MEXICO. THE FAILED OR FAILING NATION STATE 

Does anyone read Asia Times? Well, Asia does, and that means China. Does AT typically address issues in Mexico? Not really. So, was it unusual for this site to publish a story about Mexico becoming a "failed state"? Yes, but it took a severe event to make that story worthy of the editor's approval. What was that event, you ask? Why, of course, the battle of Culiacan, that's what I call that event now. Is it Mexico's Fort Sumter? If you read the story by Manuel Suarez-Mier, it just might be. The fall of every nation-state doesn't take place at the apex of the nation's health. It almost always happens after a prolonged illness, an illness that impacts every aspect of the nation's society. If we are to trust Manuel's descriptions, and I do, then the picture he paints of such an illness is obvious. Is Mexico a failing / failed state? Let's take a look at what Manuel had to say. 

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/how-mexico-became-a-failed-state/

Embraces and not bullets:

 Do the Mexican terrorist cartels exist because of poverty and income inequality? No. they exist because of decades of corrupt and ineffective government. Ineffective. Does that world apply to AMLO as well?  Manuel nails this issue right on the head. The murder rate in Mexico will reach an all-time high this year. That's a year that has been completely under AMLO's leadership. 

Anti-systemic forces: 

How many times have I said, " The US's number one trading partner is controlled by terrorist cartels"? Manuel's opinion, a person who has covered Mexico for some time now, seems to fit like a hand in a glove with my statement. His point is as clear as mine. Mexico is not controlled by AMLO or his government. He might as well be inside a castle in Mexico City, talking to the Queen of England. They both have the same control over the countries they rule.

Native Mexicans:

Now, here is a point Manuel makes that brings up an issue I've talked about in the past. 

In the 90s, who did AMLO work with? Zapatistas? If that was your guess, good for you! " Native Mexicans. What is that anyway? Are there transient Mexicans in Mexico? The word, "Native". What an agenda loaded buss word. Anyway, AMLO was not "home" when the events in Culiacan took place. Okay, not that unusual. The fact he initially came out and stated he concurred with the release of Chapo's kid made it look like, he was at least active in the issue. Here's the problem, once he realized just how bad this event was going to be, publicly, he changed his story. Okay, not that unusual for a politician, but at a time when a fragile Mexico doesn't need weak leadership, that was a damaging stance. Off playing with the " Natives", oh ya, "Natives" that have a history of violent revolutions in Mexico. He didn't "know", but, like Manuel states, nobody got fired? 

The Mexican Teachers Union: 

Wow. Manuel went for the jugular with this part of the story. I won't go into what I know about this group, the Teacher's Union, given I signed my "life letter" and unlike many politicians in DC, I know what it means to violate that letter. Trotskyite? You bet, and then some. What fact of revolution does AMLO understand all too well? How about the reality that most revolutions start on University grounds? Is AMLO covering his bets in case the country totally falls apart? I have an even more dire question. what if AMLO is secretly pushing Mexico into "Revolution". Zapatistas and a Trotsky based union, the most powerful union in Mexico. That sounds like planning to me, and I know a thing or two about planning. Oh, by the way; comparing the Teacher Universities to madrassas, that was brilliant! Well done Manuel! 

PEMEX: 

Although Manuel touches on the issues of healthcare in Mexico, or should I say the lact of healthcare, the section on PEMEX is right on the mark. Is PEMEX now controlled by an old "buddy" of AMLO? You bet. Is PEMEX in real trouble? More than most realize. Is PEMEX vital to the Mexican economy? Draining the profits off of PEMEX has been the life's blood of Mexico's economy for decades.  

If the PEMEX story was not enough, the point Manuel makes about Mexico's electric monopoly is dead-on; dead-on as in the guy is a murder. I wonder if this guy has had a lot of suicides around him? I know, this story is amazing! Let's keep pushing. 

Banks: 

AMLO doesn't mess much with the investment, macroeconomic side of Mexico, well, not much. I wonder why? When was the last time you read about a bank robbery in Mexico? Why is it the terrorist cartels drain funds off of everything they see in Mexico, but they don't mess with the banks? Are they off limits? Just who controls the BILLIONS of dollars the drug industry generates? What makes the banks so untouchable, not only the terrorist cartels won't touch them, AMLO won't as well? How can you be a true revolutionary leader if you take a knee to the banks? Did someone tell AMLO to leave the banking industry alone? Hey, what about that "rumor" AMLO is controlled by one of the more powerful cartels? What does a revolution need? Yep, it needs someone to push the people into revolt. Banks in Mexico. What an interesting topic! AMLO can't "touch" them, but he can make the nation go bankrupt, and that is what every good revolution needs, people, losing what little they have. 

I enjoyed this article by Manuel Suarez Mier, but I can assure you, AMLO did not. Asia Times has a sound reputation in the world economic arena and painting a picture of Mexico as a failing or failed nation does not go over well in Mexico City. A failing Mexico. AMLO should be upset, but...................is he? :)    

CHILE. IT MATTERS FAR MORE THAN KURDS AND NORTHERN SYRIA. 

