Given the tensions that are once again rising in the Middle East, it's easy to talk about what might happen. this post today is not an attempt on my part to make that argument. I've been down that road already, more than once. What I have attached here is part of the scene setter for my book on what the next Word War may look like, how it will take place and what will be the outcome. I know I have often spoke of not supporting those who are out to push a book as they try to capitalize on some current crisis in the world. Trust me, that is NOT what I have attempted here. I started this journey several years ago at the request of a good friend and his dream of seeing me put my "Theory" on paper. As your read this, understand my fears of immature nations with advanced weapons as well as the open desire of China to show the world, "China's time has come" . What I am attempting to show you is what might take place almost any day or even any hour right now. I have finished the book and I am just waiting for my Boss's review, insert the word Wife here, before I push it over to Amazon. Do I want to make a bunch of money? Not really. Do I won't to be known as Nostradamus? Lord I pray I never will be compared to that name. But know this. I believe with all my heart this is close to how the human race could be set back a thousand years or more. No, we will not perish from the Earth, but future generations may look upon the ruins of our great civilization much as the tribes in England looked upon the ruins of the roman Empire scattered across England. as i have stated before, this account of what took place, five years after the third world war, is not intended to be a novel. it has no heroes. it has no love story. it is not meant to be dramatic or a thriller. it's the story of a military officer who tried his best to capture what happened and how it led to the downfall of the modern world. if you stop to wonder just what may take place, then my job is done. if you want to read the book, well that's up to my Boss / editor in Chief!
THE MIDDLE EAST AND
THE BEGINNING OF THE CRISIS:
Iran’s Miscalculation
A
s is the case with all
wars, this one had a point of origin. Prior to the start of the war, I wrote a
blog post about the US attack on Syria in April of 2017: (https://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com)
I had been posting on this site since the Arab Spring began, as I was one of
the many who believed that the events in the Middle East could lead to a
biblical prediction coming true. My point was this: Many conflicts over the
past few thousand years have been ignited by reckless actions. Actions that
were poorly thought through. Actions that were based on emotions and an unsound
understanding of possible repercussions. Throughout the history of war,
concepts such as Second- and Third-Order Effects or the Law of Unintended
Consequences had seldom been given the level of importance they should have
been. The events in Syria in 2017 were no different. The attack by the US on a
Syrian airbase was reckless not just on the part of the US, but also on the
part of the Russian government and the Iranian leadership, leadership that
provoked the event to begin with. When the Russian government decided to make
Iran responsible for the event that nearly brought two superpowers to war, it
became clear that the Iranian dream of becoming the next regional power were
gone. The Tsar, as I called Putin at the time, had to make a decision, and
cutting lose his Iranian puppet was far less damaging to Mother Russia than
continuing down the road to war with the US. Both nations were desperately
looking for an “off-ramp” from the event, and trading away Iran’s plans was an
easy action for Putin. It’s difficult to prove that this agreement was made,
and it’s possible that the US never knew the Russians had decided that Iran
would be collateral damage in a far more important plan. In the end, the future
of Mother Russia was the nightmare of the Persian dream. Iran would not control
their future in the region, and that placed the Persians in a position they
could not accept.
Out in the cold. That is where Iran suddenly found itself. Gone
were the dreams of the old men in Tehran. Gone was the vision of the new
Persian Empire. The picture painted was not only believable, it was true. The
Iranians had secretly convinced Assad that European Christians could not decide
the future of Syria. Not again. Just as President Trump was ready to capitulate
on the status of Assad in Syria, the Iranians realized why. Assad’s time was
coming to an end. That was the “deal” the Russians had struck with the US.
Russia would bring the US to the table on the issue of NATO in Eastern Europe,
and the US would get what they wanted, Assad out of power. It may have been a
plan that would take time, but in the end the Iranian plan for Assad was going
to be swept away. Worse yet, it seems the deal was struck and the Iranians were
not given a chance to vote. The region was changing and peace was being negotiated
without a voice from the Persians. The Russians would pay hollow homage, but
those who tracked the region understood where the Iranians stood. The Iranian
informed Assad of the Russian plot for his demise, along with a plan to make
the US and Russia’s compromise fall apart. The plot would call for extreme
measures by the Iranians, but the risk was far less than the known outcome of
the Russian / US agreement. Iran would create a new dynamic in the region, and
the prominence of the Persians would not be denied. As for the Russian / US
plan, it was simplistic and unified. Unified by the Arab League, the US, and
the Gulf Cooperative Council ,GCC, and all the while the Russians remained
publicly opposed, as that was the stance that would make the whole process
work. A charade on their part that just about everyone saw through. Iranian
backed forces were to leave Syrian soil by an unrevealed date. It was Lebanon
in 2005 all over again, at least from the standpoint of the Persians. Syria’s
future would be decided by the superpowers, and Iran was to abandon their
dreams immediately. When the Iranian leadership became aware of this concept,
the result was dramatic. Tehran was a tinderbox. With the ever-present tension
among the so-called “moderates” and the hardliners, this insult could have only
been seen as a huge, perhaps devastating setback for the government in power.
