Jazeera, I am sure they would have filmed a story about them not being able to move if this was true.

So, the next time someone says how unfair the PA issue is, ask them why they are not allowed to have citizenship in the countries some of them have been staying for over fifty years?

Ask them why they are not allowed to own a house in Lebanon or Jordan?

Stick to the truth and watch how fast the people you are talking to change the subject.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/28/mikati-lebanon-rejects-the-naturalization-of-palestinians/

ASSAD'S ATTEMPT TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER     

It appears the meeting today in Damascus was seen for exactly what it was, an attempt by Assad's government to divide the opposition.

What I found frightening was the Western media depiction of the event only being a ploy by Assad to show he willingness to 'talk'.

Assad's goal was more than just window dressing for the media.

His, or his brother's, goal was and is to divide the opposition.

Assad knows the one real weakness in the Syrian revolt is the lack of a centralized movement.

If Iran has coached him on anything it is to keep the rebellion from truly forming a allegiance.  

Assad also knows today  'stunt' can possibly go a long ways to showing the Business Class, Sunni leadership that things are still manageable.

Yep, today's event was a two part plan.

One; create division amongst the opposition.

Two; prove to the key supporters of the current Syrian government all is not lost, yet!

So; will it work?

I think the first part of the operation may have some impact.

The fact that some of the rebellion leadership refused to show up is a good sign from Assad's perspective.

How they respond to today's events will be interesting to watch. ( The opposition that is.)

 Part two of this event will probably not net Assad the results he needs.

The Sunni Business Class leadership is worried about one major issue; the Syrian economy.

Pulling these group into a Sectarian fight has been and will continue to be difficult for the opposition.

Having said that, Assad knows all too well, if these key business leaders think the economy of Syria is on the brink, and it is, then they may jump ship.

For them to do so would spell the end for Assad and he knows it.

I don't look for Assad to take this quietly if it does happen.

If you see Assad making a move on the key leaders of this group, you know he believes the end is near.

Today was an interesting day to the casual observer  watching events in Syria.

To the rest of us, today was yet another desperate attempt by Assad to hold onto power.

Did it work?

Lets watch the next few days and see what comes of this 'stunt'.

THE KEY EVENTS OF THIS COMING WEEK.

YEMEN:

What seems to be constantly lost in the story of Yemen, is the headway al-Qaeda is making in the South.

It is not out of the question the world is going to wake up soon to realize the real story in Yemen is not the condition of Saleh and his possible return to, but the huge gains al Qaeda continues to make as they take over Southern Yemen.

The military is completely preoccupied with holding on to the capital and trying to second guess who will lead the country.

They simply do not have the strength and mindset to recapture the territory lost in Southern Yemen.

Yemen is well on its way to becoming the new al Qaeda stronghold!

This is an issue the Saudi's will not overlook but will struggle to find an answer for.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011626201428809641.html  

ISRAEL:

The second flotilla issue will become a huge topic of conversation this week.

Israel knows they cannot afford the catastrophe of the last event to be repeated.

Warning the media to stay away is a very worrisome sign.

If Iran has trouble makers prepositioned on these ships, the event could get out of hand.

What Iran plans on gaining from making this event into yet another violent episode is beyond me.

How many times does the Iranian leadership have to announce they hate Israel?

I think the rest of the world has figured that out!

If Iran is looking for a 'distraction' for Syria, this next flotilla will simply not rise to the occasion.

The media may take their eyes off of Syria for a day at the most, but Assad is simply too far gone and too desperate for the media to back up now.

Still, the pending ' round two' of ships and the IDF is going to be a hot spot worthy of watching closely.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162611220564941.html 

IRAN:

I again find it completely laughable that Ahmadinejad and his 'Boss' both gave statements this week about the US and Europe being Terrorist organizations.

Of course as is always the case, the statements the two of them make are not meant for public consumption in the US or even Europe.

They play to the Arab / Muslim public so the truth has nothing to do with the statement.

I was interested in the concept of this " International Conference on Terrorism" in Tehran.

My hunch is Iran is in the early phases of trying to find a new list of 'partners' given the sinking ship Assad is sailing on.

I also find it interesting that both Ahmadinejad, commonly known by me as the ' Mad Genie', and Khamenei  both have given speeches on how the US and Europe are the real Terrorist in the world so close in time to each other.

The theory the two of them are in a power struggle is nearly a fact, so suddenly they both sing off the same sheet of music?

After watching the two of them shoot their mouths off this week, I am a little bothered by Nasrallah's statements of a possible war with Israel to save Assad.

As I said before, Nasrallah and Assad do not make public comments without getting the green light from Iran.