Before I get started on the events in Chile, let me make two quick follow up comments on Mexico. Issues I forgot to touch on yesterday. Issues vital to predictive analysis on Mexico’s status. 1. As some have stated, the “ Monkey see, Monkey do”, syndrome is in full effect. As some have already speculated, the “other” terrorist cartels could easily adopt a stance of, “wow, that worked. That’s what. We do from here on out”. By the way; a rumor is floating around the terrorist executed a soldier in Culiacan and sent the video to the military. Remember what I said about morale. Okay. 2. Protest. Now, the people of Mexico are hardworking and have low expectations of their government. Those are two real ingredients that are counterproductive to large scale protest forming. That even holds true when “others / outsiders” attempt to make those protest a reality. Does that mean we wont observe protest in Mexico over the events in Culiacan? No. Typically protest come from the youth of universities. Although that target will be focused on by outsiders, the real threat of protest comes from those who are pushed into this insurgency war with little to no support. Yes, the military. Are they professionals? Yes. Are they frustrated? Yes. Does anyone remember the protest a few weeks ago by the federal police over the issue of not wanting to join the newly formed National Guard? I rest my point. So, there you have it. My quick update on Mexico. Now, let me drive on. Let me touch an issue the US cannot afford to ignore or worse, screw up.

Similarity:

Does anything here strike you as unusual? Do you see any similarity between the appearance in these two pictures and those taken in the US? Does the black backpack stand out? What am I implying? Let me take the stance of the President of Chile. Are “outside forces” supporting the events in Chile? According to the President, and me, yes. How often have I talked about the weaponization of masses? If you doubt nations don’t leverage large crowds, then you don’t understand how the world works. What is the number one compliant by Beijing? Yep, the US and it’s NGO’s are interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs. Is it true? Yes. Okay. If you accept that last statement, then here’s another for you, and it’s an old one. What is good for the Goose is good for the Gander”. If I lost you, well, I don’t know what to say other than, I’m sorry. 

Chile. Does it matter to the US? Yes. How important is Chile to the US? Real important. More important than the Kurds and Northern Syria? Silly question, but if you work inside the land I call, “ The Beltway Bandits”, then you may disagree. A few months ago, I wrote a rather scathing post on the failed policies of the US when it comes to Central and South America, policies that have been failing for over 100 years. Folks, that’s a long time, at least in US’s perspective. Here comes the ugly statement. With over 100yrs of failed policy for the region, can the US right the ship? What if the answer is no? What if the US can’t right the wrongs? Does someone else come along and offer a new future? Simply put; is the US in the process of losing it’s influence over the region? I’m not sure the people in the US are ready for that answer. 

What’s taking place:

Why are the people, the youth mainly and pay attention to that fact, of Chile upset? Is it income inequity? That would be a simple answer, but is that the real trigger? Hint, it is if someone or some organization weaponizes the issue. Side Note: Non-governmental Agencies / NGO’s. They are more than just a tool / weapon / of the US. Think, Soros! Now, can you have an insurrection without an actual issue being the center of gravity? No. Does the economic imbalance in Chile truly form this center of gravity? Yes, but only with help and the topic of help is where this story gets real ugly. 

Who is this Billionaire President? Who support does he have? DC? You bet. Why? Because he openly stood against Socialism and all it leads to. What’s been the US’s policy in Central and South America for over 100 years? “Anybody but Socialist / Communist”. Here comes the ugly part. What’s been the US’s track record of placing, yes placing, as in election influences, those loyal to the US in power? If you need an example, you need look no further than the very nation we are talking about. Once upon a time, a pro Socialist, Communist, Soviet, President was elected in Chile; then..........he died. Suicide! No, that was before the Clintons. Does the US have a history of picking really bad, anti Socialist, Communist / pro US “leaders”? Yes, and that reality is something the US must come to terms with. Not just lip service during an election cycle, but real policy reform. If the US is to have a chance of fixing it’s relationships in the region, then a word not often used in DC must apply. Balance! 

Okay, at this point, it sounds like the events taking place in Chile are based on bad policy and outside interference. Let me tell you, that’s a real dangerous combination, and just when you thought the issue of Chile had been framed, I’m going to toss in another factor. 

The death Spiral of Socialism: 

Is this Billionaire President of Chile so insensitive towards his own people that he would let them simply starve in the streets? Would he let babies die from hunger? Would he force the elderly to eat dog food? Oh wait, those are the accusations made in the US by one political party against the other. Anyway, is this guy just a ruthless, heartless rich guy, a guy in bed with corporate USA? Let me take another approach. What did this Billionaire inherit? What was the form of government before he came to power? By the way. Was he legally elected? Yep. Why did he Become popular enough to defeat a left leaning, socialist minded movement, well, besides the influence of the US on the election?  I’ll tell you why. Socialism has a genetic flaw. Once a political party starts promising all things to everyone, but especially those who don’t have much, the disaster, protest clock starts ticking. A very wise lady once said, “the problem with Socialism is you eventually run out of everyone else’s money”. Bingo. Can you say, Venezuela? Are the events in Chile also based upon the false promises of socialism and communism? Yes. 