Iran’s leadership was injured and injured badly. They had gambled to save their
dreams for the region and lost. Wounded and without their historical protector,
Russia, not only did Iran’s leadership believe they were vulnerable, their true
enemy was convinced. Saudi saw an opportunity, and a young prince’s vision of
victory was almost immediately put into action. Iran’s meddling in the future
of the Middle East was ending, and the Saudis were more than willing to hasten
the process.
A byproduct of this “deal” would also set into motion the pending
crisis. The disengagement of Shia militias in Syria was a process that did not
go according to plan. Yes, the Iranians had no leg to stand on as even Assad
understood the price he would pay for insisting the Iranians remain in his
country, but, as is often the case, departure proved to be almost as damaging
as staying. There was no validated exit plan designed around the withdrawal of
Iranian support in Syria. The only thing that was truly holding the Syrian
military together was Iranian support and Russian airpower. The rumor of the
Iranian departure exposed what everyone already knew. The Syrian military was
incapable of defending its homeland. Russia’s reaction to the Iranian
displeasure did further harm to the Syrian government. Putin was not a man
known for taking betrayal lightly. The Iranians were expected to follow the
Russian lead, even if they disagreed where the Russians were taking them. When
it became clear to Moscow that the Iranians were not cooperating with the
process the Russians had agreed to, it was predictable what would happen next.
Creating a peaceful Syria or even a peaceful region was never the Russian plan.
Leaving Syria to disintegrate further was a price the Russians were willing to
pay for the desired outcomes in Eastern Europe, but watching Syria fade away
was almost more than the Iranians could stand.
In the end, Russia had what it had been working towards from the
very first day it intervened in Syria. The US had brought the one topic to the
table Putin longed for. NATO. If the US would agree to stop the spread of NATO
alliances into Eastern Europe, Putin would walk away from the Persians and let
the Middle East travel a path determined by someone else. Some were even of the
opinion that the region would finally stabilize. The Iranian threats to the
region would be gone; at least, that was the theory. As most theories go, it didn’t
hold true. Desperate to show that they could still influence the future of the
Middle East, they could decide the fate of nations around them. Iran pushed
Iraq into yet another crisis that would impact the Saudis more than most
realized. Shia militias pulling out of Syria were tasked with creating a level
of disruption not seen in Iraq since the Daesh nearly drove into Bagdad. The
Shia militias and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) easily
manipulated Iraq’s slide into violence.
Within a month of the understood, undeclared plan between the
Russians and the US, the Iranians had also turned up the heat in Yemen. It was
the events in Yemen that began the spiral into war, not only for the region,
but also for the rest of the world. Deliberate planning by the Iranians mixed
with the overreaction of the Saudi leadership led to an escalation in Yemen not
seen to that point. Few believed that the events in Yemen would lead to a
regional crisis, a crisis that only took three days to explode into something
the nations of the Gulf had not witnessed since the 1973 war with Israel.
Iran’s desperate attempt to stay relevant in the region resulted in the region
being the first casualty of what is now considered the Third World War. Again,
the speed of events overwhelmed almost everyone who tried to control or even
understand what took place with Iran. Iran wished to show its relevancy, but,
in the end, all it achieved was its destruction. When the dust settled in just
a few short days, it was obvious Iran had not only miscalculated the impact of
its actions on the region, but it had set into motion the destabilization of
the entire world. In reality, Iran had begun a process that the Chinese had
anticipated for years.
Saudi Arabia’s Overreaction
Iran’s intent in Yemen had been known for several years prior to
the deployment of Shia militant units, units that were openly supported by the
IRGC. Iran understood the movement of weapons, and specialized units into Yemen
would not go unnoticed. To Saudi Arabia, the concept of blaming Iran for the
prolonged conflict in Yemen was nothing new. What was new was the sudden
increase in support by Iran. Support that was clearly out in the open. The
coincidence of this sudden increase of open support in conjunction with the
ordered withdrawal of Iranian-backed forces in Syria was there for everyone to
see. The problem was, the decision to react to the Iranian actions were slow
and mixed at best. The Russians were indifferent to the Iranian plans to
increase support in Yemen. As far as they were concerned, transferring trouble
in the region was not part of the deal they had quietly reached with the
Americans. When the Saudis realized what was taking place, the protest fell on
deaf ears. Agreements were being made in the region, and once again those
agreements were based upon old colonial powers and world superpowers, not the
actual nations in the region.