So, if Iran is building a case for a 'road to war' with Israel, something they would have to do if they wanted any chance of Arab / Muslim public support, then all of this may make sense.

As is always the case, Iran is the most dangerous topic in the Middle East.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/06/25/iran-supreme-leader-accuses-us-terrorism/ 

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162510031467425.html  

SYRIA:

Assad's Generals talking about their military taking losses from the so called, "Terrorist" ,  a word Assad and the Iranian leaders seem stuck on right now, is an interesting twist.

Ether Assad is attempting to explain why he is reacting so harshly or his military leaders are trying to explain why so many dead military members are out there.

How else could Syria explain the members that have reportedly revolted and been killed?

Assad's worries are only going to get worse as Turkey run's out of patients with him.

I keep saying Iran will not let Assad fall, but the reality is Iran may have to go to war in order to save Assad and Syria and I'm not sure that is a price they are willing to pay just yet.

Lebanon and the STL indictment list is going to push this issue even further and this may happen this week.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/26/5-killed-as-syrian-forces-push-towards-lebanese-border/    

STL MAKES A BRILLIANT MOVE ON HEZBOLLAH.

The UN Special Tribunal / STL /  on Lebanon announcement they may release their indictments in the next week is simply a marvelous maneuver that will infuriate the Hezbollah leadership!  

The new Cabinet formed last week at the pressure of Iran and Assad, will not have time to wordsmith some cryptic way of saying the STL findings are not legitimate.

I can assure you this has the midnight oil burning in Iran and in Syria.

Add to this brilliant political move the fact the indictments might name members of Assad's government and we could well see a hostile reaction that was not previously predicted.

Lebanon is simmering in the background of the Syrian event and the fear that  Lebanon might turn violent is not out of the question.

If this story is correct and the UN pushes the STL report before the Hezbollah backed Cabinet is able to rebuff the report, then we need to be ready for violence in Lebanon.

Don't forget the next Gaza Blockade run is coming perhaps within a week.

Between this pending event and the possibility of Lebanon exploding, Israel is going to have a very hectic two weeks.

Stay up to date on this STL issue.

It has a web site that is updated often.

I have said for several months now the STL findings / indictments / are going to add a whole new twist to the Syrian / Iran issues.

Things could get out of hand by the end of the month.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/24/stl-indictment-may-be-announced-between-july-2-4/

HEZBOLLAH'S BLUFF? I DON'T THINK SO!

Take the time to read this article!

I know I sound like Chicken Little, but for several months now I have been
saying Iran would not stand for the fall of Syria / Assad.

I have reiterated time and time again two main points.

1. Iran will look for a 'distraction' to prevent the collapse of
Assad. They know if he falls, the Iranian government is next.

                a. The size of this distraction will be proportional to the risk Iran
                is willing to assume.

2. Iran will not allow Hezbollah or Hamas to strike out on their own
accord.

                They are both strategic assets Iran rebuilt for the purpose of
                executing a second and third front on Israel if Iran has to go to war.

We should assume, for Hezbollah  to make the statements made in the article, they must have been given 'guidance, permission' to do so!

I do not believe this discussion was simply a matter of 'grandstanding'.

Let me make several points to show why the timing of this article is
troubling.

1. As is stated in the article, the reputation of Hezbollah is under
attack in the Arab public. Just look at the two stories published on Al
Jazeera yesterday.

                a. They are seen, as the US is, as being hypocritical  when it comes to the
                'Arab Spring'. A title they are not use to, or can ill afford.



2. The sudden 'agreement' on a Lebanese government last week was
probably a sign of the tension / pressure placed on Hezbollah by Iran.

                " We need you to get your act together and be ready, so.. get it done." (Iranian
                pressure to get moving.)



3. Hezbollah knows the STL indictments are coming and the old plan of
just blowing them off disappeared with Syria began to burn.

                a. The Author is probably correct, if you have been following the STL,
                when he states Syria may be implicated as well.

                b. The ability to keep control of Lebanon, when Syria is in a state of
                emergency is just another weight on Iranian leadership.

                c. Hezbollah is expected to keep the lid on Lebanon until the time
                Iran needs it's second front on Israel.



4. The Palestinians are beginning to side with the 'resistance' in
Syria.

                a. This is a terrifying event for Assad and Iran.

                b. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has their fingers in this and pulling
                the Palestinians away from the Iranian/ Syrian camp is a disaster for Iran
                and Assad. ( The 'sectarian issue is very important here.)



5. Iran sees Turkey as gaining on all fronts and a collapsed Syria
would lead to Iran making one of two decisions.

                a. Fight Turkey for the control of Syria; thus taking on a NATO country.