Chile’s Addiction: 

Socialism and communism. Not only do you run out of other people’s money, you also create a society of addicts. Do people who have had nothing get addicted to the freebies of a socialist, communist government? How could they not? When the freebie well starts to run dry, what do the people standing in line do? See the pictures of the riots in Chile from your clue. Add a few photos from Venezuela if you like. Alright. What happens when the next person comes into power and is forced to say to the people, “sorry, the well is running dry”. By the way, you don’t have to have a dry well for the addicts to start protesting. Just the rumor of the well going dry sets the junkies into motion. Is this where the Billionaire of Chile friends himself? Yes. Did he and his supporters in the US do a poor job of preparing for such a reality? The real question is, did anyone even pay attention to what was coming? 2011. Riots in Chile. Why, everyone wanted to go to college for free! Sound familiar?  Addicts. When you set no expectations other than, “vote for me”, the results can only be disastrous. 

Future: 

Now that I’ve beat the dead horse, let’s talk about what is really important. The future, and it’s a future for not just Chile, but Venezuela and most likely others, to include Mexico. Let me start by making a simple statement. If the US doesn’t find it’s way in Central and South America, it will have to live with the Chinese Navy having ports in the region. It will have to live with Chinese ports and industry being the mainstay of the economic movements in the region. It will have to come to terms with a reality of China being the caretaker of Central and South America? Don’t agree with me? Then prove me wrong. Tell me what you know of the Belt and Road initiative? Explain to me how the slowing US industrial might is going to offset the funding China can place in the Region. Think I’m wrong? The BRIC. What nation represents the “B” in the BRIC definition? Look it up! 

Will the riots in Chile lead to the downfall of the Billionaire? Hard to tell. Will the US and it’s NGO’s do something stupid to prop him up? Don’t be surprised. The symptoms in Central and South America are there for everyone to see, everyone who bothers to look. The US cab become a true partner, a true doctor to counter these “symptoms” or a new Doctor will move in. Hint, that Doctor is already moving in. Tic Tock.....Tic Tock!! That clock I referred to is running! 

CULIACAN. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MEXICO AND THE US? 

It's been two days since the Mexican government caved, once again, to the terrorist cartels. Was anyone surprised? Those that don't understand the leadership of Mexico may have been. As for the rest of us, Culiacan was the most extream example to date of the failed leadership of Mexico City. Should the military have slugged it out with the terrorist? No. Should someone have prevented the poorly planned operation from taking place? Yes. Okay, the fighting is over, for now. Now what? Everyone was quick to jump to the cable networks and give their regurgitation of what happened, but did anyone provide an analysis of what the event in Culiacan could lead to? The US mainstream media is about flashy/shiny objects that result in ratings and that means paid sponsors. Yep, they are about the $$$$$. If nobody wants to take the time to paint the picture of what Culiacan could lead to, then you can bet I will. So, let's go......I'll drive!

Let me start with the two most important issues and yes, they are in order of importance.

Morale: 

A little over a month ago, I think, I posted a story about the impact of AMLO's decessions on Mexico's military's morale. Back then, the issue was based upon small squads being overrun by the public and humiliated. The story goes, the so-called, "public" was upset with the actions of the units. Why did I say, " so-called"? Because people like me didn't believe the upset public pitch. As I stated in my post, these "so-called" members of the public were most likely paid by the terrorist cartels to pose as civilians. it was a great way to block the actions of the units while limiting how the military could react. Why did the units not resist? AMLO, that's why? If you want to know more about that story, go read my post on the Mexican military's morale; " The Mexican Military. What is taking place".   Okay, back on track. Just what is the overall morale of the rank and file of the Mexican military? I've not seen any official survey results, but I would love to. By the way, sometimes, things like that take place, but they are very....very clandestine, and with that, I've said enough! Let me make the logical assumption, the morale of the military is in the gutter. It's low from the highest-ranking member to the lowest. Some may put on a good act, but how in the world could any of them be happy with how they are being treated and supported? Are they loyal to the nation? Yes, at least a vast majority of them. Are they willing to sacrifice to make Mexico safe? Absolutely. Does leadership in Mexico City care? If some of them do, they are shoved aside by those who don't. I'll go back to the issue of vehicles to make my point. Pickup trucks. The military and the police have been left to fight 90 percent of the insurgency battles from pickup trucks.

Morale. It was bad before Culiacan. So, ask yourself; where is it now? Pushed into a battle inside the absolute stronghold of the terrorist cartels with no real plan and no true support. How do you think the unit membres felt when they were captured by the terrorist? How did military leadership react to the reality they had to let Chapo's Son, and others, go in order to save greater damage to the city? Just how tired are they of the current Tellatuby leadership in Mexico City? Morale. It's an issue and it's a very, very dangerous issue. Why? Let me drive on and I will explain towards the end.

Mexico's People:

Do the people of Mexico truly believe their government is going to make their lives better? Do they feel their government keeps them safe, you know, the basic premise of governance? Do the people truly believe Mexico City cares about the rest of the nation? Is Culiacan just another chapter in the neverending story of failed leadership? If the answer to these questions is, "yes", then ladies and gentlemen, we have a recipe for a complete disaster in Mexico. Can Mexico turn into Venezuela or now, Chile? Can the US's number one trade partner go the way of Albania? Yep, I've addressed this issue as well, and I've done so in the past two or three months.