When US intelligence was shared with Saudi on what was being moved
into Yemen, the reaction should have been an indicator of just how quickly the
event might escalate. It was clear that the ships off the coast of Yemen were
delivering Iranian weapons. What was stunning was the delivery of well-armed
and well-trained battle-hardened units. Units that had seen three years of
operations in Iraq and Syria. Units that were clearly placed in Yemen to
threaten the Saudi-led operations there. Saudi reaction to the US intelligence
should have been another indication of just how desperate they were becoming.
Saudi understood the US’s ability to track these types of movements. It was
also clear to them that the process had been taking place for days, and yet
there had been no warning. In their minds, once again, the US and others were
making decisions without the input of the nations in the area. Trust was a
concept the Saudis had grown accustomed to not relying upon. News of this
dramatic escalation of the crisis in Yemen was covered by all the major Western
networks. Speculation about what it would mean to the conflict was the hot
topic until Saudi Arabia gave the world their answer. It would mean war. A war
that would quickly spin out of control.
Two days after the verification of Iranian-supported units
arriving in Yemen, the Saudis reacted. The attack on the Islamic Republic of
Iran’s naval ship supporting the offloading of combat units shocked everyone
who was paying attention. The act was uncoordinated with the US or any other
nation that the US was aware of. The decision to attack seems to have been made
by the Saudi government within hours of the US intelligence briefing. US
intelligence intercepted the communications between Saudi military commanders,
but the typical notification process was too cumbersome and prevented a US
response prior to the act. Simply put, by the time US leadership understood
what was about to take place, the attack was underway. The end result was a
stunned US administration and nothing less than pure panic among Western and
regional news media organizations.
Social media coverage of the attack was on the Internet within
fifteen minutes of the strike. Fishermen in the area took photos of the smoke
plume and then attempted to help those who were in the water. Posted images and
short video clips depicted the event for the first several hours, and nowhere
were these images more powerful than in Tehran. A retaliation by Iran was
anticipated, but, again, the speed of the response was not anticipated. The
Iranian vessel was attacked at 8 a.m. CST, and the second attack by Saudi
Arabia took place within ten minutes of the initial attack. The Western media
headlines of open conflict between Iran and Saudi and its GCC Allies were
poorly developed, and the response of other key nations was confusing and
seemed uncoordinated. Canned words such as “we urge all parties to show
restraint in this crisis” were completely ineffective. People couldn’t get
timely information on the event from the standard media or government
statements, so they went to what they knew, social media. Within two hours,
Iranian, Saudi Arabia and the US were in a conflict that seemed uncontrollable
and the world could not believe what it was witnessing.
The Iranian Navy’s encounter with the US Navy off the coast of
Yemen took place somewhere during the second attack event launched by Saudi
Arabia. Within one hour of the event
between the US and Iranian navies, an exchange was occurring in the Strait of
Hurmuz. Restraint was being called for, but only from those who were not
actively engaged in the conflict. After the first several hours of the event,
it was clear that the primary objective of the US and its allies was to keep
this event limited to a naval operation. That objective changed rapidly as the
incident continued to unfold. It’s still not clear whether Iranian missiles
struck the oil refineries on the coast of Saudi first, or whether the Saudis
attacked the naval bases of Iran. What was clear was that this phase of the
crisis was no longer confined to the waterways of the region. Tanker traffic in
the straits attempted to follow the known protocols for a conflict in the
region. In the early stages of the conflict, those measures seemed to be
working. Civilian ships were not targeted for the first several hours. All
tankers made full speed for the safety of open waters. When the first missile
strikes took place in Saudi, the threat shifted quickly to the landside of the
fight, and many of the ships in the area were able to continue to make full
speed. That changed shortly after the initial strikes on Saudi refineries. The
accuracy of some of the Iranian anti-ship weapons was underestimated, but worse
than that, the location of Iranian boats that could attack both landside and
seaside operations had been completely miscalculated. Covert boat capabilities,
boats that were not recognized as Iranian weapons platforms, were able to
inflict damage far beyond anything that had been anticipated. The regular
Iranian naval vessels took an anticipated level of attack from both the US and
the British task force in the Straits. But, the Iranian ability to
counterattack soft targets, especially land-based facilities, was something the
rest of the world was not prepared for. Iran’s priority of effort surprised the
US, and that required time to recalculate counter actions.