                                (Something Israel would love to see).

                b. Allowing Turkey to become truly the future 'regional' leader, thus
                destroying the dream of the Iranian / Persian / Empire. ( Part of the
                conflict inside Iran right now.)



6. Last, but not least, the internal conflict inside Iran.



a. The two leaders are at odds over the countries' future.

                i. One sees the next Persian Empire and one sees the Muslim Empire.

                ii. They both see the 'Arab Spring' coming!



This article and the   'threat'  it speaks to  cannot be underestimated!

The idea of this whole process not leading to a 'Regional War' is
unrealistic.

Hezbollah will not go to war with Israel without Iranian permission.

Israel gets a vote on the war being regional or not.

                Does Israel keep kicking the Iranian can down the road?

I've said it before, but I will repeat myself.

This is a very.. Very dangerous time in the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=226129

 ONE HEZBOLLAH / TWO OPINIONS.

Two very interesting articles that speak to an issue that cannot be ignored.

Hezbollah is a critical component in the future of the Middle East.

How Hezbollah shapes their future will be determined on who they are truly loyal to.

The first article practically begs Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah  to realize the error of his ways while piling tons of praise on his accomplishments.

the Author implores Nasrallah to understand the support he gives Assad is all but destroying the accreditation of Hezbollah.

It is clear the concern here is Hezbollah is heading down the wrong path with the Arab Spring!

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011619134113577322.html

The second article takes a much more forward approach to the actions of Nasrallah.

I don't know that I have seen a article written by any non Jew that simply rips Hezbollah and it's leader as artfully as this attack.

If I was the author of this story, I think I would have someone else start my car for me for the next few years!

It the word of verbal Judo, this author hacked Nasrallah to death!

Here is the simple truth.

Both Authors are correct.

Hezbollah, mainly Nasrallah, will not wake up to the fact that in the eye's of their handlers, Iran, Hezbollah is nothing more than a 'pawn' on the Chess Board called the Middle East.

The future of Hezbollah and all they believe in is meaningless to the Persians / Iranians.

Hezbollah exist for one simple reason; to step into the meat grinder of warfare when the time comes.

They are there to draw the fire of Israel  and to inflict as much damage as possible while Iran attempts to win or just survive the next regional war.

When it is all said and done, if Lebanon, or what is left of it, is destroyed, Iran will care less.  

It will become what it has been used for by Jordan and Egypt and Syria for decades now; a dumping ground for all of those Iran doesn't want living near the Persians of Iran.

One man's freedom fighters is another man's Terrorist, but Hezbollah is more than that to Iran.

Hezbollah is a large pile of meat to be shoved in front of the bullets to keep the Iranian vision alive.

Hamas is staring to wake up to the Iranian trick.

If Hezbollah does the same, Iran is doomed!

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011618103354910596.html

AHMADINEJAD AND MASHAEI STILL UNDER ATTACK:

The power struggle in Iran continues and in my opinion it is growing more hostile with each passing day.

I have stated before the Muslim clerics stand ready to pounce on Ahmadinejad and are simply waiting for the order to do so.

I still believe the plan is to keep he and Mashaei around as a safety net in case the civil unrest of the Middle East flairs up in Iran; and it will!

Having a 'scapegoat' to place out in front of the public is just what the Clerics are preparing themselves for.

They can't start this campaign against the elected President from a cold start.

They have to start the ' smearing process' now so by the time they need to toss him, the public is not perceiving it as just a cover up to appease them.

The problem is, it will be seen for being just that.

If Ahmadinejad is the one who cracks down on the pending revolt, and that doesn't stem the tide, and it won't, then the Clerics will put their plan into operation.

I've said this before, but I will repeat my theory.

Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are Persian Nationalist.

They can see what is taking place with the Clerics.

They have one option; out maneuver them.

Ahmadinejad and Mashaei have one HUGE advantage over the religious fanatics in Iran.

 The youth of Iran is far more amenable to being Nationalistic then they are following old, worn out Clerics and Religious zealots.

If Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are smart, and I have my doubts on that point; at least on Ahmadinejad, then they will position themselves as the suppressed leaders of a Nationalistic movement.

How they go about painting this picture is going to be interesting.

One initial step is to continue to be abused by the Clerics, while doing nothing more than talking about how Great Iran should become based upon the 'youth' of the country.

How all this is going to play out is far from known yet, but the game is underway and the stakes couldn't be any higher for the entire region.

 http://www.newsmaxworld.com/middle_east/ML_Iran/2011/06/21/394629.html