Formula:

 
What's this formula for a nation nearing collapsed status? Most will tell you, the major factor is that  nation's economy. Is Mexico's economy nearing a danger zone? Take a look at the reviews of AMLO's 2020 budget outline and you may have your answer. Pay even closer attention to PEMEX's forecast. AMLO states it's great, but don't pay attention to AMLO's dreams. Read what the oil market forecasters have to say. Now, remember, PEMEX is the cash cow for everything the Mexican government invents. Here is the reality. The Mexican economy is not as far down the road to ruin as the morale of both it's military and public, but it will catch back up quickly the way AMLO is going.

Short Answer:

Leadership without the support of the public is forced to use its military to keep order. Leadership that loses the support of the military and the public, well, that's leadership standing at the edge of the cliff with everyone behind them pushing. 

The Future: 


Can anyone truly predict the future of a nation in crisis? Let me give you a hint. As I was preparing to deploy troops to Albania, the analysis was, that nation was in trouble but would survive until the US and others arrived and restored stability. Well, the "experts" were wrong.......dead wrong! Albania's government and society fell like a stone off a tall bridge and by the time the US military began to set up, the place was a completely collapsed nation-state, and I mean, completely!

Does the crisis that is now Culiacan indicate the pending collapse of Mexico? I and none of those like me can make that prediction. Here is the realty the people in the US, especially along the border with Mexico, must realize. The US government is not going to paint a dire picture of its number one trade partner, and that is really not going to happen in a presidential election cycle. Is there a valid IC analysis of such a threat? If there is, and I would bet there are some rather serious conversations taking place over Mexico, you can bet it will not reach the White House. But then again, if it did, rest assured the MSM would find a way to make it Trump's fault. Look. The reality is right in front of everyone to see. Mexico is heading in the wrong direction and everyone, everyone who will admit it, knows that statement to be true. Culiacan was the worst example yet, but it is undeniable. The people of Mexico are witnessing a city of over 800K, I thought it was 700, but it seems it's now 800, be capitulated to the terrorist cartels. At the same time, the rank and file of the military wonder what the future holds? The senior leadership has to be doubting the vision of Mexico City, and they are living with this doubt as they try to keep the morale of the ranks from collapsing. Did Culiacan create a window into the future of Mexico? No one knows for certain, but no one ever knows anything for certain. People like me, we work off of facts, trends, and historical data. Put these three topics together for Mexico and I would strongly recommend someone in DC / the Pentagon /  have a "plan" ready for a very bad day in Mexico. A day even worse than two days ago.  A plan. Yep, I addressed that issue as well. Just go search my blog site with the words, "Mexico and Buffer Zone" .  AMLO is Nero and Mexico is Rome. The US's number one trade partner is controlled by terrorist drug cartels. Someone tell me how the Kurds and Northern Syria is worthy of anyone's attention in DC. There ya go. My follow up the event in Culiacan. See if you find anyone else that breaks it down.

CULIACAN. WHAT HAPPENED, THAT MATTERS? 

What took place in the capital of the Sinaloa region of Mexico yesterday? If you woke up this morning are read the news on BBC and even CNN, surprisingly enough, you saw a story about a sustained fight between a terrorist cartel and the Mexican authorities. So, what was the headline of the event? AMLO ordered the release of a cartel boss, a request made to him by his Defense Minister, to hear AMLO tell the story that is. Is that the story? No. The son of El Chapo, a war criminal in my book, was released, is that the story? No. By the way, why do I call El Chapo a war criminal, because Mexico has been fighting an insurgency war with the terrorist cartels for decades, that's why. I do agree, letting this kid lose is a terrible event for Mexico, but again, that's not the real issue. Okay, let me get down to the real issue and it's one the US better, finally, start paying attention to. 

The fight: 

What took place that led to the events in Culiacan? Was it an operation to snatch the kid? AMLO, as he runs for cover, now states it was the US's fault. The US wanted him and that is why Mexican units went into the Vampire's lair, Sinaloa. One thing is for sure, if this is the truth, the mainstream media in the US will put this event on Trump's shoulders. Yep, "It's Trump's fault". Oh ya, does anyone think for a minute the Mexican Military would design a mission to enter Culiacan with what appeared to be a lightly equipped, Company size unit? This is where I through the BS flag on the theory of "going after him". Now, did someone try to be a hero? Did some new organization attempt to show how relevant they have become? Be thinking Mexican National Gaurd at this point. If so, could that have gone wrong? Does ATF and Waco Texas ring a bell? Somebody, organization attempting to grandstand? maybe, but let me push past this question as I drive towards what really matters. 

Several of the videos show the Mexican government units moving into the area. Now, when these videos where taken is a very important question. The most popular video shows what looks like a company-size unit, lightly supported, as in armored vehicles and aviation support, moving in a simi-low risk manner. Members not conducting bounding overwatch and not moving with weapons at the ready, that is an indication to me this "unit" was not under direct threat. It also appears the members have on different uniforms and again, that indicates this was not an organic unit event. Now, as important as this may end up being, for post operations analysis, it's not nearly as disturbing as what actually took place. 