Saudi Arabia had set the conflict into motion, but Iranian
leadership had begun the process that the Saudi government could not ignore.
The decision to attack the Iranian operations off the coast of Yemen was one
that propelled further events, and that was an issue the Saudi government may
or may not have anticipated. It should also be noted that this phase of the
conflict produced a reality many had not anticipated. Both the Iranians and the
Saudis had weapons in their arsenals that could do damage far greater than
their leadership realized. Trained well enough to operate advanced weapons
platforms, both sides inflicted damage on the other much faster and with a
degree of severity both had not anticipated. This strategic misunderstanding
led the Saudi government to believe that they could simply disable the first
Iranian ship off the coast of Yemen and perhaps send a larger warning to the
rest of the world. A warning on the tolerance level for Iranian “meddling” in
Saudi affairs. Whether that was their intent is unclear, but there is
speculation that the Saudi government never truly understood the potential
consequences of their actions. By the end of the first day, those not directly
involved in the conflict were demanding that the whole event be stopped immediately.
More ominously, those in the area who believed that the event would continue to
spiral out of control would not wait for their interest to be jeopardized.
Preventive actions were decided upon by a few key nations, and that set into
motion the escalation that pushed this crisis outside the Middle East.
Israel’s Fateful Actions
The fate of Syria was to be decided by the Russians and the US.
The negotiated issues were informally briefed to Israel by the US and Russia.
Israel’s concerns over Syria were simplistic. Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed
militias could not and would not be allowed to exist in what was left of
southern Syria. Even more important, the power of Hezbollah in Lebanon was to
be reduced drastically. With the loss of Iranian influence inside Syria, the
ability for Tehran to control the events in Lebanon were becoming nothing more
than a shattered dream. The Iranian plan to create a new level of crisis inside
Iraq was less concerning for Israel, but the idea of active, Shia militias
supporting a much-improved Hezbollah was a known nonstarter for the Israelis.
The US intelligence capabilities for monitoring the actions of Iran’s Shia
militias as well as the IRGC were well known. But Israel was the leading expert
on that topic, and as such it was no surprise to them when the support shifted
to Yemen. There was even speculation that Israel informed Saudi Arabia of those
actions prior to the US. Within hours of the Iranian and Saudi conflict, the
Israeli Defense Force (IDF) recommended a plan that had been developed several
years prior to the current actions. This plan called for the complete
destruction of all Hezbollah assets in Lebanon as well as in Syria. Israel
believed that Iranian leadership was heading into a death spiral; otherwise,
why would they would openly send support into Yemen? Provoking Saudi would not
be enough. To win the support of the Arab people and hopefully split the GCC
nations’ commitment, the accusation of a Saudi-Israeli secret partnership would
have to be exposed. What was then underway in Saudi and Iran would lead to Iran
lashing out with the most effective tool they had, Hezbollah. Israel would not
wait for Iranian backed missiles to rain down on them. The IDF would enter the
fight with Iran, not as the secret partner of Saudi but as the loyal ally of
the US. A partner the US wanted desperately to leave out of the conflict, given
that the US truly believed the event could be stabilized within a few days.
In the early morning hours of the second day, IDF raids into
Lebanon destroyed the hope of a limited conflict. The Iranians had what they
wanted, a battle cry of betrayal. A betrayal by the custodian of the two holy
mosques. The picture they so desperately wanted the world to see, a unity of
Israel and the GCC, was there. But the Iranians realized too late that this
unity didn’t matter. Even more importantly, it didn’t matter to the Arab
population in general. As they watched the crisis quickly encompass nations
outside the region, the fear of what was taking place left no room for anger
based on betrayal. The ability to communicate in the region, at least with
respect to public communication, was lost after the third day. What the people
of Egypt thought compared to what the people of Jordan or Saudi thought never
mattered.
Israel’s actions in Lebanon were more than dramatic. The events of
the first day were stunning enough, but the strikes on Hezbollah by the IDF
came without warning and at a tempo that let everyone know the actions of the
IDF, this time, were unlike any in the recent past. The ability of the Israel
military to mobilize and fight at the same time was the byproduct of years of
deliberate planning and training. The telltale signs of mobilization that
Hezbollah had anticipated and even counted on didn’t take place. A concept of
initiating military operations with little or no warning, a process known as
“Cold Start”, was not an IDF brainchild, but they had perfected it to a level
unseen anywhere else in the modern world. Southern Lebanon was a warzone in a
matter of minutes, and the strikes in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley were nearly
seamless with the initial strikes into southern Lebanon. Reaction to the
Israeli attacks on Hezbollah strongholds only added to the hysterical reporting
coming in from all over the region.
