Sunday, April 24, 2011























THE WEEK AHEAD

Here is what I think we can look for over the next few days.
Syria:
            Assad has committed his political and strategic reserves in the past two days.
            With the regular military now being used to police major cities, it will be interesting to see how             Sunni members of the regular military respond to orders.
            If the Command and Control of these regular units comes into question, Assad may see violence  at a  level he has not witnessed yet.
            If military Commanders begin to jump sides, he will have to over commit his Brother's elite forces and that will leave Damascus open for more upheaval  
            Look for Iran to make a series of very bold comments about events in Syria to include how the            US is medaling in Syrian affairs.
            If Iran needs to seriously think about taken action in Syria, it will have to build the case quickly.
Yemen:
            All the news today seemed rather 'rosy', but I am skeptical the protestors will live  with a pledge to             leave some time soon.
            Yemen's resistance is a house divided and the UBL gang is going to have a vote on what the               future holds for Yemen.
            Bottom line; Yemen is far from out of the danger zone.
            It is more like Egypt and Tunisia in that the future may not be based on the old regime, but the       path to peace is a long ways off.
Libya:
            Key players in the world, mainly Russia and China, are exerting more and more influence on the    course of events.
            Libya can easily become the 'Proxy' war for Africa that many of us have predicted was going to   take place between, China and the US / West.
            Putin will put his two cents worth in as soon as he thinks the time is right.
            Libya is not just about Libya.
            Libya is quickly becoming about 'Africa'.
Iran:
            It's not going to be a good week for Iran!
            I am convinced they are now more desperate than they have been in the recent past.
            Syria is a total firestorm and the rooftops in Iran are starting to smoke!!!
            Hezbollah and or Hamas could take drastic actions this week.
            The question becomes where and how?
Conclusion:
This week could be one of the more dramatic periods  we have seen since the fall of Mubarak.


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