The Surrender:            https://youtu.be/dhgxZl6qlT4        

Watch this clip. To hear the story, this video shows terrorist cartel members shaking hands with members of the Mexican units. Now, I don't want to believe this. As one who has been predicting Mexico's slide into crisis, by the way, that is what this event is, I hope what we are seeing here are members of the Mexican units, military and or police, who had been responding to the event and they were simply in civilian clothes. I want to believe that is true, but let me tell you why I think the accusation of cartel members and Mexican unit's shaking hands may be true. Look at the non-standardization of weapons. Yes, some Mexican units don't have standardized equipment, but let me finish. Look at the gear. Absolutely no standardization. Look at the radios. Look at the age and physical fitness of the terrorist. It pains me to say this, but it appears the accusation of the two groups' meeting is true. 

I started this section with the word, "Surrender". Is that what this video shows? the "surrender" of Mexican units to terrorist cartel members? Let me explain something here at a tactical level. If you are involved in armed, hostile operation, one with weapons being fired by all members, and one side is suddenly ordered to stop fighting, that only has one perception; "Surrender"! If the order was given to stop fighting the terrorist cartel members, then the perception of the terrorist and most of the Mexican public was and is, the Mexican government "surrendered". 

Terms:

What were the "terms" of the ceasefire; yes, let's call it a ceasefire for the sake of argument. The kid and "others" are allowed to go free and in exchange, the enemy, the terrorist cartel members, will agree to stop killing people and terrorizing the city of Culiacan. That's it. That's the nuts and bolts of what took place right? Wrong! Who left? Did the terrorist cartel members leave Culiacan? Where did the kid and "others" go? Did the Mexican units pull back out of the city?  Where is that part of this story? If "terms" were agreed upon, what took place as the ceasefire took hold? One thing is absolute. The government's / AMLO / version of this event will not come close to matching the rumors and stories that will come out of this event. You have heard me use the word embolden in the past. Just how "embolden" do you think the terrorist cartels, all of them, will become after this showdown? The Mexican government came to "terms" in order to reach a ceasefire with a terrorist cartel and in doing so, gave up control of a city of over 700k people. Think about that for a minute. 

How did it happen:

How is it Mexican military and police units were fought to a standstill in Culican? I've addressed the issue of the inadequate size and configuration of the force responding, but what else led to this crisis for Mexico? Has something changed for the terrorist cartels? Yes, the answer is a resounding yes! Only a few days ago, I posted a story on the issue of the 14 slaughtered  Mexican Police Officers. If you read my thoughts, then you know what I believe, changed. Remember the word, "emboldened"?  Do you remember my post about the morale in the Mexican military and how AMLO was ordering units to not protect themselves when civilians, so-called civilians, attacked them? Don't remember? Search my blog and you will find what I am referring to. 

The terrorist cartels are better armed and thus more capable than at any time in the past. The Telltuby government of AMLO has allowed these terrorists to gain a level of confidence they have never had before. But, that's not the most dangerous issue.  As I have said in the past few months, tactics have changed. The ambush where the 14 Officers where butchered was not a typical event. Not only have the weapons changed, not only has emboldenedness increased, but tactics have also changed and that is the most dangerous change of all. 

Guerrilla Warfare:

What conclusion did the on-scene Commander come to in Culican? Not only could he not take the city back from the terrorist cartel members, he could not hold the ground he was on. In military terms, he found himself in an unstainable position. Could he have held his ground long enough to wait for support? That depends on where his forces were, what capabilities they held organically and what "support" he could anticipate. By the time he gave his report back to his chain of command, the situation was out of control on just about every media outlet in Mexico. He was most likely asked, "what are your recommendations"? That would have been when he asked what was required of him? Was he to neutralize the violence taking place over the entire city? If so, then he would have requested a tremendous increase in manpower as well as other assets, aviation to start. What the Secretary of Defense realized was the stark reality of a deep fear in the Mexican government. They were going to attempt to take, by force, the city of Culican; the capital of a region in Mexico the government was paid or simply decided to ignore. That was a bridge too far! That was a task the government would ignore at all costs. It was most likely the on-scene Commander who informed his leadership of the "terms", terms that were probably accepted immediately. Once the government agreed to the "terms" of the ceasefire, it should have been the Commander who set the details of these "terms". Side Note: Given the level of corruption in the Mexican government, the Terrorist cartel may have had direct communications with the right authorities to make the "terms" acceptable. This is a reality the Mexican Military understands and it's a reality that may change the course of Mexico's future.   

Why did I mention Guerrilla Warfare? Let me go back to the issue of changes in tactics. We know the city of Culican is a stronghold of this particular terrorist cartel. Not only is it a stronghold, it's has a government that is controlled by the same cartel. Remember, you don't have to control everyone, just key individuals. It's a Columbian way of drug business. Once this event was underway and the word was out a key leader was in custody, but still, in the city, the decision was quickly made to make the operation too painful for the Mexican government to accept. but again, why the term, Guerrilla Warfare? I will tell you why. Historically, yes, I know not all the time, most terrorist cartels/cells/ respond by firing from vehicles or standing near the vehicles. What happens when they not only own some small village or town but a city of over 700K? What capabilities, options does the federal government have when the fighting is going to be door to door, in a city that goes on for miles? Was a lesson learned by the terrorist cartels in Culicun?  More than one my friends, more than one. Stop standing out in the middle of the street. Dismount the vehicles and fight from inside the surrounding buildings. make the event as violent as possible and hold on until the government panics. Have the terrorist cartels transitioned to Guerrilla Warfare? In reality, they have been doing so for the past several years. Is Culican an example of what the future may hold? This event was unique in a very important aspect. The city was in the heart of Vampire land. Culican is Dracula's lair. It will be hard to replicate without the density of forces this terrorist cartel organically held in Culican. Having said that, the new danger is absolute. Terrorists now understand the power of defending rather than assaulting. The standard ratio for military operations is estimated at 4 to 1. It takes 4 assaulting unit members to take out 1 defender. In reality, that number is ofter 10 or 15 to 1. What makes this discussion possible? the word, "Embolden". 

Who is Watching: 

This was and is a critical moment in time for Mexico. It will be nearly impossible for AMLO to stand up this coming Monday and give his typical morning, telltuby happy...happy speech to the press, a press that is going to keep asking questions now. " Mr. President. Who is in control of Culican? Do you believe the region belongs to the cartel? Are you hearing from the people of Culiacan? Do they feel abandon"? Yes, it's going to be hard for AMLO to change the attention span of the public and the press. As bad as that seems, a more dangerous issue now exists for the US. The whole world witnessed what took place. It may have been in Mexico, but it's in the US's "Backyard". Just how much trouble is Mexico in? It was pushed out of a city of over 700k Mexican citizens, not just some small little village in Michoacan. 

Here is something to ponder. What is it China accuses the US of? Interfering in the events of Hong Kong. 

What does Tehran wish more than anything? See the US in a crisis at home, that's what. 

Does Hezbollah have ties to the terrorist cartels? Yes and have so for years. 

Is Hezbollah desperate to find additional funds? Yes.

Would Beijing be willing to backdoor support a crisis in Mexico? Have you ever read China's concept of "Total, Unrestricted Warfare"? 

If you think none of this will have anything to do with the events in Culiacan, then go back to watching Dancing with the Stars and just try to hope bad times go away. 

The people of Mexico woke up to a new reality today. The Mexican government is led by a man who will surrender a city of over 700k people and do so as he states it's not his fault and he did it for the good of the people. 

Culiacan. It seems to have become Mexico's version of Fallujah Iraq and yesterday, Muqtada al-Sadr was released. 

MEXICO POLICE OFFICERS SLAUGHTERED, BUT WHO CARES?

How many times have I addressed the issue of Mexico's stability? Honestly, I've lost count. So why once again do I find myself banging away on my keyboard on the topic of Mexico? Because it matters. It matters to the overall security of the US. It matters to the good people of Mexico, and it matters to the men and women of Mexico's law enforcement agencies and military. Most of all, it matters to me. If you ask, " what is he going to rant about this time," then I have an answer for you. Fourteen Mexican State Police Officers were butchered in a military-style ambush by what I no longer refer to as "Drug Cartels." The cartels have a new name in my world. FTO's / Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Have I gone down this path as well? Yes, and I'm going to go down it again. 

Aguililla Mexico: 

That's where this latest terrorist attack took place, but it could have been anywhere in Mexico. Why do I say that? Simple. Because it's true. A terrorist group that goes by the initials of CJNG set out to not only attack the Mexican Police, they plotted to ambush them and carry out a mass killing. Yep, I used the buzz words for the US; " Mass Killings," maybe that will get DC's attention. Not only was this latest attack a Mass Killing, but it was also an information operation mission. How? The same way, many of the violent attacks by these terrorist groups have unfolded. Social Media. Not only did the CJNG ambush the police, but they took the time to place posters on the Officer's vehicles and take pictures as if they are on some trophy hunt. Yes, just days before the attack, this same terrorist group placed written messages in public, warning the police not to support the group's rivals. Does this give the perception these Officers were corrupt? Yes. Was that the purpose of the messaging? Yes. Are the police of Mexico corrupt? Yes, but not all of them, not most of them. Leadership. Look to leadership when you want to find corruption. Look to leadership all the way into the finest offices in Mexico City. Yes, this event took place in Aguililla, but the reality is, it's taking place all over Mexico. Once again, you may be asking yourself, "why is he on this again? If it's happening all over Mexico, then why pick out the attack in Aguililla"? Here is an answer you may not like and I know DC and Mexico City will deny.

Changes in confidence thus Tactics: 

Recently, you have seen me talking about how embolden Tehran has become. Well, I've also attached this change to the terrorist cartels as well, but this event was an indication of yet another change. Let me give you a break down of what took place in Aguililla from a tactical perspective. 

1. The decision was made to go on the offense against the state police. That in itself is not totally new, but the rest of this depiction makes the statement noteworthy. 

2. This ambush was planned and not just by a group of killers having a few Cervezas inside a safehouse. This event had the indicators of a well thought out attack; Yep, like any terrorist organization in the Middle East. Members placed in exact positions that would lead to maximum damage with minimum risk to the attacking party. Did you see anything in this story about bad guy bodies at the scene? Historically, when the Mexican authorities are involved in a conflict that results in the loss of Mexican government member's lives, the body count of the enemy is given as well. The lack of this information, enemy KIA, is disturbing. 

3. Inside information. If you are going to set up a complex ambush, you need intelligence. You need patterns of life and or, you need someone telling you when and where the target will arrive. Does this take us back to the issue of corruption? yes, but again, the level of that corruption is the real story. Who gave up these Officers? Just who was in on the slaughter of fourteen Law Enforcement members?

Alright, what do these three points add up to? What, "change" is taking place? Hit and Run. that was the tactic here. a new event in Mexico? Perhaps not, but the level of the attack and the amount of effort placed into the event is only rivaled by the reality the terrorist group publicly announced they were going to carry out such an attack. Does this indicate a change? What if I told you, the more important question is, is anyone paying attention? 

Guerrilla Warfare:

Hit and Run and attacks designed to demoralize the enemy, are those new to Mexico? If drugs were not involved and this was taking place in Columbia with the FARC, would this not be covered as yet another Guerrilla attack? Look. Things are changing in Mexico and some of us have been warning of these changes for some time now. Cartel Terrorist are becoming more emboldened. Their weaponry, tactics, and attitudes are unlike anything Mexico has attempted to deal with in the past. Aguilillia may or may not be the first salvo of a new cartel terrorist movement, but one this is undeniable, the threat from these groups is growing and the US will not be immune to what is taking place. 

Failure: 

Why does the Mexican government send the state and federal police as well as the local police out to fight these insurgency wars, that is what they are by the way, in vehicles that might as well be hauling watermelons to a market? Has anyone noticed how Mexico Cities High-Value Targets, political and privet sector leadership, travels in armored limos? Just what would it cost to have the very force that must confront the insurgents/terrorists on a daily bases able to move in somewhat secured vehicles? It's been going on for decades now? Is this not a topic the Mexican Government should address? If you answer my question with, "they are civilian Police Officers" not military units", then you need to look at what even the military is asked to respond with. Vehicles. That's just one topic I can bring up. When it comes to the topic of failure, the list of issues might make this post too long for people to pay attention to. So, why bring up the vehicle issue, it's not like Mexico City is going to do anything about this fact. Let me give you an answer  Mexico City and DC better pay attention to. 

Commitment: 

You wake up every morning, put on your uniform, say good buy to your family and walk out the door. your jog? well, it's one of the most dangerous jobs in all of Mexico and by the way, the guy who sells ice cream from a cart, he probably makes more money than you and nobody is out to kill the icecream guy. Anyway, you get to work and you know you have three groups of people you work with. 

Group one.

 Well, they are crooked as the day is long and this group has evey level of management involved. These members often act like they are out to change the world, but they also understand, at the end of the day, everyone they work with knows they are corrupt. 

Group Two. 

Group two is made up of those who are just trying to get by. These are the Officers who know the organization is infested with corruption, but they also know how futile and dangerous it has become to say something, much less do anything. Objective? Make it home!

Group Three:

This is the part of the force, an every decreasing percentage I might add, that is dedicated to making a difference. Those that are willing to give everything to make Mexico a better, safer place. This is the group that knows the corruption cannot be stopped, but they go out and do their job every day, regardless of the risk. 

Who made up those ambushed in Aguililla? To hear the terrorist cartels tell it, it was group one. The reality is, it was most likely members from all three groups, with groups two and three realizing, the minute the attack started, group one was the reason they were about to be killed. 

Once again. If you are still in the mood of, "so what? It's Mexico"! If you've taken this position and you live in the US, I have a dire warning for you. the day groups two and three are ambushed to the point they walk away or are simply killed off, then all that is left is group one! If that day comes, then Mexico will complete its journey into the darkness of Hell and the US will wake up to a crisis unlike any it has witnessed in the past hundred years. 

Meanwhile; back in DC, "TRUMP....TRUMP....IMPEACHMENT....VOTES..... POLLS.... REELECTIONS....TRUMP...TRUMP"! 

It seems the Mexican version of Nero has a twin brother named DC. 

WORLD WAR III.

 A  SCENARIO THAT SEEMS TOO REAL. 

Well, I did it. It’s out. I’ve become, “one of them”. You know, those that write books to show how smart they are or worse, to make money. The good news is, I don’t fit that mold, at least not in my eyes. Funny, that’s probably what they all say. Anyway, I’ve had an opinion on just how a true, global war might take place and I’ve had this opinion for over ten years now. My desire to put this opinion to paper started about Five years ago, right after my retirement. I will also be the fist one to admit, having an “idea” for a book is one thing, but putting that idea on paper and then pushing out to the world, well, that’s a whole different story. None the less, I did it.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. “ How are you different”? Here comes my best answer, my only answer. I don’t care about making money or fame, no, really! Not only do I not give a hoot about money or fame, I pray that I will never compared to Nostradamus. Look, my goal is simple. I wished to tell a story, a story about how the human race slides backwards, backwards over a thousand years. My goal is to make people understand that at one point in time, tribes in what is now England, would look on the ruins of the Roman Empire in England, 800 years old, and wonder, “who where these people”? How fragile has the world become? How intertwined is day to day life? How easy is it to start a process that makes the whole thing come tumbling down? That was my goal, to show just how that could happen.

I’ve said this before and I will say it again. This was not a Novel based on heroes, love stories and dramatic conflict depictions. I was not out to use the nomenclature of every advanced weapon in the world just to show the reader I could look things up on google. That’s a slap in the face to most writers on warfare, but one that aggravates me to no end. This book is a raw reflection; an attempt by one person to tell the story five years after the fact.

Do I care about making money? No. Do I need to cover cost? Silly question. Money and the lack of desire to make it is why I put this out on Kindle club members. Yes the paperback is not free, but the cost issue is once again there.

Read it. Argue with me if you like, but understand we are driving head on into an environment that will not leave us on a path to peace.  Perhaps the world was truly simpler a thousand years ago?


https://www.amazon.com/SECOND-DARK-AGES-unofficial-Review-ebook/dp/B07YP1LTYM

ANTIFA AND THE STATE OF DENIAL

Is ANTIFA a terrorist group? Is it a movement that seems to be entirely ignored by local, state, and federal government agencies?  Is it a group made up of angry basement dwellers? The bottom line, are they a danger to the nation? Well, since this is my blog, I get to push my opinion. The answer to all the above questions is yes. ANTIFA is a terrorist group that is seemingly ignored by all levels of government as well as populated by angry, often strange-looking, basement dwellers. Oh ya, I almost forgot. ANTIFA is a real danger to the stability of the United State's society. Okay, now that I have that out of the way, let me set out to prove my point. 

The History of ANTIFA: 

Does anyone remember the Anarchist that consistently showed up to protest global economic summits? Wait! To hear some tell the story, ANTIFA came about as a result of Donald Trump's "stealing" the election in 2016.  Is ANTIFA a Trump phenomenon? Not hardly. Do the left and the MSM leverage reality to continue their anti-Trump agenda? Absolutely. ANTIFA. Not a "new" movement, just the Anarchist rebranded. As a matter of fact, the whole sales pitch of anarchy comes up in their published rants. Nothing like a bunch of kids who took too many electives at the University. 100,000.00 dollars in debt with a BA in Environmental Dance! 

Who backs them:

Deep Throat, " Follow the money." You have to admit, it's a brilliant piece of advice, especially when it comes to organizations populated by basement dwellers. I know, not all the members of ANTIFA are basement kids, but it's fun to toss that rock at them. Okay, back on track. Money. Where does the money come from that allows this group to operate? How much money does it really take? Back in the day, the anarchists seemed to travel all over the world. Even back then, the question became, money. Are there groups, supporters that might wish to see the ANTIFA movement grow? Are some of these groups from outside the US? Let me give you a mixture of reality and clues. Whenever a movement begins to impact the normal rhythm of another nation's rival, that movement is almost always going to receive " help."  As the narrative of the Cold War changed, it became clear triple-digit agencies like the CIA and KGB could not support "issues" out in the open. That's when it was decided to hijack another "cover story." That cover story came in the form of NGOs. Not only did triple-digit organizations find a mask with NGO's, so did movements and not just movements. Powerful, wealthy people learned how to play the NGO game. Let me give you another "clue" here. George Soros. Alright, let's cut to the chase. ANTIFA is seen as a tool, a weapon, and more than one nation, organization, movement, fits that statement. Can I prove that statement? I bet I know people who could. Does DC know this to be true? You bet they do. So, what is going on here? Why is the US seemingly allowing ANTIFA to run unchecked? Why are they allowed to confront old people in wheelchairs as the city police stand there? Why are they allowed to attack individuals as they are leaving a political rally? The perception in the US is simple. This group is out of control, and no one in any level of authority seems to be willing to make the right move. Why? It's the question that drove me to write this post. Now, here comes the scary part; my theory as to why. 

Fear:

Are authorities fearful of taking strong action against ANTIFA? Is leadership, and I use that definition loosely, reluctant to identify ANTIFA as a subversive movement. I realize many people want the movement designated as a terrorist organization, a domestic terrorist organization, to be exact, but it's not going to happen, at least not yet. Why? Are they that dangerous? Here we go! No, they are not. What is dangerous, even frightening to the government, is the status of the nation. I told you my theory was going to be scary. 

Just how fragile or secure is the societal structure of the US? Is it ANTIFA leadership fears, or is it the overall status of the nation? How divided as the US indeed become? Has some agency with its entourage of "experts" convinced the government, at all levels, the concept of forcefully taking on a youth movement, that is what ANTIFA is,  would be too dangerous or disastrous to the country? Has someone convinced DC the US's enemies would see violence in the streets as a sign of decay? Just what perception does the government have when it comes to the overall "health" of society? Has the virus of Political Correctness paralyzed leadership? Strange statement with Trump in the White House, but then again, you just never know.  One thing is absolute. With each passing day, members of ANTIFA become more emboldened. Keeping an elderly person in a wheelchair from crossing a street? That's emboldened. 

Where is this all going: 

Is it a mystery as to why ANTIFA is allowed to be so violent and destructive inside the US? Honestly, I had the same question when they simply called themselves Anarchist. I hope I'm wrong, no, I pray I'm wrong. If the government is scared of repercussions, then the impact of this group and, most likely, others will grow and perhaps dramatically. "Follow the money." Is some agency doing their job? I honestly don't know anymore. It seems most DC controlled programs are completely ingulfed in party politics. Ya know, in the end, that statement might be more dangerous than ANTIFA.